Place an imaginary bet here , When will Celebrity start up?

[TeeRick]

7 minutes ago, sanger727 said:

 

If you think the vaccine is worth getting if it gets pushed out in Sept then of course you’ll get it. We all have individual situations and risk tolerances. Based on everything I’ve heard and seen to date I am very concerned that a rushed and insuffiently tested vaccine is a larger risk for me than this virus. Clearly you disagree which is fine. This vaccine will get large scale safety and efficacy testing one way or another once it gets pushed to market. 6 months later I’ll be willing to reconsider.

I do not disagree with you reasons for getting vaccinated or not.  Up to you.  None of my business. Everybody has their own situation.  I was disagreeing with your statement that vaccines are being rushed to just recoup development costs.  

[Mercruiser]

A lot of discussion here has veered into the relevant topic of "Place an imaginary bet here , When will vaccines be available to ordinary people?"

 

I am very skeptical that I will have access to a vaccine before 2022. I'm not that certain that one will be developed at all. There are lots of viruses that have no vaccine despite decades of trying.

 

Here is a related news article from AP

https://apnews.com/c62c6376cc0a7c1801dcec5bd42c4995

"Vaccine experts say it’s time to set public expectations. Many scientists don’t expect a coronavirus vaccine to be nearly as protective as the measles shot.

If the best COVID-19 vaccine is only 50% effective, “that’s still to me a great vaccine,” said Dr. Drew Weissman of the University of Pennsylvania.

“We need to start having this conversation now,” so people won’t be surprised, he added.

And for all the government promises of stockpiling doses in hopes of starting vaccinations by year’s end, here’s the catch: Even if a shot pans out -- and it’s one that your country stockpied -- only some high-risk people, such as essential workers, go to the front of a very long line.

“Will you and I get vaccinated this year? No way,” said Duke University health economist David Ridley."

[sanger727]

1 hour ago, TeeRick said:

I do not disagree with you reasons for getting vaccinated or not.  Up to you.  None of my business. Everybody has their own situation.  I was disagreeing with your statement that vaccines are being rushed to just recoup development costs.  

ok. I’ll simplify my answer then just to money. 
 

the same reason that had caused many companies to make terrible decisions in the past - rushing to make a deadline because of continued cost of development, pushing an flawed product out to help the stock price and bottom line... 

Edited June 28, 2020 by sanger727

[TeeRick]

2 minutes ago, Mercruiser said:

A lot of discussion here has veered into the relevant topic of "Place an imaginary bet here , When will vaccines be available to ordinary people?"

 

I am very skeptical that I will have access to a vaccine before 2022. I'm not that certain that one will be developed at all. There are lots of viruses that have no vaccine despite decades of trying.

 

Here is a related news article from AP

https://apnews.com/c62c6376cc0a7c1801dcec5bd42c4995

"Vaccine experts say it’s time to set public expectations. Many scientists don’t expect a coronavirus vaccine to be nearly as protective as the measles shot.

If the best COVID-19 vaccine is only 50% effective, “that’s still to me a great vaccine,” said Dr. Drew Weissman of the University of Pennsylvania.

“We need to start having this conversation now,” so people won’t be surprised, he added.

And for all the government promises of stockpiling doses in hopes of starting vaccinations by year’s end, here’s the catch: Even if a shot pans out -- and it’s one that your country stockpied -- only some high-risk people, such as essential workers, go to the front of a very long line.

“Will you and I get vaccinated this year? No way,” said Duke University health economist David Ridley."

What/Who are Ordinary People?  First off- a lot of the doses of the vaccine being developed (AZ/Oxford vaccine as a lead example) are being funded at risk by the US and UK governments.  In exchange for 100's of millions of doses (presumably free or very low cost) for their populations.  This is no secret.  Even so, I would imagine that the initial doses are reserved for population at risk (elderly, immune-comp, etc) and health care workers and first responders.  If the rest of us are ordinary people then yes we might not be first in line because we want to cruise.  

[TeeRick]

4 minutes ago, sanger727 said:

ok. I’ll simplify my answer then just to money. 
 

the same reason that had caused many companies to make terrible decisions in the past - rushing to make a deadline because of continued cost of development, pushing an flawed product out to help the stock price and bottom line... 

