Mandate the vaccine and establish a realistic start date

[Biker19]

24 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

 

I cant wait until we start seeing obvious signs the vaccine is kicking in.

Look at the data from Israel and UAE which have the highest vaccination rates. But, as has been mentioned, not sure you can tell the drop is all due to vaccinations. 

[Ocean Boy]

30 minutes ago, AdoraBelle said:

 

You mean "the people who gathered and traveled for Christmas's Christmas surge"?

Yeah, that one, too.

[firefly333]

10 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

Look at the data from Israel and UAE which have the highest vaccination rates. But, as has been mentioned, not sure you can tell the drop is all due to vaccinations. 

Yes, I've posted twice in this thread I will be looking at israel data. Same same. Seems everyone is just echoing what I said lol.

 

I never said all drop is only due to vaccinations which is why I'm looking for a significant drop which imo would indicate the vaccines are kicking in. 

 

Denton county near me opened a motor speedway yesterday which will be the largest in the usa probably, 16 lanes, trying to do 32k in 3 days. They fell short yesterday but did 8k, 1k a hour there. With codes so people cant share links. 1 hr to 35 minutes start to finish. A great model for others to follow. They had some cancellations, so will overbook today to try and hit the 10k a day goal.

 

This yesterday has me hopeful. Seems like everyone is just echoing me and trying to be negative. This seemed positive to me  sorry. 

 

My negative worry is living in texas and keeping up with border crossing cases. If other places can open like denton county, we could really move forward. It was a drive thru, so much better.

Edited February 3, 2021 by firefly333

[RFerrington]

@firefly333are you still in FL or have you gone back to TX ?  

[firefly333]

4 minutes ago, RFerrington said:

@firefly333are you still in FL or have you gone back to TX ?  

No I'm back in texas. Today I'm taking my dad to his doctor to get vaccinated as he couldn't do the mass vaccine site. So his doctor called yesterday he has some doses, but they wouldnt do my moms 2nd shot. Said she had to go back to original site next monday. 

 

Maybe covid is helping me with my needle and shot phobia I've had since a toddler. Every time I turn on the news they show someone getting a shot, not time to turn away. I keep hearing seeing others getting shots is supposed to make people want to get it lol. I fainted last time i gave blood and they said dont come back, seeing someone faint, makes others queasy. I'm a baby about shots...yet here i am. Crazy times if you ask me for someone with a shot phobia.

 

Here is a link to new vaccine hub at dallas motor speedway that opened yesterday and was so efficient. 

 

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/texas-motor-speedway-covid-19-mega-vaccine-clinic-surprisingly-fast/2540221/

[molly361]

2 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

No I'm back in texas. Today I'm taking my dad to his doctor to get vaccinated as he couldn't do the mass vaccine site. So his doctor called yesterday he has some doses, but they wouldnt do my moms 2nd shot. Said she had to go back to original site next monday. 

 

Maybe covid is helping me with my needle and shot phobia I've had since a toddler. Every time I turn on the news they show someone getting a shot, not time to turn away. I keep hearing seeing others getting shots is supposed to make people want to get it lol. I fainted last time i gave blood and they said dont come back, seeing someone faint, makes others queasy. I'm a baby about shots...yet here i am. Crazy times if you ask me for someone with a shot phobia.

 

Here is a link to new vaccine hub at dallas motor speedway that opened yesterday and was so efficient. 

 

https://www.nbcdfw.com/news/coronavirus/texas-motor-speedway-covid-19-mega-vaccine-clinic-surprisingly-fast/2540221/

My sister and I have shot phobia's as well.  It's almost impossible for us to watch the news.  Been closing my eyes a LOT😇

[not-enough-cruising]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

Do any of you live in a place where hospitalizations and deaths have dropped yet from vaccinations? 

 

Dallas still has high deaths still from holiday exposures.

