HAL is thinking big for its next-generation ships

[ironin]

IIRC, the Volendam is scheduled for dry dock in April next year.

[navybankerteacher]

How do you know? According to your signature, you have not tried one.

 

Celebrity lovers thought the same thing until they actually tried Solstice Class. Solstice has proven to be a huge hit.

 

My signature showed that I had tried Sapphire Princess (2,600 pax), Celebrity Millenium (1,950) and HAL's Noordam, Oosterdam and Zuiderdam (1,850-1,920) --and that I was comparing them to the preferred R and S class (1,200+/-). That was the "bigger not better" I mentioned.

 

As far as I am concerned, the 3,500+ floating carnivals are unmentionable. However, I am glad that they exist because they absorb the crowds who would otherwise mob the smaller ships; and, presumably, satisfy those crowds who want all the climbing walls, skating rinks, bowling alleys, ice bars, etc., of which I can get plenty when ashore -- which I think is where they belong.

[janmcn]

IF they go with the mega ships they'll be no different from any of the other lines and will have less reason for some of us to choose them! We choose HAL BECAUSE of the smaller ships (didn't even like the Z'dam size) and the itineraries they have. I have no desire to disembark in a port with thousands of others from my own ship and several others! It's bad enough already in AK and Med ports I've been in.

 

Please...HAL...listen to the loyalists among us...build "nice size" ships to take the place of those that are getting older (Prinsendam, etc.)....you'll keep your loyal following that way. Otherwise we might as well just start looking at all the Norwegian, Princess, etc. lines...there will be no difference.

[navybankerteacher]

Of course HAL wants to maximize profits - it is obviiously more profitable to haul 3,500 passengers around with just a slightly larger crew than is required to move 1,200. However, gross numbers of passengers is not the only factor. Some passengers will be interested in destinations of the ships, not just amusements aboard the ships.

 

HAL's "small" Veendam is herself too chubby to get into St.George -- probably the best port in Bermuda. The mega-ships can't even get into Hamilton -- and are limited to the tourist-trap Dockyard. As more and more ships outsize themselves, many really desireable ports (Marigot on St. Martin, St. Barts, etc. will become unreachable -- of course, the lines with the super ships can become even more profitable by simply sailing 20 miles out, cutting their engines to save fuel, and drifting for a week to satisfy their customers for whom the shipboard amenities are the big draw.

 

Then some whizzes at the major lines will get around to thinking of expanding their market by shrinking their ships.

[igraf]

The trouble with that is that we (the small vocal group on this thread) may not represent the market at all.

 

igraf

 

 

 

The cynic in me has to wonder if there really is more to this story. As in "Let's run it up the flagpole and see if anyone salutes it".

 

Really, what better way to test out the idea, but to have it leak, then check on the response on such forums as Cruise Critic, etc.

[Druke I]

I'm not sure that it is fair to compare the cost of Oceania's newbuild to that of HAL ships, as Marina is built/outfitted to a different and perhaps higher standard than HAL's mass market ships.

 

Size might be very comparable to HAL's S class, but detail is different (not unlike the automobiles Mercury and Lincoln - same basic body, but very different trim levels).

[Homosassa]

My husband and I cruise HAL for the following reasons:

 

Traditional dining with no chance of being forced into open dining against our wishes and passengers that value the specialness of that dining experience with willing following of the recommended dress .....Oh, that's right - delete this one!

 

The lower promenade with it's abundance of deck chairs open to anyone ...OH!!! :confused:

 

The openness of the upper decks where you can sit next to the rail or on the fantail without worrying about having to reserve a cabana that blocks evryone else's view out to the water....OOPs!!!:(

 

Small ships without herds of people.... What did you say the plan was for the future???:eek:

 

Hmmm- looks like being true to the brand is something different than what I think is HAL's traditions.

[LAFFNVEGAS]

Well as usual my feelings are in the minority but I am going to post anyway. I love the Vista and Signature Class ships ( they are actually close to the same size of ships as the newer ships of NCL until the new Epic came out). My personal feeling when ever I have been on the S and R I felt they were too small, the ride of the ship is not nearly as nice as the larger ships, they felt far more crowded because the ratio to passenger and space is actually less than the larger ships for passenger commen areas. I think many are convinced maybe brainwashed to believe that less numbers mean less crowding and getting on a large ship with more passengers even before they board they just know it will be crowded even if it is not. :rolleyes:

While I was not impressed with the Princess Product it had absolutely nothing to do with the ship which was the Crown. I actually loved the ship itself, the size was great, what Princess had to offer for everyone was a plus because there was more room for more options of theings to do. The ship handled itself far better in some moderate seas especially in the aft. It never ever felt crowded and embarking and debarking a ship was a breeze not the conjestion that happens on S and R class ships.

