RCL Stock

[livingonthebeach]

Speaking of stock prices...RCL went up today by 6.5% - not bad for a daily increase!

[Engineroom Snipe]

7 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

Speaking of stock prices...RCL went up today by 6.5% - not bad for a daily increase!

But look at the big picture for many loyal cruisers. You get a $200 credit for each cruise plus dividends and 6.5% increases. This could appear to be quite nice. Three cruises a year and dividends on the minimum stock shares to qualify for a discount gets you about $1000.

 

Invest the same money in other stocks, like the chip and AI stocks, get more than 20% increases (100% in some cases), higher dividends and have $1000+ towards each cruise.

 

It all depends upon your goals and appetite for risk.

 

If anyone bought the stocks at their lows, bravo, you have done well. Purchasing it now is only going to give you incremental gains since the lions share of growth after the pandemic is done.

[livingonthebeach]

1 minute ago, Engineroom Snipe said:

But look at the big picture for many loyal cruisers. You get a $200 credit for each cruise plus dividends and 6.5% increases. This could appear to be quite nice. Three cruises a year and dividends on the minimum stock shares to qualify for a discount gets you about $1000.

 

Invest the same money in other stocks, like the chip and AI stocks, get more than 20% increases (100% in some cases), higher dividends and have $1000+ towards each cruise.

 

It all depends upon your goals and appetite for risk.

 

If anyone bought the stocks at their lows, bravo, you have done well. Purchasing it now is only going to give you incremental gains since the lions share of growth after the pandemic is done.

 

I did buy the shares at the lows and rode it all the way where it's trading now - so sitting pretty. No dividends yet just OBC. Wish I could buy AI direct but am content with Microsoft and NVIDIA.

[grandgeezer]

20 minutes ago, Engineroom Snipe said:

But look at the big picture for many loyal cruisers. You get a $200 credit for each cruise plus dividends and 6.5% increases. This could appear to be quite nice. Three cruises a year and dividends on the minimum stock shares to qualify for a discount gets you about $1000.

 

Invest the same money in other stocks, like the chip and AI stocks, get more than 20% increases (100% in some cases), higher dividends and have $1000+ towards each cruise.

 

It all depends upon your goals and appetite for risk.

 

If anyone bought the stocks at their lows, bravo, you have done well. Purchasing it now is only going to give you incremental gains since the lions share of growth after the pandemic is done.

Where is the dividend coming from? RCL hasn’t paid one in several years.

I’ve been in the stock market for over 35 years and reached financial gain way beyond my wildest dreams. I have a 401k, and by law, I have to take a minimal withdrawal every year, for 2024 it’s $58,000+ and that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

For those that bought the stock below $20 and held on to it, good for you. But like an economic professor said after someone brought up a similar situation many many years ago “Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in awhile”. 
Long term, cruise line stocks have not been a good investment. Five years ago, if you stuck equal amounts in RCL stock and a S&P 500 mutual fund, as of close of business today, the RCL stock would be up a total of 1.35%. The mutual fund would be up 82.16%.

Finally, to get the shareholder obc you have to book a cruise each time to get it. The mutual fund pays capital gains and dividends without another penny out your pocket.

You can take it in cash, or reinvest it.

 

[neverbeenhere]

Even a bad accountant can calculate a 401k balance from a stated RMD and age.  
 

Cherry picking a date to compare returns is a dubious exercise. My tax free game on RCL OBC credit in the last five years overwhelms the returns stated. Not withstanding my taxable gains and ROTH IRA tax free gains from trading RCI. 
Apples and Bananas are very hard to compare unless you have all the data. Play your game- win, lose or draw. 

[AlohaLivin]

11 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

How about charging luggage handling fees, like the airlines? According to Forbes magazine, they made $32,000,000,000, yes billion, last year. Only allow carryons, the same size restraints as airlines, to be brought on the ship. Start at $25 for the first bag and $30 for each additional bags, which is less than the airlines do. $$$$$.

Don’t you watch horror movies enough to know that you’re not supposed to “speak its name”??? 😂 You will bring about all kinds of nasty demons that way 👹

[AlohaLivin]

On 2/1/2024 at 11:56 AM, Engineroom Snipe said:

generational transfer of wealth which will assist future bookings.

These two “repeat cruisers” don’t intend to leave anything behind!

[diesel1973]

If I plan it right, the last check I write will be to the Undertaker, and it should BOUNCE !

[Engineroom Snipe]

2 minutes ago, diesel1973 said:

If I plan it right, the last check I write will be to the Undertaker, and it should BOUNCE !

 

Now THAT is what you call true life-time financial planning!

 

😉

[Biker19]

"

Royal Caribbean Group priced its upsized $1.25b private offering of 6.25% senior unsecured notes due 2032.

 

The offering was upsized from $1b.

The notes are expected to be issued on or around March 7.

