Are cruise ship companies making a mistake getting ride of small ships?

[cruizergal70]

2 minutes ago, evandbob said:

 

Isn't it amazing, how in a free market, pricing changes in one company bring about similar price changes for other companies working in the same industry?  Cruise fares, airline fares, gasoline prices, extra charges like baggage , dining or late fees all seem to rise and fall together.

 

Competition or conspiracy? 

Since the entire cruise industry is being hit with unprecedented circumstances, the market influences go beyond competition or conspiracy. 

 

All I'm saying is that those who cruise the mainstream lines can absorb some price increases. Perceptions of value remain to be seen. Sure, some may decide to move from one line to another but that doesn't mean they will abandon every single mainstream line. To paraphrase Mark Twain, "tales of their death (mainstream lines) are being greatly exaggerated."

 

Funny how I suspect part of this conversation is being motivated by "premium" line passengers wanting to feel somehow superior. Cruising on Oceania, Viking, Cunard, Azamara, Seabourn, etc doesn't make anyone special.

[iancal]

If a cruise line has been unable to make a profit, or an unacceptable profit on a smaller ship then in my mind they are doing the right thing in selling or scrapping small ships.

 

Seems to me that smaller ships are a niche market.  The management team has to be tuned into that market IMHO vs just being part of a mass market cruise line such as a Princess or HAL.

[SmoothFlying]

1 hour ago, cruizergal70 said:

Funny how I suspect part of this conversation is being motivated by "premium" line passengers wanting to feel somehow superior. Cruising on Oceania, Viking, Cunard, Azamara, Seabourn, etc doesn't make anyone special.

 You're so right chief, with the last sentence. But 'they' (the premium passenger, you're referring too) do book these lux lines too feel 'superior' if only in their own egos. And while it's some but not all of them who do it for that reason it's still the same reasoning why this type of mentality buys a Caddy for a twenty mile drive to work when a Ford or Chevy would accomplish the same trip.

 

Mac

[ontheweb]

3 hours ago, wowzz said:

Which is impossible if you cruise from the UK, especially in the winter months.

Our one cruise from the UK left from Dover. There were remnants of a hurricane, and we were on a small ship, the former Ocean Princess. Yet, I do not remember any especially rough seas. I do remember that on the day before that we spent in London the weather was miserable. 

[wowzz]

6 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Our one cruise from the UK left from Dover. There were remnants of a hurricane, and we were on a small ship, the former Ocean Princess. Yet, I do not remember any especially rough seas. I do remember that on the day before that we spent in London the weather was miserable. 

I probably worded my reply incorrectly. I should have said that cruising from the UK in the winter, you can't be sure of getting calm weather.

[ontheweb]

1 minute ago, wowzz said:

I probably worded my reply incorrectly. I should have said that cruising from the UK in the winter, you can't be sure of getting calm weather.

OK, the cruise I mentioned was in August, which definitely does not qualify as winter.

[wowzz]

1 minute ago, ontheweb said:

OK, the cruise I mentioned was in August, which definitely does not qualify as winter.

Given the weather we had in the UK this August, I'm not so sure!

[ldubs]

12 hours ago, ilikeanswers said:

 

My thinking is that if the price for something that is generally regarded as a bargain starts to go up then it would lose its bargain image so people might think well now that it costs this much it is not as much difference in price to whatever is next on the price rung. If that gap closes more than the value will not be perceived to be as good and some might think better to pay a little bit more and get more rather than pay the now higher price for the same thing they bought previously at a lower price. 

 

I sure agree, if the gap were ever to close enough.  Though there may be a segment who would not find the luxury product vibrant enough for their tastes, I expect that wouldn't be a significant driver.   And, those "wealthy demographics" who pay luxury prices still expect the product to meet their expectations.   Just like everyone I guess.   

 

Anyway,  my prediction is prices may go up and ships will still sail at capacity (however that is defined these days).     

 

 

Edited September 6, 2020 by ldubs
Evolution of thought! Lol

[Flatbush Flyer]

2 hours ago, cruizergal70 said:

.....Funny how I suspect part of this conversation is being motivated by "premium" line passengers wanting to feel somehow superior. Cruising on Oceania, Viking, Cunard, Azamara, Seabourn, etc doesn't make anyone special.

 

21 minutes ago, SmoothFlying said:

.....But 'they' (the premium passenger, you're referring too) do book these lux lines too feel 'superior' if only in their own egos. And while it's some but not all of them who do it for that reason it's still the same reasoning why this type of mentality buys a Caddy for a twenty mile drive to work when a Ford or Chevy would accomplish the same trip.

