CCL stock gets hit this morning on earnings news:

[drowelf]

21 hours ago, rkacruiser said:

 

Absolutely proper observation!  When the economy went into the tank in the late 2008 and the cruise line prices sank, I kept my position in CCL and sold my RCI stock.  As the situation began to improve, I increased my original holdings of RCI at just above its bottom.  CCL, of course, had improved, but, stupidly, did not buy more then.  Those shares of RCI have significantly "moved" positively.  My original CCL holdings have also done OK, but not to the same extent.  That difference has puzzled me for some time.

Totally agree. I've done the same thing over the years. Sold at some highs and then bought back in at or near the bottom on both CCL and RCI. One of the nice things is that you only have to hold the stock within 6 months of your cruise, so you don't actually have to have it in hand when you sail. Also I generally hold more RCL than CCL, as it seems to have greater price swings.

[HokiePoq]

On 6/20/2019 at 10:48 AM, Tampa Girl said:

 

Interesting.  How do you figure that?  Are you counting in the dividends, BTW?

The Wall Street Journal article I read this morning said the dividend would be reduced.  I'm a triple loser.  My Carnival stock will be less profitable (still love the benefit in OBC which is great) and my NCL stock is down and my blasted Cuba cruise on Oceania is dead in the water costing me over 5K (for complicated reasons I can't cancel easily).

[cowmilker]

Well, that will do me in if they reduce the dividend.  My broker does not want me to buy it in the first place.  It's one thing to do so if it's $20/share. It's another thing at $50.

[DaveOKC]

3 hours ago, HokiePoq said:

The Wall Street Journal article I read this morning said the dividend would be reduced.  I'm a triple loser.  My Carnival stock will be less profitable (still love the benefit in OBC which is great) and my NCL stock is down and my blasted Cuba cruise on Oceania is dead in the water costing me over 5K (for complicated reasons I can't cancel easily).

Can you post this article?  This is the one I saw on Friday and no mention of cutting dividend:

 

By 

Laura Forman

June 21, 2019 4:29 pm ET

 

Carnival Corp CCL -4.45% oration may be exciting travelers at sea, but its investors aren’t having much fun.

On Thursday, Carnival surprised Wall Street with an unscheduled earnings report for its fiscal second quarter ended May 31. Results were mixed with adjusted earnings per share besting management’s guidance, but still falling year over year. Guidance was less thrilling. Carnival lowered its full year earnings forecast it gave in March from $4.35 to $4.55 to a lower, tighter range of $4.25 to $4.35 - a forewarning of choppy waters ahead.

In a conference call for investors, Carnival cited several factors it expected to weigh on earnings this year, including new restrictions imposed by the Trump administration on travel to Cuba, which took effect earlier this month. Carnival said the change, which meant diverting Havana-bound passengers to alternate destination ports on little notice, was “disruptive,” and that it must now select “lower-yield” destinations.

Treading WaterCarnival Corp.Source: FactSet

Jan. ’19MarchMay4446485052545658$60

Driving Carnival’s unexpected report Thursday was news that the company would be canceling three coming voyages for the Carnival Vista because of issues affecting the vessel’s maximum cruising speed. Carnival said it would need to remove the relatively new ship from service for 17 days in July. It has a passenger capacity of nearly 4,000, according to Carnival’s website. The cruise line says it operates 104 ships with 243,000 total lower berths around the world.

 

Brand Ambassador and senior cruise director for Carnival John Heald posted the Vista news Thursday on Facebook, apologizing to customers affected and outlining compensation, which includes a full refund and a full credit for a new cruise booking, among other things. The post got more than 1,400 comments in a number of hours, most of them praising Carnival’s customer service. If only smiles were free: the company said it expects voyage disruptions to Carnival Vista to negatively impact full-year earnings per share by as much as $0.10.

Perhaps the strongest wave came in the news of slowing demand from travelers in continental Europe. The company said soft demand in the region would result in lower revenue yields in the second half of the year. A regional slowdown could disproportionately affect Carnival relative to competitors. According to UBS leisure analyst Robin Farley, roughly 20% of Carnival’s customers come from this area compared with about 5-7% for Royal Caribean Cruises, Ltd. Further, Ms. Farley said some of Carnival’s brands source heavily from their home countries, including Germany’s AIDA Cruises and Italy’s Costa Cruises, while lines operated by competitors have more optionality.

