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2 hours ago, neverbeenhere said:

They need to take $ 10 or $15 off the debt total before paying dividends.  So, maybe two more years at this pace.

They paid down $3B in nine months this year, leaving $20B.  Pre-covid ltd was $9B.  If business holds up wouldn't be surprised with dividend in '25. 

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44 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

The 10Q report can be found at: Inline XBRL Viewer (sec.gov)

 

Interesting to see that the occupancy over the summer quarter was at almost 110%.

 

My broker who gave me huge grief for buying RCI stock during Covid, is now enjoying that egg on his face.  😄 

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Royal Caribbean Group presented a buoyant outlook for 2024, when at least $9 EPS is forecast and Israel's industry impact is seen as 'immaterial' though it's too early gauge how demand for Europe cruises may be affected.
 

Demand for 2024 sailings has continued to accelerate, with Royal Caribbean bookings 'significantly and consistently' outpacing 2019 levels. Booked load factors and rates are higher than all prior years while the booking window has continued to extend.

Group President/CEO Jason Liberty on Thursday told analysts earnings per share are expected to be 'at least' $9 next year, which is above Wall Street's $8.41 consensus estimate and today's elevated 2023 guidance range of $6.58 to $6.63.

 

That higher 2023 guidance includes the negative impact of Israel, higher fuel costs and currency.

Israel 'pretty immaterial' to the industry

About 1.5% of Royal Caribbean's fourth quarter capacity was scheduled to visit Israel but those sailings were quickly adjusted, and Liberty thanked his teams shipboard and shoreside for enabling Rhapsody of the Seas to evacuate Americans from Israel, at no cost to the US government.

 

In 2024, Israel represents just a 1.5% sliver of the Group's capacity. Industry-wide that number is in the low single digits, according to Liberty, who said some competitors may have a little more capacity there but it is 'pretty immaterial' for the broader business.

 

Impact on demand for Europe?

It's too early to know if Israel will impact demand for travel to Europe, Liberty said, with the typical six- to eight-month booking window for European cruises just starting now.

'It's not something we're seeing today. We don't know how long this war/conflict is going to go on, which could very much inform where the consumer wants to go next year,' Liberty told analysts during the Q3 earnings call.

 

What's important, he added, is that Royal Caribbean is getting very "sticky" consumers, who want to sail with its brands no matter where they go. They're also racking up many more on-board purchases in advance of their cruise.

Typically the company's Europe business is sourced about half from North America and half from Europe.

 

Caribbean capacity spike

In any case, the bulk of Royal Caribbean's 2024 capacity is in North America, with Caribbean deployment up double digits, European capacity slightly reduced and Asia Pacific up thanks to Spectrum of the Seas' return to China.

Capacity distribution goes up to 55% Caribbean with the addition of Icon of the Seas and seven months of Utopia of the Seas with its short cruises, while Europe capacity will be at 15%, Asia Pacific 10%, Alaska 6% and the balance in South America, repositioning and expedition cruises.

 

CocoCay's Hideaway Beach sales 'going gangbusters'

Some 3m passengers are set to visit Perfect Day at CocoCay in 2024, up from 2.5m this year.

Michael Bayley, president/CEO, Royal Caribbean International, toured the private island's new Hideaway Beach last week. It's scheduled to start taking ships in January, ready in time for Icon's introduction.

Hideaway Beach sales opened three weeks ago and are going 'gangbusters,' Bayley said, with the brand already starting to push up pricing.

 

China bookings/rate ahead of 2019

Spectrum of the Seas resumes sailing from Shanghai in April and Bayley said booking volumes and rate are ahead of 2019, a record year, 'so we're feeling quite optimistic.'

In response to an analyst's question, he doesn't anticipate shifting any capacity from Northern Europe or the Eastern Mediterranean to China at this point.

 

More new to cruise and brand

Royal Caribbean Group is seeing a 'significant' increase in new to cruise and new to brand customers — in Q3, they comprised about two-thirds of its business.

 

New customers typically book short cruises and Royal Caribbean is heavily indexed on those. Liberty also said new customers are returning at double the rate than in the past.

According to him, a 1% market shift from land to cruise vacations represents the capacity of 10 or 11 Oasis-class ships.

 

'The younger generations,' Liberty said, 'are looking to us like going to Orlando or Vegas or skiing.'

