Good News / Good Progress towards back to Cruising....

[OnTheJourney]

NC....we loved our (one and only thus far) river cruise!!  Just relaxing and quiet...especially with the only 60+ passengers onboard. Definitely pricey but I'd do another in a heartbeat. The onboard guides/lecturers that accompanied us on excursions were just outstanding. They all did their own presentations on the ship as well, which were all very interesting. Really can't compare ocean to river cruising. This Viking ocean cruise I did though came much closer to the river experience in quite a few ways. 

[jagoffee]

38 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

If you book a more inclusive cruise (and I thought Regent was more all inclusive), aren’t the non-drinkers still paying for the drinkers?

 

To both you and Steve - one thing that has really held me back from the more all inclusive lines is the shore excursions. We were in France on a land trip a couple of years ago, visited Giverny, the hordes of cruisers were just awful. Most were from Viking (not that other lines were different) and the people were basically lined up and shuffled around the garden paths or pushed in wheelchairs - much like a busy ride line in a theme park. Not at all my idea of an upscale experience and not something that I would want to pay extra for as one of the all inclusive perks. I understand that Covid may change t(is for a while in the short run. But still!

What is your experiences with the included shore excursions 

You comment about shore excursions is very valid in my experience.  We experienced our first All inclusive cruise on Regent.  The cruise was outstanding.  Although you could upgrade in some ports to more expensive shore excursions, we felt that we did not like have shore excursions included.  The air is also included, so we took a credit and booked our own flights.  Many people  are assuming that Celebrity’s Always included is significantly increasing the Celebrity prices. (For me there are too many other factors influencing Celebrity pricing that are more impactful) I can related because I felt having included shore excursions was not something that I valued.  

[HMR74]

On 2/22/2021 at 4:49 PM, hcat said:

Many people booking still have lots of FCC to use up..

If our next and only booked cruise actually sails, our out of pocket costs will be minimal. And we'll have a smaller spa bill for sure!

I guess the real "test" will come about a year after real sailing starts and then seeing who has the money and desire to cruise. The new prices will be at least 3 parts: a) costs to proactively  manage covid, 2) inflation in general and 3) specific inflation on food and energy.

 

Normal supply /demand aspects to pricing has its limits in that these companies need to get back to cash flow positive in a hurry.

 

Until Friday the stock prices esp RCL had been going great guns

[tulok]

I am more of a reader than writer but I would like to chime in as an older (mid-50) traveler.  We have gone on Regent, Uniworld, Viking, as well as other brands that were less exclusive. We booked Celebrity to Bermuda. This will be our first Celebrity. Personally we only will chose a cruise that is more inclusive. And wish they would move more like Regent or the river lines. We went on NCL for a cousin reunion in 2019 and hated the card showing for everything. As for all-inclusive excursions; we have done kayaking under Romain aqueducts, hiking in French vineyards, cooking at a French cooking school. The included excursions are not just cattle cars. My two cents that maybe they are marketing to people that like to pay one price for convenience, not necessarily age.  I do understand both sides and I do have a choice of lines. Unfortunately, we have to choose dates first, brands second. 

Edited February 28, 2021 by tulok
grammar

[WestLakeGirl]

In the past Celebrity has offered some pretty exclusive “private journeys” that aren’t cattle cars.  I wonder if they still will, and if they will become more popular?

[TeeRick]

1 minute ago, WestLakeGirl said:

In the past Celebrity has offered some pretty exclusive “private journeys” that aren’t cattle cars.  I wonder if they still will, and if they will become more popular?

Yes very good point!  We have done this with others that we met on board and shared the cost.  Still more than a private excursion arranged in advance.  But it is hopefully an option for a small well controlled excursion if limited to ship-only excursions.

[NavyCruiser]

More Good News/Progress towards cruising again: 

1. Governor Abbott Lifts Mask Mandate, Opens Texas 100 Percent:

https://gov.texas.gov/news/post/governor-abbott-lifts-mask-mandate-opens-texas-100-percent

 

2.  Register for COVID-19 Vaccine | Harris County Public Health. (HOUSTON)  This vaccine can be provided to individuals 18+ years of age. (Note that individuals vaccinated at the NRG Park site will receive the Pfizer vaccine. Learn more ...

 

https://publichealth.harriscountytx.gov/Resources/2019-Novel-Coronavirus/Register-for-COVID-19-Vaccine

 

3.  Royal Caribbean will offer 'fully vaccinated' cruise with sailings starting in Israel,  in May

https://www.usatoday.com/story/travel/cruises/2021/03/01/royal-caribbean-offer-fully-vaccinated-sailing-new-cruise-ship/6871142002/

[NavyCruiser]

"According to data compiled by the CDC, 9.2% of the U.S. population is now fully vaccinated, and 17.7% have received at least one dose."

