Liquidity, latest on how long NCL can last...

[oteixeira]

25 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

NCL might survive if they drop their final payment date to 30 days. No way will they survive with the amount of cancellations that will continue into next year due to the ridiculous 4 month mandatory final payment date. Even as bad as people will want to go or even plan to go that ridiculous policy will scare 90% of cruisers away. Nobody in their right mind would hand over thousands that far in advance anymore. 

If this was an issue for their future cruise bookings I am sure they would consider lowering it (not to 30 days, way to many last minute cancellations that would mess up their bottom line too much).  That being said I am perfectly happy paying off my cruises because if they get cancelled I would just spend the money on another cruise, so why not take it at 125% credit going forward?  There are a lot of folks that think like me as well.

 

Orlando

[tallnthensome]

1 minute ago, oteixeira said:

If this was an issue for their future cruise bookings I am sure they would consider lowering it (not to 30 days, way to many last minute cancellations that would mess up their bottom line too much).  That being said I am perfectly happy paying off my cruises because if they get cancelled I would just spend the money on another cruise, so why not take it at 125% credit going forward?  There are a lot of folks that think like me as well.

 

Orlando

At this point and considering NCL’s cash position and bleak outlook I guarantee there are few now that think like you..... 125% cruise credit on a cruise that is 50% higher at a later date is no deal and that’s what they have done.  Keep gambling, eventually you’ll get zero return on your free interest loan to them . Bad decision .

[oteixeira]

23 minutes ago, tallnthensome said:

At this point and considering NCL’s cash position and bleak outlook I guarantee there are few now that think like you..... 125% cruise credit on a cruise that is 50% higher at a later date is no deal and that’s what they have done.  Keep gambling, eventually you’ll get zero return on your free interest loan to them . Bad decision .

OK, I get it, you are a glass half empty kind of person.  I will choose to be the opposite, have a great day!

[BermudaBound2014]

On 7/22/2020 at 8:45 AM, oteixeira said:

People are always arguing about how long we can go before we HAVE to have cruising for our favorite company to survive.  I was reading a piece this morning from yahoo finance today that had an analyst that lowered projected price points on all 3 major stocks but had this to say about the latest cash raised and how long NCL can go.  Seems to me this is pretty good news for anyone holding stock, since I think most can agree we should have some sailing by the end of next year.  BTW, Carnival was estimated as good until July, even with all the ships sold.

 

Norwegian plans to use the $1.4 billion in proceeds from the debt and equity offering it announced last week to pay down its $675-million revolver, Didora said.  With beefed-up liquidity of $3 billion, a cash burn rate of $120 million to $160 million per month and an estimated $35 million per month in cash refunds, the analyst said he expects Norwegian's liquidity to last through November 2021.  This estimate assumes continued suspension of cruises and no improvement in cash refunds.

 

 

Based on the numbers I'm reading, I don't expect NCL will last until November 2021. I would never place any deposit with this company. I have a next cruise and, unfortunately, am very prepared to lose it.

 

Of course, it should go without saying that this is a public forum and, as such, everything posted is just the mere opinion of the author.  I sincerely hope I'm wrong because I do believe that NCL has an important place in the industry.

[mscdivina2016]

1 hour ago, oteixeira said:

Steve,

 

   Just to run this thread out, you think people will be more afraid of the vaccine than the disease?   I think there are plenty of people that will line up for the vaccine, me included, as I have a handicapped son who is in the high risk category and I want him to be safe.

 

Orlando

Orlando,

 

I think it depends on your demographics.

 I am high risk and I take a variety of meds and I would rather sail with out it and have an antidote if I contracted it and became severe.

  I personally do not want to be a test subject and would wait to see how it rolls out and then make a decision.

Steve

[oteixeira]

2 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Based on the numbers I'm reading, I don't expect NCL will last until November 2021. I would never place any deposit with this company. I have a next cruise and, unfortunately, am very prepared to lose it.

 

Of course, it should go without saying that this is a public forum and, as such, everything posted is just the mere opinion of the author.  I sincerely hope I'm wrong because I do believe that NCL has an important place in the industry.

I am curious, at the high end the numbers you read are a total of $200 million a month.  They have 3B to ride it out.  So the basic math would put us at 15 months of liquidity, or....end of October 2021, which is exactly what the article says.   

[oteixeira]

Just now, mscdivina2016 said:

Orlando,

 

I think it depends on your demographics.

 I am high risk and I take a variety of meds and I would rather sail with out it and have an antidote if I contracted it and became severe.

  I personally do not want to be a test subject and would wait to see how it rolls out and then make a decision.

Steve

Steve,

 

   That is fair, but this is a virus, there won't every be a "cure" or "antidote", just like a cold, flu, SARS, MRSA, etc.

