Investment Article about Soft Cruise Ship Demand

[nocl]

1 hour ago, Mary229 said:

and if they debark and it is determined that the tests were false positives, as has happened frequently, will the media retract?  (as an aside: I noticed another thread where lines are getting rid of the PCR test, the antigen is far more accurate.)

Actually the opposite. PCR is more accurate but takes more time and expense. Antigen is faster and cheaper but more prone to false positives. That is why the cruise lines in Europe that did testing at the pier tested with antigen, then retested any positives with PCR.

 

 

 

antigen tests tend to have some false positives, pcr not so much

[SumoCitrus]

2 hours ago, nocl said:

However, there have been several surveys run over the past several months both before and after cruising restart. They are consistent in that all of them show that 60%+ of cruisers (having completed atleast 1 prior cruise) support the vaccination requirements.

 

So while vaccination may prevent some from cruising, not requiring it are likely to result in even more not cruising.

 

The cruiselines are also running their own surveys (I have been contacted by 2 different lines for surveys concerning various protective measures).

 

 

 

If it's a battle of the surveys, the cruise line still loses. This isn't a "majority wins" situation, it's a business. They will not be able to sustain their business if 40% or more of their customer base refuses to sail. So, maybe you "won" the survey war but we all lose in the end.

[nocl]

1 hour ago, SumoCitrus said:

 

If it's a battle of the surveys, the cruise line still loses. This isn't a "majority wins" situation, it's a business. They will not be able to sustain their business if 40% or more of their customer base refuses to sail. So, maybe you "won" the survey war but we all lose in the end.

They still have to take their customers preference in wanting the vaccination requirement. Does them no good if in satisfying the 40 percent, they lose the 60 percent of their customer base.

 

We don't all lose some of us are on board ship today and enjoying the 42% passenger load and being the only ship in Cabo. Brings back memories of what cruising was like 10 to 15 years ago.

Edited December 6, 2021 by nocl

[KAKcruiser]

I don't agree that cruise lines are discounting.  It seems to me that prices are up.  

[mcrcruiser]

We have 5 cruises booked  starting Dec 3rd ,2022 . If this virus & all the requirements are not slowing down by the time full payment is required we must cancel . It is not that we won't cruise .It is our ages  as we are 83 & 84 by the first cruise with underlying medical conditions  .I can not get the booster because i had a breathing problem 5 hours after the  JnJ injection . I really thought it was the end 

 

I don't know how many people have used the KN95  masks but ,I can tell you it is a challenge to walk too much & breathe  . I would be using a scooter  on ships  but still there is concern especially if these variants continue  . Cruise ships are not  that well ventilated inside  even though they claim to have upgraded the ventilation systems  

 

 Time will tell what we can or can't do   .We have a May land  trip for 3 weeks planed to the National Parks of Utah 

 

 

[mcrcruiser]

10 hours ago, KirkNC said:

Only time will tell the long term impact if any the pandemic will have on cruise demand and the industry as a whole.  My best guess is that it will take years to get close to pre-pandemic levels.  The hard core cruiser will go (many are on CC) but those marginal cruisers may never return.  Too many images of Diamond Princess in their heads.   

Kirk  perhaps the cruise lines will have to rotate their ships having some sailing & others on the side lines & then change to the ones on the side lines ie 

[tntornadox]

5 hours ago, FlaMariner said:

 

Exactly....and you passed by at least 17 people in Walmart and/or the grocery store who would be positive if they were tested.....Why is it news if it was on a cruise ship?  Good grief.....we've got to get real....Covid is here to stay and we have to learn to live with it....Reminds me of the news hyping a tropic storm (winds 40 mph).  So what. 

 

I completely agree with this sentiment. I'm triple vaxxed and think it's time we move on. There will never be 'zero' cases of this thing. What's the end game for 'normal'?

[OlsSalt]

6 hours ago, KirkNC said:

And all these comments is why we have soft demand.  Our local news had a news headline that 17 people on a recent NCL cruise had CV.  At the end of the story they said the were asymptomatic.  What part of the story do you think people will remember?

 

I believe they said those few on the NCL ship only "tested positive" for Covid, with the understanding there is yet to be even a reliable testing procedure.

[iancal]

6 hours ago, FlaMariner said:

 

Exactly....and you passed by at least 17 people in Walmart and/or the grocery store who would be positive if they were tested.....Why is it news if it was on a cruise ship?  Good grief.....we've got to get real....Covid is here to stay and we have to learn to live with it....Reminds me of the news hyping a tropic storm (winds 40 mph).  So what. 

