RCL stock - these guys really seem to dislike RCL stock

[firefly333]

Seems to be the debt but they even say growth is bad. 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/royal-caribbean-group-rcl-set-160843508.html

 

Hopefully they are able to really knock off some extra debt with great numbers. All these little new areas for extra revenue. Any thoughts?

[crewsweeper]

Well if GF is focusing on growth and momentum then all cruise line stocks are going to look bad, as they tend to be more value oriented. Interesting they say they use data from 2006, but only show rolling 3 year stats.  Yes, RCCL has a ton of debt, but unless revenues are shrinking enough to impact debt service, that shouldn't be a primary concern.  RCCL is yet to be on the auction block or in the sight of private equity managers.

The stock may or may not have a roll in your individual portfolio.  It is held by several institutional value managers who tend to be longer term focused.

[smokeybandit]

"RCL did really bad when it was shut down for 1.5 years due to covid, but we won't take that into consideration in our black and white computer model"

[Baron Barracuda]

This is just dumb.  How can they forecast based solely from the last three years covid depressed results.  Yes, balance sheet is a mess but just this week they re-negotiated some debt paying down part of a line of credit and securing a lower rate on several $ billion.

[firefly333]

Imo they are also using the fact rcl stock sold down from 112 to under 90 as a reason to say something is wrong. I too think seems wrong and maybe they dont know the industry. It's not the same as a hotel or a airline. .. I dont know what next earnings will be but I expect great earnings.  That's why this caught my eye. 

 

I trade on charts usually. Because institutions computers are also using charts. 

 

Cpi and ppi 3rd month in a row inflation is alive and well but everyone says the fed is in a pickle. Cant raise or banks get hurt. Not 1 buyer today at the 30 year treasury auction. Not 1 buyer at the rate offered. Rates too low. Anyway I use charts .. but this so negative piece warning not to buy imo worth a read what is being said. If it goes lower I'm ignoring it and buying more, but I read everything related and weigh it. I have mentioned elsewhere I dont continue to see price increases on cruises, more last minute deals has got me thinking of future growth. 

[neverbeenhere]

Personally, I think the share price is still too high for long term investing. The pandemic period losses (50+ Billion), increase in outstanding shares (15%) and debt load(a crap load) are still issues. I will be happier when I see larger adjusted book earnings proving that the current cruise pricing is resulting in larger profits.

 

Just an opinion.

[grandgeezer]

1 hour ago, smokeybandit said:

"RCL did really bad when it was shut down for 1.5 years due to covid, but we won't take that into consideration in our black and white computer model"

Their opinions are based on the facts. The 1.5 years the lines were shutdown was an excuse/reason and it changes nothing. Were the people who lost their place they live, or jobs given a pass, according to what I read or hear, it had no bearing or housing.

Added bonus: Cruising is a worldwide business that is open to all ages, if they choose to do it. Probably a good portion

will not be able to do it based on cost. In 2022, the world population was 8,000,000,000.. That’s billion. Total number of passengers was 20,400,000. This is the number of bodies, for example if you did 50 days that’s figured in the total. For arguments sake and easier math, figure the average is ten per person who cruised and only 10% could afford it. Based on that, one person out of 392 people, who could afford it. Maybe that’s why so many people didn’t really care what happened during the shutdown.

[yogimax]

1 hour ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Yes, balance sheet is a mess but just this week they re-negotiated some debt paying down part of a line of credit and securing a lower rate on several $ billion.

Can you send a link to this?  I can't find any information about it.

[NateUpNorth]

Not one buyer of the 30yrs.
Interest rate didn't justify the purchase.
Not. One.

RCL swimming in debt. Yes, some is at good rates, yes some was re-upped at good rates, but how long will those last.

Do you see RCL aggressively attacking debt with the revenue/profits they're squeezing out right now? If not what will that do to their finances when it all rolls over down the road. 
Now re-read the first three sentences.

(just my opinion which is very macro oriented and excludes a LOT of the fancy charts and graphs)

[smokeybandit]

19 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Their opinions are based on the facts. The 1.5 years the lines were shutdown was an excuse/reason and it changes nothing.

