Is the end in sight for the Australa cruise ship ban??

[NSWP]

18 hours ago, ekka49 said:

How far in advance at our age can we book cruises.

Just Rolled over a world cruise 110 nights to 2024

Please tell me I will be LUCKY 

Time will tell, who knows if world cruising will happen in 2023/2024.

[ilikeanswers]

3 minutes ago, NSWP said:

This new African variety 'Omicron' is a worry, don't want it here. UK has stopped flights from South Africa, so should we.

 

I don't think we restarted flights to South Africa🤔. Maybe this outbreak is what is needed to get countries to take the Covax program more seriously. Stop giving Africa nearly expired vaccines so they have time to actually vaccinate people😬. 

[Russell21]

Carnival have offered some very attractive cruises for next year but they are including countries that are still very early in their vaccination plan. Desperate to cruise as I am I'm still going to wait until cruising actually starts.

[portcbob]

27 minutes ago, Russell21 said:

Carnival have offered some very attractive cruises for next year but they are including countries that are still very early in their vaccination plan. Desperate to cruise as I am I'm still going to wait until cruising actually starts.

Carnival has some nice ones from Brissie of 7 days to Airlie Beach, Cairns ect which are really cheap. March, 2022.  Carnival Spirit.

[MicCanberra]

17 minutes ago, portcbob said:

Carnival has some nice ones from Brissie of 7 days to Airlie Beach, Cairns ect which are really cheap. March, 2022.  Carnival Spirit.

Possibly cheap due to the probability  of the cruise be cancelled 

[SinbadThePorter]

36 minutes ago, portcbob said:

Carnival has some nice ones from Brissie

 

I like the look of this one to Cairns. But I really can't see any cruises to the South Pacific happening next year. So it's hard to say how they could keep Spirit busy all year with just Qld ports.

 

From the Terms and Conditions:

"In the event that Carnival is unable to operate a cruise, the opportunity to receive a full refund will be offered. Offer booking terms: Deposits are NOT: refundable or transferable."

 

Which is encouraging. Sort of.

[LittleFish1976]

5 hours ago, ollyoeno said:

 

By the time it took you to read the news, the WHO had named the variant. There are now 89 laboratory identified cases, after a review of the original 10 profiles. It will take 2-3 weeks to build a profile of the variant, but experts have already said:

 

 

 

We shall see what doom the newspapers spread this time and how pollies will politicise it. As for cruising, I’ll repeat my observation that it’s now safer than flying in recirculated air. Many conclusions to draw from that.

It's quite a lot more cases than that but anyway, let's just stick to the facts. Enjoy your cruise, if it happens.

 

[ollyoeno]

5 hours ago, LittleFish1976 said:

It's quite a lot more cases than that but anyway, let's just stick to the facts. Enjoy your cruise, if it happens.

 

 

As of today it's 89 laboratory confirmed cases, with another 900 (not active) cases which may have been the variant. It will take 2-3 weeks to sequence those.

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by ollyoeno

[possum52]

44 minutes ago, ollyoeno said:

 

As of today it's 89 laboratory confirmed cases, with another 900 potential. Facts.

According to the ABC there are many more confirmed cases than 89. Omicron Cases in South Africa and from the Guardian ''The number of confirmed Omicron Covid cases in South Africa is still relatively low, with 2,828 new confirmed cases recorded on Friday, but its speed in infecting young people in the country has alarmed health professionals, the Associated Press reports. Diagnostic tests so far indicate the Omicron variant may be responsible for as many as 90% of the new cases, according to South Africa’s health officials.

Early studies show that it has a reproduction rate of 2 — meaning that every person infected by it is likely to spread it to two other people.''

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by possum52

[ollyoeno]

14 minutes ago, possum52 said:

According to the ABC there are many more confirmed cases than 89. Omicron Cases in South Africa and the Guardian says ''The number of confirmed Omicron Covid cases in South Africa is still relatively low, with 2,828 new confirmed cases recorded on Friday, but its speed in infecting young people in the country has alarmed health professionals, the Associated Press reports.''

 

Another example of garbage reporting.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/nov/26/vaccine-resistant-what-scientists-know-new-covid-variant

 

https://www.euronews.com/next/2021/11/25/what-we-know-so-far-about-the-b-1-1-529-covid-variant-causing-concern-in-south-africa

 

From the first source:

 

"This is not yet clearcut but the emerging picture is worrying. There has been a surge of cases in South Africa from 273 cases on 16 November to more than 1,200 by the start of this week. More than 80% of these were from Gauteng province and preliminary analysis suggests the variant has rapidly become the dominant strain. The R value, which indicates how fast an epidemic is growing, is estimated to be 1.47 for South Africa as a whole, but 1.93 in Gauteng. There is a chance this is a statistical blip linked to a super-spreader event but the data has triggered enough concern for precautionary measures."

 

Preliminary analysis is not lab confirmed cases, nor is it clear who has undertaken the analysis, per my original post. I am certain there will be further lab confirmed cases soon but people should practice due diligence before 'accepting' information. The second source states there were 22 lab identified cases recorded on Thursday (2 days ago) in South Africa, which has since risen to 87 from available information with a further 2 confirmed cases in Europe and Hong Kong, for a total of 89.

 

Confirming the exact transmissibility and 'R' value should take 2-3 weeks. This researcher has apologised for his comments which were taken out of context "Horrific Spike Profile" and has confirmed SA did a fantastic job sharing their data with research teams, so its rather unfortunate some comments have been taken out of context and blown up by world media to sell newspapers.