Hard to say.  We have 42 confirmed cases (and potentially more) all related from a recent breakout at a restaurant.

[OlsSalt]

4 hours ago, nocl said:

They still have to take their customers preference in wanting the vaccination requirement. Does them no good if in satisfying the 40 percent, they lose the 60 percent of their customer base.

 

We don't all lose some of us are on board ship today and enjoying the 42% passenger load and being the only ship in Cabo. Brings back memories of what cruising was like 10 to 15 years ago.

 

Wonder what the accurate numbers are measuring those who have moved on from 100% covid fears, to those who now see it as an acceptable travel risk.  

 

Cruise industry might be surprised if they remain locked into thinking only the strictest possible protocol is what passengers demand .I just don't know, but I think it is good to start hearing from those who are reluctant to cruise again because of the demands, mandates and hassles.  And are willing to risk the trade-offs. Who would survey for this?

 

Anyone who enjoyed watching the huge crowds at the recent final college football games appreciates large numbers of people can gather in closed settings, yell and cheer and appear not worry about being masked or social distancing.

 

So far no reports of a new wave of new cases from this recent football crowd free for alls.  (No fan of the Crimson Tide, but they were very impressive. So was Utah - lots of fun upsets.)

 

Science, data and time will be our friend.

[nocl]

1 hour ago, OlsSalt said:

 

Wonder what the accurate numbers are measuring those who have moved on from 100% covid fears, to those who now see it as an acceptable travel risk.  

 

Cruise industry might be surprised if they remain locked into thinking only the strictest possible protocol is what passengers demand .I just don't know, but I think it is good to start hearing from those who are reluctant to cruise again because of the demands, mandates and hassles.  And are willing to risk the trade-offs. Who would survey for this?

 

Anyone who enjoyed watching the huge crowds at the recent final college football games appreciates large numbers of people can gather in closed settings, yell and cheer and appear not worry about being masked or social distancing.

 

So far no reports of a new wave of new cases from this recent football crowd free for alls.  (No fan of the Crimson Tide, but they were very impressive. So was Utah - lots of fun upsets.)

 

Science, data and time will be our friend.

Considering that the US is back over 100,000 cases per day. No new events tied to the football games, but then again is anyone really looking with the increasing number of cases overall. 

 

Also most of those games are outside. pretty clear that little transmission take place outdoors.

Edited December 7, 2021 by nocl

[mcrcruiser]

1 hour ago, tntornadox said:

 

I completely agree with this sentiment. I'm triple vaxxed and think it's time we move on. There will never be 'zero' cases of this thing. What's the end game for 'normal'?

Not every one is able to get so many vaccines  into their system . We can hope & pray that one day this disease is no longer a plague

[mcrcruiser]

There is also the possibility that Pfizers new covid pills will be a great help in fighting  this disease 

[SumoCitrus]

7 hours ago, nocl said:

We don't all lose some of us are on board ship today and enjoying the 42% passenger load and being the only ship in Cabo. Brings back memories of what cruising was like 10 to 15 years ago.

 

Enjoy. It won't last. That is not a profitable situation.

[boze9999]

Everyone has their different levels of comfort and acceptance. Since cruising began again, we have sailed on 4 HAL sailings, all of which have sailed with zero crew or passenger positive tests. Each sailing (7-15 days) has been remarkable. The crew works 24/7 cleaning every inch of the ship. If you love sailing, wearing a mask as you go to and fro is not a big deal (and I hate masks and come from a state where NO ONE wears them). Other than walking around the ship, you're able to enjoy life around the recreation areas, bars and restaurants with your mask aside. I do not believe HAL has downgraded everything. Yes, some things are different, but so are they in your favorite stores and shops at home. Life is short IMO and as long as the ships are sailing, we'll be on them, regardless of the FOMO of lost ports, etc. Make your own decision to go or not and accept and enjoy either way.

[jakers]

I agree with boze999. We will be going on our third cruise since the restart over Christmas. We were on the Nieuw Amsterdam's first cruise to Alaska. After that, the Carnival Panorama to Mexico for Halloween. The Christmas cruise will be on HAL Koningsdam. We have usually sailed on HAL's smaller ships (now gone) because my daughter has anxiety around crowds. We now love the larger ships because there is more to do, better entertainment, and more places to have fun. The fact that the price is greatly reduced as well as the amount of people onboard is a giant plus. When all you naysayers get over your high anxiety you can feel free to join us. Until then, I'm going to enjoy the ride

 

 

[Storylady]

13 hours ago, JeffElizabeth said:

We are ready to start cruising but are concerned half empty ships will mean penny pinching and service cutbacks, but it sounds like you guys loved it. Thanks for reassuring us.