Orlando

[BermudaBound2014]

1 hour ago, oteixeira said:

I am curious, at the high end the numbers you read are a total of $200 million a month.  They have 3B to ride it out.  So the basic math would put us at 15 months of liquidity, or....end of October 2021, which is exactly what the article says.   

 

Again, just my opinion, but I believe the company will consider many other possibilities long before October 2021. It's not in their best interest to play this game to the n'th degree. Some call that negative. I call it realistic. In either case, I do sincerely hope I am wrong and wish you happy sailing whenever (and with whomever) that is! :)

[oteixeira]

13 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Again, just my opinion, but I believe the company will consider many other possibilities long before October 2021. It's not in their best interest to play this game to the n'th degree. Some call that negative. I call it realistic. In either case, I do sincerely hope I am wrong and wish you happy sailing whenever (and with whomever) that is! 🙂

Cool, I understand.  My opinion is they will be cruising way before then (if not here then elsewhere) and be making enough cash to keep them going into the future.  

[Barb Nahoumi]

NCL is advertising some cruises toward the end of 2020, and into 2021.  I hope that they can sail.

 

My cruise consultant called to book us, but we didn't do it yet.   As seniors, we don't want to deal with restrictions, such a a letter from our doctor.  Whether we decide to take the chance should be up to us, not our doctor.  

[margoula]

3 hours ago, tallnthensome said:

NCL might survive if they drop their final payment date to 30 days. No way will they survive with the amount of cancellations that will continue into next year due to the ridiculous 4 month mandatory final payment date. Even as bad as people will want to go or even plan to go that ridiculous policy will scare 90% of cruisers away. Nobody in their right mind would hand over thousands that far in advance anymore. 

Yeah that final payment 120 days is a real bummer.....we cancelled our October 2020 prior to the final payment date because we were afraid NCL wouldn’t make it and we had over $2000 already invested and we’re afraid to give them an additional $1900+. We were lucky and received our refund quickly. I hope cruising returns safely and quickly.

[dexddd]

13 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Based on the numbers I'm reading, I don't expect NCL will last until November 2021. I would never place any deposit with this company. I have a next cruise and, unfortunately, am very prepared to lose it.

 

Of course, it should go without saying that this is a public forum and, as such, everything posted is just the mere opinion of the author.  I sincerely hope I'm wrong because I do believe that NCL has an important place in the industry.

Other than PP status, all we have invested is $150 CN.  Have never felt better.  Now if I could get my money back from MSC I'd really feel good.

[4774Papa]

14 hours ago, pmd98052 said:

Problem is even once available there won’t be enough doses for a long time. Healthcare staff, high risk groups, and essential workers will get first access. Probably 6 to 12 months after initial doses or more before most people get a shot.

COVID-19 vaccine progress is amazing.  Three are in stage 3 and others close.

https://covidvax.news/progress/

 

The US Government is funding it all and has already contracted for 100 million doses.

https://fox59.com/news/us-signs-contract-with-pfizer-for-first-100-million-covid-19-vaccine-doses-aims-for-delivery-by-december/

 

 

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/07/15/covid-19-vaccine-progress-behind-wall-streets-latest-bull-run/#5ce841213ebd

 

[ray98]

On 7/22/2020 at 9:52 AM, PelicanBill said:

 

 

Second, We'll see "going concern" on the SEC filings again. That could weaken investment.

 

 

Huh?  That is exactly what you want to see. 

[ray98]

18 hours ago, CruiseMH said:

 

They haven`t found a real effective vaccine against the flu in 30 years, so i severely doubt that they will find something against corona which will really help.

 

Two different things.  Influenza is a family of viruses that are in a constant state of mutation.  SARS-COV-2 is a specific virus in the Coronavirus family that has not yet been proven to mutate.

[PelicanBill]

9 minutes ago, ray98 said:

Huh?  That is exactly what you want to see. 

 

I am confused by this. What do you mean?  When this becomes required, investor confidence is shaken and ability to finance or refinance gets weak. It can accelerate the company toward Chapter 11.

 

18 hours ago, CruiseMH said:

 

They haven`t found a real effective vaccine against the flu in 30 years, so i severely doubt that they will find something against corona which will really help.

 

"Real effective" no. But modestly effective, yes. If I get the seasonal flu, it will be milder if I have the vaccine.  That would be acceptable to me with Covid - a mild case isn't going to kill me. But without a vaccine the statistics say if I get Covid, I have a 25% chance to die with my age and health conditions. That leaves me in lockdown until there is a vaccine or better treatment that reduces that statistic to something more like 1%.

