Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[markeb]

50 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Thank you for your response.  Would you say that it will be unsafe to ride in an airplane or take a cruise until 2022 then?

Hoping to see Alaska one way or another next June.

 

Honestly, that's almost impossible to say right now. If one of the vaccine candidates proves extremely effective at protecting individuals from disease, then "safe" becomes a question of risk for the individual, and availability of the vaccine for the general public.

 

Keep in mind one of the primary goals of a vaccine program is to eliminate as much transmission as possible. That's not going to happen until one or more vaccines are in wide use in the general public. There are very good reasons not to rush into that, such as understanding the safety profiles of the different vaccines in different sub-populations, and understanding what could be different efficacies in different sub-populations (or different dosing requirements, etc.).

 

June could be an eternity from now with a lot of information, or essentially the day after tomorrow...

[npcl]

4 hours ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Thank you for your response.  Would you say that it will be unsafe to ride in an airplane or take a cruise until 2022 then?

Hoping to see Alaska one way or another next June.

The way look at it is the virus will dictate things.

 

If we get a vaccine early next year (i mistyped in my previous answer I meant to say that if the trials are successful I have no doubt that it will be available to the public in the US well before the end of 2021).  Depending upon how many people take it, depending upon its efficacy, and depending upon how will the public continues to wear masks, performs social distancing, avoid crowds and tight spaces, and practices good hygiene all will impact how fast the number of cases drop.  It is really the number of new cases that will determine when it will be safe to fly and cruise.

 

That said it will be the choice of each individual to determine what they consider to be safe. 

 

Edited August 15, 2020 by npcl

[ipeeinthepool]

11 hours ago, Crazy planning mom said:

Thank you for your response.  Would you say that it will be unsafe to ride in an airplane or take a cruise until 2022 then?

Hoping to see Alaska one way or another next June.

 

From a personal perspective, I will feel safe on an airplane or cruise ship about a month after I get the vaccine.  I may not be able to cruise at that time but I will be able to fly anywhere in the US.

[TeeRick]

2 hours ago, ipeeinthepool said:

 

From a personal perspective, I will feel safe on an airplane or cruise ship about a month after I get the vaccine.  I may not be able to cruise at that time but I will be able to fly anywhere in the US.

Maybe a couple of weeks after the second dose of the vaccine is more likely the way to go.

[zeberdee]

Two days ago on the UK BBC news, the head of the UK covid vaccine task force ( Kate Bingham) said they didn't think a vaccine if found against covid would give immunity, but would lessen the severity of illness if infected.
 

I think its still too early to believe that an effective vaccine will be found soon.

Everyone has their own thoughts and opinion about vaccines, this is just a different slant on the hope that some sort of vaccine will be found.

 

[ighten]

10 minutes ago, zeberdee said:

Two days ago on the UK BBC news, the head of the UK covid vaccine task force ( Kate Bingham) said they didn't think a vaccine if found against covid would give immunity, but would lessen the severity of illness if infected.
 

I think its still too early to believe that an effective vaccine will be found soon.

Everyone has their own thoughts and opinion about vaccines, this is just a different slant on the hope that some sort of vaccine will be found.

 

 

TBF even the WHO have said the vaccine is not the silver bullet people seem to think...  However I think we have reached a point where the govts are going to bite a bullet and say - thats it here's a vaccine (not sure if it does anything)   back to normality/new normality - but its all at your risk now..

Edited August 15, 2020 by ighten

[Ken the cruiser]

Just read this article about obesity with regards to the general effectiveness of vaccines. Sure glad I've lost 25+ lbs since our last cruise in March and have slimmed down into the "overweight" range. 

 

https://www.pennlive.com/coronavirus/2020/08/americas-obesity-epidemic-threatens-effectiveness-of-any-covid-19-vaccine.html

[phoenix_dream]

On 8/12/2020 at 9:39 PM, cangelmd said:

I remember reading somewhere, “early” in this process, like May, LOL, that there was some talk about actually using multi dose vials to save on the special glass. Do you think there will be an issue with syringe material or supply?

 

My biggest worry still is the number of takers for the vaccine, as much or more than the technological issues

Honestly, my biggest worry is the lack of the number of takers for the vaccine - at least in the first year or two.  The numbers of people who say they will not take the vaccine are very worrisome.  I think the virus itself is way more risky than a new vaccine.  Many others feel the opposite.  Too soon to tell who is right.