We were on the. Koningsdam in November for California Coastal Cruise. First week was 900 passengers and second week was 1500 passengers. We had a great time and the masks weren’t a problem. And we were wearing KN95 masks, same as much of the crew. 
 

Obviously, we didn’t wear them while eating or drinking. You don’t have to wear them outside. So if you like to cruise, go for it.

 

More annoying than masks was the long boarding line in San Diego. 
 

 

[HappyInVan]

7 hours ago, tntornadox said:

 

I completely agree with this sentiment. I'm triple vaxxed and think it's time we move on.

 

Is everyone triple-vax?

 

Will a third dose matter? An Israel doctor (age 45 and triple-vax) was infected in London with omicron. He returned and infected his colleague (age 69) also third-dose.

 

Be patient! Be safe!

 

4 hours ago, boze9999 said:

Make your own decision to go or not and accept and enjoy either way.

 

Let's leave it at that. Cruise if you can. The rest of us have alternatives. Its not a matter of 'fear'.

 

[ontheweb]

10 hours ago, OlsSalt said:

 

Wonder what the accurate numbers are measuring those who have moved on from 100% covid fears, to those who now see it as an acceptable travel risk.  

 

Cruise industry might be surprised if they remain locked into thinking only the strictest possible protocol is what passengers demand .I just don't know, but I think it is good to start hearing from those who are reluctant to cruise again because of the demands, mandates and hassles.  And are willing to risk the trade-offs. Who would survey for this?

 

Anyone who enjoyed watching the huge crowds at the recent final college football games appreciates large numbers of people can gather in closed settings, yell and cheer and appear not worry about being masked or social distancing.

 

So far no reports of a new wave of new cases from this recent football crowd free for alls.  (No fan of the Crimson Tide, but they were very impressive. So was Utah - lots of fun upsets.)

 

Science, data and time will be our friend.

The problem with a survey is the answer will really depend on how the question is worded.

[cruisemom42]

As has been said earlier, live and let live. You can't force people to feel comfortable cruising again, it's a point they have to get to naturally, weighing up the pros and cons for their own situation and acting accordingly.

 

There are certainly many casual cruisers who have been put off by the COVID debacle of last year. I personally have lost a significant amount of trust in the cruise lines that they are willing to be transparent and upfront about issues without being coerced to do so, which does not really inspire me with confidence -- and I have been cruising for almost 40 years.

 

Some ships are allowing people to be unmasked onboard, and yet they are also sailing about half full (or less, in many cases), so it cannot just be a matter of the onboard experience.

 

 

[deliver42]

Foiotball games are outside. I haven't seen any cruise line requiring masks outside.

[ontheweb]

43 minutes ago, deliver42 said:

Foiotball games are outside. I haven't seen any cruise line requiring masks outside.

Actually, some football games are indoors in domed stadiums. I have not seen masks required in them.

[FlaMariner]

17 minutes ago, ontheweb said:

Actually, some football games are indoors in domed stadiums. I have not seen masks required in them.

 

Correct as far as the Superdome in New Orleans.....inside stadium and no mask required.  All good!  Geaux Saints!

[nocl]

15 hours ago, OlsSalt said:

 

I believe they said those few on the NCL ship only "tested positive" for Covid, with the understanding there is yet to be even a reliable testing procedure.

PCR is very reliable with positive results, antigen more prone to false positives. The biggest weakness with testing is false negatives with antigen testing missing up to 50% of asymptomatic or presymptomatic cases.  Depending upon the exact stage PCR can also have false negatives atleast 20% of the time. 

[PACD_JG]

3 hours ago, cruisemom42 said:

Some ships are allowing people to be unmasked onboard, and yet they are also sailing about half full (or less, in many cases), so it cannot just be a matter of the onboard experience.

 

 

 

At the risk of having folks not answer any of my future cruise questions since my very first cruise is not until June 2022, I'll give you my perspective on why we won't cruise now, and I'm certainly not a rare bird out there so I'm sure my opinions resonate.

 

It's the testing.  Everything else I could tolerate if the price was right.  Vaccinations?  We're already vaxxed, so who cares.  Masking?  I actually hate it, but I have to wear it at work so that's not the deal breaker.  Closed ports?  Again, if the price is right I wouldn't worry about it.  But the testing...

 

Not worth the loss in money or time to have somebody pop up with a positive test.  And since you can't test until 2 days before the cruise...not worth it at all.  Add in a flight, and it just becomes a headache.  Especially since there's no guarantee you'd get your results in time from a place that tests for free.  And to pay for a test when I'm not sick - no.