Wall Street Journal Article

[Pushka]

4 hours ago, NMTraveller said:

 

Yet NYC which is the epicenter of the USA had very few cruise ships if any coming over from Europe during the time.  Yet they had a bunch of airplanes.  I guess it all boils down to 5th grade history.  Diseases are spread by travel.

The chances of catching the virus from another passenger as a direct consequence of being on the same plane are extremely low. And limited to two rows adjacent to the passenger. 

In the case of the US, the virus was in circulation weeks before it was officially recognised. And yes, a plane brought the virus to the US just as it did to Australia, interestingly the major source of our infections were from Europe and North America. Not China. However it was on land that the virus spread in the US. 

 

 

[Pavovsky]

1 hour ago, Pushka said:

The chances of catching the virus from another passenger as a direct consequence of being on the same plane are extremely low. And limited to two rows adjacent to the passenger. 

In the case of the US, the virus was in circulation weeks before it was officially recognised. And yes, a plane brought the virus to the US just as it did to Australia, interestingly the major source of our infections were from Europe and North America. Not China. However it was on land that the virus spread in the US. 

 

 

I think this is a relevant point. People who were on planes brought the virus from Europe to the US. International travel linked to the globalised economy helped spread the virus. However, most infections have been community based. Cruise ships had (and indeed are having) community based transmissions.
 

One aspect in all this is the density of crew accommodation - no possibility for isolating until it is too late. I wonder will this aspect be considered when cruising returns. 

[yorky]

4 hours ago, Pushka said:

The chances of catching the virus from another passenger as a direct consequence of being on the same plane are extremely low. And limited to two rows adjacent to the passenger. 

In the case of the US, the virus was in circulation weeks before it was officially recognised. And yes, a plane brought the virus to the US just as it did to Australia, interestingly the major source of our infections were from Europe and North America. Not China. However it was on land that the virus spread in the US. 

 

 

As you know I feel the bigger risk when travelling by air was the airport. Think about the whole process from first arriving. You are in a queue to check in your luggage, you them go for something to eat and drink, you then go through security to have you bags checked, you then hit the shops and duty free, then maybe another bar, then you move down to the gate where you sit with hundreds of other people. Thousands of people with no isolation or social distancing. 

[livingonthebeach]

7 hours ago, DaveSJ711 said:

 

Florida's population is almost three times greater than Washington's population.  Measured in fatalities, then, and on a per-capita basis, the outbreak has been far more severe in Washington compared to Florida.

 

Regarding the two Bakersfield, CA doctors, the American College of Emergency Physicians and the American Academy of Emergency Medicine declared that they "emphatically condemn the recent opinions released by Dr. Daniel Erickson and Dr. Artin Messihi.  These reckless and untested musings do not speak for medical societies and are inconsistent with current science and epidemiology regarding COVID-19."  https://calmatters.org/health/2020/04/debunking-bakersfield-doctors-covid-spread-conclusions/

 

I did mention that Florida's population was greater than the population of Washington.  If you take the death toll per 100,000, Washington is in 15th place nationwide.  The Northeast States were hit the hardest.  With New York, New Jersey and Connecticut in the top three.  Florida is around 27th but there is much controversy now in the reporting of cases and deaths.

 

More than the two CA doctors reported different strains.  If you google strains of Covid-19 there are numerous articles from various sources. (some very reliable). Here is one that mentions three strains:

"Three distinct strains of Covid-19 have been identified by Dr. Peter Forster, a geneticist at the University of Cambridge, and his team after they traced the origins of the pandemic by analysing 160 genomes from human patients and finding that the strain in Wuhan, the hardest-hit city in China, mutated from an earlier version."

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200409085644.htm

 

 

 

[Ride-The-Waves]

Florida is mostly rural.  Concentrations of COVID-19 is high in urban countries like Miami-Dade.  In the panhandle northwest Dixie has 7 cases and not deaths.  Epidemiologists do indicate that the virus is progressing towards rural regions across America and other countries.  Additionally, the GOP "leadership" in Florida has been purposely undercounting COVID-19 cases for the past at least two weeks.  Comparing Florida and New York is a non-starter.

