When will HAL cruises REALLY restart?

[iancal]

No doubt HAL is not cancelling April cruises in an effort to conserve cash AND they are probably hoping that booked customers will cancel and take credits. I suspect that HAL will cancel at the last minute.  For the life of me I cannot understand why they are still selling these.

 

The thought of HAL doing, or people cruising, on an April cruise is absurd.

 

I suspect that greensprout is correct....perhaps as late as 2021.  Far too early to think about that.

 

There will be two issues.  When the cruises actually commence and when people feel comfortable booking and cruising.    

 

We are thinking about  a number of travel options.  All land based.  We are not even going to consider booking a cruise at this point.  There is no valid data  and I suspect that unfortunately  there will not be for some time to come.  On the off chance that we do a land trip in the fall we will not even be looking to pick up a complementary cruise.

Edited March 24, 2020 by iancal

[npcl]

10 minutes ago, iancal said:

No doubt HAL is not cancelling April cruises in an effort to conserve cash AND they are probably hoping that booked customers will cancel and take credits. I suspect that HAL will cancel at the last minute.  For the life of me I cannot understand why they are still selling these.

 

The thought of HAL doing, or people cruising, on an April cruise is absurd.

 

I suspect that greensprout is correct....perhaps as late as 2021.  Far too early to think about that.

 

There will be two issues.  When the cruises actually commence and when people feel comfortable booking and cruising.    

 

We are thinking about  a number of travel options.  All land based.  We are not even going to consider booking a cruise at this point.  There is no valid data at this point and I suspect that unfortunately  there will not be for some time to come.  On the off chance that we do a land trip in the fall we will not even be looking to pick up a complementary cruise.

I would put the sequence of key events to be:

 

1. When will the major embarkation ports open?

2. When will destination ports open and start allowing cruise ships?

3. When will The cruise lines decide to start cruising.  Starting too soon and having problems arise might make long term damage, even worse?

4. How fast will the public decide to cruise again?

 

I expect that you will see social distancing restrictions dropped and most land based businesses, including sport leagues up an running before the embarkation ports are reopened.

[Crazy For Cats]

Just read an article that Royal Caribbean is extending their voluntary shutdown for another 30 days.  

https://presscenter.rclcorporate.com/press-release/89/royal-caribbean-extends-global-suspension-of-cruisingrnnbsp/

Edited March 24, 2020 by Crazy For Cats
new link

[greensprout]

2 hours ago, npcl said:

I would put the sequence of key events to be:

 

1. When will the major embarkation ports open?

2. When will destination ports open and start allowing cruise ships?

3. When will The cruise lines decide to start cruising.  Starting too soon and having problems arise might make long term damage, even worse?

4. How fast will the public decide to cruise again?

 

I expect that you will see social distancing restrictions dropped and most land based businesses, including sport leagues up an running before the embarkation ports are reopened.

Completely agree.  Although business and the bottom line is what no doubt corporate HAL (and other cruise lines) are thinking, they would be extremely foolish to resume actual departures for quite some time.  

[sail7seas]

On 3/23/2020 at 9:42 AM, NukeTim said:

Just wondering what others are thinkings.  Looking at the HAL site I see that the April 15, 2020 sailing of the

Maasdam to Mexico can be booked (we were scheduled for the April 1 sailing).  Is it realistic to think that

cruising will restart the second half of April?  I'm thinking of booking a cruise in May but will it really 'go'?

I know there is a 'cruise guarantee' but I'm still waiting for my FCC from the canceled cruise.

 

 

I am unsu re how anyone here would reliably know  the  answer to your question

[Happygirl55]

My cruise is still set to leave April 15 from Seattle to Hawaii!  Why has HAL not cancelled this?  Hawaii is basically closed to tourists until at least April 30. All attractions are closed. Tourists arriving by plane are quarantined for 14 days. The Lieutenant governor wants to close port to cruise ships. And the Maasdam was only allowed to let off 7 Hawaiian residents and 1 injured passenger

Edited March 25, 2020 by Happygirl55
More information

[HappyInVan]

Here's a study from BC...

 

"Physical distancing has halved rate of spread of COVID-19 in B.C., official modelling suggests"

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-bc-modelling-numbers-dr-bonnie-henry-1.5512269

 

Social distancing works and will slow the spread of the disease. Unfortunately, that merely defers the end of the epidemic. In view of the severity of the epidemic in Europe and the States, cannot see cruising till late summer. Of course, it isn't possible to do social distancing on a cruise ship. 

 

The Ruby Princess is the example of what happens when the CD allows cruising as normal.

