CDC Extends Conditional Sail Order Until 1/15/22

[whitecap]

37 minutes ago, Steelers36 said:

Where did all these cases occur?  If so many, wouldn't we hear?  Princess not affected as much as others?

According to the Ship Status update on the CDC website, the only Princess ship listed in the yellow is Emerald Princess.  Most other cruise lines have several ships listed.  What concerns me is that over 1300 passengers have been lab tested with COVID on ships operating at less than full capacity and with a number of restrictions/requirements which leads me to wonder if the rules/regulations are really being enforced and how all these cases developed when those boarding had to be vaccinated and or tested before the cruise.  

[GonzoWCS]

Great read. Thanks for posting this and for the discussion

 

Cheers

[ebeluga]

“Symptomatic passengers denied symptoms”  - why does that not surprise me?

[brisalta]

9 hours ago, Jadn13 said:

Pages 20-22 are worth reading. 

and page 23

[whitecap]

14 minutes ago, brisalta said:

and page 23

And out of all the countries listed on page 23, Princess is still setting itineraries for these countries.  The November cruise we cancelled will now stop in St. Kitts, Bahamas, 2 Mexican ports and Belize.  All listed.  Go figure.

[Earthworm Jim]

7 hours ago, whitecap said:

According to the Ship Status update on the CDC website, the only Princess ship listed in the yellow is Emerald Princess.  Most other cruise lines have several ships listed.  What concerns me is that over 1300 passengers have been lab tested with COVID on ships operating at less than full capacity and with a number of restrictions/requirements which leads me to wonder if the rules/regulations are really being enforced and how all these cases developed when those boarding had to be vaccinated and or tested before the cruise.  

 

But without having the total number of cruisers, it's hard to evaluate that number. I don't know the real numbers, but say there's been an average of 20 ships a week sailing over the last 4 months and the ships averaged 3000 passengers. 20 ships times 16 weeks times 3000 passengers would be 960,000 passengers total.

 

1300 cases out of 960,000 passengers is one case out of every ~740 cruisers. In that context it doesn't sound terribly alarming.

[SargassoPirate]

1 hour ago, Earthworm Jim said:

 

But without having the total number of cruisers, it's hard to evaluate that number. I don't know the real numbers, but say there's been an average of 20 ships a week sailing over the last 4 months and the ships averaged 3000 passengers. 20 ships times 16 weeks times 3000 passengers would be 960,000 passengers total.

 

1300 cases out of 960,000 passengers is one case out of every ~740 cruisers. In that context it doesn't sound terribly alarming.

Take a look at the CDC data for the total number of breakthrough transmissions amongst vaccinated Americans.

 

Never let science and the facts interfere with hype and hysteria.

[PrincessLuver]

2 hours ago, Earthworm Jim said:

 

But without having the total number of cruisers, it's hard to evaluate that number. I don't know the real numbers, but say there's been an average of 20 ships a week sailing over the last 4 months and the ships averaged 3000 passengers. 20 ships times 16 weeks times 3000 passengers would be 960,000 passengers total.

 

1300 cases out of 960,000 passengers is one case out of every ~740 cruisers. In that context it doesn't sound terribly alarming.

 

I am not aware of any Princess ships sailing with 3000 passengers per cruise so far?

[Musky Ike]

26 minutes ago, PrincessLuver said:

 

I am not aware of any Princess ships sailing with 3000 passengers per cruise so far?

Passengers and crew. Plus Princess is far from the only line. The point is no context from the CDC. 1359 out of ???????

Edited October 27, 2021 by Musky Ike

[nocl]

2 hours ago, SargassoPirate said:

Take a look at the CDC data for the total number of breakthrough transmissions amongst vaccinated Americans.

 

Never let science and the facts interfere with hype and hysteria.

Take a look at the CDC data, then multiplying by 10 since the CDC says that it is from Covid net which only covers around 10% of the population. The CDC itself says that data set is for trend analysis, not a true count of breakthrough Infections.

[SargassoPirate]

8 hours ago, nocl said:

Take a look at the CDC data, then multiplying by 10 since the CDC says that it is from Covid net which only covers around 10% of the population. The CDC itself says that data set is for trend analysis, not a true count of breakthrough Infections.

 

So what numbers is the CDC using to make their decisions?

 

When I have pressed them for data regarding the mandates, they used words such as "may" and "could" but would not give me a scientific rationale for why vaccinated Americans should be required to wear a mask anywhere, let alone when 100 percent vaccination is required to participate in an event or activity.

