Will you cruise without a COVID vaccine?

[ECCruise]

1 minute ago, Tapi said:

And because no one knows for sure what’s going to happen, rampant speculation about what may or may not happen doesn’t accomplish much. All we can do is look at the facts and place them in their proper perspective which is the point that I’m trying to make. 

That is precisely what I am saying.  You are making assumptions based on "facts" that were out of date the hour you posted them.  I consider that speculation, frankly.

[Tapi]

12 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

That is precisely what I am saying.  You are making assumptions based on "facts" that were out of date the hour you posted them.  I consider that speculation, frankly.

I’m not making assumptions and I’m not speculating. I said: here are the current numbers, period. I’m not trying to downplay the situation like a lot of people do when they say “it’s just the flu”, or “this and that kills more people”, or “it’s hyped by the media”, or a litany of other things. All I’m saying is, here are the numbers. If we maintain a level of fear that’s commensurate with the threat that this disease presents, we can get through this. 

Edited May 5, 2020 by Tapi

[markeb]

I'm a little hesitant to post this as it is from the opinion page. The author is from Duke's business school. What I think he hits on in a few sentences is the complexity of actually producing any vaccine that comes to market. Generally speaking, something will have to not be made. He doesn't hit on it, but there are really only a handful of places that can easily switch from one production method to another, and whether they can scale up to this kind of demand is something I wouldn't hazard a guess on. Also, two of the candidates in the press are novel methods, and this would be the first real scale up I'm aware of of either of those methods.

 

Because this is from an opinion page, there are some editorial cartoons after the article...

 

https://amp-usatoday-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/3075349001

[phoenix_dream]

1 hour ago, ECCruise said:

Unless the following:

1)  Not one additional person dies from COVID-19 ever, or

2)  The population of the US increases or decreases significantly today, or

3)  Both 1) and 2)

Those stats are worthless beyond the second you wrote them.

Absolutely no one knows how this will end until it does.

Yes, no one knows for sure how this will end until (or if) it does.  We also don't know if we will die of a stroke today.  We also don't know if we will be killed in an auto accident on the way to the grocery store today. And on and on.   But IMHO these stats are far from worthless.  They help put things in perspective.  No one knows the future for anything, so all we can go on is what we know now and what science and history have taught us.

 

Of course, one death by this virus is one death too many - not minimizing that.  But the numbers certainly help put things in perspective.  When one listens to the news (of any type) all you hear is fear and horror.  You hear about the horrible deaths, and if they can find a very young person that has died they consider it news gold and it's talked about for days.  That's what leads, and those are the headlines that drive people to watch.   You rarely hear about anyone who has successfully recovered, unless perhaps they had a horrible experience and they want to emphasize that.  You rarely hear about how many people have had the virus with few if any symptoms (granted, we don't know the exact number of the latter but it is likely quite large).  You rarely hear that your chances of actually dying from this virus are in fact very, very low.  Yes, things could change for the worst -no one knows.  But we have to live with what we know now based on current facts and historical learning.  

 

I was around for the last two flu type pandemics in 1956 and 1968.  In fact, I had the virus in 1968 when I was a teenager.  Both of these were quite deadly as well (perhaps at the end of the day not as bad as this one, but bad).  There was nowhere NEAR as much fear mongering going on in the news outlets.  These days that's about all they talk about.  Admittedly teen-agers are not as tuned in as adults with these things, but I do not recall the massive terror going around like there is today.  I don't recall shelter in place orders, I don't recall places closing, I don't recall living in fear.  Maybe we were too blasé then, who knows.  But maybe now we are taking things a step too far, and without a doubt the news media is fueling fears beyond all reason.  Of course unfortunately too many people are even ignoring common sense (the large parties on the streets of Chicago this week-end are evidence of that!), but to calm ourselves down and make rational decisions we need to consider ALL the factors of risk, not just what the news stations are throwing at us 24/7.

[ipeeinthepool]

41 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Good news I think.  I am trying to get an antibody test too.  But if I test negative I would still be concerned.  The FDA is really clamping down this week on antibody tests because they have been rushed and are highly inconsistent.  The FDA has given companies 10 days to prove their tests are reliable or they have to pull them from the market.