I am one that actually hopes that HAL takes that next step in the near future to go to the 110,000 ton ships. Just look at the amazing things they have done with the Euordam and Nieuw Amsterdam, just think what they will be able to add with a lot more space :)

[fann1sh]

The cynic in me has to wonder if there really is more to this story. As in "Let's run it up the flagpole and see if anyone salutes it".

 

Really, what better way to test out the idea, but to have it leak, then check on the response on such forums as Cruise Critic, etc.

 

 

I suspect RuthC has got this exactly right.

 

So, like a salivating Pavlovian dog :rolleyes: I emailed HAL about the rumour, and told them I'd love to see a newbuild the size of an R class. If the HAL newbuilds were the size of Solstice class, it might push me over the edge to try X, because that line has, um...other features I won't mention lest anyone accuse me of dragging us OT....tempting for me, but not important enough to leave HAL over, unless ships were the same size.

 

 

And yes: in the email, I spelled out what tempts me to try X.

[Pettifogger]

DutchByAssociation: Did I correctly understand you to conclude that to build an S Class would cost 92% of the cost of building a Signature Class?

[casamariposa]

I don't care what Nostradamus says about 2012. My passport doesn't expire until 2013. Ergo, I am going to get my money's worth out of it!

[scopewest]

Laffinvegas, you read my mind and posted exactly what I was thinking! HAL, I can't wait to sail on this new class of ship.

[DutchByAssociation]

DutchByAssociation: Did I correctly understand you to conclude that to build an S Class would cost 92% of the cost of building a Signature Class?

 

My logic is all in the post I have on the previous page... I know it's "fuzzy math" and a lot of that is becauise I don't have the info on what the S Class cost in the day and no way to convert that to "today's dollars"

 

HOWEVER, the Nieuw Amsterdam that was billed and paid for in Euros is not all too different from the cost of Oceania's new ship by Fincantieri that is almost down to the finest detail identical in size to the S Class.

 

Someone else mentioned an example about "trim levels" and such, and true, that's a good point. However to do a new design (let's all admit it, there are things that could make the S Class a little more "user friendly" like a third set of elevators) will cost more money, as a prototype always does... So at least the first in a new series of S Class size for HAL (something a lot of people on here express) wouldn't be much poff from that first Oceania I would suspect.

[RevNeal]

HAL has not suggested that 15 ships is as large as the HAL fleet can or ever will get. In the past the fleet has, indeed, grown without retiring any existing vessels: the Eurodam and the Nieuw Amsterdam were added to the fleet without retiring any of the fleet's older ships. Why is anybody thinking, speculating, or surmising that for HAL to add more and even larger ships to the fleet they will automatically have to retire any of the S or R ships? They have not stated that 15 ships is as large as the fleet will ever go, nor have they indicated an interest in getting rid of the S or R ships. Hence, to just assume that such will be the case if the Line moves forward with larger new-builds is unwarranted.

 

Indeed, given the amount of money that HAL has recently poured into the S and Rs and the Prinsendam, and how much money they plan on pouring into them over the next several years in terms of upgrades, expansions, refurbishments, etc., I just don't see the Line jettisoning them anytime soon even if new and larger ships are brought into service by 2014 or 2015.

 

The S and R ships, and the Prinsendam, are greatly beloved by many of the Line's most loyal and frequent repeat-cruisers. These vessels have the ability to go places the larger ships simply can't go, providing the Line with the ability to service niche markets and exotic itineraries than no other ship and few major Lines can. Unlike some the Line's older, former vessels, these ships are not sub-standard in terms of safety standards or environmental standards, and are fully capable of being upgraded with newer technology as time goes on. While their passenger complements may be smaller than industry nominal-standards, this actually may be helpful in some markets where there is an interest in providing service but where there simply isn't a large-enough passenger base to justifying multiple cruises with a 3000 passenger ship. In other words, the eight S and R ships and the Prinsendam all have many positives which contribute to their retention by the Line, and few negatives that can't be offset by the Line simply having and operating other, larger, vessels on those huge-ship mass-market itineraries.