 

Jason Liberty on $9-plus EPS in 2024, Israel, Europe, new-to-cruise (seatrade-cruise.com)

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On 10/26/2023 at 11:16 AM, WeMissSeaView said:

The question is, will they pay a dividend or just pay off debt?

I’m betting they will continue to pay off debt.  They have a ton of debt which could be difficult to service if, heaven forbid, there were another serious downturn in the cruise business.

Edited by Starry Eyes
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  • 2 months later...

RCCL posted this with the SEC on Friday:

 

On December 22, 2023, we entered into a credit agreement for the financing of Celebrity Xcel, the fifth Edge-class ship for Celebrity Cruises which is scheduled for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2025. The credit agreement makes available to Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., upon acceptance and delivery of the ship, an US dollar-denominated term loan guaranteed 100% by BpiFrance Assurance Export, the official export credit agency of France. The loan, once assigned to us upon delivery of the ship, will amortize semi-annually and will mature twelve years thereafter. Interest on the loan is expected to accrue at a floating rate of Term SOFR plus 1.45%. 

Inline XBRL Viewer (sec.gov)

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2 hours ago, Biker19 said:

RCCL posted this with the SEC on Friday:

 

On December 22, 2023, we entered into a credit agreement for the financing of Celebrity Xcel, the fifth Edge-class ship for Celebrity Cruises which is scheduled for delivery in the fourth quarter of 2025. The credit agreement makes available to Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd., upon acceptance and delivery of the ship, an US dollar-denominated term loan guaranteed 100% by BpiFrance Assurance Export, the official export credit agency of France. The loan, once assigned to us upon delivery of the ship, will amortize semi-annually and will mature twelve years thereafter. Interest on the loan is expected to accrue at a floating rate of Term SOFR plus 1.45%. 

Inline XBRL Viewer (sec.gov)

The current SOFR rate is approximately 5.34% which would make the loan rate of 6.8% if it happened now. God knows what it will be in 2025 though. This will be new debt added to the total balance at the time. If there ever is a dividend paid again, it will be several years down the road and it will be much less than the $3.16, per share that it paid before.

I played this game about 30+ years ago when a company stopped the dividend and restarted paying it when the got solvent again after several years. 

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IMO believe reinstating dividend at this time would be a poor use of cash.  Priority #1, #2 and #3 needs to remain improving the balance sheet.  Was very impressed with CCL's recent earnings report which showed they have reduced  LTD 10% i($4.6B) in 2023.  For RCL reducing leverage will lead to debt ratings upgrades and lower borrowing costs.

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1 hour ago, Blizzard54 said:

As I recall some of the debt they took on with the shutdown requires them to suspend dividends until it is paid off.  Taking on new long-term debt for new construction will help get them back to what was once normal.  

Please explain, I don’t understand that taking on more debt is a good thing.

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12 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Please explain, I don’t understand that taking on more debt is a good thing.

I'm not sure but the way I read it was the key word was NEW debt. Which would have different conditions. Perhaps wouldn't say cant pay dividends until paid off or whatever terms they borrowed under the older debt getting paid off. 

 

Cant believe how strong the stock has been. Since I got off harmony only one day it didnt set a new high since covid. ..today might be the 2nd time. 

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1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

I'm not sure but the way I read it was the key word was NEW debt. Which would have different conditions. Perhaps wouldn't say cant pay dividends until paid off or whatever terms they borrowed under the older debt getting paid off. 

 

Cant believe how strong the stock has been. Since I got off harmony only one day it didnt set a new high since covid. ..today might be the 2nd time. 

About can’t pay dividends until the debt is paid, doesn’t sound right, if you are making your payments on time, who are they to say what you do with the rest of your money?

Debt is debt no mater if it’s new or old. I have heard, the more debt you take on will come at a higher interest rate, if you can get it at all. I wouldn’t know for a fact, we’ve paid no interest on anything since 1984, and have a credit score of 807.

 

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The rise to almost 130 was death defying. It was back on traders radar. Low float, moves easily. Even I was wondering friday about shorting so must have been obvious.  121.46 low of the day.

 

Will this be a one day event or January a sell off month. Fascinating to watch rcl trade. 