Carnival’s stock tanked in response to the bad news, closing down around 8% Thursday and by another 4% by Friday afternoon. Carnival’s stock is now down more than 5% year-to-date. And while other major cruise stocks declined in sympathy, Royal Caribean Cruises Ltd. and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. were up 18% and 21% this year through midday trading Friday, respectively.

While Carnival is known to guide conservatively and its stock is trading near its 12-month lows based on forward price to earnings, investors would be wise to keep their hatches battened down until it becomes clear when European demand will rebound.

Write to Laura Forman at laura.forman@wsj.com

[HokiePoq]

7 hours ago, DaveOKC said:

Can you post this article?  This is the one I saw on Friday and no mention of cutting dividend:

 

By 

Laura Forman

June 21, 2019 4:29 pm ET

 

Carnival Corp CCL -4.45% oration may be exciting travelers at sea, but its investors aren’t having much fun.

On Thursday, Carnival surprised Wall Street with an unscheduled earnings report for its fiscal second quarter ended May 31. Results were mixed with adjusted earnings per share besting management’s guidance, but still falling year over year. Guidance was less thrilling. Carnival lowered its full year earnings forecast it gave in March from $4.35 to $4.55 to a lower, tighter range of $4.25 to $4.35 - a forewarning of choppy waters ahead.

In a conference call for investors, Carnival cited several factors it expected to weigh on earnings this year, including new restrictions imposed by the Trump administration on travel to Cuba, which took effect earlier this month. Carnival said the change, which meant diverting Havana-bound passengers to alternate destination ports on little notice, was “disruptive,” and that it must now select “lower-yield” destinations.

 

Treading WaterCarnival Corp.Source: FactSet

Jan. ’19MarchMay4446485052545658$60

Driving Carnival’s unexpected report Thursday was news that the company would be canceling three coming voyages for the Carnival Vista because of issues affecting the vessel’s maximum cruising speed. Carnival said it would need to remove the relatively new ship from service for 17 days in July. It has a passenger capacity of nearly 4,000, according to Carnival’s website. The cruise line says it operates 104 ships with 243,000 total lower berths around the world.

 

Brand Ambassador and senior cruise director for Carnival John Heald posted the Vista news Thursday on Facebook, apologizing to customers affected and outlining compensation, which includes a full refund and a full credit for a new cruise booking, among other things. The post got more than 1,400 comments in a number of hours, most of them praising Carnival’s customer service. If only smiles were free: the company said it expects voyage disruptions to Carnival Vista to negatively impact full-year earnings per share by as much as $0.10.

Perhaps the strongest wave came in the news of slowing demand from travelers in continental Europe. The company said soft demand in the region would result in lower revenue yields in the second half of the year. A regional slowdown could disproportionately affect Carnival relative to competitors. According to UBS leisure analyst Robin Farley, roughly 20% of Carnival’s customers come from this area compared with about 5-7% for Royal Caribean Cruises, Ltd. Further, Ms. Farley said some of Carnival’s brands source heavily from their home countries, including Germany’s AIDA Cruises and Italy’s Costa Cruises, while lines operated by competitors have more optionality.

Carnival’s stock tanked in response to the bad news, closing down around 8% Thursday and by another 4% by Friday afternoon. Carnival’s stock is now down more than 5% year-to-date. And while other major cruise stocks declined in sympathy, Royal Caribean Cruises Ltd. and Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. were up 18% and 21% this year through midday trading Friday, respectively.

While Carnival is known to guide conservatively and its stock is trading near its 12-month lows based on forward price to earnings, investors would be wise to keep their hatches battened down until it becomes clear when European demand will rebound.

Write to Laura Forman at laura.forman@wsj.com

Maybe I'm misunderstanding but this is why I thought dividend will be lower:   

Carnival lowered its full year earnings forecast it gave in March from $4.35 to $4.55 to a lower, tighter range of $4.25 to $4.35 - Carnival lowered its full year earnings forecast it gave in March from $4.35 to $4.55 to a lower, tighter range of $4.25 to $4.35 - 

Thanks for posting the article.  Don't use our online account since we get print edition.