 

I love and prefer the S and R class ships. I have enjoyed my cruises aboard the Vistas, and will enjoy future cruises aboard these ships ... the Noordam is lovely and, every inch, a HAL vessel even though she and the other Vistas are bigger than I would like. Unfortunately, I was disappointed with the Eurodam. While there were definitely things I liked about the ship, I couldn't shake the feeling that she was just too dam big -- too "un-HAL-like" in terms of passenger capacity -- it's as if they were trying to pack far too many people into too small of space. Other Lines do this and get away with it, but it didn't feel to me like the HAL that I've come to know and love. I'll cruise aboard the Nieuw Amsterdam, if only to "collect" her for my fleet, however I do not desire, nor look for special opportunities to cruise aboard, these vessels. I know I'll take heat from HAL and from certain quarters for saying this, but that's how I feel.

[YXU AC*SE]

Indeed, given the amount of money that HAL has recently poured into the S and Rs and the Prinsendam, and how much money they plan on pouring into them over the next several years in terms of upgrades, expansions, refurbishments, etc., I just don't see the Line jettisoning them anytime soon even if new and larger ships are brought into service by 2014 or 2015.

 

 

With the number of brands (eleven), and breadth of market that Carnival covers with those brands, I am not sure that one can safely assume that any capital improvements made to the S and R classes and Prinsendam will ensure they remain with in HAL's fleet.

 

Carnival could easily re-purpose those ships within its existing brand line-up without stranding the sunk capital. As the now-Prinsendam was moved out of Cunard as the Royal Viking Sun, to Seabourn as the Seabourn Sun; or the Cunard transfers to Seabourn of the Sea Godess I and II; or the Westerdam landing within Costa; or P&O's Atermis and Oceana being transferred from Princess (and so on ...), I think there is ample evidence pointing to the contrary. The current adding of cabins through SOEII will only serve to make the ship more cash flow positive for whichever brand might acquire them at some point in the future.

 

Taking a marketing view of things, how Holland America is being viewed as a brand today (by today's customers) may or more probably may not be how HAL (and Carnival) view how the brand should to evolve in the future -- whether we as pax like it or not. All one needs to do is remember the new 'Retreat' concept, or the additions of the 'Loft' to see that HAL is thinking beyond the well-travelled septuagenarian set.

 

Scott.

[Copper10-8]

With the number of brands (eleven), and breadth of market that Carnival covers with those brands, I am not sure that one can safely assume that any capital improvements made to the S and R classes and Prinsendam will ensure they remain with in HAL's fleet.

 

Carnival could easily re-purpose those ships within its existing brand line-up without stranding the sunk capital. As the now-Prinsendam was moved out of Cunard as the Royal Viking Sun, to Seabourn as the Seabourn Sun; or the Cunard transfers to Seabourn of the Sea Godess I and II; or the Westerdam landing within Costa; or P&O's Atermis and Oceana being transferred from Princess (and so on ...), I think there is ample evidence pointing to the contrary. The current adding of cabins through SOEII will only serve to make the ship more cash flow positive for whichever brand might acquire them at some point in the future.

 

Taking a marketing view of things, how Holland America is being viewed as a brand today (by today's customers) may or more probably may not be how HAL (and Carnival) view how the brand should to evolve in the future -- whether we as pax like it or not. All one needs to do is remember the new 'Retreat' concept, or the additions of the 'Loft' to see that HAL is thinking beyond the well-travelled septuagenarian set.

 

Scott.

 

Well said, Scott! HAL is in the business to make money, that's the bottom line. If Mr. Stein and his board, and more importantly, Mr. Micky and the big board of directors of the Carnival Corporation, feel that it is in their best interest to have bigger ships built with more pax who will spent more money, guess what? Fincantieri will build them. If that means, the current/oldest ships, that hold less pax so make less $$ (think P-dam + the 4 "Esses" at a minimum) must go, they will, in a heartbeat. Only time will tell how far (or near) in the future that will happen

[DutchByAssociation]

With the number of brands (eleven), and breadth of market that Carnival covers with those brands, I am not sure that one can safely assume that any capital improvements made to the S and R classes and Prinsendam will ensure they remain with in HAL's fleet.

