US cruising in early January (speculation)

[BirdTravels]

12 hours ago, BND said:

I missed that.  But one of our reps puts out a report everyday.  He also includes  some Virginia, US and global numbers.  We have no large university here, just small one  with dorms and satellite campuses for others, plus the usual online schools.  I do wonder how college town numbers will look, esp in a couple of weeks.

 

As you can see the deaths are skewed heavily towards 80+ and in fact 85 deaths have been in long term care facilities.

 

My particular zip code since March 17th

444 cases, 7,490 tests Population ~ 58,459

 

Loudoun County, VA

Cumulative from March 17th:

Total confirmed cases in Loudoun: 6,327 (+54 over 24 hours)

Total Hospitalization in Loudoun: 402 (+3 over 24 hours)

Current Hospitalization in Loudoun: 13 (+0 over 24 hours)

Total Deaths in Loudoun: 118 (+0 over 264 hours)

Total Tests in Loudoun: 72,573 (+429 over 24 hours)

Loudoun 7-Day Average

PCR Tests: 7.7%

Total Tests: 8.0%

Loudoun Fatalities Stats:

Age 40-49: 1

Age 50-59: 4

Age 60-69: 9

Age 70-79: 19

Age 80+: 84

Age Not Reported: 1

Buy cases are skewed dramatically to the younger crowd, demonstrating which groups are more careless in their COVID mitigation. Not sure you need a rep to post, the county's website is updated daily. https://www.loudoun.gov/5334/COVID-19-Testing-Data

Edited September 12, 2020 by BirdTravels

[beerman2]

4 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:

 

How about a time frame calendar to calculate when the earliest the ships might set sail.  Perhaps there are other time frames to add that others are aware of but I’m going by your suggested dates. 

 

• The cruise lines summit their plans on September 21st.

 

• If the CDC only uses 30 works days (no weekends or holidays) to review the industry plans that becomes November 3rd.  
   
• The Chief said it takes approximately 2 months to get a ship fully operational under normal conditions. If the plan is accepted November 3rd and no extra work is required that would make in January 2nd. 

Then there are the easier unknowns that can take longer. 

 

• The CDC can take longer to make their decision and accept the plan or send it back for more changes for not being acceptable. 

 

• If it’s is accepted the cruise lines might have to make changes to ships (such as ventilation) before they can sail. That amount of time is unknown.

 

 

I agree with part of this, everyone on standby. There is so much unknown, other than the CDC appears to be in no hurry.
 

I personally don’t see the cruise industry physically manning ships until they have an approved plan. They will have crew lined up on land but until they have an accepted plan they don’t even know what ship size and capacity they are allowed to sail with. For example the industry thinks smaller ships are better for cost point but the CDC wants the newer ships that have better air systems.  To determine which ship to prepare for is impossible until you have an accepted plan. 
 

IMO they will try to organize as much as they can, until it is money out of pocket. They will spend that money on experts to put the plans together and maintain their ships at sea but after that they are watching every penny. 
 

When they are “cash strapped“ it is all about the money. 

 

 

Which is why manning the ships ( labor costs) while waiting to know what directions they have to go doesn't make sense. If they are "cash strapped" , paying crew just to be ready , doesn't seem like that's a priority.

 

Chief has always said 4-6 week minimum , which posters still question.

 

There is no doubt this has had a major economic affect on most everyone affiliated with the cruise industry and many others, as well as a mental affect to some/many.

 

I think most of us have seen all we ever want to see and will rejoice when it's over.

Edited September 12, 2020 by beerman2

[Pratique]

4 hours ago, beerman2 said:

Which is why manning the ships ( labor costs) while waiting to know what directions they have to go doesn't make sense. If they are "cash strapped" , paying crew just to be ready , doesn't seem like that's a priority.

 

Chief has always said 4-6 week minimum , which posters still question.

 

There is no doubt this has had a major economic affect on most everyone affiliated with the cruise industry and many others, as well as a mental affect to some/many.

 

I think most of us have seen all we ever want to see and will rejoice when it's over.

Once the CDC publishes the final rules the cruise lines will know what they need to do. They will have at least 30 days notice.

