CDC says no more masks for the vaccinated, so now what?

[nocl]

46 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Unfortunately not, other that what we know about the Celebrity non US startup cruises in St Maarten and Athens with regards to their 95% vaccination requirements. Hopefully, they'll submit their Phase 2A plans to the CDC for their initial US port startup cruise ships in the next week or two so well finally know whether or not they'll be able to offer restricted sailings in July. 

The vaccination requirements in St. Maarten and Athens are not necessarily an indicator for what they will do from the US.  The 95% requirement is a US requirement to avoid certain other restrictions.  While Celebrity has said that the initial cruises from St Maarten and Athens will require full vaccination they have not put any dates on that protocol.  They have not made any statement about US cruises beyond a rather vague comment about will do what  countries require.

 

Since the US does not require the cruise line to select the vaccination option that comment provides no clarity.

[cangelmd]

3 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

When I hear this question, these two charts come to mind. Every morning I look at them just to see how things are going. In the case of my state, Alabama, the first chart which displays the percentage of folks fully vaccinated shows that we're pretty much hovering around last or second to last when compared to other states. Note: You'll need to go down about half way to see the US map with all the states listed.

 

More Than 1.45 Billion Shots Given: Covid-19 Vaccine Tracker (bloomberg.com)

 

Then, this second one shows the daily 7 day moving average of new COVID infections in each state. Alabama was looking good until a few days ago

 

Have we flattened the curve in the US? - Johns Hopkins (jhu.edu)

 

But, if you're really interested in finding out what's happening in your state, check out these two links. As far as my family is concerned we're all vaccinated now and that's a big relief. What other folks do is on them. We just want to go cruising again and sure are excited that Celebrity is going for the 95%/98% vaccinated option.

 

 

As I have pointed out before Ken, take the Alabama data from Johns Hopkins with a grain of salt. they do not look any deeper into the data they are seeing. In the last week, we have had a few thousand cases reported on each of 2 days - 3000+ one day and 4000+ another. The numbers in between were in the low 300s, which is our average for a few weeks. I'm almost positive those are delayed reports from weeks or even months ago. The disease is exponential, but doesn't shoot up and down like that! JHU never asterisks or makes any notes about its data, and so that will skew the averages a bit.

Hospitalizations have remained little changed for weeks, deaths have increased very slowly. Vaccinations are abysmal, but increasing very slowly.

[cangelmd]

11 minutes ago, nocl said:

The Director in the White House briefing a couple of days ago stated

 

Finally, we know that in the rare event that people get infected after a vaccine, the resulting infection is more likely to have a lower viral load, be shorter in duration, and likely less risky of transmission to others.

As you well understand Nocl, if you dig long enough you can find almost any combinations of circumstances. Infection leading to death or severe disability acquired from a vaccinated person may well eventually occur, but will be very, very (vanishingly rare) and a risk I would be willing to take to cruise or otherwise live a normal life. More rare I dare say than a fatal car accident.

 

Just need to know how long this protection will last.

[nocl]

6 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

As you well understand Nocl, if you dig long enough you can find almost any combinations of circumstances. Infection leading to death or severe disability acquired from a vaccinated person may well eventually occur, but will be very, very (vanishingly rare) and a risk I would be willing to take to cruise or otherwise live a normal life. More rare I dare say than a fatal car accident.

 

Just need to know how long this protection will last.

The Israeli data shows a reduction in transmission of 94% involving vaccinated individuals.  

 

Considerably different from that claim that the vaccine eliminates all transmission from vaccinated individuals.

 

The study I referenced above does indicate a reduction of viral load, not an elimination.  So yes risk is reduced but not eliminated as was the claim I was responding to.

 

What is interesting is the recent set of infections in Singapore with B.1.617. That will be interesting since it involves Moderna and Pfizer with the India variant.

Edited May 17, 2021 by nocl

[cangelmd]

4 minutes ago, nocl said:

The Israeli data shows a reduction in transmission of 94% involving vaccinated individuals.  

 

Considerably different from that claim that the vaccine eliminates all transmission from vaccinated individuals.

