How are Covid cases on NCL ships?

[podgeandrodge]

Only half read this thread, so sorry if I am repeating others, but isn't the way to look at it that we should compare what % of unvaccinated people in hospital out of all unvaccinated people vs. what % of vaccinated people out of all vaccinated people in hospital.  

 

anyone have that figure?

[BermudaBound2014]

15 minutes ago, podgeandrodge said:

Only half read this thread, so sorry if I am repeating others, but isn't the way to look at it that we should compare what % of unvaccinated people in hospital out of all unvaccinated people vs. what % of vaccinated people out of all vaccinated people in hospital.  

 

anyone have that figure?

 

I don't have the exact figure, but I estimate that approximately 65% of the population that would go to UofM hospital are vaccinated. With that, it's about the same proportion. However; proportion isn't my take away from the data.

 

My take away is that the best predictor of hospitalization with covid is having a comorbidity. It sucks for those with comorbidities, but the data is glaringly clear.

 

Scroll to the pictograph. It is updated weekly, so you have to save the image if you want to try to establish trends. I have been saving the images since last summer. The trend is undeniable. 

https://www.uofmhealth.org/coronavirus/covid19-numbers

 

Edited May 28, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[ace2542]

The cruise director on the bliss is in quarantine right now. No mention of ANY covid cases onboard by NCL though. Director is not working today I asked reception why and they said he is in quarantine.

[LaCal]

Cases are increasing on most cruise lines 

 

Just off our first Royal cruise and both the wife and I have Covid and we were in the very slim minority (10%) outta 4,000 people or so who wore masks onboard everywhere…..boggled my mind how people packed 10-12 deep into the elevators without a mask and tons of guests coughing and hacking all over the ship 

 

50+ people on our roll call now have Covid after the cruise and we had some Noro virus cases as well 

 

Even as careful as we tried to be it still got us.  Had to take our masks off to eat n drink and Boom was unlucky enough to have someone near us spread it 

 

Also I’ll be totally skipping the buffet on our next cruise….So many people scratching their noses, coughing into their hands and then picking up the tongs 😳😳…..To many other places we can eat instead of dealing w that 

Edited May 28, 2022 by LaCal

[Mira28]

20 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

If the goal of NCL is to reduce the amount of serious illness from covid, an equally important question cruise lines should be asking  before boarding is "Do you have a comorbidity?"  

Edited 20 hours ago by BermudaBound2014

If this question were to be asked before boarding, wouldn't a high percentage (if not the majority) of passengers be identified as having one or more comorbidities? (Age, obesity, cancer survivor, heart disease, diabetes...) If the question is asked, what would be the purpose? Should these people be barred? I can't imagine the result.

[BermudaBound2014]

25 minutes ago, Mira28 said:

If this question were to be asked before boarding, wouldn't a high percentage (if not the majority) of passengers be identified as having one or more comorbidities? (Age, obesity, cancer survivor, heart disease, diabetes...) If the question is asked, what would be the purpose? Should these people be barred? I can't imagine the result.

 

I agree. It is likely that a great deal of the cruising consumer base has a comorbidity (age and weight alone). I believe this is the obvious question which should be asked from a 'keep passengers safe' perspective, but I fully acknowledge it never will be asked from a business perspective. 

 

Cruise lines are losing billions of dollars each quarter right now with just the vaccine protocol as it removes about 35% of the population from their consumer base. Obviously there are additional reasons Johnny Public hasn't returned to cruising just yet. CCL sailed with 54% occupancy first quarter and said they hope to get to 70% second quarter. Their debt now is 35 Billion and hence the possible sell off Seabourn to raise money to pay interest debt. It's bleak from a business standpoint. People just aren't choosing to cruise in numbers large enough to make a profit. Some because the protocols are too invasive, and others because the protocols aren't strong enough. Cruise lines are in a no win situation.

 

The UofM data does indicate that if you have a comorbidity you are more likely to end up hospitalized with covid regardless of vaccination status. Therefore, passengers with a comorbidity who are here reading cruise critic may want to think the decision to cruise very carefully. There are many other vacation choices in the immediate future which don't involve using n95 mask, eating in your cabin, avoiding all shows, monitoring elevator usage  etc... 

 

And then you have people like myself who are not at all afraid of catching covid, but are very adverse to being locked up in a small cabin for days on end. There are too many stories here of people who seem to have taken excessive precautions, yet end up in isolation. I believe those thinking that they can control whether or not they get the virus thru hand washing and mask wearing are delusional. These measures provide a some safety, but if covid wants you, it will find you. 

Edited May 28, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[JGmf]

37 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I believe those thinking that they can control whether or not they get the virus thru hand washing and mask wearing are delusional. These measures provide a some safety, but if covid wants you, it will find you. 

