Viking's Fair Payment Schedule

We have taken two previous Viking River Cruises and loved both of them. I began looking for a third. While checking on dates and availability I discovered that Viking must have changed their payment schedule. For a cruise in August 2018, they want payment in full by June 30, 2017 - more than 14 months in advance. I am not about to float Viking a long term no interest loan. Our latest cruise last year was payment in full 6 months out.

I looked at Avalon and it looked like their policy is a more reasonable 90 days before sailing. I was wondering what others think of this policy and what other cruise lines require for payment.

TIA

Hello eguiney,

Rather than go into detail may I give you links to two threads where this has been the topic recently: http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2492553 and http://boards.cruisecritic.com/showthread.php?t=2486793

Have a look at the current website of Viking: An offer expired on 30 April the next offer will expire on 31 May, guess what will likely happen on 30 June if there are not enough bookings for 2018?

Hope this helps.

notamermaid

You can also negotiate final payment with Viking. Suggest that you contact Viking to discuss further. I normally pay within 6 months of my cruise.

While I am prepared to pay in full immediately for a "real" discount, as noted Viking's 2-for-1 is not; it is their normal price.

I got single supplement waived on both my upcoming trips which is a substantial discount; Ama to Vietnam and Cambodia and Avalon to Myanmar - neither required payment upfront.

I'm actually a bit surprised that Uniworld's early booking discount (which is only 10%) for 2018 trips requires payment in full at time of booking.

Viking only do this in the North American market, elsewhere they are around 90 days like a lot of others.

As suggested above, negotiate or have your TA negotiate for you.

Not long ago we booked a Viking river cruise through the travel department of a big box store. Viking wanted final payment in June 2017 for the April 2018 cruise. The TA requested a later date and now final payment is October 2017. 6 months is better than the standard requirement so get your TA to negotiate with Viking.

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Thanks for the reply's. I was working directly with Viking as I have done for our other two cruised. both of those worked well even getting free beverage package on the last one and 6 month time frame for payment was the norm without asking.

On this one it was like "If you don't want it someone else will". So I guess someone else will and Viking has lost a customer.

Thanks for the reply's. I was working directly with Viking as I have done for our other two cruised. both of those worked well even getting free beverage package on the last one and 6 month time frame for payment was the norm without asking.

On this one it was like "If you don't want it someone else will". So I guess someone else will and Viking has lost a customer.

As a long time ocean cruiser, I was shocked that payment was expected almost immediately after booking our first river cruise on Viking. This is a real negative for a repeat booking as we have other trips planned with their payments staggered three months out on each. Not good for business except for holding customers' money for longer periods of time....

It's interesting that other lines may offer bonuses for early payment. On a Vantage cruise two years ago we got a 10% overall discount for paying a year early. Not too many investments these days that have a guaranteed 10% return.

On some lines you get a discount for booking early and paying the deposit the total is then payed 90 days before the cruise. CA

That's how they pay for all the new ships--advance payment so far out give them a healthy cash flow with no offset interest debits.

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I did some very rough estimates of the Viking cash situation.

Viking River has (I think) 59 boats. Most carry 190 passengers. Approximate number of Viking River berths: 10,000. River boats sail about 35 weeks a year. Approximate number of Viking River berth-weeks per year: 350,000. Rough guess at percentage of Viking River berth-weeks sold in the US (with payment procured almost immediately): 50%. Average cost of a Viking River berth-week: greater than US$3000.

350,000 berth-weeks * 0.50 with immediate payment * US$3000 ~ US$500,000,000.

Not all Viking cruises are sold a full year out, but many are sold that much in advance or further. 3 years ago I tried to sign up for Viking Douro 9 months out, put down a deposit to be placed on a wait list (I was told only a single wait list position per cruise) and never cleared.

Viking Ocean is now selling 5 ships, each with 930 passenger berths. Applying the same analysis:

240,000 berth-weeks * 0.50 with immediate payment * US$3000 ~ US$360,000,000.

So if Viking has sold every cabin for the next 52 weeks (and none further out than that), collects immediate payment on only half of those, and is getting an average $3000 per berth (probably higher than that). They will have close to a billion dollars against future cruises. Viking is privately held and does not release info on where that money goes, but I doubt it is in escrow to pay for your cruise when (or should I say if) it finally happens.

To put that almost $1 Billion dollars paid out way in advance to Viking in context read Viking’s T&Cs:

Viking is an Active Member of United States Tour Operator’s Association (“USTOA”) and participates in the USTOA’s Travelers Assistance Program. You may make a claim to this program if you are owed a refund. The Plan covers losses for transportation or travel services that were not refunded when required. A guest may make a claim against the Plan within 90 days after a Viking bankruptcy, insolvency or cessation of business or failure to fund on account of cancellation or non-performance. USTOA’s total liability for all consumer claims from customers of Viking is limited to $1,000,000. In some cases $1,000,000 may not be sufficient to cover all losses.

Basically $1 Million out of $1 Billion is protected – not very good odds.

