Carnival Stock

[Mackenzie1]

The question is, are these new bookings being made with full deposits, or FCCs?  I could book book a 2021 cruise tomorrow with a FCC. Maybe that’s being too skeptical, though. 

[2 cruises a year]

35 minutes ago, Mackenzie1 said:

The question is, are these new bookings being made with full deposits, or FCCs?  I could book book a 2021 cruise tomorrow with a FCC. Maybe that’s being too skeptical, though. 

I was told by the Future Cruise person on my last cruise that you can not use FCC's as a deposit. So I bought some FCD's to use for deposits.

I guess that if the FCC covers the cost of the cruise, you could use the FCC to pay the total up front. 

Edited April 13, 2020 by 2 cruises a year

[Eaglecw]

This is a kind of an interesting video

 

[travelhound]

7 hours ago, dockman said:

it's not all doom and gloom

 

https://thehill.com/policy/transportation/492047-more-people-are-booking-cruises-for-2021-compared-to-2019-despite

Yup, I hope to be one of those people soon.

[Mackenzie1]

2 hours ago, 2 cruises a year said:

I was told by the Future Cruise person on my last cruise that you can not use FCC's as a deposit. So I bought some FCD's to use for deposits.

I guess that if the FCC covers the cost of the cruise, you could use the FCC to pay the total up front. 

I meant FCDs. Thanks for pointing out the difference. 

[Roberto256]

Another gent looking for the shareholder onboard credit...

 

"Director Randall Weisenburger purchased 1.25 million shares in the cruise ship company, bringing his total ownership to approximately 1.38 million shares."

 

However, I'm not sure we should look to him for investment advice:

" His last insider purchase was on July 3, 2019, when he bought 20,000 shares for $46.50 apiece, spending $930,000."

 

Entire article:

 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/04/13/carnival-director-boosts-his-stake-by-997.aspx

[npcl]

Carnival CEO on CNBC in the next few minutes   12:28 PST

[npcl]

22 minutes ago, npcl said:

Carnival CEO on CNBC in the next few minutes   12:28 PST

Still not on yet at 12:51 PST.  Probably will be after market close.

[oskidunker]

Typical hype to keep you watching. Could be an hour instead of minutes. As the Borg said, “ You will comply and stop sailing”

 

[npcl]

35 minutes ago, oskidunker said:

Typical hype to keep you watching. Could be an hour instead of minutes. As the Borg said, “ You will comply and stop sailing”

 

Now saying he is up next.   I am watching CNBC or Bloomberg channels while the market is open anyway.

 

Edited April 14, 2020 by npcl

[oskidunker]

Not going to cancel cruises for 100 days. Thats it. They are still booking. Unbelievable. 

[npcl]

Stated when social gathering is allowed again will be the time to look at cruising again.

 

Emphasizing how the lines voluntary stopped.

 

Stated by nature cruising is a social event.

 

Now talking about health and cleaning guidelines

 

Cruising depends upon how the world moves on this.  Will be in total compliance with whatever is required by countries around the world.

 

The difference with this compared to previous heath problems (ebola, Zika, SERS, etc.) is that community spread is global.

 

He is saying that they will wait until the experts say it is safe to cruise again.

 

They are now grilling him about the CDC comments.  He is saying that if people are not comfortable with social gathering, they will not be cruising.  Cruising will wait until social distancing is not the norm. 

 

Actually he seems to be saying right thing " when society is ready, we will be ready"

 

Asked if they regret letting Ruby Princess go to sea.  Answer - based our decisions about what we knew at the time, if we knew then what we know now.  We would all have been sheltering in place.

 

`When asked if they need to be including in future bail outs, he is now going through the CLIA line about all of jobs impacted by the cruise lines.  Most important to help those impacted.  That CCL has gotten their financing to withstand a long pause.

Can get through the end of the year with no revenues.  Working to seeking additional liquidity trying other places Italy, Germany, etc.

 

A better interview than I expected.

[bluesea321]

3 minutes ago, npcl said:

They are now grilling him about the CDC comments.

 

According to the CDC Order of April 9 they need to have a comprehensive plan in place in 7 days, April 16.  That is two days away.  Did he address that?  And if not will they be moving all their ships away from US territorial waters?

[npcl]

27 minutes ago, bluesea321 said:

 

According to the CDC Order of April 9 they need to have a comprehensive plan in place in 7 days, April 16.  That is two days away.  Did he address that?  And if not will they be moving all their ships away from US territorial waters?

He stated is that they will be in full compliance with every countries requirements, including CDC.

 

 

[oskidunker]

The stock has gone up 10% in after hours trading.  

Edited April 16, 2020 by oskidunker

[bluesea321]

1 hour ago, oskidunker said:

The stock has gone up 10% in after hours trading.  

