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Hurrican Ivan

sail7seas

By sail7seas,
in Holland America Line

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Roboat

Roboat

Posted
Posted

 

Does everyone have this link to see the most recent status of Ivan? It's an excellent one and be sure to scroll down all the way to see all the various charts, graphs, etc. Needless to say, I click on it quite often;)

 

Click here: Tropical Weather Information

Excellent link, Heather. Thanks! That information enabled me to fine-tune some forecast models of my own:

185319004jTAaAM_ph.jpg

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Stevesan

Stevesan

Posted
Posted

I have watched 3 different channels this morning and each one is showing a different path once Ivan crosses over Cuba.

 

 

 

That is an amazing anomaly considering the U.S. has only one hurricane center which gets its forecast data from the same satellite and Hurricane Hunter planes. What other data is available for the divergent forecasts?

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CaptData

CaptData

Posted
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Metoraligists can sometiems think differently for each channel. One may say with the wind and sea it will go this way the next will say by history it will go this way. It is by no means an exact science. It is like torrnados they only can accurately give about 15 mins warning.

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CaptData

CaptData

Posted
Posted

Metoraligists can sometiems think differently for each channel. One may say with the wind and sea it will go this way, the next will say by history it will go this way. It is by no means an exact science. It is like torrnados they only can accurately give about 15 mins warning.

 

It has been a bad year for weather. Up here in Canada, we only get one or two torrnados a year where I live. This year there were 8. On landed less then a mile from me. We watched it form and come down. Because I live in a mobile went to my granddaughter's school. It's an underground school for just this reason.

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Orcrone

Orcrone

Posted
Posted
That is an amazing anomaly considering the U.S. has only one hurricane center which gets its forecast data from the same satellite and Hurricane Hunter planes. What other data is available for the divergent forecasts?
Although there is one set of data, there are a number of different models for forecasting a hurricane. Additionally, part of the model is the steering factors (high pressure, cold fronts, etc.). The effect that these steering factors have on a hurricane is of course based on the prediction of the location, strength, speed of these fronts, high pressure, low pressure zones. There are a number of different models for predicting these items. So the variability of predictions in these steering factors will vary the prediction of even a single hurricane model and multiplies the possibilities of the various hurricane prediction models.

 

For an example of some of these factors check out:

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/090853.shtml?

 

It's a discussion of hurricane Ivan and discusses the track based on different models of a low pressure front.

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jhannah

jhannah

Posted
Posted

Orcrone is correct. The same computer can plot different potential tracks based on the many variables. An individual meteorologist can consider the alternatives and, using his/her training and experience, can opt with a different scenario than another meteorologist. Much science is involved ... but Mother Nature often defies being put in a box.

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jhannah

jhannah

Posted
Posted

It's good they're doing it now, while there's still time to pack up and get to safer ground. I really feel for our friends in Florida. I'm sure my imagination can't even come close to comprehending what they're going through emotionally right now.

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Lois R Great Review Rare

Lois R

Posted
Posted

ok...this is going to sound like I am whining...but I don't mean it to...honest...

 

Do you think Saturday's cruise will go as scheduled?......I know my flight leaves ok tomorrow...but I wonder now...after getting to FLL will we sail?:eek:

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FlorenceItaly

FlorenceItaly

Posted
Posted

Lois - I think it will. I think you will leave ahead of IVAN. IF effecting FL, it is predicted around Sun/Mon. I am suppose to leave from Port Canaveral next Sunday, but PC is currently closed....so I may be departing from Miami...don't know...Really think you will be ahead of any problems.

 

Marie

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Lois R Great Review Rare

Lois R

Posted
Posted

Hi Marie:) I sure do hope so.....you know how after Charley came..everyone was wondering about a double whammy~which Frances gave us:( ...now, can you believe we might get a TRIPLE WHAMMY:mad:

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jollycruiser

jollycruiser

Posted
Posted
ok...this is going to sound like I am whining...but I don't mean it to...honest...

 

Do you think Saturday's cruise will go as scheduled?......I know my flight leaves ok tomorrow...but I wonder now...after getting to FLL will we sail?:eek:

I would suspect the cruise will go as scheduled. The storm should still be south of Cuba on Saturday. I would think that the "Z" captain will point the boat east and go full throttle. Should be out of harms way.

 

Here is a composite of all the current computer models. As you can see no one or no computer knows with certainty where Ivan will go!

 

http://www.boatus.com/hurricanes/hurricane_spaghetti2.asp

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localady

localady

Posted
Posted

No way are you whining Lois:( I am hopeful that Ivan will miss Florida entirely, and our prayers are with all who have been so battered this hurricane season as this one will be the one in the history books. God bless and we pray for a quiet weekend weather wise in Florida.

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Lithium

Lithium

Posted
Posted

This is one serious hurricane:

 

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IVAN

THIS MORNING RECENTLY REPORTED...AT 614 AM AST OR 1014Z...A

FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 154 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THEY ALSO

REPORTED A LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 920 MB...SUGGESTING THAT IVAN

MAY CONTAIN SURFACE WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE 160 MPH

INDICATED IN THE 5 AM AST ADVISORY. DROPSONDE WIND REPORTS ALSO

INDICATED WINDS OF NEAR 210 MPH AT AN ALTITUDE OF ABOUT 350 FEET

ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.

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Orcrone

Orcrone

Posted
Posted
This is one serious hurricane:

 

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING IVAN

THIS MORNING RECENTLY REPORTED...AT 614 AM AST OR 1014Z...A

FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 154 KT IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. THEY ALSO

REPORTED A LOWER CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 920 MB...SUGGESTING THAT IVAN

MAY CONTAIN SURFACE WINDS A LITTLE STRONGER THAN THE 160 MPH

INDICATED IN THE 5 AM AST ADVISORY. DROPSONDE WIND REPORTS ALSO

INDICATED WINDS OF NEAR 210 MPH AT AN ALTITUDE OF ABOUT 350 FEET

ABOVE THE OCEAN SURFACE.

This one is not as large as Frances, but right now a lot more intense. I've already did some research on airfare to get my mom up to us in the next day or so.
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Krazy Kruizers

Krazy Kruizers

Posted
Posted

DH had a doctor's appointment this morning and afterwards we went out for lunch.

Just got back and am reading and watching the various weather reports - doesn't look good.

Zuiderdam is presently in the western Caribbean and has to go through some of those rough waters if she heads above Cuba to return to Ft Lauderdale on Saturday.

If she goes south of Cuba - after Ivan has gone through the Caymans and Jamaica, it will take her a few hours longer to return to Ft Lauderdale.

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