 

Thus, 17.7% will have their 2nd dose by end of March, & be fully vaccinated by mid-April.

 

So maybe the cruise lines will look into only allowing fully vaccinated people to start cruising by the summer...

[WestLakeGirl]

Very long thread on this topic here

 

 

[HMR74]

37 minutes ago, NavyCruiser said:

"According to data compiled by the CDC, 9.2% of the U.S. population is now fully vaccinated, and 17.7% have received at least one dose."

 

Thus, 17.7% will have their 2nd dose by end of March, & be fully vaccinated by mid-April.

 

So maybe the cruise lines will look into only allowing fully vaccinated people to start cruising by the summer...

there is a "but" to this and it has to do with masks--The CDC is now saying in a new report released,  if you are vaccinated  you still do have to wear a mask in public, however, (and this is real nice of them) do not have to wear a mask in private where it is with your close family members as an example, where they are all protected by the vaccine except for grandchildren.

 

Fauci in an interview said he thinks vaccinated should wear masks in both circumstances til at least the end of 2021.

 

One of my questions is if we are required to wear masks on cruises later in 2021, what are our options on future credits if for example we are taking a family Thanksgiving 2021vacation and are thinking about moving it to 2022, but right now the consequences is, since they do not go out further than April 30, 2022 At Royal and Celebrity, a change fee of 100 pp is required and you pay the going higher price for next years cruise.

 

This makes for a very  expensive 1 week Caribbean cruise.

Edited March 8, 2021 by HMR74

[HMR74]

Goldman Sachs opined today that herd immunity should be reached by May. I think their Health Care analysts earning 6 figures are better than the Govt analysts. One problem is we can reach herd immunity but the national (suggested) rules stay in place.

[ChucktownSteve]

So it boils down to economics or politics as the decider.

[HMR74]

59 minutes ago, ChucktownSteve said:

So it boils down to economics or politics as the decider.

I guess so. Who has the power and influence?

 

As of  the other day we were thinking that if the crews  and guests are vaccinated we woudl be ok, notwithstanding excursions.

 

Now the vaccination is ok but nothing else changes.

 

Depending on how long the CDC pushes this, from the economic standpoint how full can the ships be if occupancy is limited and of masks are required. Can they even break even? They do not know how many will not cruise if masks are required outside of cabin.

 

Something tells me the CDC and cruise lines are not too close to cutting a deal. 

 

It is basically mid  March and test cruises have not started, right? Best case scenario which is not happening with  this problem would have ships starting to run in 90 days.That's June. and more ships would be phased in over time.

 

A 30-60 day delay, not uncommon, would put this out to end of August, before they start real cruises,  which is into the final payment period for end of year big occupancy premium dollars paid cruises.

 

They have their work cut out for them, before they run out of cash.

 

We are just sitting in the stands watching and waiting for things to restart.

 

RCL is looking into various home port locations in the Caribbean and other places to apparently avoid US regs.

However, Tampa, Ft. Lauderdale, Miami and perhaps Galveston are losing a lot of business due to no cruises--I wonder how much influence those city mayors have.

 

 

Edited March 8, 2021 by HMR74

[ChucktownSteve]

38 minutes ago, HMR74 said:

However, Tampa, Ft. Lauderdale, Miami and perhaps Galveston are losing a lot of business due to no cruises--I wonder how much influence those city mayors have.

 

You're kidding right?  Why would Washington politicians give up a good crisis?  BTW don't they really control the CDC too? Look how hard they are fighting individual states trying to re-open or fully open.  With the death rate and hospitalization rates rapidly declining due to the vaccinations, why would that not have had any bearing on what Washington says?

 

I'm seriously beginning to doubt cruising will resume before the end of the year.  I had hoped by mid year but they keep moving the goal posts. I hope they prove me wrong.

 

I just wish the powers that be would follow the REAL science...not the agenda.

 

 

Edited March 8, 2021 by ChucktownSteve

[HMR74]

41 minutes ago, ChucktownSteve said:

 

You're kidding right?  Why would Washington politicians give up a good crisis?  BTW don't they really control the CDC too? Look how hard they are fighting individual states trying to re-open or fully open.  With the death rate and hospitalization rates rapidly declining due to the vaccinations, why would that not have had any bearing on what Washington says?

 

I'm seriously beginning to doubt cruising will resume before the end of the year.  I had hoped by mid year but they keep moving the goal posts. I hope they prove me wrong.

 

I just wish the powers that be would follow the REAL science...not the agenda.