[livingonthebeach]

26 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Florida is mostly rural.  Concentrations of COVID-19 is high in urban countries like Miami-Dade.  In the panhandle northwest Dixie has 7 cases and not deaths.  Epidemiologists do indicate that the virus is progressing towards rural regions across America and other countries.  Additionally, the GOP "leadership" in Florida has been purposely undercounting COVID-19 cases for the past at least two weeks.  Comparing Florida and New York is a non-starter.

 

Florida is the third most populous State in the US after California (which has rural portions as well) and Texas.  We have a population of 21,477,737. The panhandle does have less cases and deaths and is less populated than the Southern part of the State but we are not a rural State by any means.  Every County in Florida is different and we are undergoing a phase 1 opening on Monday with Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties (the hotspot area) excluded from the plan. 

Edited May 3, 2020 by livingonthebeach

[d9704011]

6 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Florida is the third most populous State in the US after New York (which has rural portions as well) and Texas.  We have a population of 21,477,737. The panhandle does have less cases and deaths and is less populated than the Southern part of the State but we are not a rural State by any means.  Every County in Florida is different and we are undergoing a phase 1 opening on Monday with Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties (the hotspot area) excluded from the plan. 

Huh.... I’m not an expert on the US but I think maybe California figures in the ‘most populous state’ category.

[livingonthebeach]

11 minutes ago, d9704011 said:

Huh.... I’m not an expert on the US but I think maybe California figures in the ‘most populous state’ category.

 

Yes I stand corrected.  It is California, Texas, Florida then New York.  Thanks -- I edited the post.  The population of Florida, as of the 2019 census, is correct though.  Florida ranks #3 in the US population-wise.

Edited May 3, 2020 by livingonthebeach

[hcat]

33 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Florida is mostly rural.  Concentrations of COVID-19 is high in urban countries like Miami-Dade.  In the panhandle northwest Dixie has 7 cases and not deaths.  Epidemiologists do indicate that the virus is progressing towards rural regions across America and other countries.  Additionally, the GOP "leadership" in Florida has been purposely undercounting COVID-19 cases for the past at least two weeks.  Comparing Florida and New York is a non-starter.

Fla not necessarily "mostly" rural but have not checked how it is "officially" characterized by census tracts,  There are many rural and agricultural  areas but they are  quickly being developed.

 

Case counting in many places is not as accurate as it might be. It is a challenging task esp without universal testing, 

 

Btw...  political commentary  not  within CC guidelines

[TeeRick]

19 hours ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Which begs the question...did these ships have Covid-19 test kits onboard?   The cruise industry has historically been accused of covering things up and in some cases this reputation is justified.  However, when dealing with a novelty virus with no existing protocols and lacking the methods for testing, there is part of me that wants to give some ships (not all), the benefit of the doubt.  I agree that it was probably more prudent to stop operations in February instead of March but given all the unknown circumstances, I think criminal charges (if this is the intent of the Congressional Investigation) are not in order, IMHO.

Congressional Investigations in the US prove nothing and mostly do nothing.  It is almost always political grandstanding for re-election purposes or for smearing the other political party or vice versa.  So I don't take the fact that a Congressional investigation has been started as proof of anything or support of any theory.  

 

As for test kits- we cannot even get enough now in the US in early May.  They were relatively rare back in early March.  Why would cruise lines have them back then?  How could they get them when out at sea?  And from what government would they come from?  Why didn't the port of San Diego authorities hold Eclipse for another day in March and test everybody before agreeing to their release?  Regardless of what Celebrity reported?  They knew Celebrity Eclipse could not test passengers on board.

 

There is so much armchair quarterback talk on these boards way after the fact.  Go back to the context at that time.  It changed daily and weekly.  

[TeeRick]

21 hours ago, PROCRUISE said:

For what its worth, I'll be flying domestically on 5/27. Just received notice from American Airlines that starting 5/11, masks will be required for all passengers as provided by the airline along with hand sanitizer.

Starting May 11 ??  We have all been wearing masks for weeks.

[TeeRick]

Ok airports and airplanes vs cruise ships.  What does it really matter?  The virus is (was) spread from unsuspecting passengers from all of the above.  But in fact on a daily basis the number of airline/airport passengers far, far exceeds cruise passengers.  And mostly not traceable.  COVID-19 positive passengers from certain cruise ships -at the time- were indeed traceable.  So shine a spotlight and you will find it where you look.  Same with testing.  Not enough tests for whole populations.  So the non-random testing spotlight (of symptomatic people) finds a higher percentage of positive results.  But in a general test of 12% of the entire population in Iceland - where the virus definitely arrived by airlines- showed a positive test rate of 0.8% and 50% of those were asymptomatic carriers.  There were no commercial passenger cruises to Iceland to my knowledge in Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar- Apr time period. 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/iceland-is-the-perfect-country-for-studying-covid-19

[Georgia_Peaches]

1 hour ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Additionally, the GOP "leadership" in Florida has been purposely undercounting COVID-19 cases for the past at least two weeks.