Honestly you cannot push out a flawed drug or ineffective or unsafe vaccine as easily as you might think just to make many or recover costs.  It is not like launching the next iPhone.  There is a huge amount of Regulatory Review and Approvals needed in the US from the FDA and in the EU from the EMEA.  Similar regulatory authorities in all countries world wide.  This will happen even with an accelerated review expected for a COVID Vaccine.  I am not at all worried about it. 

[C-Dragons]

5 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

This will happen even with an accelerated review expected for a COVID Vaccine.  I am not at all worried about it. 

No worries here, either.

[TeeRick]

1 minute ago, C-Dragons said:

No worries here, either.

Well I guess at least the two of us will sign up for the vaccine.  And I will try to convince my spouse too.!

[C-Dragons]

Just now, TeeRick said:

Well I guess at least the two of us will sign up for the vaccine.  And I will try to convince my spouse too.!

Yes, I have some convincing to do also. 😁

[sanger727]

25 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Honestly you cannot push out a flawed drug or ineffective or unsafe vaccine as easily as you might think just to make many or recover costs.  It is not like launching the next iPhone.  There is a huge amount of Regulatory Review and Approvals needed in the US from the FDA and in the EU from the EMEA.  Similar regulatory authorities in all countries world wide.  This will happen even with an accelerated review expected for a COVID Vaccine.  I am not at all worried about it. 

k
 

https://247wallst.com/investing/2010/12/10/the-ten-worst-drug-recalls-in-the-history-of-the-fda/
 

Doesn’t even touch the epidemic created by over prescription of opioids, and newer concerns like Zantac

[PROCRUISE]

Not a betting man but, returning to the originally posted question: hope for start up by January 2021 because I'm booked. Or, by February 2021 because I'm booked. Or, at least by March 2021, because I'm booked!

[gone2c]

Just saw this thread and decided to put in my two cents.  I have a cruise on the Edge scheduled for 11/13 to the ABC islands.  The Edge was scheduled to leave Rome on a 14 day transatlantic to Ft Lauderdale on 10/30.  My cruise is scheduled to be the first one for the fall/winter Caribbean itinerary.  It is as of today sailing from the Bahamas (I'm not sure where it was up to this point) on its way to Coco Cay.  I'm also not sure what is in store for the Edge the next four months but I am thinking that my cruise may have a chance of going.  With all the cancellations I have had, it would be nice if it does. 

[C-Dragons]

3 hours ago, gone2c said:

Just saw this thread and decided to put in my two cents.  I have a cruise on the Edge scheduled for 11/13 to the ABC islands.  The Edge was scheduled to leave Rome on a 14 day transatlantic to Ft Lauderdale on 10/30.  My cruise is scheduled to be the first one for the fall/winter Caribbean itinerary.  It is as of today sailing from the Bahamas (I'm not sure where it was up to this point) on its way to Coco Cay.  I'm also not sure what is in store for the Edge the next four months but I am thinking that my cruise may have a chance of going.  With all the cancellations I have had, it would be nice if it does. 

I think your cruise has a very good chance of sailing. 

[pumpkin 11]

On 6/27/2020 at 12:04 PM, Prost Seattle said:

In the opinion section.  This is an important distinction. 

So the CEO's are lying? They can put it under whatever section they want

[Arizona Wildcat]

On 6/27/2020 at 7:04 AM, TeeRick said:

It has to be developed at high risk.  The world has no other choice.  It is really quite amazing that these vaccine efforts have been accelerated so much for our collective benefit.  Governments such as the UK and the US are funding these programs in exchange for 100's of millions of initial doses for their populations.  But a vaccine will still need to work in clinical trials and have a high safety profile to be approved.  No need to worry about that.  Why would something unsafe or not effective be pushed to market?  For what nefarious reason?  Just to say people are vaccinated?  And if it doesn't work won't that be known very soon?

The Sanofi JV has unlimited government funding and a current group of about 10000.  Any adverse reactions should be clear.  Effective? I have no idea.  Without a vaccine cruising in my opinion is not likely to resume. Nor is travel to other countries or even regions within a country.

For example I have authorization to go to Canada in August.  However I am still required to quarantine for 14 days.  Am not going.