[Pratique]

8 hours ago, A&L_Ont said:

 

How about a time frame calendar to calculate when the earliest the ships might set sail.  Perhaps there are other time frames to add that others are aware of but I’m going by your suggested dates. 

 

• The cruise lines summit their plans on September 21st.

 

• If the CDC only uses 30 works days (no weekends or holidays) to review the industry plans that becomes November 3rd.  
   
• The Chief said it takes approximately 2 months to get a ship fully operational under normal conditions. If the plan is accepted November 3rd and no extra work is required that would make in January 2nd. 

To clarify, the public comment period is at least 30 days after the CDC publishes the final rules. So let's say optimistically CDC publishes the final rules on Nov. 3, then the rules will become effective early December at the earliest, but maybe the cruise lines can start recalling crew in the meantime. As far as manning I assume they will start sailing at reduced capacity which means partial manning, is the chief accounting for that in his estimate, or does it not make a difference?

[Pratique]

7 hours ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Not true at all 

 

Deaths are way down from the spring spike.

 

Even with the outrageous number of positive cases in June and July, our death rates never hit those of NY. 

 

We learned how to save lives

 

I think it's useful to consider both of the graphs, which reflect an attitude outside of the northeast that it was better to reopen than to stay shut down, even though reopening was likely to result in a spike in new cases, while believing that the death rate could be managed. So the idea that things were "being handled" could be qualified.

[A&L_Ont]

19 minutes ago, TheMastodon said:

I don’t think anyone knew it was already around before it was too late

I have said to many people the following sentiment... finding Covid is like finding Kaiser Söze. You don’t know it was around you until it was too late.
 

For those that want to watch a great suspense movie, watch The Usual Suspects.  

[BND]

8 hours ago, BirdTravels said:

Buy cases are skewed dramatically to the younger crowd, demonstrating which groups are more careless in their COVID mitigation. Not sure you need a rep to post, the county's website is updated daily. https://www.loudoun.gov/5334/COVID-19-Testing-Data

Not sure I need anyone telling me what I "need", but thanks.🙄

 

Our rep posts a lot more than our county and he does it so we don't have to go out to multiple sites.   My post was about the numbers, not where it came from.

[A&L_Ont]

6 hours ago, beerman2 said:

Chief has always said 4-6 week minimum , which posters still question.

 

I can only think that those folks do not realize he is a Chief Engineer who worked on NCL or they just choose just not to listen to experience.
 

6 hours ago, beerman2 said:

I think most of us have seen all we ever want to see and will rejoice when it's over.

💯 

[A&L_Ont]

 

2 hours ago, Pratique said:

As far as manning I assume they will start sailing at reduced capacity which means partial manning, is the chief accounting for that in his estimate, or does it not make a difference?

That is a good question. 

@chengkp75 what’s your thoughts on this.  Will reduced staff shorten the time frame once approval is given?  Do you think reduced staff be a part of the industry plan, and if so what to do you think CDC will think about that?
 

 

[A&L_Ont]

 

3 hours ago, Pratique said:

Once the CDC publishes the final rules the cruise lines will know what they need to do. They will have at least 30 days notice.

My understanding is the CDC is not publishing rules.  They initially told the lines to address certain items in their plans, to which they did not do the first go around   The industry plans were not accepted. This is now the second round of plans to be put forward to either be accepted or not. 
 

All of that aside, are these 30 days over and above the 30 day public comment period?

[Pratique]

8 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

 

My understanding is the CDC is not publishing rules.  They initially told the lines to address certain items in their plans, to which they did not do the first go around   The industry plans were not accepted. This is now the second round of plans to be put forward to either be accepted or not. 
 

All of that aside, are these 30 days over and above the 30 day public comment period?

Then I'm not sure how the CDC can enforce anything other than through more "no sail order" type directives if problems crop up. The government is obligated to follow administrative law if they are going to have a say in how things are to be done. At least that's my understanding unless there are already rules in place that would allow them to enforce the plan.

 

The 30 day (at least) public comment period is required when they publish new rules. The rules can go into effect after that, whenever the government decides to have them take effect.