 

 

Here is the CDC report, not an easy read,  but I think it says mask counties vs no mask counties indicate  cases, hospitalizations and deaths that were not statistically different.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7010e3-H.pdf

 

I only partially kid, I am sarcastic a lot. It was a rhetorical question about the mayors of those 4 ports who are losing a ton of economic activity. Econ and business are not the end all, but we need that economic activity or we will create such a massive problem that's going to change everything , well beyond the crusing sector.

 

Its a mess anyway we cut this. When you read my comments you see that I too believe its going to be difficult to resume cruising anywhere near full capacity until after 2021 is over. I thought that the cruise lines are targeting being up at full operations by Nov 2021 for the high price full capacity season, that they thought they could get to by Nov 2020.  Yet, here we are again looking at time lines trying to figure it out while the clock is running.

 

RCCL with its capital raise adds around 6 months of cash for cash burn. That's September ish. But its also using deposit cash, a bit unnerving.

 

I am looking to get out of my Nov cruise, and move it to 2022 November. But I have to pay a change fee right now plus the higher cruise cost, so I will wait to see if they extend the April 30 and Sept 30 dates to include my November cruise (with 4 cabins).

 

This used to be easy, pick a cabin, pay your money and sail. Now we need a flow chart to figure it all out.

 

 

 

Edited March 9, 2021 by HMR74

[HMR74]

to a hammer, everything is a nail, to an epidemiologist, every thing is a pandemic.

 

I cannot figure out politicians (don't let a good crisis go to waste) or PHD's in Economics. Maybe I figured it out but do not want to say.

[ChucktownSteve]

47 minutes ago, HMR74 said:

I cannot figure out politicians (don't let a good crisis go to waste) or PHD's in Economics. Maybe I figured it out but do not want to say.

 

It's simple. Power and lobbyists.  Oops. I said it.  Or to put it another way, The Golden Rule.  He who has the gold (power) rules.

 

Politicians, economists and epidemiologists all have a single perspective...their own point of view without considering the total picture.

 

All we want to do is cruise. That's not in any of their agendas. We lose.

Edited March 9, 2021 by ChucktownSteve

[nocl]

1 hour ago, HMR74 said:

Here is the CDC report, not an easy read,  but I think it says mask counties vs no mask counties indicate  cases, hospitalizations and deaths that were not statistically different.

 

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/pdfs/mm7010e3-H.pdf

 

I only partially kid, I am sarcastic a lot. It was a rhetorical question about the mayors of those 4 ports who are losing a ton of economic activity. Econ and business are not the end all, but we need that economic activity or we will create such a massive problem that's going to change everything , well beyond the crusing sector.

 

Its a mess anyway we cut this. When you read my comments you see that I too believe its going to be difficult to resume cruising anywhere near full capacity until after 2021 is over. I thought that the cruise lines are targeting being up at full operations by Nov 2021 for the high price full capacity season, that they thought they could get to by Nov 2020.  Yet, here we are again looking at time lines trying to figure it out while the clock is running.

 

RCCL with its capital raise adds around 6 months of cash for cash burn. That's September ish. But its also using deposit cash, a bit unnerving.

 

I am looking to get out of my Nov cruise, and move it to 2022 November. But I have to pay a change fee right now plus the higher cruise cost, so I will wait to see if they extend the April 30 and Sept 30 dates to include my November cruise (with 4 cabins).

 

This used to be easy, pick a cabin, pay your money and sail. Now we need a flow chart to figure it all out.

 

 

 

Actually it says that they were not statistically different before the mandates, but a clear difference afterwords.

 

During March 1–December 31, 2020, state-issued mask mandates applied in 2,313 (73.6%) of the 3,142 U.S. counties. Mask mandates were associated with a 0.5 percentage point decrease (p = 0.02) in daily COVID-19 case growth rates 1–20 days after implementation and decreases of 1.1, 1.5, 1.7, and 1.8 percentage points 21–40, 41–60, 61–80, and 81–100 days, respectively, after implementation (p<0.01 for all) (Table 1) (Figure). Mask mandates were associated with a 0.7 percentage point decrease (p = 0.03) in daily COVID-19 death growth rates 1–20 days after implementation and decreases of 1.0, 1.4, 1.6, and 1.9 percentage points 21–40, 41–60, 61–80, and 81–100 days, respectively, after implementation (p<0.01 for all). Daily case and death growth rates before implementation of mask mandates were not statistically different from the reference period.

[HMR74]

11 minutes ago, nocl said:

Actually it says that they were not statistically different before the mandates, but a clear difference afterwords.