Definitely not zero, BUT, we are talking about an environment where >90% of people should/will be vaccinated, that should maximize the 94%. Remember, and i can't do the math because I couldn't find the actual Israeli study, just discussions and quotes of the study, that it is not 6% transmission, it's a 94% reduction in transmission, that should be way less than 6 out of 100 vaccinated people will transmit virus.

I also can't find when the Israeli study was done, although I think when I originally saw it a couple of months ago, they differentiated between people who were a full two weeks past last dose and people who might have tested positive or transmitted infection before being completely immunized.

[LGW59]

1 hour ago, nocl said:

the media has a habit of grabbing data out of context.  thus the search for the original statement with full context.

I consider CC to be the media so often...

[Ken the cruiser]

35 minutes ago, nocl said:

The vaccination requirements in St. Maarten and Athens are not necessarily an indicator for what they will do from the US.  The 95% requirement is a US requirement to avoid certain other restrictions.  While Celebrity has said that the initial cruises from St Maarten and Athens will require full vaccination they have not put any dates on that protocol.  They have not made any statement about US cruises beyond a rather vague comment about will do what  countries require.

 

Since the US does not require the cruise line to select the vaccination option that comment provides no clarity.

That's why hopefully in the next week or two we'll all get some clarity, especially those that have PIF Celebrity cruises in July out of Ft Lauderdale and/or New Jersey. But, for our money we're hoping they choose the 95%/98% vaccination option which will allow X to go directly to the restricted Phase 4 cruises,  bypassing the simulated cruises.

[nocl]

17 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

Definitely not zero, BUT, we are talking about an environment where >90% of people should/will be vaccinated, that should maximize the 94%. Remember, and i can't do the math because I couldn't find the actual Israeli study, just discussions and quotes of the study, that it is not 6% transmission, it's a 94% reduction in transmission, that should be way less than 6 out of 100 vaccinated people will transmit virus.

I also can't find when the Israeli study was done, although I think when I originally saw it a couple of months ago, they differentiated between people who were a full two weeks past last dose and people who might have tested positive or transmitted infection before being completely immunized.

There have actually been several studies.  Yes they did differentiate based upon time period the 94% is from the fully vaccinated segment.

 

I am not disagreeing with the low risk on a fully vaccinated cruise.  I am just pointing out that one should use data appropriately when discussing risk, not using hyperbole in either direction.

 

The problem with the recent CDC announcement is that it will be abused by unvaccinated individuals.  As a result we have basically removed most of the ability to require masks in a public environment at a time when less than 50% is fully vaccinated.  Needless to say a number of epidemiologists are shaking their heads at the nature and timing of the announcement. 

 

Will be interesting to see if we get another change in direction of the infections with the fairly rapid change to wide open lets party.

 

Low risk not equal to no risk.

[nocl]

6 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

That's why hopefully in the next week or two we'll all get some clarity, especially those that have PIF Celebrity cruises in July out of Ft Lauderdale and/or New Jersey. But, for our money we're hoping they choose the 95%/98% vaccination option which will allow X to go directly to the restricted Phase 4 cruises,  bypassing the simulated cruises.

I certainly agree in that I also hope that all of the cruise lines take the vaccinated option.  Unfortunately, other than NCL, there have not been any clear statements from the big 3.  And even with NCL they have not completed the next step (the port agreements). or filed the vaccination option documents.

[Aloha 1]

On 5/14/2021 at 2:17 PM, K.T.B. said:

 

Of 117 million people who have been fully vaccinated, there have been 9,245 verified cases of people getting Covid.  The majority of them mild.

 

EDIT:  LINK

Do the math. Actually over 165 million have been vaccinated. The case rate translates into .07%, well below the POTENTIAL rate of 5%. Therefore, the vaccines are doing better than expected.

Edited May 17, 2021 by Aloha 1

[Ken the cruiser]

40 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

As I have pointed out before Ken, take the Alabama data from Johns Hopkins with a grain of salt. they do not look any deeper into the data they are seeing. In the last week, we have had a few thousand cases reported on each of 2 days - 3000+ one day and 4000+ another. The numbers in between were in the low 300s, which is our average for a few weeks. I'm almost positive those are delayed reports from weeks or even months ago. The disease is exponential, but doesn't shoot up and down like that! JHU never asterisks or makes any notes about its data, and so that will skew the averages a bit.