[K.T.B.]

4 hours ago, phoenix_dream said:

Honestly, my biggest worry is the lack of the number of takers for the vaccine - at least in the first year or two.  The numbers of people who say they will not take the vaccine are very worrisome.  I think the virus itself is way more risky than a new vaccine.  Many others feel the opposite.  Too soon to tell who is right.

 

Well, that's one way to cull the herd I suppose.... 

 

(And yes, it's a joke.)

[ipeeinthepool]

19 hours ago, ighten said:

 

TBF even the WHO have said the vaccine is not the silver bullet people seem to think...  However I think we have reached a point where the govts are going to bite a bullet and say - thats it here's a vaccine (not sure if it does anything)   back to normality/new normality - but its all at your risk now..

 

Even if a vaccine isn't as effective as everyone hopes, isn't this approach a better solution than the current state of suspended life throughout the world?

[Vagabond Knight]

Unfortunately, an effective vaccine may NEVER be available.  There is still no vaccine for AIDS after all these years or the human coronavirus known as the common cold, and they're now finding that the antibodies that develop when someone gets Covid-19 only last for approximately two to three months and then the person is susceptible to becoming reinfected with Covid-19 again. Two to three months of  immunity does not seem like it bodes well for a long-term vaccine. 

[Ken the cruiser]

1 hour ago, SunsetPoint said:

Unfortunately, an effective vaccine may NEVER be available.  There is still no vaccine for AIDS after all these years or the human coronavirus known as the common cold, and they're now finding that the antibodies that develop when someone gets Covid-19 only last for approximately two to three months and then the person is susceptible to becoming reinfected with Covid-19 again. Two to three months of  immunity does not seem like it bodes well for a long-term vaccine. 

I'm guessing there will eventually be an annual vaccine which may or may not be included in the annual flu vaccine. But then that's just my uninformed opinion.

[BP99]

1 hour ago, SunsetPoint said:

Unfortunately, an effective vaccine may NEVER be available.  There is still no vaccine for AIDS after all these years or the human coronavirus known as the common cold, and they're now finding that the antibodies that develop when someone gets Covid-19 only last for approximately two to three months and then the person is susceptible to becoming reinfected with Covid-19 again. Two to three months of  immunity does not seem like it bodes well for a long-term vaccine. 

Hi,

Although I agree with "some" of your comments I would like to add some

friendly comments:

1) Although the antibodies decrease with time (common with many vaccines)

we get memory T and B cells that last many years (decades for a few vaccines).

Upon exposure (reinfection) these cells kick in more rapidly making new 

antibodies and cellular immunity. So you do not come down with full blown 

symptoms. Most elderly people get FEWER colds and not as many severe

effects because of these memory cells AND cross reactivity with other 

types of cold/flu viruses. However this virus is different. However, there is

crossreactivity to 3 other cold viruses which MAY explain why some are 

immune/asymptomatic?. Young kids get MANY colds because they haven't

been exposed to to 100's of cold virus strains (4 major types).

2) Even if the vaccine is not GREAT it may be good enough to prevent

death. This dying part is what concerns MOST people. Having a runny

nose/cough is usually okay with most. I mentioned this on a CC post several

months ago and MANY scientists also recently mentioned that a not so

great vaccine MAY prevent death and be good enough.

3) Since nearly all cold viruses did NOT kill many people in the past it

was uneconomical for vaccine companies to spend hundreds of millions

(for research/approval) of a common cold vaccine. Also multiply the cost

a hundred times (for the hundred strains). 

4) The AIDS virus is a different virus having different biological effects.

It is now well treated with drugs and there are still vaccines that are

being developed. It is not air bourn. 

5) Some individuals immune system goes into hyper overdrive. Called

a cytokine storm (hormones of the immune system) which causes

MAJOR effects and death

Bottom line: Don't rule out Covid vaccines yet!

[BP99]

Forgot to add:

All antibodies decrease in the blood with time. They have a half life.

Early immune antibodies (IgM) have a half life of 5-6 days while latter 

antibodies (IgG) have a half life of 21 days.