[DCGuy64]

17 hours ago, oteixeira said:

If this was an issue for their future cruise bookings I am sure they would consider lowering it (not to 30 days, way to many last minute cancellations that would mess up their bottom line too much).  That being said I am perfectly happy paying off my cruises because if they get cancelled I would just spend the money on another cruise, so why not take it at 125% credit going forward?  There are a lot of folks that think like me as well.

 

Orlando

I agree with Orlando. The cruise industry has had its ups and downs for many decades, sometimes cruise line stocks rise, sometimes they fall. There's been some consolidation, but there are also new companies starting up. The travel and tourism industries are huge and many countries across the world rely on them for their economies. That isn't going to change. For this reason, and the amount of reserves the major cruise lines have, I am confident in saying that NCL will get through this crisis just fine.

[JamieLogical]

14 hours ago, margoula said:

Yeah that final payment 120 days is a real bummer.....we cancelled our October 2020 prior to the final payment date because we were afraid NCL wouldn’t make it and we had over $2000 already invested and we’re afraid to give them an additional $1900+. We were lucky and received our refund quickly. I hope cruising returns safely and quickly.

 

I also agree about the 120 day final payment. We are scheduled to sail in January. If the final payment period isn't shortened, we will likely cancel when it's due in September. Too much uncertainty over what could happen in the course of 4 months and I wouldn't want to have more money on the line with NCL. They already have a lot of our money tied up right now in FCC.

[oteixeira]

7 minutes ago, JamieLogical said:

 

I also agree about the 120 day final payment. We are scheduled to sail in January. If the final payment period isn't shortened, we will likely cancel when it's due in September. Too much uncertainty over what could happen in the course of 4 months and I wouldn't want to have more money on the line with NCL. They already have a lot of our money tied up right now in FCC.

Why not make the final payment using your FCC and then you have no "new" money tied up, and still could cruise if the ship goes?

[JamieLogical]

2 minutes ago, oteixeira said:

Why not make the final payment using your FCC and then you have no "new" money tied up, and still could cruise if the ship goes?

 

We likely will, but our current FCC doesn't cover the full cost of the sailing. Also, we still have an outstanding issue with some missing FCC and I definitely don't want to give NCL any more money until that is resolved.

[BermudaBound2014]

4 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

COVID-19 vaccine progress is amazing.  

 

 

I see a vaccine as a critical hurtle to resuming cruising. However; I suspect an equal threat to the industry, and especially the smallist fish in the big 3 pond (NCL), is the long term damage done to public perception.  Sure there are die-hard fans, like those of us on CC, who will still cruise. However; we represent a very small minority of the potential cruising population.  IMO; NCL will need to pump serious dollars into changing the perception that cruise ships are 'floating petri dishes' if they have any hope of surviving as a stand alone.  I seriously hope I'm wrong. 

Edited July 24, 2020 by BermudaBound2014

[ray98]

34 minutes ago, PelicanBill said:

 

I am confused by this. What do you mean?  When this becomes required, investor confidence is shaken and ability to finance or refinance gets weak. It can accelerate the company toward Chapter 11.

 

 

I think we are talking about two different things.  I am talking about the Going Concern principle which is not a bad thing and you appear to be talking about a 'substantial doubt' warning.

[luv2kroooz]

Yes, and NCL has significantly damaged it's relationship and abandoned passengers due to their poor customer service. I could see Royal swallowing NCL up if things don't improve. I don't believe there is enough demand for all the cruise lines to survive in their current form. It's exactly why we see Carnival scrapping ships across multiple brands. There is significant oversupply of cabins and not enough demand to fill those cabins. And more ships and new cruise lines, MSC/Virgin entering the market.

[PelicanBill]

10 minutes ago, ray98 said:

 

I think we are talking about two different things.  I am talking about the Going Concern principle which is not a bad thing and you appear to be talking about a 'substantial doubt' warning.

Ah. Actually no, I was talking about Going Concern, which my company had to file late last year as well. And it created a financial crunch for us on our ability to complete some refinancing as we were immediately downgraded in credit rating and it created unwanted volatility in trading. And a lot of unwanted press, which immediately begins speculation about heading toward Chapter 11.  And as it turns out we resolved our situation, paid off debt, and are enabled to remove the going concern with our next filing. But we can say that until we are blue in the face, it will take a year to heal from it.

[hallux]

1 minute ago, PelicanBill said:

Ah. Actually no, I was talking about Going Concern, which my company had to file late last year as well. And it created a financial crunch for us on our ability to complete some refinancing as we were immediately downgraded in credit rating and it created unwanted volatility in trading

Really?

Going Concern -

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/g/goingconcern.asp#:~:text=Key Takeaways-,Going concern is an accounting term for a company that,to be a going concern.

 

Substantial doubt about going concern - 

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1629702/000162970216000012/bellacosta10qklj.htm#:~:text=Substantial doubt about an entity,that the financial statements are