A year ago (May 2016) Moody’s https://www.moodys.com/research/Moodys-downgrades-Vikings-CFR-to-B2--PR_348468 downgraded Viking Cruise’s Ltd to:

Corporate Family Rating to B2 from B1

Probability of Default Rating to B2-PD from B1-PD

Senior unsecured notes to Caa1, LGD 5 from B3, LGD 5

I make no claim of being a bond expert, but to me a B2 Probability of Default on their bonds does not look great.

As long as the economy stays great this house of cards should remain standing. BUT I’m sure there are some who remember Renaissance Cruise Line (another company that had expanded rapidly) who defaulted in 2001, leaving lots of passengers holding the bag.

IMO anyone who books Viking and pays far ahead should have GOOD Default Insurance from a third party (insurance sold through the cruise line rarely, if ever, covers default).

Great analysis, and one of the reasons I'll never cruise with Viking. Hadn't thought to compare the situation with that of Renaissance, but doing so is a bit scary for sure.

Very interesting and insightful reading. Thank you for confirming my thoughts.

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Social media must work. I got a phone call from a Viking "Senior" Customer Service Rep. He worked his magic and now payment is only 6 months out as well as some on board credit and more on board credit when I mentioned I had friends who were going on a Viking cruise as referrals.

Very interesting TravelerThom,

river cruising is like almost any business a supply and demand thing. We all know how that works. With Viking I was a bit sceptical when they had that record launching of ships year. I think it shifted the whole thing and now it is a question of keeping up demand as the enormous supply is there. Marketing costs money. One thing is sponsoring the "Genius": https://www.vikingcruises.com/press/press-releases/viking-cruises-sponsors-genius-series.html, the other one before was Downton Abbey and there is the ever changing "runs-out-offer" on the website. Watched a programme on consumer psychology the other day... Earlier this year I counted 352 sailing for the Rhine Getaway itinerary alone.

notamermaid

TravelerThom--Interesting post. Sort of a good point. Too many numbers out of thin air. We don't really know how early the typical Viking customer books.. We have no idea how many people pay in full at booking. How many people ask for different terms. How quick TAs are to offer alternate terms. You didn't mention the 3.3% discount for paying via echeck. That removes a layer of customer protection. Many cruise west passengers fell into that trap.

The other side of the issue. Allianz is one of the larger travel insurers. They're not in business to lose money.

Viking River and Ocean cruises are still on the list of covered suppliers (as of April 28, 2017)

https://partner.allianztravelinsurance.com/Documents/Library/uploadedfiles/CoveredSuppliers/Covered%20Supplier%20List.pdf

They may have access to financial information as opposed to mere speculation.

I agree with your conclusion. I wouldn't book Viking without travel insurance which covers financial default. I notice a number of the River Cruise lines aren't included on Allianzs list, including this months contest sponsor.

We are very satisfied Viking customers of now three cruises, but due to this scenario (and thanks to the advice of our TA!) we always purchase 3rd party travel insurance.

I certainly hope that Viking can continue to be a success, but reality is reality.

BTW, we've been okay with paying in advance since we have taken advantage of their great airfare deals, and consider it the cost of savings. I've always simply assumed that this is how they pay for all of the new ships...

Jeff

Never mind

TravelerThom--Interesting post. Sort of a good point. Too many numbers out of thin air. We don't really know how early the typical Viking customer books.. We have no idea how many people pay in full at booking. How many people ask for different terms. How quick TAs are to offer alternate terms. You didn't mention the 3.3% discount for paying via echeck. That removes a layer of customer protection. Many cruise west passengers fell into that trap.

 

The other side of the issue. Allianz is one of the larger travel insurers. They're not in business to lose money.

Viking River and Ocean cruises are still on the list of covered suppliers (as of April 28, 2017)

https://partner.allianztravelinsurance.com/Documents/Library/uploadedfiles/CoveredSuppliers/Covered%20Supplier%20List.pdf

They may have access to financial information as opposed to mere speculation.

 

I agree with your conclusion. I wouldn't book Viking without travel insurance which covers financial default. I notice a number of the River Cruise lines aren't included on Allianzs list, including this months contest sponsor.

Good points.

We have coverage through Allianz to deal with our insurance needs.

In certain jurisdictions, namely Ontario, it may be wise to transfer your reservation to a locally-licenced Travel Agent. They are covered by insurance (TICO in Ontario) that re-imburses for the bankruptcy of a vacation or cruise provider.

The cruise market is certainly interesting and there continues to be major expansion by many corporations. Obviously another event such as 9/11, which played a major role in the demise of Renaissance, would create many challenges.

...The other side of the issue. Allianz is one of the larger travel insurers. They're not in business to lose money. Viking River and Ocean cruises are still on the list of covered suppliers (as of April 28, 2017)

https://partner.allianztravelinsurance.com/Documents/Library/uploadedfiles/CoveredSuppliers/Covered%20Supplier%20List.pdf

They may have access to financial information as opposed to mere speculation...