Source please.

[TeeRick]

Back to airlines vs cruise ships for those that want to focus there.

 

The airline hub for flights from Europe in the US is in the Northeast and more specifically the NYC/NJ airports.  The SARS-CoV-2 strain in that part of the US came from Europe (probably Italy) by genome analysis.  It is the absolute epicenter of the US pandemic.  Most cases.  Most hospitalizations and deaths.

 

The airline hub for eastern Asia in the US is West Coast cities (LA, SF, SEA) and also Vancouver Canada.  The SARS-CoV-2 strain in those cities predominantly came from Wuhan early on, again by genome analysis.  

 

As far as I am aware very few cruise ships were docking in NY/NJ or LA/SF/VAN in Dec-Mar time frame.  A better cruise ship hub for transmission in the US would have been FLL/MIA.  Yes some cases there but nothing like the airline hub of NY/NJ.  And by genome analysis many of the FL cases came from NY - not from cruise ships.

Edited May 3, 2020 by TeeRick

[d9704011]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

As far as I am aware very few cruise ships were docking in NY/NJ or LA/SF/VAN in Dec-Mar time frame.

Further to your proposition; the hottest cities in Canada are Montreal and Toronto.  I can unequivocally tell you that zero cruise ships docked in those cities over the winter but they both have large international airports (read Italy and Iran), including lots of traffic from the United States.  Of course, we’re well into community transmission now.

Edited May 3, 2020 by d9704011

[yorky]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

Ok airports and airplanes vs cruise ships.  What does it really matter?  The virus is (was) spread from unsuspecting passengers from all of the above.  But in fact on a daily basis the number of airline/airport passengers far, far exceeds cruise passengers.  And mostly not traceable.  COVID-19 positive passengers from certain cruise ships -at the time- were indeed traceable.  So shine a spotlight and you will find it where you look.  Same with testing.  Not enough tests for whole populations.  So the non-random testing spotlight (of symptomatic people) finds a higher percentage of positive results.  But in a general test of 12% of the entire population in Iceland - where the virus definitely arrived by airlines- showed a positive test rate of 0.8% and 50% of those were asymptomatic carriers.  There were no commercial passenger cruises to Iceland to my knowledge in Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar- Apr time period. 

 

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-22/iceland-is-the-perfect-country-for-studying-covid-19

Every major incident In the world needs a bad guy, at the moments it’s the cruising industry, even on here. They made mistakes and it’s easy click bait, so everyone is a winner. Lots of people made lots of mistakes from government’s down and no doubt it will all come out in the wash in the end. I just can’t wait for something like an end and my wife and I sitting in the martini bar with a “ Pornstar Martini”.

[Babr]

1 hour ago, Georgia_Peaches said:

Source please.

Tampa Bay Times reported that the Medical Examiners were reporting death numbers, but the state made them stop because their numbers did not match the numbers of the state health department. No information forthcoming for several days. Maybe that is what poster was referring to.

Edited May 3, 2020 by Babr

[Sticks5315]

My wife and I were on a Celebrity cruise from Auckland to Sydney March 10 thru 20. We were getting lots of texts and emails from family at home about the panic pandemic. We really felt much safer on our ship. The staff was wiping down something every minute of the day or is it seemed. They had staff all over the ship with hand sanitizer. We did not eat in the buffets but really felt like Celebrity was doing everything conceivable to maximize hygiene levels on board.  

[Pushka]

4 hours ago, Sticks5315 said:

My wife and I were on a Celebrity cruise from Auckland to Sydney March 10 thru 20. We were getting lots of texts and emails from family at home about the panic pandemic. We really felt much safer on our ship. The staff was wiping down something every minute of the day or is it seemed. They had staff all over the ship with hand sanitizer. We did not eat in the buffets but really felt like Celebrity was doing everything conceivable to maximize hygiene levels on board.  

