Cleveland & D.C. cruisers..... help please!

Need opinions.. I am the leader of a large group travelling from SoCal to San Juan next January and have narrowed down 2 flight options, both originating from LAX redeye flights as follows:

Option 1: LAX --> CLE --> SJU

Option 2: LAX --> IAD --> SJU

Price difference is less than $5.00 pp

As I've explained to my group, I am not Mother Nature or God, and cannot predict the weather.

Many have said book a flight with a layover in a more southern state, but the flight options just don't meet our needs and the one I found through Dallas is $300 more r/t per person!

Furthermore, who's to say that the originating flight to LAX (prior to our departure) isn't coming from somewhere back east where there may be inclimate weather.

My thought is that any snow storm back east, mid-west, or whatever, could potentially create a problem for anyone travelling from anywhere nationwide. But that's me and that's the risk I take cruising every year in January.

With that said, what is your experience with cruising from/to/through Cleveland and D.C. in January?

Honestly, past experience at those airports really won't have any bearing on the weather occurring in January 2016. Neither of those airports is known for unreasonable delays.

The past 2 winters have been much more intense with regard to snowfall and delays occurring all winter long.

Best advice - if you are flying in day of cruise (especially with two long flight segments) - buy insurance !

I am flying from Ohio to Orlando in January 2016 for a cruise (only a 2 hour flight) - I wouldn't dream of trying this without insurance.

If I pulled up the correct flights, it seems like your layover in CLE will be 1hr and 25 minutes while your layover in IAD is only 45 minutes. There is NO way I would book a flight with only a 45 minute connection, specially in the winter. On the other hand CLE is more prone to winter weather than IAD, but as others have said, it's impossible to predict what the weather will be on your specific day of departure. If those are your only 2 options, then go with the CLE flights, just because of the longer layover time.

Another thing. Are you arriving in SJU on the morning of the cruise? If so, DON'T DO IT. Give yourself a day or two before the cruise. Your chances of NOT making it to SJU in time for your cruise if there's a delay are pretty high since both CLE and IAD offer just one lonely flight to SJU per day. If you misconnect at either city, chances are that you're spending an extra night or you're being rerouted through yet another city which could be a lengthy and time consuming process.

Once again, with the limited info available, I'd go with CLE. But I'd keep searching and at least try to connect through a hub with multiple daily flights to SJU, like ATL.

Need opinions.. I am the leader of a large group travelling from SoCal to San Juan next January and have narrowed down 2 flight options, both originating from LAX redeye flights as follows:

 

Option 1: LAX --> CLE --> SJU

 

Option 2: LAX --> IAD --> SJU

 

Price difference is less than $5.00 pp

 

As I've explained to my group, I am not Mother Nature or God, and cannot predict the weather.

 

Many have said book a flight with a layover in a more southern state, but the flight options just don't meet our needs and the one I found through Dallas is $300 more r/t per person!

 

Furthermore, who's to say that the originating flight to LAX (prior to our departure) isn't coming from somewhere back east where there may be inclimate weather.

 

My thought is that any snow storm back east, mid-west, or whatever, could potentially create a problem for anyone travelling from anywhere nationwide. But that's me and that's the risk I take cruising every year in January.

 

With that said, what is your experience with cruising from/to/through Cleveland and D.C. in January?

Flying in the day of your cruise is always risky business, and especially when you have connecting flights, but I'm sure you already know that. I looked online at the stats for on-time arrivals at both CLE and IAD for January 2014 (for comparison purposes). IAD shows a roughly 65% on-time arrival rate and CLE shows a roughly 57% on-time arrival rate. Is that a predictor for what's going to happen next January in either city? Probably not. It's only one item to consider. You can also narrow that information by individual carriers if you want or look at January 2015. Bureau of Transportation Statistics:

http://www.transtats.bts.gov/OT_Delay/OT_DelayCause1.asp?pn=1&Sel=A&Airport=CLE&Airport_Name=Cleveland, OH: Cleveland-Hopkins International

You might also consider what your alternative flight options are for that night if something were to delay or cancel your flight choice. Are there reasonable alternatives?

Is it necessary to fly as a group? Do groups get better rates on flights? I would tell them what cruise and when to be there, make recommendations from experience, and leave them to make their own way for San Juan. Then the risk is all theirs, not yours. EM

Flying in the day of your cruise is always risky business, and especially when you have connecting flights, but I'm sure you already know that. I looked online at the stats for on-time arrivals at both CLE and IAD for January 2014 (for comparison purposes). IAD shows a roughly 65% on-time arrival rate and CLE shows a roughly 57% on-time arrival rate. Is that a predictor for what's going to happen next January in either city? Probably not. It's only one item to consider. You can also narrow that information by individual carriers if you want or look at January 2015. Bureau of Transportation Statistics:

 

http://www.transtats.bts.gov/OT_Delay/OT_DelayCause1.asp?pn=1&Sel=A&Airport=CLE&Airport_Name=Cleveland, OH: Cleveland-Hopkins International

 

You might also consider what your alternative flight options are for that night if something were to delay or cancel your flight choice. Are there reasonable alternatives?

