Carnival to Dump Six Ships

[molecrochip]

4 minutes ago, Jack McGowan said:

I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a major shake up of where ships are deployed for certain cruise lines. Princess have already amended their Europe and Alaska seasons for 2021, surprisingly in favour of the UK with Regal coming to Southampton in place of Grand Princess

 

I question whether Grand Princess could be for the chop. She had bad handling from the start and had her aft lounge removed. The other two ships built in her exact image are off to P&O Australia. The other grand class ships had their aft lounge moved or an extra deck added.

[Jack McGowan]

Just now, molecrochip said:

 

I question whether Grand Princess could be for the chop. She had bad handling from the start and had her aft lounge removed. The other two ships built in her exact image are off to P&O Australia. The other grand class ships had their aft lounge moved or an extra deck added.

Yes this is a possibility. I would say maybe for P&O Australia but I’m wondering if they have high enough passenger numbers to transition to three Grand class ships from the smaller ships they currently have. Obviously the other options is a sale/scrap

[tring]

36 minutes ago, DS_Dean said:

It sure seems like it would make sense. Regular Southampton trips may also allow for people from governing bodies to embark and observe the proposed revised layouts. 

 

Could be being used to demonstrate to Government, PHE people as to how layouts and methods could work in practice and hence assist with their discussions.  Must be difficult to discuss that sort of thing without actually seeing it, especially for non cruisers.

[molecrochip]

1 minute ago, Jack McGowan said:

Yes this is a possibility. I would say maybe for P&O Australia but I’m wondering if they have high enough passenger numbers to transition to three Grand class ships from the smaller ships they currently have. Obviously the other options is a sale/scrap

They could move P&O Australia to a standard fleet and release Pacific Explorer to be sold. Pacific Explorer being the same class ship as Oceana. This would make sense if they are removing Princess or Cunard capacity from Australia.

[Jack McGowan]

1 minute ago, molecrochip said:

They could move P&O Australia to a standard fleet and release Pacific Explorer to be sold. Pacific Explorer being the same class ship as Oceana. This would make sense if they are removing Princess or Cunard capacity from Australia.

What do you mean standard fleet? I wouldn’t be surprised if none of the current P&O AUS enter back into service with them, and maybe they’ll have the grand class ships for when they start back up 

[tring]

17 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Which suggests that Round the World cruises are a thing of the past, certainly for the next few years 

 

Would it really be a few years as we should hopefully have a vaccine within a year or so, perhaps earlier if the Oxford one comes up trumps?  We would like to resume some cruising when a vaccine is available, but would not want to do mundane trips to the Med or Fjords.  Part of a longer cruise would have much more appeal.

 

I do realise demand would likely be lower though so perhaps more like a two month voyage with more change overs than a standard world cruise.  Perhaps just me hoping for that though.

[molecrochip]

3 minutes ago, Jack McGowan said:

What do you mean standard fleet? I wouldn’t be surprised if none of the current P&O AUS enter back into service with them, and maybe they’ll have the grand class ships for when they start back up 

Its already been announced that Pacific Aria and Pacific Dawn are likely to leave earlier than planned as both Golden Princess and Star Princess are moving across to become Pacific Adventure and Pacific Encounter earlier than planned. I don't think they are now planned to re-enter service with Princess.

[wowzz]

1 minute ago, tring said:

 

Would it really be a few years as we should hopefully have a vaccine within a year or so, perhaps earlier if the Oxford one comes up trumps?  We would like to resume some cruising when a vaccine is available, but would not want to do mundane trips to the Med or Fjords.  Part of a longer cruise would have much more appeal.

 

I do realise demand would likely be lower though so perhaps more like a two month voyage with more change overs than a standard world cruise.  Perhaps just me hoping for that though.

Personally I can't see a vaccine anytime soon, and certainly not early enough to save the 2021 Worldie.  

If ( and it's a very big if) a vaccine was available during the course of 2021, I'm not sure how widely available it would be for a 2022 Worldie.

So, 2023 at the earliest, assuming that there are any ships still left.

[tring]

10 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Personally I can't see a vaccine anytime soon, and certainly not early enough to save the 2021 Worldie.  

If ( and it's a very big if) a vaccine was available during the course of 2021, I'm not sure how widely available it would be for a 2022 Worldie.

So, 2023 at the earliest, assuming that there are any ships still left.

 

Agreed 2021 is a total non starter and a big one not going to sell too well for the following year, but that makes two years - perhaps we just have a different understanding of the word "few".  As we have now hit the big 70, we do not want to put potential plans on hold too long 🙂

 

There was a suggestion on these boards recently (by someone with potential knowledge) that the Oxford one is looking optimistic, so given it is already in production by Astro Zeneca (with Government support) could even be available in reasonable amounts before the end of this year.