Texas Trauma Service Area Echo, of which Dallas is part, has seen daily decreasing Covid hospitalizations for nearly 2 weeks now. 
Elective surgeries and other areas of the medical community have resumed as of January 25, after a 2 week cessation of activities. This is assumed to be the end of the Christmas “spike”. 

We will not see a noticeable effect of vaccines on the hospital admissions rate until mid April at earliest. 

[NikiPinkston]

12 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I fainted last time i gave blood and they said dont come back, seeing someone faint, makes others queasy. I'm a baby about shots...yet here i am. 

I'm sorry you fainted, firefly333, but the same thing happened to me.  I can be a trooper about getting injections but donating blood did me in.  I felt really bad because my dad had AB negative blood & he used to donate all the time.  Hearing that you can't donate either somehow made me feel better.  I guess misery loves company.  Good luck with your vaccination!

[firefly333]

7 minutes ago, not-enough-cruising said:

Texas Trauma Service Area Echo, of which Dallas is part, has seen daily decreasing Covid hospitalizations for nearly 2 weeks now. 
Elective surgeries and other areas of the medical community have resumed as of January 25, after a 2 week cessation of activities. This is assumed to be the end of the Christmas “spike”. 

We will not see a noticeable effect of vaccines on the hospital admissions rate until mid April at earliest. 

Well it's a start, but werent hospitalizations under 15% until Thanksgiving? I thought they said 19% now so I'm surprised elective surgeries restarted. 

[logan25]

1 hour ago, firefly333 said:

Do any of you live in a place where hospitalizations and deaths have dropped yet from vaccinations? 

 

Dallas still has high deaths still from holiday exposures.

I will not predict the future, of course, but hospitalizations in my county are half what they were a month ago and still falling.

Edited February 3, 2021 by logan25

[DCGuy64]

Judging from the number of posters who keep saying that even 100% vaccinations won't necessarily stop the spread of the virus, I guess we can say goodbye to any cruising restarting, ever. If the goal is 100% perfection and 0% risk, then that ain't gonna happen, and cruising is dead forever. (That's not how I see things, BTW, just pointing out that those who want an unrealistic scenario are essentially putting the industry in its grave). At some point, we either acknowledge the possibility of an outbreak onboard, or we decide never to allow cruising again. What'll it be?

[reallyitsmema]

14 minutes ago, molly361 said:

My sister and I have shot phobia's as well.  It's almost impossible for us to watch the news.  Been closing my eyes a LOT😇

 

Have you been able to get an appointment yet?  I have been trying to get an earlier one for my Mom but am happy at least I have her scheduled for mid March.  I was able to get her friend in MA an appointment for tomorrow.  Both of them use a computer everyday but had issues with the whole process.  NH at least had a call center, though we couldn't get through to it.  MA is opening up a call center on Friday, two weeks after opening appointments to those 75+. 🙄  My 98 yr old aunt can not get her second shot when they have the clinic at her facility this week since you have to wait 14 days after a covid diagnosis for the vaccine, so she will have to wait another 3 weeks for the next clinic.  She is at least fighting the virus though and hasn't had to be hospitalized.

[molly361]

Just now, reallyitsmema said:

 

Have you been able to get an appointment yet?  I have been trying to get an earlier one for my Mom but am happy at least I have her scheduled for mid March.  I was able to get her friend in MA an appointment for tomorrow.  Both of them use a computer everyday but had issues with the whole process.  NH at least had a call center, though we couldn't get through to it.  MA is opening up a call center on Friday, two weeks after opening appointments to those 75+. 🙄  My 98 yr old aunt can not get her second shot when they have the clinic at her facility this week since you have to wait 14 days after a covid diagnosis for the vaccine, so she will have to wait another 3 weeks for the next clinic.  She is at least fighting the virus though and hasn't had to be hospitalized.