 

You're probably correct, it was good news that I wasn't exposed.   There's no telling what might have happened.  There are a number of antibody tests but I think all of them from larger companies are better than 99% accurate on positive and negative predictions.  Check out the test accuracy before you sign up.

[Ride-The-Waves]

17 minutes ago, markeb said:

I'm a little hesitant to post this as it is from the opinion page. The author is from Duke's business school. What I think he hits on in a few sentences is the complexity of actually producing any vaccine that comes to market. Generally speaking, something will have to not be made. He doesn't hit on it, but there are really only a handful of places that can easily switch from one production method to another, and whether they can scale up to this kind of demand is something I wouldn't hazard a guess on. Also, two of the candidates in the press are novel methods, and this would be the first real scale up I'm aware of of either of those methods.

 

Because this is from an opinion page, there are some editorial cartoons after the article...

 

https://amp-usatoday-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/3075349001

Tsk!  Tsk!  Sharing facts!

 

Similar in the NY Times this morning discussing that Dr Blix has suggested that earliest a vaccine could be developed - the formula on paper - is the end of this year.  Thea article also pointed out that the mumps vaccines took four years to develop and deploy.  And then we have to hope, and this not necessarily the case, that the virus does not mutate seasonally.  Additionally, doctors this morning are reporting that a "mysterious" illness associated with COVID-19 is affecting children ages 2-15 in the US and Europe, and showing as a toxic shock similar to Kawasaki disease.  This is far from over despite Carnival's announcement they will restart cruising in August.... NCL's announcement this morning that they are in desperate shape and may have to shut permanently is closer to reality.

Edited May 5, 2020 by Ride-The-Waves

[TeeRick]

phoenix_dream, To your point----There was a study just recently published by the Yale School of Public Health.  Sponsored by the Washington Post.  (you might need to access it in incognito mode or go to the VOX link instead)

 

In March 01 to April 04, 2020 there were a large number of excess deaths (15,400) in the US from non-COVID related causes compared to the data from the same time frame in previous years.  Their conclusion is that this large excess number of deaths occurred since people could not access other types of needed medical procedures or were afraid to seek other types of medical attention.  

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/investigations/2020/05/02/excess-deaths-during-covid-19/?arc404=true

 

 https://www.vox.com/coronavirus-covid19/2020/4/29/21240393/voxcare-us-coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-how-many-yale

[TeeRick]

31 minutes ago, markeb said:

I'm a little hesitant to post this as it is from the opinion page. The author is from Duke's business school. What I think he hits on in a few sentences is the complexity of actually producing any vaccine that comes to market. Generally speaking, something will have to not be made. He doesn't hit on it, but there are really only a handful of places that can easily switch from one production method to another, and whether they can scale up to this kind of demand is something I wouldn't hazard a guess on. Also, two of the candidates in the press are novel methods, and this would be the first real scale up I'm aware of of either of those methods.

 

Because this is from an opinion page, there are some editorial cartoons after the article...

 

https://amp-usatoday-com.cdn.ampproject.org/c/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/3075349001

This article makes a number of key points.  Thank You.

[dandee2]

This is worth reading: 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html?smid=fb-share&fbclid=IwAR000omxu3wh_mW3GhKfmod_X2kEMXYc2so85sN0ukqvC0QZ1rVyl07t9ic

Lets say there is a vaccine, do we realize it will take years to immunized everybody? At 1 million doses per day it will take a year (only for the US). And that doesn't take into account the other vaccines people are getting already. I would hope we find anti-viral medication.

[dandee2]

20 minutes ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Tsk!  Tsk!  Sharing facts!