Was that Solstice? A fit healthy 70 year old Australian died from Covid on 26 March after being on that cruise. 

[Oville]

14 hours ago, hcat said:

Fla not necessarily "mostly" rural but have not checked how it is "officially" characterized by census tracts,  There are many rural and agricultural  areas but they are  quickly being developed.

 

Case counting in many places is not as accurate as it might be. It is a challenging task esp without universal testing, 

 

Btw...  political commentary  not  within CC guidelines

Without a political bias, as someone who lives in FL I’m truly questioning the numbers.  Weeks ago it was reported that the outstanding tests numbers were State based testing and not private clinics like Quest, Lab Corp and hundreds of others, the numbers NOT  reporting were staggering.

 

Hope all is well on LI.  K

[TeeRick]

22 hours ago, d9704011 said:

Further to your proposition; the hottest cities in Canada are Montreal and Toronto.  I can unequivocally tell you that zero cruise ships docked in those cities over the winter but they both have large international airports (read Italy and Iran), including lots of traffic from the United States.  Of course, we’re well into community transmission now.

Yes great addition.  Thanks!

[livingonthebeach]

8 hours ago, Oville said:

Without a political bias, as someone who lives in FL I’m truly questioning the numbers.  Weeks ago it was reported that the outstanding tests numbers were State based testing and not private clinics like Quest, Lab Corp and hundreds of others, the numbers NOT  reporting were staggering.

 

Hope all is well on LI.  K

The discrepancy between the private lab testing numbers and the FDOH (Florida Department of Health) was reported in the news around mid-April.  Since then the State has partnered with private labs around Florida to increase testing capabilities with the added goal of reporting accurate numbers. While testing and reporting times vary among commercial testing and State labs, these numbers are supposedly merged and updated in as much "real time" as possible on the FDOH site.  

 

Another discrepancy reported in the Tampa Bay Times last month was the death count tally.   TBT reported a difference in State and Medical Examiner's numbers.  It turned out that the FDOH was not including non-residents "snowbirds" in its count in order for them not to be listed twice in multiple states.  Now on the FDOH website they post resident and non-resident deaths separately. 

https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429

As far as I know, there hasn't been any additional news on this subject.

[Sticks5315]

16 hours ago, Pushka said:

Was that Solstice? A fit healthy 70 year old Australian died from Covid on 26 March after being on that cruise. 

That is too sad! I do feel bad for his family. We received an email from Celebrity, after we disembarked, that a passenger who disembarked in Dunedin, NZ had tested positive. But there was never any communication regarding the gentleman from AU. We were told by a "reliable" source that they were testing for Covid 19 on the ship and there were no positive results from those tests. With a 2-14 day incubation period it is hard to guess where the transmission occurred.

Nonetheless, it did appear the staff was working very hard to keep sanitation levels to the highest standard.  

[hcat]

11 hours ago, Oville said:

Without a political bias, as someone who lives in FL I’m truly questioning the numbers.  Weeks ago it was reported that the outstanding tests numbers were State based testing and not private clinics like Quest, Lab Corp and hundreds of others, the numbers NOT  reporting were staggering.

 

Hope all is well on LI.  K

Hi K

After reading and hearing more, the # reporting does seem off down there! Maybe worse or better than other places. .  I am not a big believer in statistics, esp in times of crisis...but we have to  attempt to count anyhow, for what it's worth! The Census will likely be a shambles!

 

We  have been  in NY since Feb 6th.  2 days after our flights from RSW  ( we left healthy) thru Baltimore we were  both terribly ill...for quite awhile. Had annual  upgraded flu shots and tested neg so who knows? We now think it might have been Corona.  New grandson  arrived just after we  felt better.    Our June flights to Fla were cancelled yesterday which is fine b/c it save us the trouble of moving them.

 

 Some of our  FT Myers friends are heading back  out of Orlando..could only get direct flights from there.. Seems it might be easier getting out of Fla then it is  going down.

 

We  hope to be back to Fla next Nov. Be well and stay safe!

Edited May 4, 2020 by hcat

[rmalbers]

Back to the WSJ article: what it sort of confirmed, and I did some more looking, is that there was covid on the Eclipse that finally ended in San Diego after a trip around South America.  What I haven't seen anywere is: Did X send out letters to people on that trip about the covid cases?  Does anyone know?

Edited May 4, 2020 by rmalbers