[drowelf]

16 hours ago, cowmilker said:

Well, that will do me in if they reduce the dividend.  My broker does not want me to buy it in the first place.  It's one thing to do so if it's $20/share. It's another thing at $50.

100 shares of CCL even at $50 is only $5000. We hold ours in our IRA-SEP accounts as part of the big mix of stocks/ETFs/etcs, so its not like its a large % of the total portfolio. Taking at least 1 or 2 cruises of 7 days or more nets $200-$500 OBC. That is a pretty good return, plus the dividend I'd say. 

 

Also I'll repeat an early statement. Regardless of the wishes of my broker, if I tell them to buy/sell xxx shares of stock I expect them to execute the order or I'll be looking for a new broker. Advice is one thing, but ultimately, its my investments. Over the years I've bought/sold shares at times which put me at odds with my broker, but hey over the long run, I've hit winners more often than losers.

[GenghisQuan]

On 6/22/2019 at 12:08 AM, caribill said:

 

a) Effect of the Cuba ban is several cents a share. Many people booked those cruises specifically because of the Cuba stop(s). Cancellations are being allowed with full refunds and a future cruise credit given even if past final payment time. Also, many of the cruises with a stop in Cuba were shorter than seven days and there is not a big demand for those shorter cruises without Cuba on the itinerary.

 

b) The propulsion problem with one of their newest Carnival ships is costing about eight cents a share. Several voyages are cancelled with full refunds and future cruise credits also given. Two voyages had an extra day added to them at no cost to passengers including daily gratuities and any beverage or internet package that had been purchased. Also, being a very new ship the pricing is higher than normal and the operating cost is lower, so profit lost by the outage is more than if an older ship had the same problem.

 

c) The Corporation has 18 ships in Alaska this season and Alaska continues to be a "high-yielding" market, but currently pricing is lower than the pricing of last year. Also, although passenger count of the cruise ship is higher, participation on the pre- or post-cruise land extensions cannot go up because the infrastructure is not there to accommodate such growth.

 

d) Although bookings and pricing are up for the North American brands, they are down for the European brands. So far Brexit is not a negative factor,

Hi Caribill, could you share with us  how you came by the valuations for how many cents/share a, b, c, and d should actually be worth? Probably going in on another 50 shares to make my 100 soon.

[Gail & Marty sailing away]

On 6/20/2019 at 9:30 AM, KirkNC said:

I have a negative basis in the stock thanks to the shareholders benefit.

Us to must have collected 70 plus times

[DaveOKC]

On 6/23/2019 at 5:27 AM, HokiePoq said:

Maybe I'm misunderstanding but this is why I thought dividend will be lower:   

Carnival lowered its full year earnings forecast it gave in March from $4.35 to $4.55 to a lower, tighter range of $4.25 to $4.35 - Carnival lowered its full year earnings forecast it gave in March from $4.35 to $4.55 to a lower, tighter range of $4.25 to $4.35 - 

Thanks for posting the article.  Don't use our online account since we get print edition.

I think you read too much into the article.  Companies miss earnings expectations all the time without reducing the dividend payout.  CCL dividend is $2.00, which you need to compare to the expected earning (now expected to be about $4.30).  Having "coverage" of over 2 to 1 (earnings divided by dividend) is considered to be good coverage.  Of course, many other things have to be considered when a company sets its dividend, but still this looks safe to me at this time.

 

Having said all this, I see that CCL is set to open down again this morning,  I hope that the three day "rule" comes into play later today and we see some buying come in.

[HAL4NOW]

I bought 100 shares this morning; lowest price I have seen since watching CCL. I just hope I am not catching a falling knife. There is no indication that would be the case. One analyst dropped their target price from $54 to $50 today. That would indicate CCL is near bottom and looking to edge back up.

[KirkNC]

Some  of you guys are over the top, talking about beta and 50 day moving averages and who knows what.  What are you guys, day traders?  

 

Did you hear the the story about how to make a small fortune?  Start with a large one....hahahaha.

 

99.99% of the people reading this thread own 100 shares (plus whatever dividends they may have received).  You buy it, put it on the shelf and never look at it again.  Every cruise you earn $100 or $250 or whatever and your happy.