 

Edited November 27, 2021 by ollyoeno

[Aus Traveller]

12 hours ago, ollyoeno said:

 

Confirming the exact transmissibility and 'R' value should take 2-3 weeks. This researcher has apologised for his comments which were taken out of context "Horrific Spike Profile" and has confirmed SA did a fantastic job sharing their data with research teams, so its rather unfortunate some comments have been taken out of context and blown up by world media to sell newspapers.

 

I sincerely hope that the comment that reports about the new variant have been "blown up by the world media to sell newspapers" is correct, but I fear it is not.

[NSWP]

5 minutes ago, Aus Traveller said:

I sincerely hope that the comment that reports about the new variant have been "blown up by the world media to sell newspapers" is correct, but I fear it is not.

It is real.

[Aus Traveller]

Just now, NSWP said:

It is real.

Agreed. When there has been time to properly assess how dangerous this new variant is, I hope it is found to be not as bad as it appears at the moment. However, I think it is prudent for governments to take precautions in case it is highly contagious rather than find out after the horse (or several horses) have bolted.

[Aussieflyer]

3 hours ago, Aus Traveller said:

Agreed. When there has been time to properly assess how dangerous this new variant is, I hope it is found to be not as bad as it appears at the moment. However, I think it is prudent for governments to take precautions in case it is highly contagious rather than find out after the horse (or several horses) have bolted.

And I suspect there will be no start to cruising just yet.

[ekka49]

8 hours ago, Aus Traveller said:

I sincerely hope that the comment that reports about the new variant have been "blown up by the world media to sell newspapers" is correct, but I fear it is not.

I fear that you are correct

[MicCanberra]

Too little is known for them to allow cruising to restart here.

[portcbob]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the whole of 2022 cruising season is now in serious jeopardy and could be abandoned.🥵

[rkmw]

On 11/27/2021 at 1:37 PM, SinbadThePorter said:

 

I like the look of this one to Cairns. But I really can't see any cruises to the South Pacific happening next year. So it's hard to say how they could keep Spirit busy all year with just Qld ports.

 

From the Terms and Conditions:

"In the event that Carnival is unable to operate a cruise, the opportunity to receive a full refund will be offered. Offer booking terms: Deposits are NOT: refundable or transferable."

 

Which is encouraging. Sort of.

Carnival have better cruises than that one with the Black Friday sale which end tonight at midnight https://www.carnival.com.au

Edited November 28, 2021 by rkmw

[MicCanberra]

I am still hopeful for cruising to restart with the winter season using the usual lines but that won't happen  until at least May. Likely to be 2 months after the fed election 

Of course, things can and will change, meaning it is just hopes,

[OzKiwiJJ]

4 hours ago, portcbob said:

I wouldn't be at all surprised if the whole of 2022 cruising season is now in serious jeopardy and could be abandoned.🥵

Hopefully not. We have to learn to live with Covid, including new variants.

 

Australians have been tolerant of lockdowns and restrictions on travelling while the initial vaccine rollout was happening but I don't think we'll tolerate much more of that. If there is no cruising here then Australians will take their cruising dollars overseas.

[mr walker]

2 hours ago, MicCanberra said:

I am still hopeful for cruising to restart with the winter season using the usual lines but that won't happen  until at least May. Likely to be 2 months after the fed election 

Do you consider the decision/timing will change based on the election result? I think that the health advice etc will continue to be similar so whichever party wins it's likely the course forward will likely be similar. I am guessing that the chances of a resumption are greater after the election as you suggest, just because it will then be a long term until the next election. I am thinking that the election will likely result in a minority government (one side or the other) & a significant battle for the PM in dealing with the senate. Anyway, let's hope for a return to cruising sooner than later.

[SinbadThePorter]

3 minutes ago, mr walker said:

Do you consider the decision/timing will change based on the election result?

 

Not the result, the election campaign.

 

The current government is not going to want to see a ship full of covid return to an Australian port in the middle of an election campaign. At the very least it would invoke invidious comparisons with the role of the Federal government in Ruby Princess debacle, which is a can of worms they desperately want to keep buried. In other words, restarting cruising is a political risk and we have a very risk adverse government.

 

This government keeps saying it wants cruising restarted, and then keeps doing nothing about it. Likely there is a tension within the government between those who want credit for restarting cruises and those who want nothing to do with it. The government will take whichever action it feels enhances their chances of winning the election.

 

On the balance of probabilities I think the Feds will keep stonewalling on cruising until the election is called. Once the election is over those tensions disappear and there will be no longer any impediment to restarting for the victor.

[Russell21]

Just read an article written by the SA Doctor who discovered this latest variant. She claims that there has been an understandable over reaction to this variant, as while it is very virulent, easy to spread and catch, they symptoms are relatively mild.

[portcbob]

1 hour ago, Russell21 said:

Just read an article written by the SA Doctor who discovered this latest variant. She claims that there has been an understandable over reaction to this variant, as while it is very virulent, easy to spread and catch, they symptoms are relatively mild.

Heard the same.👍

[NSWP]

1 hour ago, Russell21 said:

Just read an article written by the SA Doctor who discovered this latest variant. She claims that there has been an understandable over reaction to this variant, as while it is very virulent, easy to spread and catch, they symptoms are relatively mild.

The media is in a frenzy over Omicron, this makes people anxious.