Diamond Princess passenger "tested positive for Wuhan coronavirus"

[kathy49]

11 minutes ago, npcl said:

what I am saying is that there was an agreement with the japanese. there was a list developed and agreed to. Custody was transferred from the Japanesr to the US. At that point it is a problem for the US to deal with. Leaving them there would have required the Japanese to allow the transfer of custody back to Japan. So at that point the choices were 1. get Japan to accept custody and leave them there 2. transport them back to the US 3. get another plane to put them on.  The choice taken was 2 with as much separation as possible.

 

Item 1 would have needed Japans approval and would have ment the US failing to live up to its side of the agreement, which ment taking all of the passengers on the agreed upon list. 

 

As far as risk to the other passengers they had already spent several hours intermixed with those same passengers in very close quarters on the buses. At least on the planes they were somewhat isolated. Separated from the other passengers by at least 6 feet and plastic sheeting. So while there might be some air flow it was not direct, no direct contact, and sufficient distance to avoid direct droplet transmission. None of which can be said for the time already spent on the busses.

I just don't understand why they could not have waited for this operation until all the pending tests were completed. It sounds like it was a matter of a short time.

Edited February 24, 2020 by kathy49

[fragilek]

5 minutes ago, kathy49 said:

I just don't understand why they could not have waited for this operation until all the pending tests were completed. It sounds like it was a matter of a short time.

Agreed that would have been a different plan and was the one used by most other countries( and had I been an evacuees my favoured one especially as I like some would have stayed in my cabin the whole time).  However, we now know that the test results were not conclusive either, it's like a circle there is no end.   A puzzle with no right answers

[Colo Cruiser]

1 hour ago, mayleeman said:

 

It is enlightening to read your posts.

 

So many others, like the author of that article, start out with "I'm not an expert, but...." and then go on to prove they aren't. 

 

Half of the posts on this thread are efforts to correct misinformation. Thank you for having the patience to continue to do so. 

One can be what ever they want to be on the internet.  😉

[dog]

10 minutes ago, kathy49 said:

I just don't understand why they could not have waited for this operation until all the pending tests were completed. It sounds like it was a matter of a short time.

Someone slipped up big time in my opinion. Was it Princess letting US citizens disembark without proof of negative lab test?  Was it Japanese gov’t who put he ship/ passengers under 14 day quarantine letting them disembark early without proof of negative results or was it US gov’t who took over at time of disembarking?  

[kathy49]

10 minutes ago, dog said:

Someone slipped up big time in my opinion. Was it Princess letting US citizens disembark without proof of negative lab test?  Was it Japanese gov’t who put he ship/ passengers under 14 day quarantine letting them disembark early without proof of negative results or was it US gov’t who took over at time of disembarking?  

no question if US was going to accept them Japan wanted them gone! I am not faulting Japan but rather US government which it seems now are arguing about who made the decision etc.

[Farts]

3 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

And, finally, really?  Farting can spread the virus?

😂😂😂

[mayleeman]

33 minutes ago, kathy49 said:

All thoughts should be welcome and if some have more expertise on the topics that are more scientific, great to share ,but the putting down of others gets old.

People are entitled to their opinions, but they are not entitled to their own individualized versions of facts or unthinking posting of rumors. Examples include the A/C discussion, the plumbing, the vacation/pay amounts promised by Princess, and the references to changes in the Olympic Marathon that I corrected previously.

 

The most common one seems to be the comments about how "the quarantine obviously didn't work because look at how many passengers have gotten sick"--how many times have health professionals here had to post the fact that the purpose was to protect the spread off of the ship, not on it?

 

Granted, a big problem is probably that the thread is now so long only a few people are likely to have read the whole thing. Many issues have been discussed but I doubt anyone coming new to this thread discovers that their excited new theory has been addressed 50 pages ago.

 

Lay people are free to speculate all they want, but it is also incumbent upon them to be willing to stop  when their speculation is debunked.

[Farts]

Sad that another person died. 

 

I wonder what the mortality on the DP compared to the world average. It may give us a more accurate estimate of mortality rate. 

[Farts]

4 minutes ago, mayleeman said:

Lay people are free to speculate all they want, but it is also incumbent upon them to be willing to stop  when their speculation is debunked.