DC had a really bad winter this year. Of course...Chicago always seems to be about the same...bad lol. I have flown from both in winter and have to say I would choose IAD.

I would tell them what cruise and when to be there, make recommendations from experience, and leave them to make their own way for San Juan. Then the risk is all theirs, not yours. EM

I agree with this. This allows each person to shop for flights that best fits their needs and budgets. Some people may want to fly in a few days prior and enjoy awesome San Juan, others may want to fly on the cheapest flight they can find. Others may not want to do a red eye, or fly through specific cities even if it costs more, etc.

When I organized my family's Alaska cruise in 2013, I just sent out an email to the 14 family members traveling, informing them what cruise we were taking and when to be there by. We arrived in Seattle on 4 different flights over a 2 day span. It worked out wonderfully for everyone since each group could start the vacation at their own pace. We just planned on meeting the night before the cruise for dinner and to plan the next day. Once on the ship, we also agreed not to do the same exact activities all the time. Some of us had very small children, some had teenagers, and some were seniors. We were also on different budgets. So while some decided to go on a helicopter ride and go dog sledding on a glacier, others decided to take a hike through a national forest, and others decided to go kayaking.

Have fun planning!

as someone who lives in MD i can tell you from just a weather aspect definitely pick the D.C. airport for a layover. if there is a snow storm in the area there is always the snow line. the snow line is predictably the 95 corridor by BWI. so if you look at a map of MD below baltimore and to the east is interstate 95. so if a snowstorm hits it usually comes down from the great lakes through cleveland into MD then up towards boston etc. there will be heavier snow north and west of the 95 snow line. everything south and east will get a lot less snow or sometimes just sleet and rain. of course there are exceptions but 90% of the time this is what happens. i live in MD 26 miles north of baltimore. for example i will get 8 inches, baltimore would get 5 inches, south and east of the 95 corridor might get 2-3 inches. my sister lives in northern virginia and she would get nothing but rain.

Gotta tell you, I've lived in Cleveland for 20 years and they know how to handle snow. I often times wake up to a 12" snowfall overnight and we barely bat an eye.

One thing to think of, we rarely get ice. Snow will not be an issue in removal on the runways. Ice will be. DC seems to have a higher incidence of ice storms. I can't remember hearing of a time when CLE was in a serious delay that originated here. We get backed up from east coast messiness.

Gotta tell you, I've lived in Cleveland for 20 years and they know how to handle snow. I often times wake up to a 12" snowfall overnight and we barely bat an eye.

 

One thing to think of, we rarely get ice. Snow will not be an issue in removal on the runways. Ice will be. DC seems to have a higher incidence of ice storms. I can't remember hearing of a time when CLE was in a serious delay that originated here. We get backed up from east coast messiness.

i guess it will come down to personal preference. but if i had a choice between an airport that already has a foot of snow and it is still snowing. or an airport where it is cold and raining well that is an easy answer for me.

i don't think it matters if you know how to handle snow or drive in it or if you even bat an eye at snow. a foot of snow over night at a major airport is going to bring many issues to flights arriving and departing with major delays.

Need opinions.. I am the leader of a large group travelling from SoCal to San Juan

I say this with love and all due respect,,,

RUN,,,, run away as fast as you can.

Just like a party at your house,,, if you invite 50,,, 20 to 25 will show. By January, you will have a 40% to 60% no show

You are going to end up pissing somebody off or they are going to piss you off and kill a currently good relationship. Out of 30 people,,, 20 of them could have gotten cheaper flights,,,, if flight operations go TU,,,, 15 are going to blame you,,,, 5 of them will HATE the flights because they had loyalty perks if you had booked another airline,,,, I could go on and on

AND, unless things have changed within the past year or so, to get "Group" booking on an airline,, YOU have to pay for everyone's ticket in the entire group,,, then YOU must get reimbursed by each individual.

Been there, done that,,, lost the friends,,,, got the t-shirt.

Friends and family,,,, here's the cruise, here's the port we're sailing out of,, here' the date of the cruise,,,, here are my family's flight arrangements,,,, please feel free to join us.

Gotta tell you, I've lived in Cleveland for 20 years and they know how to handle snow. I often times wake up to a 12" snowfall overnight and we barely bat an eye.

Cities that are more prone to winter weather are usually much more prepared to handle it. During my career, I've been based anywhere from Miami to Washington DC to Chicago to Minneapolis to Detroit to Atlanta, and I would much prefer to fly through Detroit than through Washington with snow. Why? Because they can handle it. They have the equipment and the experience to do it. They can deice and plow runways with their eyes closed because they do it much more frequently.