Oh -oh! 👀

 

It looks like a by-produce of "sheltering in place" for some folks posting on this thread is an increase in introspection (I.e., as defined in psychiatry). 

 

In any case, let's look at reality:

 

I and many others here on CC had a significant "aha" experience years ago when, instead of merely comparing cabin prices for similar itineraries in our first pass at possible ship choices, we started doing an exercise I call determining the "net daily rate." 

 

Fairly quickly, these exercises demonstrated that the math involved in NDR was very surprising for certain itineraries - so much so that I and numerous others have, at times, posted NDR pricing comparison here on CC that show the real value of some "premium" lines for specific segments of the cruising population. My favorite was one guy who posted the figures showing a fly-to one week cruise, with every required/desired NDR cost figured in, that was $100s cheaper on a premium line than on RCC (his formerly preferred line).

 

And, in examining the history of at least one of those premium lines (including interviews with one of its founders), what became clear was that the premium lines' have relied successfully on that specific "segment demographic" to fill their ships week after week with a high percentage of repeat cruisers mostly gleaned from the "upper end" of the mass market cruise lines (i.e., Celebrity, Viking, HAL, Cunard, Princess....).

 

If some folks on CC really wanted to "impress"(?) cruising strangers, wouldn't they then boast about their history of luxury (not premium) cruises? And why would they want "common folk"(?) dining alongside them.

 

Most confusing: why would the NDR converts want others to examine their cruising expectations/preferences/means and "DO THE MATH" of considering ALL required (e.g., cabin, airfare, gratuities etc.) and optionally chosen (e.g., internet, beverages, booze, tours, etc.) experiences divided by itinerary days. Could it be that they want others who have worked hard for their financial well-being to also experience cruising efficacy?

 

Though certainly not for everyone (particularly very young kids), those folks in the "premium" line demographic that do NDR comparisons have come to realize that:

 

If you are traveling intercontinentally to do a cruise, enjoy cocktails and specialty restaurants,  need or desire internet, prefer a primarily adult and decorous passenger base and want, at least, some of your land experiences included (without you needing to do the planning or incur extra cost) while eschewing floating amusement parks, unfavorable crew and space ratios, mediocre food, thousands of fellow passengers, liberal smoking policies, arts shows/pesky photogs and "nickel-diming," you may want to do some NDR comparisons between the mass-market and premium segments. And, while you're at it, throw a luxury line in the mix. In fact, do the NDR comparison within the same cruiseline family (e.g., NCLH's NCL, Oceania and Regent). The bottom line of an "apples to apples" (all required/desired costs) door-to-door comparison for many popular "introduction-to-cruising" itineraries (e.g., 7-10 day Caribbean and Med) will surprise you in terms of true value for your hard earned $$$. 

 

In any case, folks can introspect their own misbeliefs or just follow the crowd OR they can realize that some of us here who have had the "aha!" would like them to have it too!

 

And now, let the introspected rambling commence!

 

But, first, help me out. Do they still make Cadillacs? I don't know since I drive a 20 year old car. And, if they do, are they still more expensive than a BMW/Lexus/et al., "door knob" price negotiated by Brooklyn kids whose first uttered words as a toddler were "never pay retail"?

 

 

 

 

[ldubs]

1 hour ago, SmoothFlying said:

 You're so right chief, with the last sentence. But 'they' (the premium passenger, you're referring too) do book these lux lines too feel 'superior' if only in their own egos. And while it's some but not all of them who do it for that reason it's still the same reasoning why this type of mentality buys a Caddy for a twenty mile drive to work when a Ford or Chevy would accomplish the same trip.

 

Mac

 

Luxury branding is sure a motivator for a lot of folks, but still I think there are (were?) some real differences between a caddy and a chevy.  I think there is a difference between cruise lines too.   There are certainly some of that "demographic" who use brand to promote their self importance but I think most others  clearly like the brand for the added features or atmosphere.  Anyway,  whether it is enough to justify the $$ difference is personal and a matter of budget.   I do think there are things that are pure status symbols that people willingly pay for (the good ol "logo tax"). 

[Cruzaholic41]

43 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

 

And now, let the introspected rambling commence!

 

Wow!  Just when I thought the ego couldn’t get any worse. 🙄

Edited September 6, 2020 by Cruzaholic41

[ldubs]

38 minutes ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

 

If some folks on CC really wanted to "impress"(?) cruising strangers, wouldn't they then boast about their history of luxury (not premium) cruises? And why would they want "common folk"(?) dining alongside them.