 

Cruise lines were the hardest hit travel industry during covid. They didn't get bailouts or PPP loans. They were left to rot. Yet they survived.

[NateUpNorth]

3 minutes ago, smokeybandit said:

 

Cruise lines were the hardest hit travel industry during covid. They didn't get bailouts or PPP loans. They were left to rot. Yet they survived.

"Too big to fail!"

ummm....... err........ nevermind 😬

[firefly333]

1 hour ago, neverbeenhere said:

Personally, I think the share price is still too high for long term investing. The pandemic period losses (50+ Billion), increase in outstanding shares (15%) and debt load(a crap load) are still issues. I will be happier when I see larger adjusted book earnings proving that the current cruise pricing is resulting in larger profits.

 

Just an opinion.

I posted elsewhere I sold rcl at $104ish .. as biker pointed out. Just lately looking at where the charts show it's coming into my buy back range. I havent been shy saying at over $100 and no dividend any more and high debt was too high. But I do think there is growth going to show of bookings enough in the 80s to get back in before earnings. 

 

I posted before and said I was out and sold all my rcl stock over $100. Even with good bookings, imo didnt support such a lofty price.

 

We will see if bookings justify this price nov 1st. 

 

I too would be interested to see how much debt was paid off lately. Not just refinanced but paid off, gone. The debt is a huge factor with rising rates.

Edited October 12, 2023 by firefly333

[volk904]

I have 200 shares all purchased under$36.  Kicking myself for not selling 100 when it was over $110.  

[firefly333]

6 minutes ago, volk904 said:

I have 200 shares all purchased under$36.  Kicking myself for not selling 100 when it was over $110.  

No one ever buys and sells perfect. At least you bought very low. I could chastise myself selling at $104 and watched it hit $112. 

 

Watch for a pop nov 1st earnings. Last earnings it popped, but didnt hold. Stocks never react the same twice. Right now it seems to be bouncing off $86ish support. World events could change the whole market, but right now $86 looks like support. If you make money just learn to say thanks and not beat yourself up you didnt make more. Still a chance it will pop on earnings. I'll be listening that  night. We are just barely heading into earnings season. Say thank you rcl is before nclh. Nclh and ccl always bring the sector down. 

[mark290]

8 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

 

Watch for a pop nov 1st earnings. Last earnings it popped, but didnt hold. Stocks never react the same twice. 

Haven’t you said that you expect the stock to react the same way it did before on earnings?

isn’t that a stock reacting the same way twice?

[firefly333]

30 minutes ago, mark290 said:

Haven’t you said that you expect the stock to react the same way it did before on earnings?

isn’t that a stock reacting the same way twice?

I said I will be watching for earnings. I dont have any idea how it will react. I do predict good earnings. All these little extras, the  new adult area at coco cay, now collecting final payment earlier on longer cruises. I think the bean counters are pushing things for all they can. 

 

If I get a nice pop I might sell, otherwise I'm holding. I think high prices will eventually push it higher. At this price I feel ok holding. I watch all the earnings I can.

 

Nvda so much hype, grew earnings 88% qtr over qtr and is still in the same range, has to grow into its pe some more? Doesnt mean earnings werent huge.

 

Pltr was a $5 stock earlier this year and got hyped like crazy as a AI stock. To the moon. I have some at $7. It is just recently profitable. Said 4 cents profit, did 4 cents, sold off. Nothing extra and people wanted more. Back to $15 but moving again, just got a army contract 2 days ago. At $7 I can wait. 

 

I could go on how stocks didnt react as people predicted. Maybe for me that's the fun. Find something with solid earnings at a good price. I will be watching earnings for rcl. .. and others. I usually just hold and watch. I am not predicting any reaction from rcl. I know what it's been doing though. I'm fine holding too. Earnings throw charts out the window, always a free for all. Ya never know.

[RJ257]

11 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Seems to be the debt but they even say growth is bad. 