[TAD2005]

Social distancing does stop the spread.  If fewer people have the virus, then fewer new people will be infected.  This is the absolute best way to shorten the life of this pandemic.   New York refused to pay attention and their head of the department of health advised people in early February to go to work, ride the subways, go to bars and restaurants and attend the Lunar New Year celebrations.   New Orleans did the same for Mardi Gras.   People listened to these public officials and look what happened.   That faulty advice was given strictly on economic concerns and not public health.  Keep your distance, sanitize, and this will be beaten.   

[USN59-79]

On 3/25/2020 at 4:23 PM, Happygirl55 said:

My cruise is still set to leave April 15 from Seattle to Hawaii!  Why has HAL not cancelled this?  Hawaii is basically closed to tourists until at least April 30. All attractions are closed. Tourists arriving by plane are quarantined for 14 days. The Lieutenant governor wants to close port to cruise ships. And the Maasdam was only allowed to let off 7 Hawaiian residents and 1 injured passenger

Happygirl:  First, welcome to Cruise Critic.  No one knows the answer to your question.  The HAL lovers will say that HAL is just overwhelmed at this time.  The haters will say that it is corporate greed and that they would rather give you a future cruise credit than refund your money.  Bottom line:  Your cruise will not sail on April 15th from Seattle.

[blue whale]

Thank you one and all.

 

It is interesting to get the opinions of others.

 

I am booked for October Africa Grand, 2020. My agent says that I enter the penalty period early June, so I am just waiting to see what to do. I get all my money back if I cancel by early June, and I can bank my insurance . My insurance is not with HAL.

 

I do not want a cruise to nowhere, or to be put off the ship on the other side of Africa as happened to passengers on world 2020.

[az_tchr]

6 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

Here's a study from BC...

 

"Physical distancing has halved rate of spread of COVID-19 in B.C., official modelling suggests"

 

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/covid-19-bc-modelling-numbers-dr-bonnie-henry-1.5512269

 

Social distancing works and will slow the spread of the disease. Unfortunately, that merely defers the end of the epidemic. In view of the severity of the epidemic in Europe and the States, cannot see cruising till late summer. Of course, it isn't possible to do social distancing on a cruise ship. 

 

The Ruby Princess is the example of what happens when the CD allows cruising as normal.

HAL will resume cruising when there have been NO NEW Covid19 cases anyplace in the WORLD for at least 2 weeks.

They also need all ports to reopen, airlines to resume flights and borders to open.

Really simple. No cruiseline can risk another fiasco like that that continues today.

No estimate from me except physically impossible before June or July.

My TA suggested lines are waiting to cancel as they cannot handle the current volume of calls.  Extending cancellations will bury them.

Thus if you think the cruiseline will not go BK and you want to cruise in 2021 take the credit.  Otherwise a refund.

[JeffElizabeth]

July? If they are not back in business by then, they might never come back. Unless the Netherlands bails them out? 

[HappyInVan]

3 hours ago, az_tchr said:

Thus if you think the cruiseline will not go BK and you want to cruise in 2021 take the credit.  Otherwise a refund.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with you. However, I am taking a cautious approach.

 

In February, I was thinking that June would be possible. After the big surge in cases this month, I am slightly optimistic that cruising (and tourism) could begin in late summer in Asia by Asian cruise companies.

 

At this time, there seems to be no end to the epidemic in Europe or USA. So, the big cruise companies won't restart operations till year end at the earliest.

 

Here's the problem. COVID19 could take a vacation during the summer, and return in winter. IMO, it's quite likely since ...

 

“Covid-19 far more likely than Sars to bond to human cells due to HIV-like mutation”

 

https://www.todayonline.com/world/covid-19-far-more-likely-sars-bond-human-cells-due-hiv-mutation-scientists-say

 

SARS died out after 6 months because it was a evolutionary dead end. COVID19 is a successful mutation.

 

The big cruise companies will fail if COVID19 returns as a virulent disease. Only a workable vaccine can change the outcome.

 

 

 

[dutchie50]

10 hours ago, JeffElizabeth said:

July? If they are not back in business by then, they might never come back. Unless the Netherlands bails them out? 

 

Don't think that The Netherlands will bail them out since they have been an American company under the Carnival corp flag since 1989.

[cruisemom42]

2 hours ago, dutchie50 said:

 

Don't think that The Netherlands will bail them out since they have been an American company under the Carnival corp flag since 1989.

 

This keeps being posted erroneously. Carnival Corporation is not an American company. It is incorporated in Panama, with its "global operational" headquarters in the US. The picture is muddied by the fact that there is both Carnival Corporation and Carnival plc, which is incorporated in England and Wales. In a statement quoted directly from the 2019 Annual Report: "The two companies operate as a single economic enterprise with a single senior executive management team and identical Boards of Directors, but each has retained its separate legal identity. Each company’s shares are publicly traded; on the New York Stock Exchange (“NYSE”) for Carnival Corporation and the London Stock Exchange (“LSE”) for Carnival plc."