 

If this is a major part of your portfolio (100 shares), then I suggest you might want to quit cruising.

 

[I like vacation]

6 minutes ago, KirkNC said:

 

Did you hear the the story about how to make a small fortune?  Start with a large one....hahahaha.

 

 

LOL!!!!  😄🤣😂😁😅😆

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, KirkNC said:

Some  of you guys are over the top, talking about beta and 50 day moving averages and who knows what.  What are you guys, day traders?  

 

Did you hear the the story about how to make a small fortune?  Start with a large one....hahahaha.

 

99.99% of the people reading this thread own 100 shares (plus whatever dividends they may have received).  You buy it, put it on the shelf and never look at it again.  Every cruise you earn $100 or $250 or whatever and your happy.

 

If this is a major part of your portfolio (100 shares), then I suggest you might want to quit cruising.

 

I do look at the stock price in my newspaper every day, but just out of habit. We get our quarterly dividend and OBC whenever we cruise, and that's it.

 

It seems to be in the low 50s now. It has been as high as the low 70s since we purchased it. But since it was in the low to mid 30s when it was purchased, we would still be ahead even without those benefits. The OBC has not changed since we bought it, but the dividend is now larger.

[caribill]

9 hours ago, DaveOKC said:

 Of course, many other things have to be considered when a company sets its dividend, but still this looks safe to me at this time.

 

 

I read that the company indicated the dividend would not be increased this year.

[DaveOKC]

7 minutes ago, caribill said:

 

I read that the company indicated the dividend would not be increased this year.

Thanks for the information.  Being stable is ALOT better than being cut!

 

[ontheweb]

13 hours ago, DaveOKC said:

Thanks for the information.  Being stable is ALOT better than being cut!

 

I think we can all agree with that.

[DaveOKC]

Looks like CCL will be down again this morning and it could set a new 52 week low for the stock ($45.32).  i hope I am wrong on this though!

[Sailor Taylor]

I am buying today or tomorrow.   

 

I have a HAL and a Princess cruise coming up and that along will justify the effort.  

[DaveOKC]

3 hours ago, DaveOKC said:

Looks like CCL will be down again this morning and it could set a new 52 week low for the stock ($45.32).  i hope I am wrong on this though!

Well, it set a new 52 week low this morning at $45.00.  Lets hope that this level holds!

 

[zelker]

If we purchased 100 shares today, would it apply to an upcoming cruise at the end of July that we've already paid for in full?

[DaveOKC]

4 minutes ago, zelker said:

If we purchased 100 shares today, would it apply to an upcoming cruise at the end of July that we've already paid for in full?

You are cutting it close, but if you work it, you should be able to get it done.  Here is the direction that applies to this:

 

"Please provide by fax or by mail your complete legal name, reservation/booking number, ship and sailing date, along with proof of ownership of Carnival Corporation or Carnival plc shares (for example, photocopy of shareholder proxy card, a dividend tax voucher or a current brokerage or nominee statement with your brokerage account number blacked out) no later than 3 weeks prior to your sail date to your travel agent or to the cruise line you have selected below"

[rkacruiser]

7 hours ago, DaveOKC said:

Well, it set a new 52 week low this morning at $45.00.  Lets hope that this level holds!

 

 

The yield curve is still inverted.  My financial adviser sees clouds on the horizon for the economy.  If so, there may be other new 52 week lows for other securities in the future.

[GenghisQuan]

Welp, looks like it's holding steady for the past 2 days. Just went in on 100 shares in my Roth so I can enjoy delicious tax free dividends and eventual onboard credit.

[DaveOKC]

3 minutes ago, GenghisQuan said:

Welp, looks like it's holding steady for the past 2 days. Just went in on 100 shares in my Roth so I can enjoy delicious tax free dividends and eventual onboard credit.

Since it is in the Roth, your dividends are tax free anyway!  Of course, that's where I have my 100 shares myself.

 

[richwmn]

I purchased my CCL stock in Mar 03 and have held it in my IRA since. Cost then was $47.41 plus a commission that was too high. As of my February Cruises, that amount has been covered by Dividends and OBC, and I have now received another $325 to the good. If I sold right now, I would be over $5000 ahead. Worked out pretty good I think.