 

 

 

Aw, you mean like someone who frequently refers to being among the more sophisticated, cosmopolitan, better educated, and let's not forget, well-heeled travelers.    Truth is most "common folk" would dread having to endure a dinner with that type.

[Flatbush Flyer]

2 hours ago, ldubs said:

 

Aw, you mean like someone who frequently refers to being among the more sophisticated, cosmopolitan, better educated, and let's not forget, well-heeled travelers.    Truth is most "common folk" would dread having to endure a dinner with that type.

Today's heat getting to you? 

[SteveH2508]

Flatbush Flyer has absolutely nailed the mass-market v premium v luxury debate re cost. 

 

It all comes down to the individual's preferences. We like good itineraries; run up a significant bar bill; do not like amusement parks; like good food and good service. When we checked out our cruise spreadsheets for NCL, Princess, P&O against Azamara, Regent and Silversea etc. we are on pretty much the same cost per day, but with a better experience (for our wants). It has nothing to do with the name or status of the line - one of our most memorable and talked about cruises was on CMV to the Amazon (3 star and cheap but great nevertheless).

[cruizergal70]

11 minutes ago, SteveH2508 said:

Flatbush Flyer has absolutely nailed the mass-market v premium v luxury debate re cost. 

 

 

 The argument was that mainstream passengers could not absorb potential price increases and that alleged premium passengers could. 

 

Bottom line is that there isn't enough data to make that assertion. 

[Flatbush Flyer]

17 minutes ago, SteveH2508 said:

Flatbush Flyer has absolutely nailed the mass-market v premium v luxury debate re cost. 

 

It all comes down to the individual's preferences. We like good itineraries; run up a significant bar bill; do not like amusement parks; like good food and good service. When we checked out our cruise spreadsheets for NCL, Princess, P&O against Azamara, Regent and Silversea etc. we are on pretty much the same cost per day, but with a better experience (for our wants). It has nothing to do with the name or status of the line - one of our most memorable and talked about cruises was on CMV to the Amazon (3 star and cheap but great nevertheless).

Amen.

[ldubs]

6 hours ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

Today's heat getting to you? 

 

We are staying inside, with A/C thankfully.  Not just the heat, but the AQI is pretty bad now too.  Thx.  

[getting older slowly]

10 hours ago, Flatbush Flyer said:

, we started doing an exercise I call determining the "net daily rate." 

 

Most confusing: why would the NDR converts want others to examine their cruising expectations/preferences/means and "DO THE MATH" of considering ALL required (e.g., cabin, airfare, gratuities etc.) and optionally chosen (e.g., internet, beverages, booze, tours, etc.) experiences divided by itinerary days. Could it be that they want others who have worked hard for their financial well-being to also experience cruising efficacy?

 

 

Interesting.... for us whom only cruise locally (Round trips from Australia )

I do a costing   which includes everything ( I mean everything )... divide by days and halve

Bingo cost per person per day......   Having done the MATH...

 

I am still way better off enjoying a suite with perks on a main stream line...

that the cheapest cabin on a more up- market line   which costs a lot more...

 

I am happy with the main stream offering... like a lot of people.... but i can not see the worth in going up market

   

eg a 13-14 night trip Australia to New Zealand

Princess in a suite $500 per day per person

Oceania in a base cabin  $750 per day per person and you have a fly home///

 

I have done the MATH not going to do it

[ldubs]

20 minutes ago, getting older slowly said:

 

Interesting.... for us whom only cruise locally (Round trips from Australia )

I do a costing   which includes everything ( I mean everything )... divide by days and halve

Bingo cost per person per day......   Having done the MATH...

 

I am still way better off enjoying a suite with perks on a main stream line...

that the cheapest cabin on a more up- market line   which costs a lot more...

 

I am happy with the main stream offering... like a lot of people.... but i can not see the worth in going up market

   

eg a 13-14 night trip Australia to New Zealand

Princess in a suite $500 per day per person

Oceania in a base cabin  $750 per day per person and you have a fly home///

 

I have done the MATH not going to do it

 

It really does come down to preferences/utility and perhaps some other intangibles that are seemingly important to some.    It makes sense to compare apples-to-apples when looking at mostly inclusive vs mostly a la carte pricing.  I understand that.  I think we all understand that.  As you say, it is not always going to work out in favor of the mostly inclusive fare of the luxury line.  