That will never happen. 

 

It is like trying to convince anti-vaccine or statin skeptics...

[kathy49]

4 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Actually Ebola would have been contained much more easily on a ship. It is not an airborne disease. And isolation to cabins would have stopped the spread immediately. It also has a much shorter incubation period.

I think this was unique in that in real time we (the outside world) was watching the passengers on board via their utubes etc. We saw first hand the walks on deck with many people complying with orders but many not....people sharing cabins with their neighbors...food being delivered for first days with no mask required to open door and food prepared by crew...on and on....all for live view...of course now we will have so many opinions about it and we have yet to hear from the passengers directly after they are released.I can imagine the stories coming out for the weeks to come.

[DCGuy64]

2 hours ago, mayleeman said:

 

It is enlightening to read your posts.

 

So many others, like the author of that article, start out with "I'm not an expert, but...." and then go on to prove they aren't. 

 

Half of the posts on this thread are efforts to correct misinformation. Thank you for having the patience to continue to do so. 

Agreed, I'm starting to hide the posts of people who only submit ridiculous conspiracy theories or "what if" scenarios. Given the gravity of the situation, I'd prefer to hear from professionals only.

[LizNeedsAVacation]

1 hour ago, kathy49 said:

I just don't understand why they could not have waited for this operation until all the pending tests were completed. It sounds like it was a matter of a short time.

I posted a link above but you can find it in many places (including CDC press conferences). When the evacuations from Wuhan took place they did not require tests. The CDC responded to questions to explain that the number of false negatives (due to testing too early, etc) was high and they felt it was not sensible to hold off on evacuations waiting for a test that wouldn’t really prove negativity. They felt it was better just to get people “home”. 

It would seem the logic in this case was the same “don’t wait around for a test we don’t feel is all that reliable. Just get them home”.

once the decision to evacuate and the logistics of getting the flights were settled it was likely deemed best to get people before the situation changed.

The Philippines was set to get all their crew that wanted to evacuate yesterday. And now it’s been delayed “awaiting Japan to clear them for departure”. 
 The people with tests in progress for the US getting the positive result after they were presumably in US custody but before the plane boarded threw a kink into the plan but I think it was a decision to get people to the US before anything changed to prevent it. There are still politics within the US to deal with but all the people that made it to the US no longer have any risk of a foreign govt’s policy intervening. The same cannot be said for anyone still in Japan. 

Edited February 24, 2020 by LizNeedsAVacation
Just fixed a weird typo/autocorrect

[kathy49]

5 minutes ago, LizNeedsAVacation said:

I posted a link about move but you can find it in many places (including CDC press conferences). When the evacuations from Wuhan took place they did not require tests. The CDC responded to questions to explain that the number of false negatives (due to testing too early, etc) was high and they felt it was not sensible to hold off on evacuations waiting for a test that wouldn’t really prove negativity. They felt it was better just to get people “home”. 

It would seem the logic in this case was the same “don’t wait around for a test we don’t feel is all that reliable. Just get them home”.

once the decision to evacuate and the logistics of getting the flights were settled it was likely deemed best to get people before the situation changed.

The Philippines was set to get all their crew that wanted to evacuate yesterday. And now it’s been delayed “awaiting Japan to clear them for departure”. 
 The people with tests in progress for the US getting the positive result after they were presumably in US custody but before the plane boarded threw a kink into the plan but I think it was a decision to get people to the US before anything changed to prevent it. There are still politics within the US to deal with but all the people that made it to the US no longer have any risk of a foreign govt’s policy intervening. The same cannot be said for anyone still in Japan. 

thank you..i have read many sources indicating these tests are not accurate..in fact experts in Omaha retested all of their people as the tests were not the best one.

[fragilek]

3 minutes ago, kathy49 said:

thank you..i have read many sources indicating these tests are not accurate..in fact experts in Omaha retested all of their people as the tests were not the best one.

Correct guidance is min 2 tests if there is reason to except that person is( high chance of being) infected. That's why the Japanese ( and others who chose not to go home )just being allowed to walk off the ship is so baffling.