I was based in Washington Dulles for several years back on my regional pilot years and that place would come to a screeching halt if we got the slightest dusting of snow. We would go into 4 hour delays waiting to get decided and for the runways to be cleared. Personnel would be working as slow as molasses because the last snow event that they had to deal with was the previous winter and they were rusty in their procedures. On the other end of the spectrum, I could go through Minneapolis in the middle of winter with heavy snow piling up and they would have us decided and ready to go in 30 minutes!

But all of this is just speculation. I wouldn't base my decision on whether there could be snow 7 months from now. I would look at the hard facts as mentioned before. How long is my layover, and what other flights are available from that airport should I miss my connection.

Living near Cleveland Hopkins and on some days, under the flight pattern, the airport experiences very minimal issues, even this winter which was tougher than normal. They have the equipment to handle the weather and maybe a small delay to de-ice.

Thank you everyone!! For clarification, we are NOT flying in on embarkation day, but rather the day before.

Maybe "large" group to me, isn't as big as others... we have 31 cabins booked. I anticipate 100% of this group to cruise.... these are regular cruisers, friends and family all booked under ES.

I've given the group the option of booking airline as a group or individually... out of 60+ people, only 30 people will be flying as part of the group. I've already put out my disclaimer and told everyone that they always have the option to purchase insurance, if there is a concern.

Getting back to the topic...... A lot of you said, what the airlines said about the airports, layover time, and CLE being better equipped to handle snow, as opposed to ice, etc. Since I'm not familiar with either airport at any time of the year, I do appreciate everyone's input, especially the people who live in those areas that fly out during the winter months :)

Vent... it's really annoying that everyone else can post threads about air, etc. that don't get moved, but mine always do because I post specific information in the title.... and not a generic "what would you do" post! For the record, most people search the main board :)

It's just so hit-or-miss. The north has more snow (usually) but better equipment; the south, on the other hand, shuts down at the drop of a hat. I recently avoided connecting through Chicago in February in favor of Dallas...big mistake. Dallas got bombarded by a whopping 3" of snow and everything was cancelled due to a lack of equipment. Chicago was clear as could be.

Vent... it's really annoying that everyone else can post threads about air, etc. that don't get moved, but mine always do because I post specific information in the title.... and not a generic "what would you do" post! For the record, most people search the main board :)

For what it's worth, most of the time, you will receive more accurate information on the air travel forum.

No one can predict with certainty, but I would choose the routing through IAD. Take into consideration that if you are stuck at an airport, which airport had more flights that may take you where you want to go if your flight has problems.

I hope you are booking through the airline's group travel department.

I've given the group the option of booking airline as a group or individually... out of 60+ people, only 30 people will be flying as part of the group. I've already put out my disclaimer and told everyone that they always have the option to purchase insurance, if there is a concern.

Have you checked *all* connecting possibilities between LAX and SJU? Other connecting cities that come to mind: ORD, MIA, IAH, JFK, BOS and I'm sure I've overlooked a few. I know some of these seem crazy, but the connection to SJU is covered far better with follow-on flights than CLE or IAD.

Are you checking fares for 30, or just for 1 person? Most airlines only allow 9 people max to be booked online; larger groups are booked through the airline's group desk. The fare for 1 or 2 does not reflect the group fare at all. The group fare will either be an average of the individual fares....or everyone pays the maximum fare required to accommodate the entire group. Just be sure everyone understands and agrees to probably paying a higher group fare than individual purchases. Otherwise things may get ugly when they compare what they paid to the people who booked on their own.

Another caution (been there, done this, never again): If the group booking requires payment at the time of booking, set a hard and fast payment deadline a few business days before the booking date. Only the people who have paid you in full will be booked. Otherwise be prepared to deal with "Sorry, I will pay you next week- my transmission blew up...."

It's good of you to do the heavy lifting for the group, just be sure to lay down the law in advance. Let us know what you find for the final itinerary.

Have you checked *all* connecting possibilities between LAX and SJU? Other connecting cities that come to mind: ORD, MIA, IAH, JFK, BOS and I'm sure I've overlooked a few. I know some of these seem crazy, but the connection to SJU is covered far better with follow-on flights than CLE or IAD.

 

Are you checking fares for 30, or just for 1 person? Most airlines only allow 9 people max to be booked online; larger groups are booked through the airline's group desk. The fare for 1 or 2 does not reflect the group fare at all. The group fare will either be an average of the individual fares....or everyone pays the maximum fare required to accommodate the entire group. Just be sure everyone understands and agrees to probably paying a higher group fare than individual purchases. Otherwise things may get ugly when they compare what they paid to the people who booked on their own.