 

 

20240102_110910931.jpeg

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1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

The rise to almost 130 was death defying. It was back on traders radar. Low float, moves easily. Even I was wondering friday about shorting so must have been obvious.  121.46 low of the day.

 

Will this be a one day event or January a sell off month. Fascinating to watch rcl trade. 

 

 

Today's drop isn't RCL specific.  Most of last year's big winners are getting hit hard.  Money managers love to have their 12/31 portfolio reports show they own all the big winners for the year.  Then the calendar turns to January and they reposition into those they believe will work best in '24

 

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3 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

 

While it might not be specific to rcl, rcl is getting hit so hard its among the top 5 being mentioned as being down. Ccl too. Yes they say rise in interest rates triggering rate sensitive stocks sell off. 

 

Those touting and wishing and hoping the fed cuts by march are quiet today and those saying no rate cuts before next june today.  The optimism of last week is reigned in. 

 

As a trader, looking for a new entry, I'm looking to see if rcl can hold 120 or goes lower. I think earnings feb 5 so it will find support, a bottom, support before next earnings. Buyers arent stepping up, just nervous sellers. Tomorrow will be important chart wise. Today it's just a falling knife. 

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1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

The rise to almost 130 was death defying. It was back on traders radar. Low float, moves easily. Even I was wondering friday about shorting so must have been obvious.  121.46 low of the day.

 

Will this be a one day event or January a sell off month. Fascinating to watch rcl trade. 

 

 

20240102_110910931.jpeg

I checked this morning before the markets opened. I had not checked in awhile and my first thought was... is this for real?

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2 hours ago, firefly333 said:

While it might not be specific to rcl, rcl is getting hit so hard its among the top 5 being mentioned as being down. Ccl too. Yes they say rise in interest rates triggering rate sensitive stocks sell off. 

 

Those touting and wishing and hoping the fed cuts by march are quiet today and those saying no rate cuts before next june today.  The optimism of last week is reigned in. 

 

As a trader, looking for a new entry, I'm looking to see if rcl can hold 120 or goes lower. I think earnings feb 5 so it will find support, a bottom, support before next earnings. Buyers arent stepping up, just nervous sellers. Tomorrow will be important chart wise. Today it's just a falling knife. 

Today’s volume is up over 50% over the daily average. If there aren’t many buyers stepping up, 

that’s shows how confident they are in the current price going up anything significant.

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9 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Today’s volume is up over 50% over the daily average. If there aren’t many buyers stepping up, 

that’s shows how confident they are in the current price going up anything significant.

Might be a dead cat bounce at open tomorrow. I'm betting lots shorted today. Might be short covering if the main downside is over. .. nothing I'd buy into. I couldn't believe how fast it could sell off today.  Agree on no news specific to rcl. Tomorrow will be extra interesting. 

Edited by firefly333
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Thursday, rcl ceo is supposed to be interviewed during "last call". I listen to last call so I'm probably going to hear him but if anyone else might want to hear what he has to say. It's on at 6 pm texas time but check your own time zone. Show is called Last Call. 

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Fed minutes from December will be read at 2 pm eastern. Could affect market. Rcl at least seems to have stopped the slide straight down like yesterday. Waiting to see if it can hold. Last time sold down below 80, found buyers and went right back up. Just shaking the loose hands. 

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5 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Fed minutes from December will be read at 2 pm eastern. Could affect market. Rcl at least seems to have stopped the slide straight down like yesterday. Waiting to see if it can hold. Last time sold down below 80, found buyers and went right back up. Just shaking the loose hands. 

 

 Currently down $2.69,  which is better than the $9 drop yesterday but so far this week has not been kind to RCL. 

 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

Earnings come out today before the market opens. Expectations for Q4 are $1.14 a share. Will PPS be better than that? I hope so! The stock has more than doubled in 2023 and just recently hit an all-time high. Watching and waiting to see if RCL makes some waves today. Stay tuned....

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The earnings call scheduled for today @10:00am will be available as a live webcast - this is an in-depth report as opposed to the earnings announcement scheduled before markets open today. 

Registration for the webcast can be found here:

 

https://www.rclinvestor.com/webcasts-presentations/#heading-2

 

Too late to edit above post but should read EPS (earnings per share) and not PPS (price per share). 

 

Let's hope it's a good report!!!

 

Edited by livingonthebeach
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