CCL hits 52 week low

[Illbcruzn4life]

$14.45. Time to buy more?

 

Unfortunately my retirement account is at a 52 week low as well.

[hard_eight]

71.74% Loss for me Ugh

[ColeThornton]

Horrible year for stocks all around unfortunately.

[mz-s]

Pretty sure every stock is at a 52-week low. A lot of people are suggesting a stock market crash.

[shof515]

18 minutes ago, hard_eight said:

71.74% Loss for me Ugh

same for me

 

around the time when covid hit and all cruises line shut down, carnival stock was less then 10 dollars a share

[DataDon]

Just bought 110 shares at 15.08 an hour ago. Now at 14.62 up from a low of 14.40

[Knights on the Beach]

We bought a bunch of it when it was a little over $8 so we're still ahead.  Not that the rest of our portfolio is though.

[Calnev1]

28 minutes ago, mz-s said:

 A lot of people are suggesting a stock market crash.

The market goes up, the market goes down.  But mostly up. 

 

Those people who talk about about a market crash probably 1)  Never participate in the market, or 2) buy high and sell low.   Not the best folks to take investment advice from.

[cruisingguy007]

1 hour ago, mz-s said:

Pretty sure every stock is at a 52-week low. A lot of people are suggesting a stock market crash.

 

Summer won't help, extreme heat hurts the economy, costing billions in production losses. The only good news is that it's an election year so come fall, any/all efforts will be made to entice/incentivise voters; that may generate a little bit of relief, temporarily anyways. If covid throws a huge breaking ball, all bets are off though.  

[mz-s]

2 hours ago, Calnev1 said:

The market goes up, the market goes down.  But mostly up. 

 

Those people who talk about about a market crash probably 1)  Never participate in the market, or 2) buy high and sell low.   Not the best folks to take investment advice from.

 

I don't participate in the market other than with my investment products as part of my retirement. 401k and things like that. So no, nobody should take advice from me.

 

Actually I'm not silly enough to ask for investing advice on a cruise forum either so maybe I shouldn't have clicked on this thread to begin with. Carry on.

[CruisingFromLA]

I bought 100 shares in June 2019 at $45, still holding on to those for if and when the price might ever go back to that amount (you don't lose money unless you sell right). I also bought an additional 100 at $13 a share back in May 2020 (this I will keep for the obc). 

[Calnev1]

58 minutes ago, ChC said:

 

The first sentence seemed to be very wise, then, what the two words after the BUT exposes the depth of your knowledge on economics. I for one would agree never take advice from this forum after reading the two words I highlighted. I could have written several doctorate's thesis based on that 2 words alone in explaining why it is not true. However, there are so many experts on this forum, who am I arguing with?  

Lol.  I'm didn't give any advice here about whether its a good time to buy stocks,   and I won't.  You write your theses, and I will stick by the stock market going "mostly up" as illustrated quite clearly by historical performance charts:

 

https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/historical/marketindexes.html

[ChutChut]

4 hours ago, Illbcruzn4life said:

$14.45. Time to buy more?

 

Unfortunately my retirement account is at a 52 week low as well.

I fear it's going to get a lot worse before it gets better. We're in for record inflation and then a miserable recession.

[ChutChut]

4 hours ago, Calnev1 said:

The market goes up, the market goes down.  But mostly up. 

 

Those people who talk about about a market crash probably 1)  Never participate in the market, or 2) buy high and sell low.   Not the best folks to take investment advice from.

I'm invested in the market and I, mostly, have bought low and sold high, but the economy is tanking (inflation and then a spiraling recession). The market will follow. Sure, it'll go up at some point - the question is it going to be too late for those close to, or in, retirement.

[Calnev1]

44 minutes ago, ChutChut said:

I'm invested in the market and I, mostly, have bought low and sold high, but the economy is tanking (inflation and then a spiraling recession). The market will follow. Sure, it'll go up at some point - the question is it going to be too late for those close to, or in, retirement.

I am not a market timer.  I buy and hold long term. 

 

It sounds like maybe you are selling stocks now in anticipation of a recession (I apologize if I have misinterpeted you).   The problem, though,  with trying to time the stock  market is that you need to be right twice, in this case when exactly to sell if you anticipate  a bad recession, and then when exactly to rebuy before the stock market rebounds too much.  Complicating this is that the market and the economy do not move in lockstep, that is, for example, the market can rebound before a recession has actually abated.   I do think research shows that folks who market time don't make either decision (sell or buy) very well.   But if you can do it, more power to you.

Edited May 9, 2022 by Calnev1

[Calnev1]

36 minutes ago, ChC said:

 

That is where we differ.