 

Another caution (been there, done this, never again): If the group booking requires payment at the time of booking, set a hard and fast payment deadline a few business days before the booking date. Only the people who have paid you in full will be booked. Otherwise be prepared to deal with "Sorry, I will pay you next week- my transmission blew up...."

 

It's good of you to do the heavy lifting for the group, just be sure to lay down the law in advance. Let us know what you find for the final itinerary.

I've checked almost all options..... personally, I keep going back to waiting another 4-6 weeks and seeing what JetBlue has going through FLL. There are a bunch of options for getting to SJU from FLL. The benefit of going with United, other than the $440 r/t price, is that the initial deposit of $50/pp is the only payment that has to be made through me, as group leader. After final "utilization" date (November 9), everyone will call in thier own final payment.... if you've ever booked group travel before you know what a pain in the arse this is!!! Especially because most people think they should get a group discount.... which is not the case!

So here's what I'm contemplating.... booking United Airlines through Cleveland for $440 r/t with $50.00 pp fully refundable deposit. See what JetBlue and SW's schedules are when they are released, and if something better through FLL, then cancel United... nothing lost.

Also check San Diego if that's a viable option (I live equal drive time to SAN or LAX). Sometimes fares are lower out of SAN...enough to pay for the drive. Also check BUR, LGB, SNA, etc. Sometimes good fares pop up from the satellite airports.

A gross generalization, but JetBlue fares to SJU tend to just increase after the release date. However, JetBlue's new CEO is really monetizing the airline (new fees, less legroom to add more seats, etc). So their fare practices may be different from past experience.

Also check San Diego if that's a viable option (I live equal drive time to SAN or LAX). Sometimes fares are lower out of SAN...enough to pay for the drive. Also check BUR, LGB, SNA, etc. Sometimes good fares pop up from the satellite airports.

 

A gross generalization, but JetBlue fares to SJU tend to just increase after the release date. However, JetBlue's new CEO is really monetizing the airline (new fees, less legroom to add more seats, etc). So their fare practices may be different from past experience.

Yes, I've checked all viable options and LAX offers the best price with the best times for our group. I did just check UA's flights from CLE to SJU on our date of travel and there are several other flight options, and worst case, there are also flight options the following day (if we were to get stuck in CLE overnight for some reason). I typically shop airfare ad nauseam and so far it's paid off. Last January, got Southwest r/t for 12 people for $287 r/t per person :) booked outbound leg as group (probably won't do group again on SW, unless I am desperate because check-in with group SW is a major pain in the butt), and return flight on 3 different reservations. Totally worth it!

Our go-to from LAX to FLL has always been JetBlue redeye.... but I have noticed the prices have gone up. A few years ago, that flight was $139 and more recently it's over $200 (one-way). It sucks to think they might be going to more seats, more fees..... makes me think of Spirit and that's a big heck no for us!

I did just check UA's flights from CLE to SJU on our date of travel and there are several other flight options, and worst case, there are also flight options the following day (if we were to get stuck in CLE overnight for some reason).

The catch? You will have 30 people who need to get rebooked. :eek:

Good luck finding a flight with 30 available seats at the last minute.... especially since there would be a lot of people outside of your group likely needing to be rebooked as well, if weather is bad enough to strand you.

To each his own, but I would never want to put myself in the position of booking air for 30 people. As mentioned, if something happens it won't matter that you gave them full disclosure, it won't matter that you told them to buy travel insurance, and it won't matter that the blizzard is an act of God that no one could have controlled....most of them will blame YOU. Hopefully it all goes well, but it would make me very nervous. Good luck!

The catch? You will have 30 people who need to get rebooked. :eek:

Zoinks! These days, flights are so full that finding 1-3 seats can be hard enough. Can't imagine 30.

Our go-to from LAX to FLL has always been JetBlue redeye.... but I have noticed the prices have gone up. A few years ago, that flight was $139 and more recently it's over $200 (one-way). It sucks to think they might be going to more seats, more fees..... makes me think of Spirit and that's a big heck no for us!

Airfares have increased significantly in the past 1-2 years. I recall Nov 2012 fare LAX-SJU (roundtrip on AA) was $450-ish and exactly a year later it was around $600. The airlines have finally figured out how to be profitable and have adjusted supply to maximize revenue. Comparison to "a few years ago" is futile.

JetBlue isn't becoming Spirit, just a step closer to AA, UA, DL, etc. It's not "think they might"...the additional seats and new fees are fait accompli .

Another issue to consider--where is the flight from CLE coming from? We fly out of CLE often, and as others have said they do a great job of keeping runways clear. The only times we have had a problem was when the flight didn't arrive in CLE because of bad weather elsewhere. Since it has a better layover time and that you're going a day in advance I'd choose the CLE flight.