No but I quit trying.  I'm just going to wait for the J and J one I think.  On another note my 90 year old mom in NY has an appointment for her first jab on Sunday

[not-enough-cruising]

12 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Well it's a start, but werent hospitalizations under 15% until Thanksgiving? I thought they said 19% now so I'm surprised elective surgeries restarted. 

You have to look at the entire service area, not just Dallas county, that’s the number they use when determining essential services. They also look at the ratio of critical care beds Vs tertiary beds being used. 

[reallyitsmema]

1 minute ago, molly361 said:

No but I quit trying.  I'm just going to wait for the J and J one I think.  On another note my 90 year old mom in NY has an appointment for her first jab on Sunday

 

That's great she got an appointment!  My Mom is on a couple of lists at pharmacies near her that should be getting the vaccine soon, hopefully, that will get her something before her March 17th date.

[NikiPinkston]

I don't believe we need 100% of the population to receive the covid vaccine to achieve herd immunity, but I believe that everyone who is able to should get it.  Risks in life are inherent, and cruising is no different.  Here's a good article about herd immunity that says the percentage varies by disease, but we may need 80 - 90% of the population to become immune, either through vaccination or having had the disease. (It seems like the CDC is the one who deems cruising should be risk-free.)  

https://www.muhealth.org/our-stories/covid-19-vaccine-key-reaching-herd-immunity

[molly361]

3 minutes ago, reallyitsmema said:

 

That's great she got an appointment!  My Mom is on a couple of lists at pharmacies near her that should be getting the vaccine soon, hopefully, that will get her something before her March 17th date.

Forgot to add a few friend of mine have been online this am since 6 (Publix) and then again for the county.  None of them had success  Too stressful  I'll get one someday

[DCGuy64]

2 minutes ago, NikiPinkston said:

I don't believe we need 100% of the population to receive the covid vaccine to achieve herd immunity, but I believe that everyone who is able to should get it.  Risks in life are inherent, and cruising is no different.  Here's a good article about herd immunity that says the percentage varies by disease, but we may need 80 - 90% of the population to become immune, either through vaccination or having had the disease. (It seems like the CDC is the one who deems cruising should be risk-free.)  

https://www.muhealth.org/our-stories/covid-19-vaccine-key-reaching-herd-immunity

Interesting, thanks for posting this link. I read the article, and am intrigued about what it says regarding immunity based on recovery. While I still plan to get the vaccine, I'm not eligible just yet, but I have had COVID-19 and recovered. (just tested negative on Monday) I wonder if people like me would be allowed to travel on a hypothetical cruise or not.

[broberts]

1 hour ago, DCGuy64 said:

Judging from the number of posters who keep saying that even 100% vaccinations won't necessarily stop the spread of the virus, I guess we can say goodbye to any cruising restarting, ever. If the goal is 100% perfection and 0% risk, then that ain't gonna happen, and cruising is dead forever. (That's not how I see things, BTW, just pointing out that those who want an unrealistic scenario are essentially putting the industry in its grave). At some point, we either acknowledge the possibility of an outbreak onboard, or we decide never to allow cruising again. What'll it be?

 

With 100% vaccination, or something close to that cruising can easily return. Herd immunity becomes moot as transmission of the virus would no longer be a serious concern. Public health concerns will become similar to the common flu. The data is quite clear, Pfizer, Modernay, J&J and AstraZeneca all report zero or near zero cases of severe illness requiring hospitalization. So while seriously at risk people will still need to be careful, they would in any case because of flu and other threats.

Edited February 3, 2021 by broberts

[lizzius]

28 minutes ago, DCGuy64 said:

Interesting, thanks for posting this link. I read the article, and am intrigued about what it says regarding immunity based on recovery. While I still plan to get the vaccine, I'm not eligible just yet, but I have had COVID-19 and recovered. (just tested negative on Monday) I wonder if people like me would be allowed to travel on a hypothetical cruise or not.