 

 

 

[getting older slowly]

5 minutes ago, ldubs said:

 

It really does come down to preferences/utility and perhaps some other intangibles that are seemingly important to some.    It makes sense to compare apples-to-apples when looking at mostly inclusive vs mostly a la carte pricing.  I understand that.  I think we all understand that.  As you say, it is not always going to work out in favor of the mostly inclusive fare of the luxury line.  

 

 

 

Thanks...

I understand some people what a ner BMW others are happy in a 10 year old Chevy...

 

the point.. I was wanted to make....... is a lot of people on CC  like pointing out the upmarket line are as cheap as main stream line if you include the cost of everything......

Well I am yet to find the proof.......  in my looking 50-100% more

 

Everybody is different... which is just as well...

and you should go which ever cruise line make you happy. ( or floats your boat....lol )

 

So whenever you next cruise enjoy it...... Don

 

[ldubs]

2 minutes ago, getting older slowly said:

Thanks...

I understand some people what a ner BMW others are happy in a 10 year old Chevy...

 

the point.. I was wanted to make....... is a lot of people on CC  like pointing out the upmarket line are as cheap as main stream line if you include the cost of everything......

Well I am yet to find the proof.......  in my looking 50-100% more

 

Everybody is different... which is just as well...

and you should go which ever cruise line make you happy. ( or floats your boat....lol )

 

So whenever you next cruise enjoy it...... Don

 

 

I couldn't agree more. I have yet to find luxury line inclusive pricing that is better.  For me a primary factor is I would not use everything I'm paying for in the luxury fare.  

 

And, to be sure, these days we will worry about the "what" after we know the "when" of our next cruise.  haha.     

 

 

[Flatbush Flyer]

44 minutes ago, ldubs said:

 

...... I have yet to find luxury line inclusive pricing that is better.  For me a primary factor is I would not use everything I'm paying for in the luxury fare...... 

 

 

You and "getting older slowly" may want to reread my post #84 where I was fairly specific about the profile of cruisers who might find PREMIUM (not "luxury") pricing on CERTAIN Itineraries close to the NDR of better mass market lines for a similar cabin class and itinerary.

 

FWIW, Though I'm talking about "premium" cruise lines, you are citing "luxury" pricing for your comparison, which is often more expensively out out-of-whack with premium pricing that includes all optional purchases necessary to make an apples to apples comparison. It's one of the reasons I choose Oceania over Regent for similar itineraries. 

 

As for "getting older slowly," his basis for comparison appears to be limited to RT Australia cruises which don't include the international airfare that would be included in some premium fares. If someone from the US was taking his usual cruise, that would mean a mass market "add-on" of $2k+\- USD per person. And, moreover, it appears that he is not looking at the tradional itineraries where the premiums do compete well with the mass market in NDR calculations (e.g., non-RT "fly to" 7-10 day Caribbean/Med cruises).

 

 In any case, it's good to see that some folks do the NDR math (or something like it). But, my concern remains for new or inexperienced cruisers who erroneously base their value decisions solely/primarily on a comparison of cabin costs.

Edited September 7, 2020 by Flatbush Flyer

[evandbob]

The process of figuring out a daily cost per person for a cruise is arithmetic, not math.

 

And actually, this post has nothing to do with the OP's question.

Edited September 7, 2020 by evandbob

[FredT]

Itinerary,  Itinerary, Itinerary... WHO is going to go to the more interesting ports?,   the smaller ports?, the "less traveled" ports.  Some of the "premium" cruise lines go to the EXACT same ports as do the "mass market" cruise lines.    Nope, nope nope. (We always ask ourselves, "why do they do this"?    Their smaller ships can go to SOOO many other "unique" ports the behemoth's can't) 

 

But, some of the premium lines are so  much more "per diem" that we cant justify.  

 

We have sailed all the mass market lines, as well as CMV, P&O, Star Clippers, and Windstar. Enjoyed every one.   You going to interesting places and there will NOT be 5000 (Or 10,000) other tourists in port that day?     Sign me up!  

[cruisemom42]

1 minute ago, FredT said:

I've sailed all the mass market lines, as well as CMV, P&O, Star Clippers, and Windstar. Enjoyed every one.   You going to interesting places and there will NOT be 5000 (Or 10,000) other tourists in port that day?     Sign me up!  

 

Of course, you can take the one of the smallest ships sailing and still end up in port with Behemoth of the Seas, disgorging her 7,000 passengers right next to you...

 

I know, I've been there.