 

Proceeds to redeem higher-cost notes

Royal Caribbean intends to use the proceeds, together with cash on hand and/or borrowings under its revolving credit facilities, to redeem all of the outstanding 11.625% senior notes due 2027."

 

Royal Caribbean prices upsized $1.2b notes offering (seatrade-cruise.com)

[Seville2Cabo]

13 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

Where is the dividend coming from? RCL hasn’t paid one in several years.

I’ve been in the stock market for over 35 years and reached financial gain way beyond my wildest dreams. I have a 401k, and by law, I have to take a minimal withdrawal every year, for 2024 it’s $58,000+ and that’s just the tip of the iceberg.

For those that bought the stock below $20 and held on to it, good for you. But like an economic professor said after someone brought up a similar situation many many years ago “Even a blind squirrel finds an acorn once in awhile”. 
Long term, cruise line stocks have not been a good investment. Five years ago, if you stuck equal amounts in RCL stock and a S&P 500 mutual fund, as of close of business today, the RCL stock would be up a total of 1.35%. The mutual fund would be up 82.16%.

Finally, to get the shareholder obc you have to book a cruise each time to get it. The mutual fund pays capital gains and dividends without another penny out your pocket.

You can take it in cash, or reinvest it.

 

I've had RC stock for about 20 years.  Average return - 15% - S&P over the same period - under 7%, and that does not include the OBC.

 

Picking the right date can make the number come out any way you want.  

[grandgeezer]

2 hours ago, Seville2Cabo said:

I've had RC stock for about 20 years.  Average return - 15% - S&P over the same period - under 7%, and that does not include the OBC.

 

Picking the right date can make the number come out any way you want.  

Here’s some new data for you. RCL stock since IPO in 1993. Up 1,235.27 %.  S&P 500 Index fund since first offered in 1984. Up 3,141.97%. These numbers are updated as the price changes. This is on msn.com. Where do your numbers come from or are they skewed in your favor?

I don’t how you can count shareholder obc as you have to pay a ton of money to get it. 

[Seville2Cabo]

3 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Here’s some new data for you. RCL stock since IPO in 1993. Up 1,235.27 %.  S&P 500 Index fund since first offered in 1984. Up 3,141.97%. These numbers are updated as the price changes. This is on msn.com. Where do your numbers come from or are they skewed in your favor?

I don’t how you can count shareholder obc as you have to pay a ton of money to get it. 

My numbers are based on when I bought the Royal stock I currently have and the difference if I would have bought a S&P fund.  

 

 

Since the IPO, Royal is up 1,395% versus the S&P at 1.061%.  

 

Not sure I understand your point about having to spend money.  I was / am going to spend it anyway, so it is just a bonus.  I never book a cruise for the OBC or points - we book what we want.  The OBC is just a bonus.

 

 

 

Royal Caribbean Cruises Return vs. S&P

	1 YEAR	5 YEAR	5 YEAR ANNUALIZED	SINCE IPO
RCL	+71.39%	+1.35%	+0.27%	+1,395%
S&P	+27.46%	+82.16%	+12.74%	+1,061%

[grandgeezer]

43 minutes ago, Seville2Cabo said:

My numbers are based on when I bought the Royal stock I currently have and the difference if I would have bought a S&P fund.  

 

 

Since the IPO, Royal is up 1,395% versus the S&P at 1.061%.  

 

Not sure I understand your point about having to spend money.  I was / am going to spend it anyway, so it is just a bonus.  I never book a cruise for the OBC or points - we book what we want.  The OBC is just a bonus.

 

 

 

Royal Caribbean Cruises Return vs. S&P

	1 YEAR	5 YEAR	5 YEAR ANNUALIZED	SINCE IPO
RCL	+71.39%	+1.35%	+0.27%	+1,395%
S&P	+27.46%	+82.16%	+12.74%	+1,061%

This is not comparing apples with apples. You are comparing it to the S&P 500. I’m comparing it to my S&P 500 Index Fund. There is a huge difference, the S&P 500 is based the cost of one share of each. The S&P 500 Index Fund has to own at least one share of each stock but they can load up on the ones they think will make them money. some of their biggest holdings are well into 

[MichaelCMTX]

18 hours ago, Engineroom Snipe said:

But look at the big picture for many loyal cruisers. You get a $200 credit for each cruise plus dividends and 6.5% increases. This could appear to be quite nice. Three cruises a year and dividends on the minimum stock shares to qualify for a discount gets you about $1000.

 

 

Haven't seen a dividend since 2020, my RC win isn't OBC but rather all the shares I sold just before things took a dive in early 2022 - in conjunction with buying most of them back when the price was in the $40s and $50s.  

[Baron Barracuda]

On 2/23/2024 at 9:33 AM, Biker19 said:

"

Royal Caribbean Group priced its upsized $1.25b private offering of 6.25% senior unsecured notes due 2032.