 

Similar in the NY Times this morning discussing that Dr Blix has suggested that earliest a vaccine could be developed - the formula on paper - is the end of this year.  Thea article also pointed out that the mumps vaccines took four years to develop and deploy.  And then we have to hope, and this not necessarily the case, that the virus does not mutate seasonally.  Additionally, doctors this morning are reporting that a "mysterious" illness associated with COVID-19 is affecting children ages 2-15 in the US and Europe, and showing as a toxic shock similar to Kawasaki disease.  This is far from over despite Carnival's announcement they will restart cruising in August.... NCL's announcement this morning that they are in desperate shape and may have to shut permanently is closer to reality.

Agree with you. If a vaccine is developped, health care worker, first responders, military will get it first. Travelling public last.
Best case scenario: Anti-viral medication to treat symptom and easier to provide for the general public.

[fizzy1]

YES!  I am ready as soon the the ships are [emoji846]. I can’t wait to have a martini at the martini bar, a glass of wine on the balcony and dinner in Murano. 
 
 

Ditto. Hopefully we will be in the sunny Caribbean in Dec


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[cruise kitty]

Well, I just booked our precruise hotel for next May's Adriatic....  refundable of course :)

 

At this point all we can do is to continue to self quarantine at home (going on 8 weeks Thursday)   We plan to continue to self isolate as much as possible over the next few months & carefully watch the morbidity numbers (how awful)  & hope that this was not just the herald wave...

 

A widely available vaccine would definitely make me feel safer,  but I'm not hanging my hat on it happening for sure by then.  

 

I will continue to plan & hope for next May & if we have to move our booking to 2022 so be it. 

[ERParadise]

22 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

There are opinions, and then there are facts.  The facts are that the Covid-19 virus is more deadly than the flu.  Science is not an opinion.  Whether one feels it is worth the risk to sail anyway is an opinion.

 

Here are some facts from people who died on cruise ships this year.

• Diamond Princess 2666 passengers plus 1045 crew and 14 died
• Grand Princess 2422 passengers plus 1111 crew and 7 died
• Ruby Princess 2700 passengers plus 1100 crew and 21 died

That is 11044 people and 42 dead.  Most of the passengers were over 70.  The cumulative death rate was 0.38%

 

That is a very low death rate compared to the exaggérated death rate published in the media, but I would guess on these same ships in 2019 less than 3 to 5 people died on the same voyages.  COVID is highly contageous at a much higher rate than the normal flu.  

 

How many of you are booking your next cruise on Carnival this Summer?🤥

 

More info at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_pandemic_on_cruise_ships

Edited May 5, 2020 by ERParadise

[Laurab23]

6 hours ago, Pegasusridge said:

As things stand now, we won’t cruise. We are fortunate enough to live in a rural area and staying at home has not been a real issue for us. Husband home on paid leave, but I’ve lost a fair amount of income as I am a internationally licensed horse show official and our industry is shut down for the foreseeable future. Disappointed but content wait a bit and see how this plays out. 

So sorry that you have lost your income but what a cool job to have!

[MISTER 67]

4 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

Yes, no one knows for sure how this will end until (or if) it does.  We also don't know if we will die of a stroke today.  We also don't know if we will be killed in an auto accident on the way to the grocery store today. And on and on.   But IMHO these stats are far from worthless.  They help put things in perspective.  No one knows the future for anything, so all we can go on is what we know now and what science and history have taught us.

 

Of course, one death by this virus is one death too many - not minimizing that.  But the numbers certainly help put things in perspective.  When one listens to the news (of any type) all you hear is fear and horror.  You hear about the horrible deaths, and if they can find a very young person that has died they consider it news gold and it's talked about for days.  That's what leads, and those are the headlines that drive people to watch.   You rarely hear about anyone who has successfully recovered, unless perhaps they had a horrible experience and they want to emphasize that.  You rarely hear about how many people have had the virus with few if any symptoms (granted, we don't know the exact number of the latter but it is likely quite large).  You rarely hear that your chances of actually dying from this virus are in fact very, very low.  Yes, things could change for the worst -no one knows.  But we have to live with what we know now based on current facts and historical learning.  