[npcl]

1 hour ago, dog said:

Someone slipped up big time in my opinion. Was it Princess letting US citizens disembark without proof of negative lab test?  Was it Japanese gov’t who put he ship/ passengers under 14 day quarantine letting them disembark early without proof of negative results or was it US gov’t who took over at time of disembarking?  

So far the track record of those that completed quarantine, has been better than those that evacuated prior to the end of quarantine.

 

Imagine if the government's had done what some wanted and evacuated early in the first few days, when few had been tested and their certainly been positive cases among the evacuees.

 

I think it was a mistake to evacuate before quarantine ended. They should have had everyone complete the quarantine, then once cleared and released by the Japanese then evac them back to their countries. where if each country wanted to go through another quarantine, though the record from those released probably would not have been needed.

 

Certainly making the offer to those not testing positive, prior to all being tested was not a smart way to structure the evac on the part of the US. 

[voljeep]

last Princess update was 2/21 on their website 

 

Any real word on what is actually going on now on the ship with the remaining passengers (?) and crew ?  and any kind of timetable for when Princess can actually take over control of the Diamond again ?

[fragilek]

1 minute ago, npcl said:

So far the track record of those that completed quarantine, has been better than those that evacuated prior to the end of quarantine.

 

Imagine if the government's had done what some wanted and evacuated early in the first few days, when few had been tested and their certainly been positive cases among the evacuees.

 

I think it was a mistake to evacuate before quarantine ended. They should have had everyone complete the quarantine, then once cleared and released by the Japanese then evac them back to their countries. where if each country wanted to go through another quarantine, though the record from those released probably would not have been needed.

 

Certainly making the offer to those not testing positive, prior to all being tested was not a smart way to structure the evac on the part of the US. 

 Just to clarify at least 11 people who stayed on the ship for 14 or more days since the quarantine was introduced, who had negative tests before leaving the ship tested positive on re-entry (testing done within 24hrs of leaving the ship)- to their own countries.

[Farts]

14 minutes ago, Sam Ting said:

yeah right.  If the purpose was not to stop the spread on the ship why were they confined to their rooms?  Just for fun?  

The spread would have been much worst had they not quarantined them into their rooms. 691 out of ~3600 pax were infected. Those are insane numbers 

[npcl]

30 minutes ago, fragilek said:

 Just to clarify at least 11 people who stayed on the ship for 14 or more days since the quarantine was introduced, who had negative tests before leaving the ship tested positive on re-entry (testing done within 24hrs of leaving the ship)- to their own countries.

However, they did not finish on the ship and did not go through final testing prior to Japanese release. So who knows if they would have passed the final release tests.  Some of those that boarded the evac flights had been tested negative, but earlier in the quarantine period.  So they had negative tests but not recent negative tests. Unfortunately we do not have the data that shows dates at which they tested negative.

 

So far of those released only 1 has later tested positive and that one was similar to those that went on evac flights in that they tested negative earlier in the quarantine, and due to an administrative error was not retested prior to release, which they should have been.

[chengkp75]

2 hours ago, dog said:

Someone slipped up big time in my opinion. Was it Princess letting US citizens disembark without proof of negative lab test?  Was it Japanese gov’t who put he ship/ passengers under 14 day quarantine letting them disembark early without proof of negative results or was it US gov’t who took over at time of disembarking?  

Princess had no authority in any fashion as to who or when people were let off the ship.  That is a discussion between governments, Japan on allowing quarantine to be broken, and the various home nations on the methodology of transport within Japan and transport home.

[npcl]

2 hours ago, kathy49 said:

I just don't understand why they could not have waited for this operation until all the pending tests were completed. It sounds like it was a matter of a short time.

Who knows the mind set of those running the program.  Clearly pressure was being put on (internet/congressmen/etc) to bring the passengers home as soon as possible.

 

One of the reasons CDC opposed those with positive tests being on board, was, according to one article, because the CDC had assured them that there would not be anyone with the disease on the planes. If they were giving that guarantee then they should have required tests to be performed on everyone being evacuated and evacuated them only after the tests were complete, even if they had to do the flights at multiple times/days.