Edited July 10, 2020 by tring

[wowzz]

Couple of things that also struck me from today's briefing.

The average age of cruisers for future bookings is 45. Seems like Carnival is doing well in future proofing the cruise market. No wonder P&O (Carnival) are not too worried about the opinions of older cruisers. 

Secondly, they said that future bookings on world cruises were weak,  as people were not prepared to commit to longer  cruise sectors in the current environment.  I wonder if world cruises might disappear for a while, until things return to some sort of normality.

[Jack McGowan]

13 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Its already been announced that Pacific Aria and Pacific Dawn are likely to leave earlier than planned as both Golden Princess and Star Princess are moving across to become Pacific Adventure and Pacific Encounter earlier than planned. I don't think they are now planned to re-enter service with Princess.

Surprising that CMV are taking these early, I thought that there financial position was pretty bad. Unless of course they have pulled out and the ships are going for scrap 

[tring]

24 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

Its already been announced that Pacific Aria and Pacific Dawn are likely to leave earlier than planned 

 

How does that affect the plan for Pacific Dawn to start sailing as Amy Johnson for CMV next spring.  Do you know if she is still headed that way? 

 

Pacific Aria is due to go to their German arm as I understand .

Edited July 10, 2020 by tring

[molecrochip]

14 minutes ago, Jack McGowan said:

Surprising that CMV are taking these early, I thought that there financial position was pretty bad. Unless of course they have pulled out and the ships are going for scrap 

The other option is that if Princess dont need the capacity for Golden and Star Princess, then moving them now maybe operationally prudent. You then just lay-up the two ships you're not going to use again, before they go to CMV.

[Jack McGowan]

8 minutes ago, molecrochip said:

The other option is that if Princess dont need the capacity for Golden and Star Princess, then moving them now maybe operationally prudent. You then just lay-up the two ships you're not going to use again, before they go to CMV.

Yes very true, could work. I think the only grand classes that will be being moved around (at the moment) will be the pre (or around) 2000 ones. 

[AndyMichelle]

7 hours ago, wowzz said:

Couple of things that also struck me from today's briefing.

The average age of cruisers for future bookings is 45. Seems like Carnival is doing well in future proofing the cruise market. No wonder P&O (Carnival) are not too worried about the opinions of older cruisers. 

Secondly, they said that future bookings on world cruises were weak,  as people were not prepared to commit to longer  cruise sectors in the current environment.  I wonder if world cruises might disappear for a while, until things return to some sort of normality.

The sensible thing would be to keep all ships fairly close to home for a while, doing short cruises say 4-7 nights as I think more people would take that risk and if problems did arise, you haven't got a 30 day journey home. 

If you all board in the UK, are not more than 1 day away from home and visiting 'safer' countries, the risk of problems is greatly reduced. 

I can see itinerary changes afoot.. 

Andy 

[davecttr]

1 hour ago, AndyMichelle said:

The sensible thing would be to keep all ships fairly close to home for a while, doing short cruises say 4-7 nights as I think more people would take that risk and if problems did arise, you haven't got a 30 day journey home. 

If you all board in the UK, are not more than 1 day away from home and visiting 'safer' countries, the risk of problems is greatly reduced. 

I can see itinerary changes afoot.. 

Andy 

Indeed

• Restart expected to be Aida then Costa Europe based upon low incidence of Covid-19
• Over 1,000 bookings in initial day of restart sailings being on-sale.
• Restart may be restricted to specific nationalities. Normally the cruises sail with
  • Aida: 95% German
  • Carnival: 92% American
  • Costa Europe: 80% Continental Europe (mainly Italian/Spanish)
  • P&O: 98% British
  • P&O Australia: 99%+ Australian & New Zealand.

which suggests short cruises from Southampton, maybe only up to 7 nights. Nothing very scenic until the Norway summer season starts and then that depends on whether the Norwegians want a giant cruise ship arriving. Could Iona do a shortened winter season to the Canaries as that would involve 12 nighters?

[AndyMichelle]

5 minutes ago, davecttr said:

Indeed

• Restart expected to be Aida then Costa Europe based upon low incidence of Covid-19
• Over 1,000 bookings in initial day of restart sailings being on-sale.
• Restart may be restricted to specific nationalities. Normally the cruises sail with
  • Aida: 95% German
  • Carnival: 92% American
  • Costa Europe: 80% Continental Europe (mainly Italian/Spanish)
  • P&O: 98% British
  • P&O Australia: 99%+ Australian & New Zealand.

which suggests short cruises from Southampton, maybe only up to 7 nights. Nothing very scenic until the Norway summer season starts and then that depends on whether the Norwegians want a giant cruise ship arriving. Could Iona do a shortened winter season to the Canaries as that would involve 12 nighters?

Would I go on a cruise in the near future to somewhere safe, from Southampton for a shortish period... Yes. 