 

I was around for the last two flu type pandemics in 1956 and 1968.  In fact, I had the virus in 1968 when I was a teenager.  Both of these were quite deadly as well (perhaps at the end of the day not as bad as this one, but bad).  There was nowhere NEAR as much fear mongering going on in the news outlets.  These days that's about all they talk about.  Admittedly teen-agers are not as tuned in as adults with these things, but I do not recall the massive terror going around like there is today.  I don't recall shelter in place orders, I don't recall places closing, I don't recall living in fear.  Maybe we were too blasé then, who knows.  But maybe now we are taking things a step too far, and without a doubt the news media is fueling fears beyond all reason.  Of course unfortunately too many people are even ignoring common sense (the large parties on the streets of Chicago this week-end are evidence of that!), but to calm ourselves down and make rational decisions we need to consider ALL the factors of risk, not just what the news stations are throwing at us 24/7.

I also had the 1968 Hong Kong flu, oddly enough 5 days after I returned from a year in Vietnam. The only pandemic I remember from the 50s was Polio.

Edited May 5, 2020 by MISTER 67

[UnorigionalName]

4 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

Yes, no one knows for sure how this will end until (or if) it does.  We also don't know if we will die of a stroke today.  We also don't know if we will be killed in an auto accident on the way to the grocery store today. And on and on.   But IMHO these stats are far from worthless.  They help put things in perspective.  No one knows the future for anything, so all we can go on is what we know now and what science and history have taught us.

 

Of course, one death by this virus is one death too many - not minimizing that.  But the numbers certainly help put things in perspective.  When one listens to the news (of any type) all you hear is fear and horror.  You hear about the horrible deaths, and if they can find a very young person that has died they consider it news gold and it's talked about for days.  That's what leads, and those are the headlines that drive people to watch.   You rarely hear about anyone who has successfully recovered, unless perhaps they had a horrible experience and they want to emphasize that.  You rarely hear about how many people have had the virus with few if any symptoms (granted, we don't know the exact number of the latter but it is likely quite large).  You rarely hear that your chances of actually dying from this virus are in fact very, very low.  Yes, things could change for the worst -no one knows.  But we have to live with what we know now based on current facts and historical learning.  

 

I was around for the last two flu type pandemics in 1956 and 1968.  In fact, I had the virus in 1968 when I was a teenager.  Both of these were quite deadly as well (perhaps at the end of the day not as bad as this one, but bad).  There was nowhere NEAR as much fear mongering going on in the news outlets.  These days that's about all they talk about.  Admittedly teen-agers are not as tuned in as adults with these things, but I do not recall the massive terror going around like there is today.  I don't recall shelter in place orders, I don't recall places closing, I don't recall living in fear.  Maybe we were too blasé then, who knows.  But maybe now we are taking things a step too far, and without a doubt the news media is fueling fears beyond all reason.  Of course unfortunately too many people are even ignoring common sense (the large parties on the streets of Chicago this week-end are evidence of that!), but to calm ourselves down and make rational decisions we need to consider ALL the factors of risk, not just what the news stations are throwing at us 24/7.

 

I'm so tired at these posts.  There is like no hope in arguing science and data.  You just believe what you want to believe.  I can't believe the evidence shows deniers don't even change their minds when they themselves or a close loved one contracts and/or dies from COVID.  I really don't understand this me-only, damn the science and experts mentality.  Where does it come from?

 

I have honestly lost hope.  The sacrifice of millions of my countrymen, where the burden of the lockdown has been borne mostly by those most supportive of the lockdown (younger, urban, minority) is at risk because of a handful of people don't care about society as a whole and can only look at their own desire and pleasure.  What happened to being a good neighbor.  This is NOT neighborly love.  The lockdowns that were supposed to be able to be relaxed by now can't be relaxed because people were so bad at this that the cases are still going up, or dropping too slowly.

[Ride-The-Waves]

Los Alamos National Lab in conjunction with scientists at Duke and Sheffield Universities have identified 14 strains of coronavirus.  The deadliest being the strain that hit New York coming over from Italy, and which is dealer than the originally Wuhan identified strain.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/health-news/a-mutant-coronavirus-has-emerged-even-more-contagious-than-the-original-study-says/ar-BB13CHNP

 

This upends the idea that the virus is stable and doesn't mutate.  Designing and testing a viable vaccine becomes problematic if COVID-19 is unstable.  Might was well call it "Andromeda Strain."