 

It is very easy to criticize decisions being made when one is not there and when one has no responsibility for the results of any decisions being made.  In a perfect world then one can have all perfect decisions.  Unfortunately in a situation like this one must make decisions, in a less than perfect world/situation.  Having to balance a number of influences in order to try and make the best decision that they could.

 

 

[fragilek]

7 minutes ago, npcl said:

However, they did not finish on the ship and did not go through final testing prior to Japanese release. So who knows if they would have passed the final release tests.  Some of those that boarded the evac flights had been tested negative, but earlier in the quarantine period.  So they had negative tests but not recent negative tests. Unfortunately we do not have the data that shows dates at which they tested negative.

 

So far of those released only 1 has later tested positive and that one was similar to those that went on evac flights in that they tested negative earlier in the quarantine, and due to an administrative error was not retested prior to release, which they should have been.

 what do you mean by  not finishing on the ship & final testing - they completed their 14 days (16 in UK case) & only  one round of testing was being undertaken, yes some may have been tested earlier, however, some may not we will have to wait and see once all this is over.  Some of those on the repatriation flights were in fact released but could not join the first round of flights because other family members in other cabins had not been released. These people were allowed to wait it out in hotels to join the later flights home (I was following some on twitter who had to do this the went walking on their 1st day off taking photos and out for dinner- They had to wait 2 days until other family got the all clear results to fly home on a 2nd repatriation flight).  I don't think you can call it either way until the analysis of who was tested when has been undertaken

[villauk]

1 minute ago, fragilek said:

 what do you mean by  not finishing on the ship & final testing - they completed their 14 days (16 in UK case) & only  one round of testing was being undertaken, yes some may have been tested earlier, however, some may not we will have to wait and see once all this is over.  Some of those on the repatriation flights were in fact released but could not join the first round of flights because other family members in other cabins had not been released. These people were allowed to wait it out in hotels to join the later flights home (I was following some on twitter who had to do this the went walking on their 1st day off taking photos and out for dinner- They had to wait 2 days until other family got the all clear results to fly home on a 2nd repatriation flight).  I don't think you can call it either way until the analysis of who was tested when has been undertaken

 

 

I agree, I was going to say that the U.K. pax completed more than the initial 14 days quarantine.

[npcl]

2 hours ago, Farts said:

Sad that another person died. 

 

I wonder what the mortality on the DP compared to the world average. It may give us a more accurate estimate of mortality rate. 

 

the report I referenced earlier indicates the passenger breakdowns by age group and if they were showing symptoms or not.  So one can take that data and compare it to Chinese data on fatality by age group. If you apply it to those that showing symptoms in each group you would have 5 in the 80+ year group, 2-3 in the 60-69 and 6-7 in the 70-79 age groups.  

 

With the only ones from the Diamond Princess being 3 in the 80+ range that would appear to be good news. 

 

However,  keep in mind the average time from first symptoms to death from a Chinese study was 14 days with a range of 6 to 41 days.  Shorter for 80+ patients, longer for younger patients. So we need to hope no more bad news for several weeks yet.

[npcl]

9 minutes ago, fragilek said:

 what do you mean by  not finishing on the ship & final testing - they completed their 14 days (16 in UK case) & only  one round of testing was being undertaken, yes some may have been tested earlier, however, some may not we will have to wait and see once all this is over.  Some of those on the repatriation flights were in fact released but could not join the first round of flights because other family members in other cabins had not been released. These people were allowed to wait it out in hotels to join the later flights home (I was following some on twitter who had to do this the went walking on their 1st day off taking photos and out for dinner- They had to wait 2 days until other family got the all clear results to fly home on a 2nd repatriation flight).  I don't think you can call it either way until the analysis of who was tested when has been undertaken

To complete the quarantine, they had to be tested at the end of the quarantine period.  Had that result be negative and then released by the Japanese from quarantine.  None of those evac went through that process.  The Japanese did not release any who had cabin mates that had developed illness during the quarantine period.  Any in that group should have had to go through another full quarantine period.

 

The  countries doing evacs at most required a negative test, but not necessarily a recent negative test.  Even those that got the results back on day 15, actually had their tests taken several days earlier. so that time needs to be considered. In the case of the 14 Americans their samples were actually taken 3 days before they got the results on the tarmac.