[Arizona Wildcat]

On 6/27/2020 at 7:43 AM, pumpkin 11 said:

40% DECLINE in new cancer diagnosis...COVID didn’t cure cancer.

Yes people are avoiding hospitals and doctors.  What is your point?  People make choices and not arranging to see doctors is often a bad one.  Would suggest not seeing a doctor because of a fear of COVID when one has a tumor is certainly likely to have a negative outcome.

[pumpkin 11]

3 minutes ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Yes people are avoiding hospitals and doctors.  What is your point?  People make choices and not arranging to see doctors is often a bad one.  Would suggest not seeing a doctor because of a fear of COVID when one has a tumor is certainly likely to have a negative outcome.

How do you know that? 

[Arizona Wildcat]

Just now, pumpkin 11 said:

How do you know that? 

It is Exactly What you posted!  People are not going to hospitals and doctors out of fear of catching COVID.  Do you think the cancer rate is suddenly down 40%?  Sure seems not seeing a doc when you need to go puts off treatment and the condition is then likely to get worse.

[pumpkin 11]

1 minute ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

It is Exactly What you posted!  People are not going to hospitals and doctors out of fear of catching COVID.  Do you think the cancer rate is suddenly down 40%?  Sure seems not seeing a doc when you need to go puts off treatment and the condition is then likely to get worse.

How do you know it will be a negative outcome? Isn't it worth it to catch even one cancer diagnosis?

[Arizona Wildcat]

1 minute ago, pumpkin 11 said:

How do you know it will be a negative outcome? Isn't it worth it to catch even one cancer diagnosis?

Absolutely.  Delaying a diagnosis and treatment of cancer is not good.  You seem to continue saying the opposite.

[pumpkin 11]

1 minute ago, Arizona Wildcat said:

Absolutely.  Delaying a diagnosis and treatment of cancer is not good.  You seem to continue saying the opposite.

Alright, keep putting words in my mouth don't ya. That is not what I am saying.

 

CEO's of the Cleveland Clinic and Mayo Clinic estimate that deaths as a result of the lockdown will exceed deaths from the virus itself. That's consistent with what many physicians are reporting. Delayed care, missed screenings, massive stress.

[zitsky]

17 minutes ago, pumpkin 11 said:

Alright, keep putting words in my mouth don't ya. That is not what I am saying.

 

CEO's of the Cleveland Clinic and Mayo Clinic estimate that deaths as a result of the lockdown will exceed deaths from the virus itself. That's consistent with what many physicians are reporting. Delayed care, missed screenings, massive stress.

 

1. Do you have a source for these claims?

2. Why is your profile pic not a pumpkin?

[pumpkin 11]

10 minutes ago, zitsky said:

 

1. Do you have a source for these claims?

2. Why is your profile pic not a pumpkin?

https://newsroom.clevelandclinic.org/2020/06/09/how-many-more-will-die-from-fear-of-the-coronavirus/

 

I posted this than everyone got mad they couldn't read it. That's what is says. 

 

That's a great question! And a fantastic idea maybe I should make the shift to a pumpkin.

[Arizona Wildcat]

34 minutes ago, pumpkin 11 said:

Alright, keep putting words in my mouth don't ya. That is not what I am saying.

 

CEO's of the Cleveland Clinic and Mayo Clinic estimate that deaths as a result of the lockdown will exceed deaths from the virus itself. That's consistent with what many physicians are reporting. Delayed care, missed screenings, massive stress.

Delayed care, missed delayed screenings etc will cause deaths accounting to the article YOU quoted and quoted again.

[bEwAbG]

The purpose of the opinion piece by the managers of two hospital chains was to convince people that it was safe to go to the hospital despite the epidemic.  It is essentially a sales pitch.  If you actually read the op-ed, their point is quite different than how it is being spun in this talking point spewed by people who get their information via internet memes and rabble-rousing blogs.

[pumpkin 11]

15 hours ago, bEwAbG said:

The purpose of the opinion piece by the managers of two hospital chains was to convince people that it was safe to go to the hospital despite the epidemic.  It is essentially a sales pitch.  If you actually read the op-ed, their point is quite different than how it is being spun in this talking point spewed by people who get their information via internet memes and rabble-rousing blogs.

That’s not what I read