[chuckwagontrail1]

YES, YES, YES.

 

I am 61 and my wife is 62.  We both love cruising and can't wait to get back on the ship and visit the beautiful Caribbean.  We are healthy, work out six days a week including lots of cardio.   We do not take and never have taken prescription medicine.  In 2018 at the age of 59 I had my best blood work, physical, etc, and was feeling on top of my game.   A month later I was horrified to discover that I had squamous cell carcinoma tonsil cancer that had spread to three lymph nodes in my neck.  Six weeks of 30 radiation treatments and not able to eat solid food for three months the doctors say that I have made a full recovery.

 

My point is that I had cancer growing in my mouth for 5 months and never knew it.  After my recovery I told my wife that I want to take a vacation every month for the rest of my life and enjoy what time I have left.

 

Can I be killed in an automobile accident driving to the grocery store today?  Can I be killed flying to my next vacation?  Can I be killed if I am exposed to pneumonia or the flu?  Can I be killed from the corona-virus?  

 

Luckily I am still alive and will keep on living and enjoying life as long as I can.   Please retire if you are able , enjoy what precious time you have because you never know what tomorrow brings.

 

 

 

God Bless ..

 

 

 

  

[Vagabond Knight]

On 5/4/2020 at 8:57 AM, TeeRick said:

 I wish we could take an antibody test in our state.  I would love to know one way or another.

 

Don't put too much faith in the antibody tests at this point.  A close family member is an infection prevention data analyst and she says the those tests are turning out to be pretty unreliable.

[markeb]

1 hour ago, Ride-The-Waves said:

Los Alamos National Lab in conjunction with scientists at Duke and Sheffield Universities have identified 14 strains of coronavirus.  The deadliest being the strain that hit New York coming over from Italy, and which is dealer than the originally Wuhan identified strain.

 

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/health-news/a-mutant-coronavirus-has-emerged-even-more-contagious-than-the-original-study-says/ar-BB13CHNP

 

This upends the idea that the virus is stable and doesn't mutate.  Designing and testing a viable vaccine becomes problematic if COVID-19 is unstable.  Might was well call it "Andromeda Strain."

 

Just scanned the entire actual paper. Some good news, in that the strain discussed is actually not associated with higher hospitalization or death in the one area where that information was available.

 

Having said that, the rest of the results are incredibly disheartening. There's really one mutation of interest (Don't see the 14 strains? There were apparently 14 mutations of interest, but those don't necessarily create strains.) The specific mutation is associated with higher transmissibility, and potentially with antibody dependent enhancement, which could mean that either people on the East Coast (and most of the rest of the world) subsequently infected with the original variation (which was dominant on the West Coast) could be at much higher risk of at least infection, not protection. Less data that there disease would be more severe.

 

If this study holds out, you can add two years or more to the most optimistic vaccine timelines...

[markeb]

21 minutes ago, SunsetPoint said:

 

Don't put too much faith in the antibody tests at this point.  A close family member is an infection prevention data analyst and she says the those tests are turning out to be pretty unreliable.

 

FDA guidance issued  today is that they are NOT diagnostic, and should be followed up with a diagnostic test (generally a high complexity lab-based test if I'm reading the rules correctly) and that manufacturers must include labeling that of their (significant) limitations. Significant discussion of the lack of evidence of the tests' actual significance in that guidance.

[ERParadise]

Be careful about a broad stroke to quickly dismiss all antibody tests.

 

The leading manufacturers have had their tests reviewed by 3rd parties with over 99% accuracy.

 

I have read several of the diagnostic reports and there are a number of small CO’s using tests that have reliability down to 85%.
 

Some in government feel threatened by antibody testing as they don’t have an answer to increasing numbers of people who show evidence they already have had the virus.