This is required because:

These are HUGE multi chain glycoproteins. Eg. IgG is 4 chains 10nm

and the heavy chain has 450 amino acids.

If we had high levels of antibodies to every pathogen/vaccine we

encountered in life our blood would be like honey/molasses/engine oil.

Not great for blood flow (clogging arteries)!

[npcl]

3 hours ago, SunsetPoint said:

Unfortunately, an effective vaccine may NEVER be available.  There is still no vaccine for AIDS after all these years or the human coronavirus known as the common cold, and they're now finding that the antibodies that develop when someone gets Covid-19 only last for approximately two to three months and then the person is susceptible to becoming reinfected with Covid-19 again. Two to three months of  immunity does not seem like it bodes well for a long-term vaccine. 

It might just mean a booster shot every 3 month.

[npcl]

1 hour ago, BP99 said:

Hi,

Although I agree with "some" of your comments I would like to add some

friendly comments:

1) Although the antibodies decrease with time (common with many vaccines)

we get memory T and B cells that last many years (decades for a few vaccines).

Upon exposure (reinfection) these cells kick in more rapidly making new 

antibodies and cellular immunity. So you do not come down with full blown 

symptoms. Most elderly people get FEWER colds and not as many severe

effects because of these memory cells AND cross reactivity with other 

types of cold/flu viruses. However this virus is different. However, there is

crossreactivity to 3 other cold viruses which MAY explain why some are 

immune/asymptomatic?. Young kids get MANY colds because they haven't

been exposed to to 100's of cold virus strains (4 major types).

2) Even if the vaccine is not GREAT it may be good enough to prevent

death. This dying part is what concerns MOST people. Having a runny

nose/cough is usually okay with most. I mentioned this on a CC post several

months ago and MANY scientists also recently mentioned that a not so

great vaccine MAY prevent death and be good enough.

3) Since nearly all cold viruses did NOT kill many people in the past it

was uneconomical for vaccine companies to spend hundreds of millions

(for research/approval) of a common cold vaccine. Also multiply the cost

a hundred times (for the hundred strains). 

4) The AIDS virus is a different virus having different biological effects.

It is now well treated with drugs and there are still vaccines that are

being developed. It is not air bourn. 

5) Some individuals immune system goes into hyper overdrive. Called

a cytokine storm (hormones of the immune system) which causes

MAJOR effects and death

Bottom line: Don't rule out Covid vaccines yet!

Personally I am more concerned about the impacts on other organs such as the cardio and neurological impacts that the mortality percentage.  I would consider a vaccine to be successful if it prevents those impacts, as well as reduces mortality.

[TeeRick]

On 8/15/2020 at 9:15 AM, zeberdee said:

Two days ago on the UK BBC news, the head of the UK covid vaccine task force ( Kate Bingham) said they didn't think a vaccine if found against covid would give immunity, but would lessen the severity of illness if infected.
 

I think its still too early to believe that an effective vaccine will be found soon.

Everyone has their own thoughts and opinion about vaccines, this is just a different slant on the hope that some sort of vaccine will be found.

 

Really not sure about this.  The whole point of a preventative vaccine is to give immunity to a population and prevent infection.

[Nancycat]

It is wishful thinking that we will have a vaccine before the new year. No matter what anyone says a phased trial takes a certain amount of time, which can not be rushed.
Personally, I would rather wait a little longer than rush either a dangerous or less than effective vaccine.

 Also, the logistics of distribution, it is going to take a massive amount of manpower to give millions of shots.

I am a nurse, and have done dozens of flu clinics, we had a team of 4 nurses, and could usually do 200-300 in a 6-8 hr time frame. 

[zeberdee]

2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Really not sure about this.  The whole point of a preventative vaccine is to give immunity to a population and prevent infection.

Well she is head of the UK vaccine task force. You can also read her interview with the UK Financial Times dated the 29th July.

[markeb]

13 minutes ago, zeberdee said:

Well she is head of the UK vaccine task force. You can also read her interview with the UK Financial Times dated the 29th July.

 

What she said (can't copy and paste from the page) is that she doesn't expect lifelong immunity and that it's more realistic to expect a vaccine with a year's immunity that mitigates the symptoms of the virus.

 

Those are immune responses. And agree with most expectations I've seen.