 

Well said @BermudaBound2014.

 

At this point, if you are in a high risk, co-morbidity group you should probably think twice before cruising...or going anywhere you'll be in high occupancy spaces.  Thereafter, if you get it, no tears or complaints or admonishing NCL because they are not giving you the up-to-the-minute covid counts.

 

That said, the only meaningful way, I think, to reduce the covid risk on ships is to test at the pier, which, as a lot of you recall, was a logistical, horrendous experience for embarkation.  I did it this past December 2021....not something I'd want to do again. 

 

[wil e coyote]

4 hours ago, JGmf said:

That said, the only meaningful way, I think, to reduce the covid risk on ships is to test at the pier, which, as a lot of you recall, was a logistical, horrendous experience for embarkation.

I'm not even sure this would be effective. Numerous people have reported testing negative in the morning and positive later that same day. Unfortunately, by the time someone shows symptoms or can test positive, they have already been contagious for some period of time. More testing might reduce the risk of spreading, but it cannot eliminate it.

At this point in the adventure we're all living in, I think every group or person needs to make their own decision about whether they are OK with the risk of catching COVID while cruising (or flying, or watching a movie, or eating out, or grocery shopping), and then act accordingly. It would be lovely if ships (or anywhere, for that matter) were able to create a disease-free zone. But I don't think anyone can do that.

[EllieinNJ]

Does anyone remember the forms NCL wanted our doctors to fill out back in Feb./March 2020 to say that we were fit to cruise?  When I showed it to my MD he just laughed.

[redwave]

Anyone have more details on the following scenarios:

Random person tests positive for Covid and they were sitting next to you the night before in the theater, can ncl compel u to get tested even if your not showing any symptoms?

Random family sitting on the table next to you by breakfast tests positive , can they compel you to take test if u don’t have symptoms?

not finding answers to these questions…

or any similar scenarios, in case there’s a resource with answers to qs like this. Ty

 

[Quencups]

On 5/28/2022 at 7:36 AM, LaCal said:

Cases are increasing on most cruise lines 

 

Just off our first Royal cruise and both the wife and I have Covid and we were in the very slim minority (10%) outta 4,000 people or so who wore masks onboard everywhere…..boggled my mind how people packed 10-12 deep into the elevators without a mask and tons of guests coughing and hacking all over the ship 

 

50+ people on our roll call now have Covid after the cruise and we had some Noro virus cases as well 

 

Even as careful as we tried to be it still got us.  Had to take our masks off to eat n drink and Boom was unlucky enough to have someone near us spread it 

 

Also I’ll be totally skipping the buffet on our next cruise….So many people scratching their noses, coughing into their hands and then picking up the tongs 😳😳…..To many other places we can eat instead of dealing w that 

How about the ones who eat food off their plates in the buffet line, lick their fingers, wipe them on their clothes and then use the serving utensils? Sickening that people are so inconsiderate after all we have been through with this pandemic. 

[insidecabin]

On 5/28/2022 at 1:18 AM, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

I don't have the exact figure, but I estimate that approximately 65% of the population that would go to UofM hospital are vaccinated. With that, it's about the same proportion. However; proportion isn't my take away from the data.

 

My take away is that the best predictor of hospitalization with covid is having a comorbidity. It sucks for those with comorbidities, but the data is glaringly clear.

 

Scroll to the pictograph. It is updated weekly, so you have to save the image if you want to try to establish trends. I have been saving the images since last summer. The trend is undeniable. 

https://www.uofmhealth.org/coronavirus/covid19-numbers

 

Comorbidity conditions have always been a significant  factor with serious illness and death.

 

This also coralates with age, as older people tend to have more  chronic illness.

 

The other thing to careful with is vaccination coverage as it tends not to have even distribution, the vulnerable groups(age, underlying condition) got vaccinated early and were more open to get jabbed so have higher rates than some later groups.

 

As I have said before the vaccinated group is likely 20 times the size of the unvaccinated group for those most likely to get ill.

If comorbidity was a more dominant factor than vaccinated status the hospitalized numbers would be very different.(no breakdown of age) due to the docent cohort sizes

 

One thing vaccination has done is reduce significantly  the risks of some comorbidity  conditions like obesity.

 

One issue is the vaccines don't add protection to the mucus immune system, the entry point of the virus, hence many get cold like symptoms and become infectious shedding virus without getting serious illness.

Cases are climbing where people never recover fully recover for months even when initial symptoms were mild.

 

Back to the topic.

Just off Getaway 30% capacity with no restrictions or masking.

 

very few signs of covid the coughing increased only a little much like regular cruises.