 

These antibody tests are being questioned over a lack of reliability and also the premise that we don’t know if a person can get the virus more than once.  While it is possible people can get the virus more than once the more likely answer is that some people carry the virus for a long period of time with several spikes in symptoms.

 

Regardless, very soon there will be hundreds of thousands of people who have had the virus and scientists and medical professionals will be able to definitively say if people have gotten the virus twice.

 

For now my view is that past similar viruses were not caught twice, but there were people who carried the virus for several months.

 

Some government leaders fear an inability to stop people from an active lifestyle and so their first defense is to brush off the antibody test results as inaccurate and/or saying there is no evidence you can get the virus a 2nd time.

 

When this is cleared up (by monitoring people who have had the virus to see if any have gotten it a 2nd time) there likely will be large numbers of younger people purposely exposing themselves so they can put this issue behind them.

 

That is something that really scares the government officials who are attempting to keep a lid on the virus by changing all society rules.

[markeb]

Data?

 

Both positive and negative predictive value are questioned in the interim guidance today. There is no such thing as reliability  or accuracy in a diagnostic test. Sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value matter. If the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 (infection rate, not actual disease) is higher than originally believed, then the positive predictive value will be higher. Ironically, you need a good test for prevalence to make that estimate,without cross-reactivity to other common coronaviruses. The rapid LFI's that everyone is using are probably the most suspect. High complexity testing in a laboratory that actually gives a quantitative titer would have much more meaning.

 

I think that most people in government would like to believe that a significant percentage of the population have been exposed with minimal disease and are immune. Frankly, absent a second wave, or significant testing, probably in an animal model that hasn't been fully developed, we won't know that. And if the second wave varies significantly from the first wave, which now has to be questioned, it may not matter.

 

 

[OnTheJourney]

8 hours ago, dandee2 said:

This is worth reading: 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/30/opinion/coronavirus-covid-vaccine.html?smid=fb-share&fbclid=IwAR000omxu3wh_mW3GhKfmod_X2kEMXYc2so85sN0ukqvC0QZ1rVyl07t9ic

Lets say there is a vaccine, do we realize it will take years to immunized everybody? At 1 million doses per day it will take a year (only for the US). And that doesn't take into account the other vaccines people are getting already. I would hope we find anti-viral medication.

 

So I say we don't put our lives 'on hold', i.e. not cruising or other modes of travel, for some uncertain and indefinite period of time...waiting for....what?  A panacea that may never arrive? 

 

I have to face the fact that I have fewer years ahead of me than behind, so while I tussle over this whole thing like many of us, I'm starting to lean more in the direction implied in the famous quote:  “Twenty years (or less!!) from now you will be more disappointed by the things that you didn't do than by the ones you did do. So throw off the bowlines. Sail away from the safe harbor. Catch the trade winds in your sails."   🤔

Edited May 5, 2020 by OnTheJourney

[lawgirl]

We have a cruise scheduled for Nov...it’s 2 weeks long.  We are in our 50s and healthy, but I think we are going to cancel...mostly to wait and see how cruising is impacted.  
 

We were on a ship after the CDC came on for a deep clean following a norovirus outbreak. We left port 6 or 8 hours late because we couldn’t board until a deep clean was done.   It was fine, but lots of inconveniences... no menus, daily planners, etc. some activities cancelled....No salt/pepper, etc.  long lines at buffet because no self-serve.  Nothing in the cabin (no hair dryers, mirrors, robes, etc).... did it ruin our trip? No. But would it be better not to wait 20 minutes for a glass of tea that is usually self serve? Yes. Add to that temperature checks to get on and off the ship and even a slight chance of being quarantined if a few folks get sick, and I think I would rather wait. 
 

We did already postpone a May 2021 Galápagos/Machu Picchu trip.  It is just too expensive of a trip to chance it not being as planned... or even to have to wear a mask on all those long flights to Ecuador, then Islands, then back to Ecuador, then Peru, then home. Hopefully all will be normal by next May, but with the extremely high cost, and hotels, tours, locations, experiences being in flux, we couldn’t risk a trip of a lifetime....

 

whatever you decide, be safe and enjoy!