 

During March 1–December 31, 2020, state-issued mask mandates applied in 2,313 (73.6%) of the 3,142 U.S. counties. Mask mandates were associated with a 0.5 percentage point decrease (p = 0.02) in daily COVID-19 case growth rates 1–20 days after implementation and decreases of 1.1, 1.5, 1.7, and 1.8 percentage points 21–40, 41–60, 61–80, and 81–100 days, respectively, after implementation (p<0.01 for all) (Table 1) (Figure). Mask mandates were associated with a 0.7 percentage point decrease (p = 0.03) in daily COVID-19 death growth rates 1–20 days after implementation and decreases of 1.0, 1.4, 1.6, and 1.9 percentage points 21–40, 41–60, 61–80, and 81–100 days, respectively, after implementation (p<0.01 for all). Daily case and death growth rates before implementation of mask mandates were not statistically different from the reference period.

I saw that but thats for state or county mandates, where is comparison to non mandates. 
 

i need cliff notes.

Edited March 9, 2021 by HMR74

[markeb]

52 minutes ago, ChucktownSteve said:

 

It's simple. Power and lobbyists.  Oops. I said it.  Or to put it another way, The Golden Rule.  He who has the gold (power) rules.

 

Politicians, economists and epidemiologists all have a single perspective...their own point of view without considering the total picture.

 

All we want to do is cruise. That's not in any of their agendas. We lose.

Maybe you could name an actual epidemiologist pursuing their own point of view without considering the total picture? And I’ll save you some effort. None of the names you’re going to name are epidemiologists. The director of NIH isn’t an epidemiologist. Neither is the director of NIAID, nor the last two directors of the CDC. Or secretaries of HHS. 
 

Associate Director level principals at CDC do have epidemiology backgrounds, but most people not in their field have never heard of them. 

[HMR74]

38 minutes ago, nocl said:

Daily case and death growth rates before implementation of mask mandates were not statistically different from the reference period.

not to push the point but I think it says not much changed.

 

It does not make a difference;  nobody in a decision making capacity  is looking for my opinion, or anybody elses  on this anyway.

 

[LGW59]

11 minutes ago, markeb said:

Maybe you could name an actual epidemiologist pursuing their own point of view without considering the total picture? And I’ll save you some effort. None of the names you’re going to name are epidemiologists. The director of NIH isn’t an epidemiologist. Neither is the director of NIAID, nor the last two directors of the CDC. Or secretaries of HHS. 
 

Associate Director level principals at CDC do have epidemiology backgrounds, but most people not in their field have never heard of them. 

Well said!  Yes it seems for some getting COVID under control and folks vaccinated is all about we just want to cruise.  🙄  How about we get teachers and kids back to school, small business owners able to re-open, elderly folks back to being able to meet with friends and play cards, met for lunch, book clubs, cruises are and should be way way down on the list.

Edited March 9, 2021 by LGW59

[HMR74]

1 minute ago, markeb said:

Maybe you could name an actual epidemiologist pursuing their own point of view without considering the total picture? And I’ll save you some effort. None of the names you’re going to name are epidemiologists. The director of NIH isn’t an epidemiologist. Neither is the director of NIAID, nor the last two directors of the CDC. Or secretaries of HHS. 
 

Associate Director level principals at CDC do have epidemiology backgrounds, but most people not in their field have never heard of them. 

don't get too upset, It was a general comment . It is the bureaucracy.

I used to deal with the IRS and courts. I learned the law really does not matter--just try to get on their good side so they do not mess as much with you as they can.

 

It is a power issue and as well, bluntly, the bureaucrats even the professionals, tend to take it easy. I know as I observed it and those in govt do admit there is a entire group that for them its a 9-5 job, with early retirement, good pension and ability to double dip. 

 

 

 

[ChucktownSteve]

18 minutes ago, markeb said:

Maybe you could name an actual epidemiologist pursuing their own point of view without considering the total picture? And I’ll save you some effort. None of the names you’re going to name are epidemiologists. The director of NIH isn’t an epidemiologist. Neither is the director of NIAID, nor the last two directors of the CDC. Or secretaries of HHS. 
 

Associate Director level principals at CDC do have epidemiology backgrounds, but most people not in their field have never heard of them. 

 

You're correct. I was thinking immunologist but typed epidemiologist. The person I had in mind was Faucci. 

 

 Epidemiologists are public health professionals who investigate patterns and causes of disease and injury in humans. Imagine none of the people making the decisions you mention are epidemiologists.

Edited March 9, 2021 by ChucktownSteve

[ChucktownSteve]

20 minutes ago, LGW59 said:

 How about we get teachers and kids back to school, small business owners able to re-open, elderly folks back to being able to meet with friends and play cards, met for lunch, book clubs, cruises are and should be way way down on the list.

 

And just how do you propose to convince the teacher's union to go back to work?  They wanted more money, they got it. They wanted vaccinations, they got it and still refused to go back.  How can you get small business back open when the politicians refuse to let them open?

 

Pipe dream.