 

Carnival could easily re-purpose those ships within its existing brand line-up without stranding the sunk capital. As the now-Prinsendam was moved out of Cunard as the Royal Viking Sun, to Seabourn as the Seabourn Sun; or the Cunard transfers to Seabourn of the Sea Godess I and II; or the Westerdam landing within Costa; or P&O's Atermis and Oceana being transferred from Princess (and so on ...), I think there is ample evidence pointing to the contrary. The current adding of cabins through SOEII will only serve to make the ship more cash flow positive for whichever brand might acquire them at some point in the future.

 

Taking a marketing view of things, how Holland America is being viewed as a brand today (by today's customers) may or more probably may not be how HAL (and Carnival) view how the brand should to evolve in the future -- whether we as pax like it or not. All one needs to do is remember the new 'Retreat' concept, or the additions of the 'Loft' to see that HAL is thinking beyond the well-travelled septuagenarian set.

 

Scott.

 

Why would HAL put the Explorations Cafe and soon the Digital Workshop (concepts NO other brand has) on a ship about to leave its fleet? Seems like a waste of money to me...

 

Why would HAL create a new concept called Mix and Showroom at Sea and put them on ships that they were about to transfer/sell/charter. Seems like a waste of money to me.

 

Why take a corner of the Lido on every single ship in the fleet (excl. Prinsendam due to space limitations) and put in Canaletto. The only other line that uses a corner of the Lido for an Italian dining area is a couple of the older NCL ships. Seems like a waste of money to me.

 

I understand the point you believe you're making, but in this particular instance you are not correct.

[YXU AC*SE]

Internal branding aside, what are Showroom at Sea, Caneletto, Mix, Explorations Cafe -- oh yes, a show lounge, an alternative resto, midship lounges, and a coffee bar. All elements that other Carnival brands have, as well as non-Carnival brands. I don't think they are a unique selling proposition to HAL once one removes the branding. I don't have an answer to your Digital Workshop other than to say on younger skewing brands it probably wouldn't even be relevant.

 

And as mentioned, if you re-purpose the ships within the many brands of Carnival, your ROIC (return on invested capital) calculation simply moves cash from your left pocket to you right.

 

I certainly hope that HAL doesn't get rid of its smaller ships (actually, until my Eurodam booking next month, I have pointedly gone out of my way to avoid the Vista and Signature sized ships). That said, with cruisers demanding lower per diems that larger capacity ships typically provide, IMHO with its smaller capacity ships HAL may be pursuing a niche market that may or may not be economically sustainable in the future.

 

Scott.

[Taxguy77]

Oh, please, no!

 

I am all for innovation, but bigger equates to longer walk to the dining room, then clear to the other end of the ship for a show. Of course, this could mean weight loss in stead of gain, but still....

 

For those of us who can get along fine with a cane but are limited in range per walk, it means Take a different ship!

[igraf]

The answer to all three questions is that these upgrade costs, though large for you or me, are nominal for HAL and were deemed necessary to keep the older ships interesting for a few more years.

 

HAL will run as many ships as are profitable, but if there are cutbacks then I strongly suspect that the older ships will go first.

 

igraf

 

 

 

 

 

Why would HAL put the Explorations Cafe and soon the Digital Workshop (concepts NO other brand has) on a ship about to leave its fleet? Seems like a waste of money to me...

 

Why would HAL create a new concept called Mix and Showroom at Sea and put them on ships that they were about to transfer/sell/charter. Seems like a waste of money to me.

 

Why take a corner of the Lido on every single ship in the fleet (excl. Prinsendam due to space limitations) and put in Canaletto. The only other line that uses a corner of the Lido for an Italian dining area is a couple of the older NCL ships. Seems like a waste of money to me.

 

I understand the point you believe you're making, but in this particular instance you are not correct.

[RevNeal]

With the number of brands (eleven), and breadth of market that Carnival covers with those brands, I am not sure that one can safely assume that any capital improvements made to the S and R classes and Prinsendam will ensure they remain with in HAL's fleet.

 

Carnival could easily re-purpose those ships within its existing brand line-up without stranding the sunk capital. As the now-Prinsendam was moved out of Cunard as the Royal Viking Sun, to Seabourn as the Seabourn Sun; or the Cunard transfers to Seabourn of the Sea Godess I and II; or the Westerdam landing within Costa; or P&O's Atermis and Oceana being transferred from Princess (and so on ...), I think there is ample evidence pointing to the contrary. The current adding of cabins through SOEII will only serve to make the ship more cash flow positive for whichever brand might acquire them at some point in the future.