 

Stock futures are substantially up, 700 points.  Two bits of news, a potential drug and the new guidelines for opening the country.  Your crystal ball is as good as mine but the dead cat bounce may not last.  I don't see this virus going away anytime soon, unfortunately.

[travelhound]

On 4/13/2020 at 4:25 PM, 2 cruises a year said:

I was told by the Future Cruise person on my last cruise that you can not use FCC's as a deposit. So I bought some FCD's to use for deposits.

I guess that if the FCC covers the cost of the cruise, you could use the FCC to pay the total up front. 

That's why I chose option 2, so that I could use the refund and FCC to book a cruise for next year.

 

[travelhound]

1 hour ago, oskidunker said:

The stock has gone up 10% in after hours trading.  

Yup, it looks like the entire market is going to be up tomorrow, due to some new guidelines on reopening the economy.

[c-boy]

5 hours ago, oskidunker said:

The stock has gone up 10% in after hours trading.  

Hmmmm whatdoyanow.com 

[Esprit]

If I had paid my August cruise in full and princess cancelled it then I would take the refund and put it all in Carnival Corporation & PLC shares. I reckon you will be better off than accepting the 125% FCC when the time comes to cruise again. You haven't got the commitment either to book a cruise due to the time constraints on FCC's 

[Roberto256]

I don't know if there is much new in this artical, but I found the discussion about whether passengers will return interesting.

 

Cruise industry has enough cash for 10 cruise-less months. But will passengers come back?

 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article242033816.html

 

 

[npcl]

14 hours ago, bluesea321 said:

 

Stock futures are substantially up, 700 points.  Two bits of news, a potential drug and the new guidelines for opening the country.  Your crystal ball is as good as mine but the dead cat bounce may not last.  I don't see this virus going away anytime soon, unfortunately.

Even with the bounce and the news about Remdesivir the stock has still not broken through the 50% retracement level. Pattern still points down.

[JT1962]

I don't know if there is much new in this artical, but I found the discussion about whether passengers will return interesting.

 

Cruise industry has enough cash for 10 cruise-less months. But will passengers come back?

 

https://www.miamiherald.com/news/business/tourism-cruises/article242033816.html

 

 

 

I think the key section of the article is this:

 

“Analysts at Deutsche Bank see a “U” shaped recovery for the industry, with normal business not returning until as late as 2023. The trough will depend on how cruisers respond to the threat from coronavirus.

 

“Whether things ultimately pan out this way depends in large part on consumers’ willingness (and financial ability) to return to the seas,” Deutsche Bank said in a note to clients. “We believe there is a sizeable contingent of cruise enthusiasts/loyalists who will board as soon as they are able to do so again, but we also believe there will be many (particularly first time would-be cruisers) who may hesitate to get on a ship for a certain period.”

 

The cruise lines have enough cash to get through 2020, if needed. The real issue as I see it is 2021 going forward. Many of those booking cruises for next year are, or will be, using future cruise credits, so those will not generate much cash for the cruise lines other than onboard spending. If new cruisers drop substantially, and / or previous cruisers are hurt financially and are unable to book again soon after using their future cruise credit, the cruise lines will struggle for the next several years. The true cost of Covid-19 on the cruise industry may not be known for 3-4 years.

 

[travelhound]

14 minutes ago, npcl said:

Even with the bounce and the news about Remdesivir the stock has still not broken through the 50% retracement level. Pattern still points down.

I don't think we will see significant upward movement in the stock until they resume operating.  The real question is where do think the stock will be in 2-3 years.  If Carnival survives, which looks likely, probably $30-55 range, which is a 300-500% return from the current price.

[npcl]

2 minutes ago, travelhound said:

I don't think we will see significant upward movement in the stock until they resume operating.  The real question is where do think the stock will be in 2-3 years.  If Carnival survives, which looks likely, probably $30-55 range, which is a 300-500% return from the current price.

The big question is IF, without a restructuring that wipes out shareholders.

 

I have been running a number of models based upon various assumptions on debt load, booking numbers, number of FCCs redeemed, etc. 

 

Unfortunately as far as I can see CCL will not only need to start cruising again by January 2020, but will need good, non-FCC bookings, and even then will need some very cooperative treatment from their debt holders, the countries where their new builds are occurring (they provide substantial funding vehicles for the new builds) and ability to delay or cancel contracts.

 

The most likely outcome I see is that they use their existing funds to get them through until they can start up again, and at that time restructure via BK, to right size the company and get debt to a manageable level, including using that to cancel new builds if the ship yards try to hold them to their contracts for new ships.  If they declare BK before they can start up again, without a path forward, it is unlikely for them to get support to successfully restructure.  If on the other hand they can see the ability to restart and do it at that time, they will most likely get support from the debt holders for an conversion of their debt to equity.