 

The offering was upsized from $1b.

The notes are expected to be issued on or around March 7.

 

Proceeds to redeem higher-cost notes

Royal Caribbean intends to use the proceeds, together with cash on hand and/or borrowings under its revolving credit facilities, to redeem all of the outstanding 11.625% senior notes due 2027."

 

Royal Caribbean prices upsized $1.2b notes offering (seatrade-cruise.com)

So refinancing only 5% of  LTD reduces interest expense $60 million thereby increasing EPS $.20 annually.  Lots of further upside ahead as they work to de-leverage the balance sheet.

[firefly333]

Right now they said year over year earnings up 40% which of course cant continue once the current prices are the base. For right now for me it's a buy, but long term I expect growth to slow a lot. I was talking  to my broker yesterday. I'm not sure I want to put lots of shares in a long term account at these prices. 

 

I'd put them in my trading account where it costs me nothing to trade in and out. We had some treasuries come due yesterday and moved some $$$ into stocks. Bad timing the day after rcl ran up. Couldnt in that account until yesterday. Day before it was more like $114 where I would have bought, not at 122 near top of the current range. Cruise prices cant grow at 40% a year forever, not a bean stalk or nvidia. Yea I know growing earnings 40% isnt exactly the same as prices growing at 40% but certainly related. 

 

Even coke is saying they are getting some pushback now on price increases. Expedia thinks travel is leveling out and bad forecast. It's just rcl who says higher higher. (Not counting tech AI). People watching earnings are worried the consumer is pulling back. Buying the store brand instead. Buying a msc cruise instead of rcl. 

[nelblu]

The bigger problem to the economy is the level of debt especially in credit cards.  

[firefly333]

3 minutes ago, nelblu said:

The bigger problem to the economy is the level of debt especially in credit cards.  

Idk the national debt is also seen as a problem by economists. Watching credit card debt and with things costing more, it's not surprising people borrow more. The level of non repayment on credit cards isnt seen as worrying or visa wouldnt be hitting all time highs. I dont own visa but my cousin does and always saying how well the stock is doing ... 6 month chart V. Visa. Apparently not many worried about credit card debt right  now.

 

I'm a chart person. 

 

[Baron Barracuda]

19 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Idk the national debt is also seen as a problem by economists. Watching credit card debt and with things costing more, it's not surprising people borrow more. The level of non repayment on credit cards isnt seen as worrying or visa wouldnt be hitting all time highs. I dont own visa but my cousin does and always saying how well the stock is doing ... 6 month chart V. Visa. Apparently not many worried about credit card debt right  now.

 

I'm a chart person. 

 

Visa and Mastercard have no credit risk.  Balances are carried on books of issuing banks.  Visa collects interchange fee from payment processing.    Their earnings are driven by $ volume charged,

[livingonthebeach]

Stock price closed at 135.53 yesterday. It's all time historical high. Wish I would have bought some at the all time low of $19 during the pandemic. I missed the boat (pun intended). I did buy some more at 2023 lows back in April so I'm doing OK. 

[island lady]

I bought during the Covid shutdown.  Bought exactly 100 shares to simply get our OBC for each cruise.   This was not what my broker wanted me to do, and kept trying to get me to sell it (thinking it was junk).  I refused.  

 

Since then I think I have received half as much in OBC credits as I paid for the stock.  Just last week applied to another 9 booked cruises, including Celebrity.  

 

And...of course the stock has doubled since I bought it.   My broker is in awe and I love telling him...."nah..nah..na..nah nah".  😄

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 21 by island lady

[firefly333]

36 minutes ago, island lady said:

I bought during the Covid shutdown.  Bought exactly 100 shares to simply get our OBC for each cruise.   This was not what my broker wanted me to do, and kept trying to get me to sell it (thinking it was junk).  I refused.  

 

Since then I think I have received half as much in OBC credits as I paid for the stock.  Just last week applied to another 9 booked cruises, including Celebrity.  

 

And...of course the stock has doubled since I bought it.   My broker is in awe and I love telling him...."nah..nah..na..nah nah".  😄

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Almost every stock jumped yesterday but last week a analyst gave it a one year target of 160. 

[Engineroom Snipe]

I think demand is still high because people are willing to do discretionary spending even with a higher debt load.

 

As long as people feel secure in their employment, they feel they can manage payments. Many will say this is not the best financial method of paying for a vacation but it is human nature.

 

If I somewhat felt my job is not secure, most if not all of my discretionary spending stops to build my war chest against a lay-off.

 

I do not think Royal stock is going to crash again like it did due to the shut-down. I also do not think Royal stock is going to have the same explosive gains it had during its recovery from its lows.

 

 

[Tlbecker1]

7 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Almost every stock jumped yesterday but last week an analyst gave it a one year target of 160. 

We sold some yesterday, but will always have at least 100 shares.