 

Taking a marketing view of things, how Holland America is being viewed as a brand today (by today's customers) may or more probably may not be how HAL (and Carnival) view how the brand should to evolve in the future -- whether we as pax like it or not. All one needs to do is remember the new 'Retreat' concept, or the additions of the 'Loft' to see that HAL is thinking beyond the well-travelled septuagenarian set.

 

High-fiving aside, while it is true that Carnival Corp could transfer the smaller ships to another Line, that still seems less likely to me than HAL running a fleet with MORE ships capable of servicing -- profitably -- more exotic markets as well as the mass market itineraries. That is, after all, what the Line has been transitioned into doing as it has expanded from past the S and R fleet into the Vistas and, now, the Signatures. It appears that operational and ship diversity is something that the HAL brand of the Carnival Corp had been trending toward, with the ability to service both the mass market itineraries of the Caribbean as well as the less-well-traveled (by US-based Lines) itineraries like those in the South-Pacific, Australian, and Asian markets. If HAL can do this and make a profit at it, I can't imagine that they'll change course and do something different. And, you are correct, the "Retreat" and "Loft" concepts, as well as "Mix," the Lanai cabins, and the added cabins on the aft of the Ss and the Rotterdam, all point to the fact that HAL knows that they have to change, grow, and adapt to survive. Dutch's point is valid, however, in that it would appear that HAL believes that they can do this with the older, smaller ships all playing a role.

 

My point remains valid. There is NO REASON to just automatically assume that the addition of newer, still larger ships to the fleet must occasion the departure of the S-class vessels. Will they, one-day, be retired? Sure. But that day is probably further off than the addition of any new ships by mid-decade. With the current Fleet composition, even with no new ships for 3 or 4 years, HAL has an incredible operational diversity and an ability to offer cruises to just about any market on the planet. Over time the fleet's crew-levels will become accustomed to staffing this number of positions aboard ship and the sensed feeling of staffing-quality cuts and crew-thinning will vanish and the existing and future staff becomes better trained and used to dealing with the dynamic of a fleet of 15 ships.

[kazu]

Of course HAL wants to maximize profits - it is obviiously more profitable to haul 3,500 passengers around with just a slightly larger crew than is required to move 1,200. However, gross numbers of passengers is not the only factor. Some passengers will be interested in destinations of the ships, not just amusements aboard the ships.

 

HAL's "small" Veendam is herself too chubby to get into St.George -- probably the best port in Bermuda. The mega-ships can't even get into Hamilton -- and are limited to the tourist-trap Dockyard. As more and more ships outsize themselves, many really desireable ports (Marigot on St. Martin, St. Barts, etc. will become unreachable -- of course, the lines with the super ships can become even more profitable by simply sailing 20 miles out, cutting their engines to save fuel, and drifting for a week to satisfy their customers for whom the shipboard amenities are the big draw.

 

Then some whizzes at the major lines will get around to thinking of expanding their market by shrinking their ships.

 

I don't know. We pay a premium (especially for suites) to go on HAL. If they go the other route, they will have to reduce prices because all those mariners will be reluctant to book. guaranteed.

[igraf]

I don't know if that is really true. HAL's fares are generally similar to fares on Princess and Celebrity, and not at all like the premium fares on the likes of Crystal and Oceania. The only premium HAL fares are for verandas on the older ships, which is why those ships might be reduced in number.

 

igraf

 

 

 

 

I don't know. We pay a premium (especially for suites) to go on HAL. If they go the other route, they will have to reduce prices because all those mariners will be reluctant to book. guaranteed.

[DutchByAssociation]

I tend to agree with this statement the most, with one modification

 

There is NO REASON to just automatically assume that the addition of newer, still larger ships to the fleet must occasion the departure of

ANYTHING

[Krazy Kruizers]

We have sailed on the Grand Princess a few times. Once when she entered service in 1998. She was 109,000 gross tons. We never felt crowded on that ship.

 

So if HAL wants to build a 100,000 gt ship -- fine by me.

 

The only difference is the number of passengers -- if memory is correct I think we had only 2700 passengers - not certain of her exact capacity.

 

We have gotten to love the Vista and Signature class ships.