First cruise is positive for covid: What will have to change?

[BoozinCroozin]

Celebrity cruised with 100% vaccinated passengers out of St Maarten. St Maarten required covid testing before arriving to the island and before disembarking back at the island. There were only 600 passengers (give or take) on the cruise. There are several possibilities, but it brings the entire covid protocol for cruise ships under even more scrutiny. This leads to the question of what has to be changed?

 

1. Cruise #1 is positive for covid with 100% vaccination. They quickly need to find out where the breakdown in protocol(s) happened. False vaccine information, substandard covid testing before going, shore excursion, or whatever else.
2. This is not what the US cruise industry needed (I know this was out of St Maarten). Before the first ship sails from the US, I expect the CDC to put on more restrictions now instead of letting up. 
3. Cruise lines are going to have to seriously look at going vaccinated only. Yes it is only 2 people now. Imagine this on a cruise with unvaccinated passengers. This could be much larger.

 

What do you think the CDC and cruise lines are going to have to do now to sail from the US? I think this is a black eye right now for the cruise industry. The CDC is going to be all over this like a fat boy at a buffet.

Edited June 11, 2021 by BoozinCroozin

[chengkp75]

9 minutes ago, BoozinCroozin said:

What do you think the CDC and cruise lines are going to have to do now to sail from the US?

This will depend on how Celebrity's covid plan aligns with the CDC's CSO.  It will also depend on how things actually transpired onboard, and how the protocols to keep those who tested positive were quarantined, and how the contact tracing of those individuals worked.  The main thing that the CDC will be looking for, is whether the process worked, not whether a few cases developed.   Given that the CDC has stated that the outbreak level is 1.5% before any action by CDC would be required, they are admitting there will be cases, but if the process works, they will be limited, and transmission will be limited.

 

I don't think that one or two cases popping up, even on a supposedly 100% vaccinated cruise, will cause all the hand wringing and heartache that many believe.

[cruisemom42]

Keep in mind that COVID-19 can take up to two weeks to develop, so the people could have been exposed before the cruise ever started.

 

Celebrity seems to be following their protocol. Contact tracing and testing of those who may have been exposed is ongoing. 

 

 

[Roz]

Also keep in mind that even if someone does have Covid, if there are a lot vaccinated passengers onboard, they either won't contract Covid or will come down with a mild case.  This is different than the situation in early 2020 when we didn't understand what we were dealing with, there weren't effective treatments, and no vaccines.  

 

As long as this stuff is around, you're never going to have a sailing with 100% no Covid cases.

[CruisingAlong4Now]

Apparently there are unvaccinated children on board.  So, not really 100% vaccinated passengers.

[BoozinCroozin]

Needless-to-say, this is already all over the news. It never mattered what the protocols were, what contingencies were in place, or anything else. The cruise lines knew that if something were to happen the media would be all over it and blowing it out of proportion. The media is not talking about 14-days to show up, unvaccinated or vaccinated. All they needed to stoke this little spark was one positive covid and they can throw diesel fuel onto the match. 

 

Now, the cruise lines will need to address it and deal with it. Its unfortunate, but this can easily put another temporary pause on sailing dates while the CDC and cruise lines mull what happened.

[VMax1700]

2 pax tested positive.  they are asymptomatic.  It takes 10/14 days to develop.  It was a 7 day cruise.   They could have picked it up at a restaurant, or their work place.  They could even have picked it up on a aircraft or airport, but the media would not be interested in speculating about that when they can jump all over the cruise industry again.

[navybankerteacher]

8 minutes ago, VMax1700 said:

2 pax tested positive.  they are asymptomatic.  It takes 10/14 days to develop.  It was a 7 day cruise.   They could have picked it up at a restaurant, or their work place.  They could even have picked it up on a aircraft or airport, but the media would not be interested in speculating about that when they can jump all over the cruise industry again.

It is not so much a matter of where they picked it up - the question is: should there be thousands of people in a fairly confined space for a week? --- which is the definition of a spreader event

[Luckiestmanonearth]

Maybe I’m just an optimist but is this really a big deal or sign of relief

 

2 pax tested positive and are as asymptomatic and will have to remain in St Maarten until they test negative .  Sounds like everyone else will be cleared to go home (I assume everyone will need a negative test but haven’t heard protocols for departing the ship)

 

This will happen until Covid is eradicated.