 

First you will have to define 'up'. Absolute in numbers might support your idea of UP. However, if you are talking about numbers of up or down motion (total number of ups and downs)-- let us be honest here, your opening sentence defined the markets will go up and will go down,  so this is possible--, then every up will have a down. If you want to compare numbers of waves that going up and down, good luck on that too. However, if you are talking about one year time period from opening to closing, yes, Dow Jones indeed have more up years than down years.

 

Then, we come to your affirmation of your thesis that markets is up from 1900 to now. That is a misconception. For one thing, one dollar you invested in, let us say 1929, is vastly different from the value of one dollar today. We have experienced multiple waves of high inflation, devaluation and shocks. One metrics we can use is that $1 in 1929 equivalent to $15 today according to some estimate. So 381 of Dow Jones in record high during 1929, is roughly 5715 points as of today.  Which is pretty close to 1996's value. 

 

So a better way to see the real chart, is to see the charts in a inflation adjusted way. And the bad news for you is up to until mid 1990s, the market is hardly up. Only in 2000s, with helicopter money and flood of QE, market was super inflated. Without going further off the topic, let me say this wave of up will have its down turn. If the stagnation is the medium term, there is a danger the market will go back to the late 1990's value in inflation-adjusted manner. I am not saying it will happen. But danger is there.

 

Finally I have not touched the expansion of the Dow and the expansion of economic sector that inflated the absolute number of the index. Let us not go on that route. But, I am sure many other more educated people here will correct me if I am wrong, or give you more details should you be interested.

Wow.  All this from my statement "but mostly up." 

[paulco]

My thought is I would like to own a hundred shares for the obc. Have traveled enough on the various carnival corp lines  to have made it worthwhile. I still have one of my $1200 stimulus checks!  If it hits $12.00 I’ll buy(maybe?).

[Calnev1]

1 hour ago, paulco said:

My thought is I would like to own a hundred shares for the obc. Have traveled enough on the various carnival corp lines  to have made it worthwhile. I still have one of my $1200 stimulus checks!  If it hits $12.00 I’ll buy(maybe?).

Just keep in mind that carnival cruise lines (not Carnival Corporation) has been getting stingier in giving out the shareholder benefit OBC.  Multiple threads already on that topic.

[paulco]

Oh sure, nothing is a given these days!

[Illbcruzn4life]

1 hour ago, Calnev1 said:

Just keep in mind that carnival cruise lines (not Carnival Corporation) has been getting stingier in giving out the shareholder benefit OBC.  Multiple threads already on that topic.

Havent seen any post lately about that. Seems there was a month or when everybody was getting denied. Doesnt seem to be the case anymore

[lilchuckie]

I think it will be in the single digits by the Fourth of July. I will buy at 11 and 8 and 5. Just hope it doesn't become a penny stock. 

[nycruise1]

22 hours ago, Calnev1 said:

Just keep in mind that carnival cruise lines (not Carnival Corporation) has been getting stingier in giving out the shareholder benefit OBC.  Multiple threads already on that topic.

I was concerned about this but have gotten the obc on a senior rate and heavily discounted rates using my vifp.  Almost wasnt going to try when I read the threads but went ahead and did and it went through.

[IslandHppy]

I teach at a business school and have been reading the earnings releases.  It looks like demand for cruises is strong.  But the lines have loaded up with debt.  And key costs are rising such as fuel, food and staff.  I was always curious where break even was and now we know - it was around 80% full, now closer to 90%.  In good times, occupancy was a bit over 100%.  It looks like pricing is strong based on searching for cheap upcoming trips yesterday- few were found.  The lines have been very open about their situation (as they should as public companies).  Risks are out there such as wars,  disease outbreaks and recessions, not to mention bacon shortages.  There is a classic book "The Intelligent Investor" that says to study any company before you buy the stock.  

  

[Calnev1]

13 hours ago, nycruise1 said:

I was concerned about this but have gotten the obc on a senior rate and heavily discounted rates using my vifp.  Almost wasnt going to try when I read the threads but went ahead and did and it went through.

Good to hear!

[Calnev1]

14 hours ago, MalteseFred said:

Got my 2000+ shares when they went public in the early 90s....$1.05 a share!

Even though I am well ahead, I mean WELL ahead, I still shiver when I remember my

$1 had gone up to $70 in early 2018 😞 

I know how you feel.   You are still way ahead, but if only somehow you had managed to sell around $70 how much better you would be now . . . .     Reminds me of my inlaws.   They owned quite a bit of Rockwell International stock since the dad worked there, and over the years Rockwell spun off small pieces, including in some tech company called Conexant.  Well, during the  tech bubble the price of Conexant soared so that my inlaw's stake in that company was, on paper, worth much more than their Rockwell stock.  Then the tech bubble burst, and the price of Conexant collapsed.  My mother in law used to wonder out loud how they had a million dollars in Connexant stock, and then it all went away.  If we all had a crystal ball.

Edited May 11, 2022 by Calnev1