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/royal-caribbean-group-rcl-set-160843508.html

 

Hopefully they are able to really knock off some extra debt with great numbers. All these little new areas for extra revenue. Any thoughts?

Cruise lines have huge Capital Expenditures. Couple that with large debt service that's not being  covered with FCF thats now used for CapEx, high borrowing costs and weak balance sheets. Royal and others have billions that need to be refinanced I believe in 2024. With current rates its a lot of headwinds for this group.

[mark290]

2 hours ago, firefly333 said:

I said I will be watching for earnings. I dont have any idea how it will react. I do predict good earnings. All these little extras, the  new adult area at coco cay, now collecting final payment earlier on longer cruises. I think the bean counters are pushing things for all they can. 

 

If I get a nice pop I might sell, otherwise I'm holding. I think high prices will eventually push it higher. At this price I feel ok holding. I watch all the earnings I can.

 

Nvda so much hype, grew earnings 88% qtr over qtr and is still in the same range, has to grow into its pe some more? Doesnt mean earnings werent huge.

 

Pltr was a $5 stock earlier this year and got hyped like crazy as a AI stock. To the moon. I have some at $7. It is just recently profitable. Said 4 cents profit, did 4 cents, sold off. Nothing extra and people wanted more. Back to $15 but moving again, just got a army contract 2 days ago. At $7 I can wait. 

 

I could go on how stocks didnt react as people predicted. Maybe for me that's the fun. Find something with solid earnings at a good price. I will be watching earnings for rcl. .. and others. I usually just hold and watch. I am not predicting any reaction from rcl. I know what it's been doing though. I'm fine holding too. Earnings throw charts out the window, always a free for all. Ya never know.

Sorry, I must have misunderstood. It sure sounded like your post from 9/1 indicated you expected the stock to react the same way this earnings as it had last earnings. That would be a stock reacting the same way twice. 
 

“I'm hoping for a  break below 96 to buy my shares back but before next earnings. Ido expect another pop next earnings. ”

[firefly333]

1 hour ago, mark290 said:

Sorry, I must have misunderstood. It sure sounded like your post from 9/1 indicated you expected the stock to react the same way this earnings as it had last earnings. That would be a stock reacting the same way twice. 
 

“I'm hoping for a  break below 96 to buy my shares back but before next earnings. Ido expect another pop next earnings. ”

I expect rcl to say earnings are up big and bookings never been so good. I do think compared to ccl and nclh rcl looks good. Ccl I think announced they quit building new ships. A analyst said that worries him that ccl is losing competitiveness. The debt is my worry. This is small money for me, I try to keep 100 shares of rcl but waited for it to look like it found a bottom. I do want to be in before next earnings.

 

I dont buy stocks I dont think will have good earnings. It might take a extra qtr or so but I want to see a pe, profitable earnings. I keep a whole lot more in dividend stocks and over weight oil. Cant buy everything. Imo for chips nvidia is dominating. I couldn't afford the taxes if I was flipping my whole personal portfolio. I just play with a few shares and rcl was so obvious it was going to sell off, was too high, I even sold short a qtr ago. Selling short doesnt exactly equal I'm gung ho on rcl. I documented I was short. But I did want to get back in rcl before earnings. I hold rcl not because it's a favorite but for the obc. I've documented every trade I've made on this piddling amt of rcl just for fun. 

 

My parents I've continued what they started last year flipping 6 month treasuries. Keeping trust money absolutely secure right now. Which is why I watch treasuries so close. I'm watching for a bigger break between 1 year and 6 month to indicate buyers believe rates peaked. Not yet.

 

We will know in a few weeks how rcl reacts to earnings. I believe they will be good. Im holding at this price thru earnings. At 100 I wasnt. It's the debt I worry about so I dont invest much here. Play money. I also worry about growth, as I see cruise price increases stalled. Hit a brick wall. 