 

Again is this a big deal or sign of relief?

[Joebucks]

It was always clear that the media wasn't going to allow cruising to happen. If we are going to have this much panic over two asymptomatic cases, there is no hope. 

 

I flew on a full plane yesterday undoubtedly there was someone with covid on it. Of course, no one was tested. Nearly everyone had their masks off to eat their snacks. The difference? The airlines grease the right wheels politically. 

[chengkp75]

49 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

It is not so much a matter of where they picked it up - the question is: should there be thousands of people in a fairly confined space for a week? --- which is the definition of a spreader event

No, the question is, do the protocols protect the thousands of people from the few cases.  Again, the process is what determines whether it is a spreader event or not.

[DirtyDawg]

23 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

It was always clear that the media wasn't going to allow cruising to happen. If we are going to have this much panic over two asymptomatic cases, there is no hope. 

 

I flew on a full plane yesterday undoubtedly there was someone with covid on it. Of course, no one was tested. Nearly everyone had their masks off to eat their snacks. The difference? The airlines grease the right wheels politically. 

 

Maybe it's because the airlines pay Federal income tax when they are profitable and the cruise lines..... well, not so much. 😉

[navybankerteacher]

5 minutes ago, chengkp75 said:

No, the question is, do the protocols protect the thousands of people from the few cases.  Again, the process is what determines whether it is a spreader event or not.

I would say it is the extent of contagion which determines whether it is a spreader event or not.  The process, if effective , will hold down/eliminate the extent.  

[navybankerteacher]

2 minutes ago, DirtyDawg said:

 

Maybe it's because the airlines pay Federal income tax when they are profitable and the cruise lines..... well, not so much. 😉

Also, the airlines do serve a more significant purpose than purely recreational travel.

[Luckiestmanonearth]

52 minutes ago, Joebucks said:

It was always clear that the media wasn't going to allow cruising to happen. If we are going to have this much panic over two asymptomatic cases, there is no hope. 

 

I flew on a full plane yesterday undoubtedly there was someone with covid on it. Of course, no one was tested. Nearly everyone had their masks off to eat their snacks. The difference? The airlines grease the right wheels politically. 

The key similarity is that people are in close proximity for a certain duration.

You could argue that it’s worse on flights as people are literally side by side and breathing recycled air, as opposed to a cruise that people can spread out a bit more and there are places to go outside 

[Geobugs]

4 hours ago, BoozinCroozin said:

Celebrity cruised with 100% vaccinated passengers out of St Maarten.  Cruise lines are going to have to seriously look at going vaccinated only. Yes it is only 2 people now. Imagine this on a cruise with unvaccinated passengers. This could be much larger.

I imagine that on a cruise with unvaccinated passengers and proper mask wearing and social distancing that no one will test positive for Covid-19.  On March 7, 2020, I spend a week on the Sky Princess.  No one was vaccinated on that cruise.  There were no issues.  Covid 19 existed for months prior to that sailing. Also it was just two passengers, that were asystematic, no harm, no foul.  No one was hurt, move on.

[BoozinCroozin]

I guess a lot of people are missing the point or coming in with the Rose Glasses. What is at issue here is the FIRST cruise out of NA in 15+ months was a "vaccinated only" passenger cruise that has had 2 positive covid cases. 

 

What is at stake here is an EXTREMELY fragile situation where ANY bad news is catastrophic. This give the CDC more ammunition to now back track what they have given up in order to start cruising. When the entire industry in NA needed to have several weeks of no issues at all, the very first sailing with only 600 passengers onboard failed. Nothing else matters but that simple statement. It is on the news here in the US and every media outlet has their articles or people talking about it.

 

It doesn't matter how safe people are or what is going on. All that matters is it is all over the media already. It is ammunition for the CDC and their CSO. They could come back today and say they are reinstating all the restrictions for cruising and the lines have to meet the original requirements. The other outcome would be vaccinated only, capacity at 30-40%, cruise shore excursions only, everyone puts the diaper back on 24/7 when not in their cabin, etc. This was about the worst thing that could have happened for the start of cruising here. The only thing worse would have been the ship blowing up and sinking.

[jtwind]

2 hours ago, VMax1700 said:

 It takes 10/14 days to develop.  It was a 7 day cruise.