[Fouremco]

5 minutes ago, markeb said:

 

What she said (can't copy and paste from the page) is that she doesn't expect lifelong immunity and that it's more realistic to expect a vaccine with a year's immunity that mitigates the symptoms of the virus.

 

Those are immune responses. And agree with most expectations I've seen.

Agreed. The full article can be found here (https://www.ft.com/content/f63f9e25-a291-4871-9d4b-2fcf93c4969e), but the salient paragraphs below clearly indicate that she never stated they "didn't think a vaccine if found against covid would give immunity."
 

 

[UnorigionalName]

On 8/16/2020 at 8:57 AM, SunsetPoint said:

Unfortunately, an effective vaccine may NEVER be available.  There is still no vaccine for AIDS...

 

Think of it this way: Diseases our immune system CAN clear by themselves -> easy to make a vaccine.  Diseases our immune system CAN'T clear by themselves -> more challenging to impossible to make a vaccine.  So HIV is a bad analogy for COVID.

 

1 hour ago, markeb said:

 

What she said (can't copy and paste from the page) is that she doesn't expect lifelong immunity and that it's more realistic to expect a vaccine with a year's immunity that mitigates the symptoms of the virus.

 

Those are immune responses. And agree with most expectations I've seen.

 

I feel like one thing these predictions fail to take into account is the mechanism of action of these novel vaccines.  I would agree if it was a normal conjugated vaccine, that these predictions are probably accurate.

 

For me the question is if the RNA transfected/infected cells eventually die or get cleared.  If they don't, potentially the immunity could be very long lasting.

 

In any event, I think it's pretty clear at least some vaccine in some form that will decrease morbidity and mortality will come out and be effective.  Everyone hoping vaccine fails are going to be disappointed.  

[npcl]

5 hours ago, TeeRick said:

Really not sure about this.  The whole point of a preventative vaccine is to give immunity to a population and prevent infection.

Makes me wonder if there was more to the Oxford primate test than we have heard.  The one where they challenge tested primates and found the virus in the nasal passages, but symptoms did not developed.

 

Personally I do not care for challenge trials in primates or people unless there is absolutely no resort, in which case challenge trial the research team.

[BP99]

37 minutes ago, UnorigionalName said:

 

Think of it this way: Diseases our immune system CAN clear by themselves -> easy to make a vaccine.  Diseases our immune system CAN'T clear by themselves -> more challenging to impossible to make a vaccine.  So HIV is a bad analogy for COVID.

 

 

I feel like one thing these predictions fail to take into account is the mechanism of action of these novel vaccines.  I would agree if it was a normal conjugated vaccine, that these predictions are probably accurate.

 

For me the question is if the RNA transfected/infected cells eventually die or get cleared.  If they don't, potentially the immunity could be very long lasting.

 

In any event, I think it's pretty clear at least some vaccine in some form that will decrease morbidity and mortality will come out and be effective.  Everyone hoping vaccine fails are going to be disappointed.  

Hi,

TOTALLY agree with your comments!

In addition to infected individuals that immunologically clear the infection

it was shown that convalecent serum from these individuals can be

successfully used to treat those who have severe symptoms.

This would clearly indicate that a vaccine should work! Also, very early

work showed that covid vaccines can prevent severe illness in monkeys.

However it turns out that monkeys do not die from covid infections and

not a perfect model to show effectiveness. As for RNA vaccines, I've

never read anything on cell mediated killing of these RNA infected cells.

Most likely they should present antigen like virally infected cells and be

cleared by cytotoxic T cells (CTL).

monkeys were a poor model since the

 

[npcl]

2 hours ago, Fouremco said:

Agreed. The full article can be found here (https://www.ft.com/content/f63f9e25-a291-4871-9d4b-2fcf93c4969e), but the salient paragraphs below clearly indicate that she never stated they "didn't think a vaccine if found against covid would give immunity."
 

 

To me a year immunity in a high percentage of those vaccinated would be an outstanding win.  Mitigating symptoms not so much unless it takes care of the cardio, kidney and neurological impacts as well as mortality.

 

My read of the statement is she is setting expectations about what might be considered to be a success, not really forecasting what she thinks it might be.

Edited August 17, 2020 by npcl