Hospitalizations have remained little changed for weeks, deaths have increased very slowly. Vaccinations are abysmal, but increasing very slowly.

Actually, they do if you select the State Profile option and drill down to the Notes section under Hospilalization. They just haven't posted the Notes yet for the latest correction, just info about the correction submitted on March 15th. But, that's ok, it is what it is and I was pretty sure we didn't have that big of influx for no reason. But, as you said, the vaccination rate is abysmal given the fact vaccines are widely available in our state now. A lot of folks just don't want to take it for whatever reason. I have noticed, though, the ADPH is starting to advertise their availability on tv lately, which is a good thing.

[Aloha 1]

So, the title of the thread is now what? Instead of splitting hairs I suggest we focus on the "now what". In my opinion that means no mandatory masks ANYWHERE on board.  your personal discretion only. Go ashore on a ships tour or independent. Follow the local rules at each port. Nothing else needs to be said.

[Ken the cruiser]

28 minutes ago, nocl said:

I certainly agree in that I also hope that all of the cruise lines take the vaccinated option.  Unfortunately, other than NCL, there have not been any clear statements from the big 3.  And even with NCL they have not completed the next step (the port agreements). or filed the vaccination option documents.

But then why is NCL canvassing their loyal cruisers to see if they would like to volunteer for test cruises? Now why would they be asking that if all of their startup cruises are going to be 100% vaccinated?

 

 

Edited May 17, 2021 by Ken the cruiser

[Ken the cruiser]

16 minutes ago, Aloha 1 said:

So, the title of the thread is now what? Instead of splitting hairs I suggest we focus on the "now what". In my opinion that means no mandatory masks ANYWHERE on board.  your personal discretion only. Go ashore on a ships tour or independent. Follow the local rules at each port. Nothing else needs to be said.

So now IMHO it's time for the cruise lines to submit their completed Phase 2A protocol plans for each of their ships they want to do US port startup cruises. This includes defining if vaccines are going to be mandatory or not which, in turn, will determine if simulated cruises will be required, and let's get this show on the road.

 

As far as no masks onboard, I would think that will highly depend of whether or not a cruise ship chooses to sail with 95+% vaccinated onboard while under the CSO.

Edited May 17, 2021 by Ken the cruiser

[nocl]

14 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

But then why is NCL canvassing their loyal cruisers to see if they would like to volunteer for test cruises? Now why would they be asking that if all of their startup cruises are going to be 100% vaccinated?

 

 

That is a good question.

 

I would give three possibilities

 

1. They lied when they said that voyages out of the US would be fully vaccinated

 

2. It is more difficult than they thought to be able to check and make sure that everyone is in fact vaccinated (since the CDC 95% requirement would place the company legally at risk if they failed to meet that requirement)

 

or 

 

3. They are covering their bases if the Florida law preventing companies from checking vaccination status hold up and they are unable to do fully vaccinated cruises out of Florida.

 

I would expect that  option 3  might be the more likely but option 2 is also a possibility if they need to go beyond just checking a vaccination card at check in.

[nocl]

10 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

So now IMHO it's time for the cruise lines to submit their completed Phase 2A protocol plans for each of their ships they want to do US port startup cruises. This includes defining if vaccines are going to be mandatory or not which, in turn, will determine if simulated cruises will be required, and let's get this show on the road.

I would be happy to even see one of them complete their port agreements which would make it clear that they are actively working to get beck to cruising out of the US.

[Host Jazzbeau]

Based on the post quoted below, it wouldn't surprise me if Baltimore is the first port with a Phase 2A plan:

 

[K.T.B.]

1 hour ago, Aloha 1 said:

Do the math. Actually over 165 million have been vaccinated. The case rate translates into .07%, well below the POTENTIAL rate of 5%. Therefore, the vaccines are doing better than expected.