I don't think there's a chance cruises will sail until the IFR and hospitalization rates look more like the flu, and the idea of confining people who are not sick to quarters over a positive case or potentially quarantining an entire ship have a vanishingly small chance of happening... that's going to require the world's governments (and the population at large) to have a much higher risk tolerance with respect to the virus (which will come as the death and hospitalization rate continue to drop).

 

I also don't think vaccination mandates will do anything to change that, but vaccination uptake and general immunity absolutely will. That probably seems like a roundabout way to answer your question, and maybe it's overly optimistic to hope that by the time we even begin to consider sailing this question will seem kind of quaint.

Edited February 3, 2021 by lizzius

[firefly333]

33 minutes ago, not-enough-cruising said:

You have to look at the entire service area, not just Dallas county, that’s the number they use when determining essential services. They also look at the ratio of critical care beds Vs tertiary beds being used. 

Yes I realized the 15% was the area, not just dallas county. Still seems they said it had to come down under 15% to reopen, but maybe elective surgeries different. They closed restaurants back to 50% from 75% they said until the rate was back under 15% but maybe their lines what is allowed and when shift. Idk

[firefly333]

39 minutes ago, reallyitsmema said:

 

That's great she got an appointment!  My Mom is on a couple of lists at pharmacies near her that should be getting the vaccine soon, hopefully, that will get her something before her March 17th date.

I was really surprised my dad got a call from his gp yesterday. So we are off for him to get his first shot. No way he could handle the mass site me and mom went to. He is so frail some days he cant hardly make it all the way on his Walker to the kitchen. He turns 103 sept 3rd. So I think that's why he is getting called in to do it.

[DCGuy64]

10 minutes ago, lizzius said:

I don't think there's a chance cruises will sail until the IFR and hospitalization rates look more like the flu, and the idea of confining people who are not sick to quarters over a positive case or potentially quarantining an entire ship have a vanishingly small chance of happening... that's going to require the world's governments (and the population at large) to have a much higher risk tolerance with respect to the virus (which will come as the death and hospitalization rate continue to drop).

 

I also don't think vaccination mandates will do anything to change that, but vaccination uptake and general immunity absolutely will. That probably seems like a roundabout way to answer your question, and maybe it's overly optimistic to hope that by the time we even begin to consider sailing this question will seem kind of quaint.

I'm not as sanguine as you appear to be. Last year, the talk seemed to be all about the importance of even finding a vaccine. Well, we now have Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Johnson&Johnson, yet there's no indication that I can see showing that the cruise industry is anywhere close to restarting. As it stands, the CDC is firmly in control, and they aren't indicating any willingness to adjust the timeframe for allowing cruising to resume. My own, admittedly pessimistic view is that the CDC will continue to be ultra cautious (and that's kind of their job, to be fair), which means cruising will not come back for a very long time. The question is, will it be too late to avoid bankruptcies? I'm not hopeful.

[NikiPinkston]

7 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

I was really surprised my dad got a call from his gp yesterday. So we are off for him to get his first shot. No way he could handle the mass site me and mom went to. He is so frail some days he cant hardly make it all the way on his Walker to the kitchen. He turns 103 sept 3rd. So I think that's why he is getting called in to do it.

God bless your Dad; you're so blessed to still have your parents, and it sounds like you're a great daughter!

[NikiPinkston]

1 minute ago, DCGuy64 said:

I'm not as sanguine as you appear to be. Last year, the talk seemed to be all about the importance of even finding a vaccine. Well, we now have Moderna, Pfizer, AstraZeneca and Johnson&Johnson, yet there's no indication that I can see showing that the cruise industry is anywhere close to restarting. As it stands, the CDC is firmly in control, and they aren't indicating any willingness to adjust the timeframe for allowing cruising to resume. My own, admittedly pessimistic view is that the CDC will continue to be ultra cautious (and that's kind of their job, to be fair), which means cruising will not come back for a very long time. The question is, will it be too late to avoid bankruptcies? I'm not hopeful.

Extra points for using "sanguine" in a sentence. 😊