Would I join a long cruise or fly across the world to join a ship in the near future... No. 

Apart from potential health risks, we also might not like the new procedures, so better to find out on a shorter cruise close to home.. 

Makes perfect sense to me. 

Andy 

[No pager thank you]

12 minutes ago, davecttr said:

Indeed

• Restart expected to be Aida then Costa Europe based upon low incidence of Covid-19
• Over 1,000 bookings in initial day of restart sailings being on-sale.
• Restart may be restricted to specific nationalities. Normally the cruises sail with
  • Aida: 95% German
  • Carnival: 92% American
  • Costa Europe: 80% Continental Europe (mainly Italian/Spanish)
  • P&O: 98% British
  • P&O Australia: 99%+ Australian & New Zealand.

which suggests short cruises from Southampton, maybe only up to 7 nights. Nothing very scenic until the Norway summer season starts and then that depends on whether the Norwegians want a giant cruise ship arriving. Could Iona do a shortened winter season to the Canaries as that would involve 12 nighters?

We are supposed to be on Iona for 14 nights round the Canaries, to and from Southampton.  The itinerary wouldn't be viable for 7 nights.  However, she could (in theory) do Christmas markets style route, if the conditions outlined materialises?

 

Iceland, Scotland and Ireland (and possibly the Faroes) could be an alternative for the smaller ships if the wish is to keep them closer to home.

[grapau27]

1 hour ago, AndyMichelle said:

The sensible thing would be to keep all ships fairly close to home for a while, doing short cruises say 4-7 nights as I think more people would take that risk and if problems did arise, you haven't got a 30 day journey home. 

If you all board in the UK, are not more than 1 day away from home and visiting 'safer' countries, the risk of problems is greatly reduced. 

I can see itinerary changes afoot.. 

Andy 

Cruising around Britain and Ireland would be a good start for 7 night cruises.

[terrierjohn]

10 hours ago, molecrochip said:

Having crunched the numbers, there were due to be 8 deliveries over 2020/2021 excluding Seabourn. Arnold Donald said this would now be 2020: 2, 2021: 3. He then stated total deliveries in 2022 will be 3. That makes 8.

 

Whilst not explicitly stated, that suggests that no ships originally scheduled for 2022 will be delivered before 2023. That would mean delays to the new Cunard ship and Gala2.

Not unexpected though Moley, all cruise lines are going to find it hard to fill existing ships, even after the expected cull, so delaying new builds was inevitable.

[AndyMichelle]

25 minutes ago, grapau27 said:

Cruising around Britain and Ireland would be a good start for 7 night cruises.

I would go Graham

Andy 

[terrierjohn]

10 hours ago, tring said:

 

If Azura, or perhaps Ventura does go to Princess, for instance, perhaps that could be a way of disposing of a certain name and the name Diamond comes to mind.  Does not appear to be the oldest of the class, but gets rid of a lot of publicity which would be better buried.  Or could transfer to another cruise line and hence given a new name.

I would sail on Diamond Princess without any qualms, she will most likely be the safest ship in the Princess fleet, and her and her Sapphire sister are the best of the grand class.

[molecrochip]

1 hour ago, No pager thank you said:

We are supposed to be on Iona for 14 nights round the Canaries, to and from Southampton.  The itinerary wouldn't be viable for 7 nights.  However, she could (in theory) do Christmas markets style route, if the conditions outlined materialises?

 

Iceland, Scotland and Ireland (and possibly the Faroes) could be an alternative for the smaller ships if the wish is to keep them closer to home.

If community transmission remains low in the Canaries, I expect this cruise to happen. At worst, a couple of ports could be replaced by technical stops where passengers cant disembark.

[grapau27]

17 minutes ago, AndyMichelle said:

I would go Graham

Andy 

👍Me too.

[tring]

3 hours ago, AndyMichelle said:

The sensible thing would be to keep all ships fairly close to home for a while, doing short cruises say 4-7 nights as I think more people would take that risk and if problems did arise, you haven't got a 30 day journey home. 

If you all board in the UK, are not more than 1 day away from home and visiting 'safer' countries, the risk of problems is greatly reduced. 

I can see itinerary changes afoot.. 

Andy 

I agree entirely in the short term, until a vaccine is available for all - worldwide.  The EU Gateway Healthy Gateways guidance mentions that, so not really negotiable.

 

I can see this will make a difference for any long cruises early next year, but am not convinced it will progress to a year later and do not believe they will get enough customers for those sort of short cruises in the longer term.  P&O are unusual c.f. other nationalities as the Brits book very early and the future cruises and prices good at launch, so with FCC bookings will be booked more heavily than other Carnival brands, so silly not to progress with the same cruises, possibly with some minor tweaks which would not be considered a significant change.

Edited July 11, 2020 by tring