 

See page 12:  https://www.carnivalcorp.com/static-files/9ba84dfd-b96a-486f-8617-34e49820077a. 

 

So while Carnival Corp may have its headquarters in the US and be traded on the NYSE, they are not incorporated in the US and thus are not an American company.  

 

Clear as mud, right???

 

 

Edited March 29, 2020 by cruisemom42

[HappyInVan]

16 hours ago, HappyInVan said:

 

The big cruise companies will fail if COVID19 returns as a virulent disease. Only a workable vaccine can change the outcome.

 

 

 

 

Correction:

 

I should have said, ”only a workable vaccine would change the game”. Of course, the decisions made by everyone (from federal government to personal) can change the outcome for ourselves and our neighbours.

 

[gwenmarie]

It appears that social distancing is to be in effect until at least April 30. This was just announced by the federal government task force for the virus . I would bet HAL Will announce a date to this same date or later due to Canada and Alaska port closing 

[kitty9]

Dr. Fauchi just said on ABC World News Now that he expects more than 200,000 deaths and millions of cases from COVID-19,  in the US alone.  If those numbers from the CDC doesn’t put things into perspective, nothing will.  I don’t see any cruising for at least a year, and I see some lines going bankrupt or at the very least, cutting the number of ships in their fleets.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see HAL and Princess cutting their fleets, and the smaller cruise lines like Crystal, Azamara and Oceania going away completely.  Like I said, this is just my opinion based on the idea that we won’t see cruising until over a year from now. 

[bouhunter]

5 minutes ago, kitty9 said:

Dr. Fauchi just said on ABC World News Now that he expects more than 200,000 deaths and millions of cases from COVID-19,  in the US alone.  

No, he said that is POSSIBLE.   He DID NOT say he EXPECTS 200,000 dead.

[TAD2005]

7 minutes ago, bouhunter said:

No, he said that is POSSIBLE.   He DID NOT say he EXPECTS 200,000 dead.

You are correct.  The accuracy of the news you get depends, in a large part, on the news outlet you are listening to.   In today's politically charged news environment,  it is very tempting for the writer to slant a headline in one direction or the other, because we still have an election coming up in 7 months, and if a headline can sway a few voters, then the writer has done a good thing, in their mind.  It is impossible to get straight, unbiased, accurate news these days, especially about the coronavirus because people still have their own agendas.   

[HappyInVan]

This is what Trump said...

 

"Trump said his administration was extending the guidelines in order to avoid a major death toll. The president pointed to modeling that forecast 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. if drastic measures weren’t taken to mitigate the outbreak. Trump said the administration is working to keep the projected death toll below 100,000.   

“So if we can hold that down, as we’re saying, to 100,000, it’s a horrible number, maybe even less, but to 100,000, so we have between 100 and 200,000, we all together have done a very good job,” Trump said."

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/president-trump-extends-national-social-distancing-guidelines-through-april-30.html

 

 

[AncientWanderer]

1 hour ago, HappyInVan said:

This is what Trump said...

 

"Trump said his administration was extending the guidelines in order to avoid a major death toll. The president pointed to modeling that forecast 2.2 million deaths in the U.S. if drastic measures weren’t taken to mitigate the outbreak. Trump said the administration is working to keep the projected death toll below 100,000.   

“So if we can hold that down, as we’re saying, to 100,000, it’s a horrible number, maybe even less, but to 100,000, so we have between 100 and 200,000, we all together have done a very good job,” Trump said."

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/president-trump-extends-national-social-distancing-guidelines-through-april-30.html

 

 

 

I'm just glad we're clamped down for another 30 days...whatever stream of consciousness talk brought us to it.  

My guess is everybody -- and I mean everybody -- is doing the best they can right now.

[HappyInVan]

At the beginning, the projections may seem unbelievable. For example, on February 29, Germany had only 60 known cases. Who would believe that by March 30, they would have 60k confirmed cases!

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Germany#Statistics

 

Today, the USA has only 140k confirmed cases. At a 20% growth rate, there would be one million known cases in 10 days. Science fiction?

 

What about the number of deaths?

 

When do you think the disease will peak?

Edited March 31, 2020 by HappyInVan

[Fartlek]

The cruise lines were one of the first to be impacted and will be the VERY last to get going again.  If a vaccine is 18-24 months away I would guess the cruises will start at least 6 months later.  My guess mid 2022

[cscurlock]

2 hours ago, Fartlek said:

The cruise lines were one of the first to be impacted and will be the VERY last to get going again.  If a vaccine is 18-24 months away I would guess the cruises will start at least 6 months later.  My guess mid 2022

That's a decent guess.  The only thing that might lower that is that there are a lot more companies working on a vaccine than say H1N1 since its a pandemic now.  So its possible it could be sooner.  Maybe March next year.