 

I am encouraged that they are now admitting that a zero case rate is unobtainable.

 

 

[nocl]

1 hour ago, SargassoPirate said:

So what numbers is the CDC using to make their decisions?

 

When I have pressed them for data regarding the mandates, they used words such as "may" and "could" but would not give me a scientific rationale for why vaccinated Americans should be required to wear a mask anywhere, let alone when 100 percent vaccination is required to participate in an event or activity.

 

I am encouraged that they are now admitting that a zero case rate is unobtainable.

 

 

Depends upon what decisions they are making  A lot comes from published studies, both inside and outside of the US. A lot comes from very in depth models, which can utilize the data they do get to project disease behavior.

 

In the case of cruise ships they get detailed reports from each ship.

 

The goal 8s not and never has been a zero case rate, the goal is to get the illness under control, before there is an even worse varisn that is resistant to the current vaccine. Delta already has some resistance, and is far more infectious.

 

When the case counts are low enough that the odds are low  that an infectious person will be encountered is when we can move vaccines from the last line of protection, after masks, distancing fail, to the first line and not need the others.

[PrincessLuver]

11 hours ago, Musky Ike said:

Passengers and crew. Plus Princess is far from the only line. The point is no context from the CDC. 1359 out of ???????

 

I still think 3000 per sail is not verified and a guess from the OP......I would not doubt that cruise lines would probably under report Covid cases on their ships too......

[Steelers36]

1 hour ago, nocl said:

When the case counts are low enough that the odds are low  that an infectious person will be encountered is when we can move vaccines from the last line of protection, after masks, distancing fail, to the first line and not need the others.

The above is unspecific - and perhaps there are no specific numbers at this time.  Some might think the odds are low enough now in many circumstances (i.e. a group of fully-vaccinated persons).  What do you think the counts and odds should be or will be to get to the point where the vaccine is the defense and other measures are not required?  I am thinking you might have an idea as demonstrate quite a lot of knowledge and research in this area.

[PRNole47]

In the CDC color chart for cruise lines, what do the terms "Restricted" and "Crew Only (approved under  restricted)" mean under Current Voyage Type?

[Steelers36]

54 minutes ago, PRNole47 said:

In the CDC color chart for cruise lines, what do the terms "Restricted" and "Crew Only (approved under  restricted)" mean under Current Voyage Type?

Crew Only is obvious.  Restricted means the cruise line has restrictions on who can sail such as fully vaccinated.

[Steelers36]

@nocl, I guess you replied to my post #39 above, but was deleted.  Perhaps being too specific with numbers was not in line with postings concerning Covid.  As you know, the email notice only contains the first few words of a post, so IDK what all you said, but saw the gist of your initial case number level - which works out to avg of ~3/100K (almost negligible).  Didn't mean to put you in a position where you cannot really respond as you might like.

 

[pris993]

On 10/26/2021 at 3:22 AM, Jadn13 said:

See pages 20-22

I don't believe every thing I read anymore.  Does matter who puts it out, lots of stories about flawed data this past year.  

[Daniel A]

All this about case counts is really irrelevant.  The CDC never intended to let the CSO expire on October 31 so they grabbed what few examples they could in order to sell it to the public as a necessity.  Let's see what excuses they come up with in January.  There's a reason they hid the full information by labelling the ships anonymously.  It certainly makes it difficult for anybody to refute their data.

[Earthworm Jim]

On 10/26/2021 at 8:02 PM, PrincessLuver said:

 

I am not aware of any Princess ships sailing with 3000 passengers per cruise so far?

 

But the 1300 infected didn't just include Princess cruises. That was all cruise lines.

 

In any event, that was just an example and I don't know what the real numbers are. Plug in your own guesses as to how many cruises there have been and how many passengers on each ship. My point was, once you have your guestimate of how many people have cruised since the resumption of cruising, you might find 1300 doesn't look like that big a number anymore.

 

(Though that 1300 number was just the total from the worst infected cruises that the CDC used as justification for the extension. Presumably there were also lower numbers of infected on other cruises too, so it's really more than 1300 infected.)

[Earthworm Jim]

9 hours ago, Steelers36 said:

Crew Only is obvious.  Restricted means the cruise line has restrictions on who can sail such as fully vaccinated.

 

Restricted cruises are those that are operating under CDC restrictions (the Conditional Sailing Order) either by choice (in the case of Florida cruises) or requirement (everywhere else). So it's basically all cruises with paying passengers, since the cruise lines in Florida are voluntarily following the CSO.