I think you meant to say CAN take up to 10/14 days to develop.  Last I checked, the normal is 3 to 5 days.

[cruisemom42]

25 minutes ago, BoozinCroozin said:

This was about the worst thing that could have happened for the start of cruising here. The only thing worse would have been the ship blowing up and sinking.

 

You seem to be the one blowing this out of proportion.

 

The CDC guidance always accounted for the possibility of some COVID cases onboard as ships restarted. What was less transparent was the threshold number of cases at which the ship would have to stop its voyage and return to home port. Clearly that threshold is not two people who appear to be traveling together and who may have been exposed together. 

 

So far as I know, Celebrity has not found additional positives in their testing of contacts. That's good news. The two positive cruisers are quarantined; their traced contacts were also told they had to quarantine, at least until tested.

 

My concern at this time would not be so much with the CDC rescinding their guidance as with other ports getting spooked by this and deciding to not allow the ships to call...

[TXRANCHER]

If what I heard in court yesterday is right it is more than 1.5% or 1.1% of the passengers and crew on board. It is in the CSO.  The judge was querying the DoJ attorney as to the basis for that number. 

[BoozinCroozin]

32 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

You seem to be the one blowing this out of proportion.

It is not me, it is the media!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

The cruise industry needed a pristine start, prove their protocols work, and insure there were NO covid cases to start. Even the analysts and CDC have stated it. Look at any new outlet out there in the US and you will see: FIRST CRUISE FROM NA HAS 2 CASES OF COVID

 

If that was the message and ammunition the cruise lines want to go with on the first cruise, great. I know the number is minimal and meaningless as the rest of you. What is at issue is the cruise lines did not need this attention right before they start sailing from the US. 

 

Do you really think that the CDC is going to say: "Oh, we agree with everything you are doing. All of your protocols and procedures are so perfect. Everything is going to be safe on cruise ships and we can just let everything be the same." Completely ridiculous to think that this was anything but a blackeye for the cruise lines. 

 

Next you will see people going back to complaining: my 11yo can't cruise now because he is not vaccinated. It is all going to come back to this very first cruise. 

[KKB]

1 hour ago, Luckiestmanonearth said:

The key similarity is that people are in close proximity for a certain duration.

You could argue that it’s worse on flights as people are literally side by side and breathing recycled air, as opposed to a cruise that people can spread out a bit more and there are places to go outside 

40% of airplane air is sent thru HEPA filters & 60% is fresh air. Way better than enclosed areas.

All are masked (supposed to be...I've flown 6 trips during COVID & I have seen few that weren't very good about this). 

 

[Roz]

If most of the passengers onboard are vaccinated, how can it be a spreader event?

[KKB]

Just now, Roz said:

If most of the passengers onboard are vaccinated, how can it be a spreader event?

EXACTLY.

Celebrity remains committed to the 95% vaccinated rate--others are not. 

Though all lines seem to be putting more strict protocols in place for the unvaccinated (or those who refuse to share--I"m gonna say that is NO ONE).

 

[Luckiestmanonearth]

1 hour ago, BoozinCroozin said:

I guess a lot of people are missing the point or coming in with the Rose Glasses. What is at issue here is the FIRST cruise out of NA in 15+ months was a "vaccinated only" passenger cruise that has had 2 positive covid cases. 

 

What is at stake here is an EXTREMELY fragile situation where ANY bad news is catastrophic. This give the CDC more ammunition to now back track what they have given up in order to start cruising. When the entire industry in NA needed to have several weeks of no issues at all, the very first sailing with only 600 passengers onboard failed. Nothing else matters but that simple statement. It is on the news here in the US and every media outlet has their articles or people talking about it.

 

It doesn't matter how safe people are or what is going on. All that matters is it is all over the media already. It is ammunition for the CDC and their CSO. They could come back today and say they are reinstating all the restrictions for cruising and the lines have to meet the original requirements. The other outcome would be vaccinated only, capacity at 30-40%, cruise shore excursions only, everyone puts the diaper back on 24/7 when not in their cabin, etc. This was about the worst thing that could have happened for the start of cruising here. The only thing worse would have been the ship blowing up and sinking.

 

Potato vs Potato (it’s all in the perspective)

 

What is at issue here is the FIRST cruise out of NA in 15+ months was a "vaccinated only" passenger cruise that has ONLY had 2 positive covid cases.