 

165 million have at least one shot, 117 million are fully vaccinated.  There is a bit of a difference.  Oh, and by "fully vaccinated" that means at least 2 weeks since you had your second dose (or only dose of J&J).

[ipeeinthepool]

10 hours ago, nocl said:

The Israeli data shows a reduction in transmission of 94% involving vaccinated individuals.  

 

Considerably different from that claim that the vaccine eliminates all transmission from vaccinated individuals.

 

The study I referenced above does indicate a reduction of viral load, not an elimination.  So yes risk is reduced but not eliminated as was the claim I was responding to.

 

What is interesting is the recent set of infections in Singapore with B.1.617. That will be interesting since it involves Moderna and Pfizer with the India variant.

 

Here is the source of the data cited in the CDC announcement.

 

Postvaccination SARS-CoV-2 Infections Among Skilled Nursing Facility Residents and Staff Members — Chicago, Illinois, December 2020–March 2021 | MMWR (cdc.gov)

 

Here's the slide from the CDC presentation last week.  No facility-associated secondary transmission was observed.  You can do whatever you like with the information, but this is the information and the key studies that the CDC said was important.

 

No facility-associated secondary transmission was observed.

 

[NMTraveller]

22 hours ago, TeeRick said:

  Wonder how long it will take for vaccinated people to remove masks?

It is moving fast as word gets out.  Ninety percent are maskless with the 10% wearing them on the chin (on/off).

Edited May 17, 2021 by NMTraveller

[TeeRick]

20 hours ago, LGW59 said:

We arrived in Provincetown, MA yesterday and masks are no longer required and very few people are wearing one.  Still when entering a restaurant and even outdoor patio dining, still need to mask up until seated.  I’ll be good with it though sitting on a patio looking out at PTown harbor, sans mask, almost makes me delirious!!

It is a beautiful harbor there.  Enjoy your vacation!

[TeeRick]

15 hours ago, nocl said:

Not quite.  The best paper on the subject looking at the Pfizer vaccine does show a reduction in viral load during the studied period 12-37 days.  However, as of this time there is no definitive viral level for transmission. 

 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01316-7

 

Since there are documented cases of transmission from a vaccinated individual risk for transmission is decreased, but not eliminated.  Another study has indicated that transmission was reduced by 94% with the Pfizer vaccine when dealing with the original strain and B.117.  

 

No data on transmission with some of the newer strains such as B.1.671 is available.  However there are documented cases of transmission both to and from vaccinated individuals with that strain in Singapore where the vaccines used were Pfizer and Moderna

 

It is interesting how some people disparage the CDC when it does something they do not like, but then quickly references them as a source when they are in favor of the position.

 

 

There is a viral challenge study in healthy adults approved in the UK that will help define the level of viral load needed for transmission.  And then it will look at vaccinated vs unvaccinated.  So maybe that will help finally answer this question with some direct data.

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-56097088#:~:text=Healthy%2C young volunteers will be,90 people aged 18-30.

[PTC DAWG]

32 minutes ago, NMTraveller said:

It is moving fast as word gets out.  Ninety percent are maskless with the 10% wearing them on the chin (on/off).

Fully vaccinated, done with masks...FWIW I have only worn one where it was absolutely required for entry...and then many times, I just went elsewhere.  Local Home Depot lost a lot of business to the two locally owned hardware stores in my area.  

[TeeRick]

Folks the CDC has removed mask requirements for most situations for the fully vaccinated.  That is because a lot of people made heroic efforts to develop highly effective vaccines in record time.  And a lot more worked on getting a substantial portion of the US population vaccinated and now other countries are moving forward and getting it done too.  So I am really confused (or amazed maybe) that this thread on "so now what?" is having continued debates on the viral transmission and masking and fine details and fine percentages and frankly semantics.  "So Now What"?  In short order safe cruising for the vaccinated.

[TrulyBlonde]

We started with no masks, then we were told to wear a mask, 2 masks were next and told we were all doomed. Now we are allowed no masks if vaccinated. Wow, this is exhausting.

I removed mine and will only wear when required. Definitely won't cruise if I need to wear a mask.