Edited September 12, 2020 by Pratique

[livingonthebeach]

The deadline for public comment is September 21 -- nine days from now.  The cruise lines are monitoring the responses before they submit their plan to the CDC.  Of particular interest to them are probably the answers to the resumption of operations questions:

 

Resumption of Passenger Operations

16. What steps should cruise ship operators take to prevent the introduction of COVID-19 onto ships after resuming passenger operations?

a. Should cruise ship operators deny boarding to passengers with COVID-like illness or confirmed infection with COVID-19?

b. Should cruise ship operators deny boarding to passengers with known exposure to a person with COVID-19 during the previous 14 days?

c. What methods should cruise ship operators use to screen for exposures and detect COVID-like illness in passengers seeking to board the ship?

d. Should cruise ship operators deny boarding to passengers coming from COVID-19 high-incidence geographic areas?

e. How should cruise ship operators manage embarking crew with COVID-like illness, known exposure, or coming from high-incidence geographic areas after resuming passenger operations?

f. Should cruise ship operators test passengers and crew pre-boarding? If yes, what should the testing protocol be?

g. Should cruise ship operators transport and house passengers and crew denied boarding at the seaport to avoid exposing the public?

17. Should cruise ship operators plan to reduce passenger and crew loads to decrease the risk of transmission on board the ship?

a. To what extent and for how long should cruise ship operators reduce passenger capacity?

b. To what extent might reducing passenger capacity affect the economic viability of cruise lines?

c. Should cruise ship operators be required to provide scientific evidence that reducing passenger capacity will prevent transmission on board?

18. Should cruise ship operators decrease the length of voyages and, if so, by how much?

a. How would decreasing the length of voyages affect the transmission of COVID-19 on board the ship and in U.S. communities?

b. Should cruise ship operators be required to provide scientific evidence that reducing length of voyages would decrease the risk of further introduction of COVID-19 to U.S. communities?

19. Should cruise ship operators limit shore excursions?

a. What precautions should cruise ship operators take during shore excursions to prevent passengers and crew from being exposed to COVID-19?

b. During shore excursions, how should cruise ship operators prevent transmission of COVID-19 into land-based communities?

20. Should cruise ship operators restrict the number of persons per room (e.g.,maximum capacity of 2 adults per cabin)?

a. Should cruise ship operators be required to provide single-occupancy rooms with private bathrooms for crew after resuming passenger operations?

21. What mental health services should cruise ship operators provide to crew and passengers during quarantine or isolation?

22. What precautions should the cruise line industry take to safely disembark passengers and crew without transmitting COVID-19 into local seaport communities?

23. Should the cruise line industry immediately cancel cruise voyages if COVID-19 cases are identified on board or after disembarkation?

24. Because of the economic costs associated with cruising, some cruise ship passengers may be reluctant to cancel travel plans if they become ill or are exposed to COVID-19 or may try to hide symptoms of illness. Should cruise ship operators fully refund or provide incentives to passengers that:

a. Are denied boarding due to COVID-like illness symptoms, confirmed infection, or known exposure?

b. are denied boarding due to coming from high-incidence geographic areas?

c. request last-minute cancellations due to COVID-19 concerns?

25. Due to the costs associated with seeking medical care on board, and the likelihood that sick passengers will be isolated and their travel companions Start Printed Page 44085quarantined for the remainder of their voyage, how should cruise ship operators encourage passengers to notify the medical center when they experience COVID-19 symptoms?

26. How should cruise ship operators decrease or eliminate the risk for COVID-19 transmission for both passengers and crew in the following group settings?

a. Embarkation and disembarkation?

b. Safety drills and trainings?

c. Dining?

d. Onboard entertainment events?

e. Shore excursions?

 

https://beta.regulations.gov/document/CDC-2020-0087-0001/comment

 

 

[TheMastodon]

There should be a group cruise for members of the Vaccine and Cruising Early 21’ CC threads so we can all meet and sit back and argue in person.  I owe Pratique and Yogi a drink or two 😇

[Pratique]

15 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

The deadline for public comment is September 21 -- nine days from now.  The cruise lines are monitoring the responses before they submit their plan to the CDC.  Of particular interest to them are probably the answers to the resumption of operations questions:

I was interested in hearing some responses to those questions but when I took a random sampling of comments none of them directly answered any of these questions. Mostly they were just random rants and musings. But maybe buried in the 3,000 comments are some useful suggestions. It will take CDC a while to consider them all if they even bother to. I would not be surprised if the CDC simply says that most of the comments are not relevant. That often happens when the public is invited to comment on anything.