 

I welcome anyone else who enjoys talking stocks opinions. I belong to stock groups and rcl was a trade, nothing more and went too high for them so they are out. Since this is a rcl group I'm talking rcl stock. If it bothers you or not interested scroll on by. For me I can be bullish at 86 or 87 but bearish over 100. It's a trading range. Actually I'd like to see rcl a little lower but its holding. 

[firefly333]

1 hour ago, mark290 said:

Sorry, I must have misunderstood. It sure sounded like your post from 9/1 indicated you expected the stock to react the same way this earnings as it had last earnings. That would be a stock reacting the same way twice. 
 

“I'm hoping for a  break below 96 to buy my shares back but before next earnings. Ido expect another pop next earnings. ”

Maybe bad terminology that I expect a favorable reaction to rcl earnings. Pop meaning it might be a temporary good reaction. It was hard to watch it find what looks like support, sitting on my hands. I posted when it was breaking below 90 that day and dropped like 4 more pts and got back in and documented it. 

 

Lots and lots of bad news the market been shrugging off. Talking heads all singing in chorus of happy days are here again. Never had a down year since 1930 4th year of a president. 3 months of not good inflation numbers. 

 

I think that article I posted was overly negative so expectations are really low will help earnings. I think lots of other stocks are also poised for good earnings. 

[BND]

We bought 100 shares strictly for the  OBC.  Our CFP is fine with it as we are getting that return on every cruise.  We currently have 11 cruises booked and have RCL stock OBC for every one of them.  It's not a stock we would buy for our portfolio otherwise.  It's just a stock we bought for one purpose and we pretty much ignore it otherwise.  We have other stocks in our IRA's that we bought for their growth and those are the ones we pay more attention to.  I think most RCI stockholders have it for the same reason we do.

[Baron Barracuda]

21 hours ago, yogimax said:

Can you send a link to this?  I can't find any information about it.

Form 8-K (link also available on RCL investor relations site under SEC filings)

 

https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&ref=317798163&type=PDF&symbol=RCL&cdn=5a82df69040b4add281b7168a5705d9b&companyName=Royal+Caribbean+Cruises+Ltd.&formType=8-K&dateFiled=2023-10-11

[Baron Barracuda]

While I fully expect RCL to post great 3q earnings I don't expect the stock to bounce much.  Most of the good news was already built into the price during the earlier run-up.  Market remains concerned about high fuel costs and rising interest rates.  Price drop in cruise stocks parallels pretty much mirrors action in other energy dependent / highly leveraged businesses like airlines.   A risk item no one is talking about however is how younger people (Royal's target demographic) will modify their spending in response to the resumption of student loan payments.

[yogimax]

32 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Form 8-K (link also available on RCL investor relations site under SEC filings)

 

https://app.quotemedia.com/data/downloadFiling?webmasterId=101533&ref=317798163&type=PDF&symbol=RCL&cdn=5a82df69040b4add281b7168a5705d9b&companyName=Royal+Caribbean+Cruises+Ltd.&formType=8-K&dateFiled=2023-10-11

Ha! Ha!  That's a 331 page filing.  Could you narrow it down a bit?

[firefly333]

42 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

While I fully expect RCL to post great 3q earnings I don't expect the stock to bounce much.  Most of the good news was already built into the price during the earlier run-up.  Market remains concerned about high fuel costs and rising interest rates.  Price drop in cruise stocks parallels pretty much mirrors action in other energy dependent / highly leveraged businesses like airlines.   A risk item no one is talking about however is how younger people (Royal's target demographic) will modify their spending in response to the resumption of student loan payments.

Certainly risk with the market weakening. Fewer extra xmas workers hired this year. I wouldnt touch a brick and mortar store stock with all the organized crime theft going on. It's one type I wouldn't touch with a ten ft pole but signs of slowing down everywhere. No one excited by amzn day. 

 

Rcl retesting support today and sure looking weak. I'm going with the theory Powell quits raising rates this close to presidential race, not because hes within range of his 2% target. He can still keep tightening with selling off paper. Getting harder to get a mortgage at any rate. ..it is friday and traders arent going to hold this weekend especially with so much unrest. Oil back to popping. Glad I'm heavy in oil.