An issue unique to Viking is that via their sales techniques, they are holding a much higher percentage of unearned revenue a lot longer than other companies. This places the consumer payments at risk for an extended time. If one pays the bulk of the cruise fare by credit card only 60 days out (the policy of some cruise lines) your chances of losing large sums of money is greatly reduced.

I admit that my number of 50% of 52 week forward sales being paid in full is an educated guess (but I highly doubt that the number is lower than 20% and doubt that it is higher than 80%. The berth-weeks per year should be accurate to actual sales to within 10%. My cost of $3000 per berth-week may be 10-20% low. I think those numbers are adequate to make an order of magnitude estimate, and I do not concede that they are out of thin air numbers. I stand by an estimate that Viking is holding somewhere between several hundred million and several billion dollars of unearned revenue.

 

I admit that my number of 50% of 52 week forward sales being paid in full is an educated guess (but I highly doubt that the number is lower than 20% and doubt that it is higher than 80%. I stand by an estimate that Viking is holding somewhere between several hundred million and several billion dollars of unearned revenue.

I agree with your conclusion. No way I'd prepay a cruise 12 months (or more) in advance. Not sure I'm completely comfortable with 6 months. 60 or even 90 days a credit card charge back, if necessary, is relatively easy. The iIssue isn't just default. Something changes to affect bookings in 2018 and Viking's cash flow could be dramatically impacted. All the expenses and relatively low revenue. The cruise experience could be negatively impacted prior to default. Included tours could become a joke. Food could be downgraded. Cruises cancelled and consolidated.

However, Moody's notes that the level of customer deposits well exceeds Viking's level of cash balances.

That said the Moody's report you cited is more then a year old.

You think between 20-80% of the passengers prepaid at least 12 months in advance. Several hundred million could be 300 million. Several billion dollars of unearned revenue could be 3 billion. 300 million to 3 billion is a big range. 100X

I agree with your concerns and issues. I think your numbers are out of thin air. We don't know how many customers book how many months in advance. We don't know how many customers pay when asked and how many ask for better terms.

Maybe the intent is discourage bookings on spec. I don't know the answer...could a customer booking now for 2017 be more likely to keep a reservation then a customer booking now for 2018? I guess if you really thought the 2 for 1 was legit and ending you might. Viking 2 for 1 pricing seems like jewelry pricing at department stores like Macy's. Never even available for sale at "list price".

...

1) That said the Moody's report you cited is more then a year old...

2) 300 million to 3 billion is a big range. 100X...

3) Maybe the intent is discourage bookings on spec.....

2) The standard physicist joke about engineers is that they have lots of digits, but don't know where the decimal goes; physicists did the quick and dirty calculation in their head and only have one digit, but know where the decimal is. My physics training tells me that 300 million to 3 billion is 10X or one order of magnitude as claimed:cool:

3) Most river cruises (unlike many ocean lines) have non-refundable deposits. A $500 non-refundable deposit gets rid of most of the spec bookings. It does not make sense to me that many/most ocean lines allow 100% deposit refund on North American bookings up until the 60-90 day Final Payment date; they get a lot of spec bookings and really don't know where they stand until Final Payment. Of course I use this to my benefit by checking the desperation sales that often occur slightly inside of Final Payment - I have gotten some terrific deals that way, but you have to be willing to take the cabins that are available, and accept that there may be NO cabins available. I also check for Last Minute Sales on river cruises and have some success there also.

I know that you are Looking for Facts, and I respect that, but IMO there is also a place for quick and dirty estimates as long as one has some appreciation for the possible deviation.

Thom

You're right, I added an extra 0. JMO Total number of berths and average fare is an educated guess. Number of passengers who pay in full more then 12 months before departure maybe no so educated. Do you have any hard figures? 20 to 80% is some range.

Nevertheless I agree with your conclusion. Paying in full even 6 months in advance isn't a great idea. Paying a year, or more, is looking for trouble.

I've never booked a river cruise. I know the deposits say they're non-refundable but I wasn't sure if that was enforced. Asking for money that early sounds like an attempt for cheap financing. Reduce borrowing.

I am new to Viking Ocean and booked a Christmas 2018 Mediterranean Cruise last week by calling Viking directly. Long story short after making the $1000 deposit and being given a final payment date of Nov 30, 2017 I was in shock, and really should have just said no at the time.

After reading CC, I called the customer service number & explained that I would like a 6 month final payment window to the nice lady who answered the phone. When she said this was impossible, I told her to please get a supervisor as I was sure that it was even though she could not do it.

The supervisor did in fact move my final payment to July 16, 2018. He also said that 300 days in advance I could call the Viking air program (I included premium economy with the $50 addon to customize) and if I was unhappy with what Viking could offer me I could cancel the airfare portion without penalty.

I will start looking for my air a full year in advance and if I find it I will book it and cancel the Viking air.

I will also use Allianz as my trip insurance. If any of you more experienced Viking cruisers have more tips that would be helpful please let me know!

Thanks for all the help already!