[Pratique]

I went back and re-read the no sail order, which requires the cruise lines to submit a response plan "as a condition of obtaining controlled free pratique to continue to engage in any cruise ship operations." The no sail order is set to expire on Sept. 30. If the order expires, then the requirement for the plan also expires. Therefore, it is likely that the no sail order will once again be extended (probably through the end of this year), but the CDC can't keep extending it indefinitely because that starts to encroach on a due process violation. So at some point either they will have to drop the order or engage in a proper rulemaking process that gives them the authority to further restrict cruise operations. I think that once a plan is approved there will be new regulations that allow CDC or the Coast Guard to enforce those plans in some way or another. Maybe that won't happen until next year, and in the meantime the no sail order is extended a few more times. Just my guess as to what will happen.

[John&LaLa]

5 minutes ago, Pratique said:

I went back and re-read the no sail order, which requires the cruise lines to submit a response plan "as a condition of obtaining controlled free pratique to continue to engage in any cruise ship operations." The no sail order is set to expire on Sept. 30. If the order expires, then the requirement for the plan also expires. Therefore, it is likely that the no sail order will once again be extended (probably through the end of this year), but the CDC can't keep extending it indefinitely because that starts to encroach on a due process violation. So at some point either they will have to drop the order or engage in a proper rulemaking process that gives them the authority to further restrict cruise operations. I think that once a plan is approved there will be new regulations that allow CDC or the Coast Guard to enforce those plans in some way or another. Maybe that won't happen until next year, and in the meantime the no sail order is extended a few more times. Just my guess as to what will happen.

 

Ok, what's the story with your screen name?

 

Just looked up definition. 🤣🤣

[Pratique]

1 minute ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Ok, what's the story with your screen name?

 

Just looked up definition. 🤣🤣

Look for the bright yellow flag on the main-mast next time you sail into port.

[A&L_Ont]

19 minutes ago, Pratique said:

Look for the bright yellow flag on the main-mast next time you sail into port.

isn’t that the quarantine flag?

[Pratique]

45 minutes ago, A&L_Ont said:

isn’t that the quarantine flag?

Free of contagious disease was the traditional meaning.

[John&LaLa]

Just now, Pratique said:

Free of contagious disease was the traditional meaning.

 

I get that part, but youve had this moniker for 4 years. Did you have a crystsl ball?

[Pratique]

14 minutes ago, John&LaLa said:

 

I get that part, but youve had this moniker for 4 years. Did you have a crystsl ball?

ipeeinthepool was taken. LOL I wish I had a crystal ball, my predictions are off sometimes. I thought the days of ship quarantines ended a century ago. The flag has just become another naval tradition (they have radios now). Or so I thought.

Edited September 12, 2020 by Pratique

[Tree_skier]

On 9/8/2020 at 6:29 PM, BND said:

For one person.  Don't jump to conclusions.  It's routine to do what they did.  Don't panic.

 

https://www.statnews.com/2020/09/08/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-study-put-on-hold-due-to-suspected-adverse-reaction-in-participant-in-the-u-k/

 

Trial back on...

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/oxford-astrazeneca-resume-coronavirus-vaccine-trial

[TheMastodon]

1 hour ago, John&LaLa said:

 

Ok, what's the story with your screen name?

 

Just looked up definition. 🤣🤣

Pratique in French means Convenient Hahahaha I always thought he just likes French culture or something

[TheMastodon]

1 minute ago, Tree_skier said:

Trial back on...

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/oxford-astrazeneca-resume-coronavirus-vaccine-trial

fantastic news

 

bad news for those rooting for Covid

[BND]

2 minutes ago, Tree_skier said:

Trial back on...

 

https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/oxford-astrazeneca-resume-coronavirus-vaccine-trial

I just saw that.