 

No reports or rumours of cases  even after the USA fly home testing.

 

 

 

 

[Markanddonna]

From my experience on a recent 11 night TA and reading the posts on CC, I believe that people on a seven day cruise or less will likely not see or hear about many COVID cases as they seem to be popping up around day six. By then, you are ready to disembark and the only way we would know is if the positive cases reported it on their roll call or CC boards. The coughing starts to percolate around day 6 and those who are coughing tell others "oh, that's my seasonal allergy (which didn't flare up for the first five or six days.)  Hmmmm

[BermudaBound2014]

3 hours ago, insidecabin said:

Comorbidity conditions have always been a significant  factor with serious illness and death.

 

Agreed. Although I might change your words slightly to read; Comorbidity conditions have always been the single most significant factor with serious illness and death.

 

If cruise ships are trying to keep serious covid illness off ships, comorbidity as a variable can not be ignored. Of course, it will be ignored, but that's the nature of business.

 

 

3 hours ago, insidecabin said:

Just off Getaway 30% capacity with no restrictions or masking.

 

I'm glad you had a enjoyable covid free experience. I would expect less covid quarantines with a ship sailing at 30% capacity. Unfortunately, those numbers are just not sustainable :(.

 

 

1 hour ago, Markanddonna said:

From my experience on a recent 11 night TA and reading the posts on CC, I believe that people on a seven day cruise or less will likely not see or hear about many COVID cases as they seem to be popping up around day six.

 

Totally agreed. It seems to me that length of cruise and population density are the two biggest variables correlated to higher reports of mandatory quarantine. It makes sense. Glad you had a nice cruise!

[Quencups]

15 hours ago, Markanddonna said:

From my experience on a recent 11 night TA and reading the posts on CC, I believe that people on a seven day cruise or less will likely not see or hear about many COVID cases as they seem to be popping up around day six. By then, you are ready to disembark and the only way we would know is if the positive cases reported it on their roll call or CC boards. The coughing starts to percolate around day 6 and those who are coughing tell others "oh, that's my seasonal allergy (which didn't flare up for the first five or six days.)  Hmmmm

Exactly 

[MidCitiesMan]

On 5/29/2022 at 11:14 PM, redwave said:

Anyone have more details on the following scenarios:

Random person tests positive for Covid and they were sitting next to you the night before in the theater, can ncl compel u to get tested even if your not showing any symptoms?

Random family sitting on the table next to you by breakfast tests positive , can they compel you to take test if u don’t have symptoms?

not finding answers to these questions…

or any similar scenarios, in case there’s a resource with answers to qs like this. Ty

 

Honestly I think they want to discourage you from getting tested, to keep their official numbers low. As far as I can tell, you have to both ask for it and pay the $149 for them to test you. 

[ace2542]

3 hours ago, MidCitiesMan said:

Honestly I think they want to discourage you from getting tested, to keep their official numbers low. As far as I can tell, you have to both ask for it and pay the $149 for them to test you. 

The word Covid wasn't even mentioned on the Bliss during our trip.

[CTfamilycruiser]

6 hours ago, MidCitiesMan said:

Honestly I think they want to discourage you from getting tested, to keep their official numbers low. As far as I can tell, you have to both ask for it and pay the $149 for them to test you. 

I totally agree. I don't think you will find an official answer to the original question, but as a practical matter I would highly doubt they will ask or force you to be tested. On our recent 14 day TA on the Getaway, after the first few sea days there were passengers coughing constantly all over the ship. In the dinning rooms, the theater, and on the shore excursions there were tons of people coughing and sneezing and going about their normal routines.

I think NCL (and probably all the cruise lines) want to pretend there is not COVID on their ships and prefer that you continue to buy drinks and gamble in the casino.

After being in the small minority of passengers wearing a mask and avoiding crowded spaces, I tested positive for COVID the day after we got back. I feel lucky I lasted the entire cruise given how many people were sick all around us.

 

[Markanddonna]

1 hour ago, CTfamilycruiser said:

I totally agree. I don't think you will find an official answer to the original question, but as a practical matter I would highly doubt they will ask or force you to be tested. On our recent 14 day TA on the Getaway, after the first few sea days there were passengers coughing constantly all over the ship. In the dinning rooms, the theater, and on the shore excursions there were tons of people coughing and sneezing and going about their normal routines.

I think NCL (and probably all the cruise lines) want to pretend there is not COVID on their ships and prefer that you continue to buy drinks and gamble in the casino.

After being in the small minority of passengers wearing a mask and avoiding crowded spaces, I tested positive for COVID the day after we got back. I feel lucky I lasted the entire cruise given how many people were sick all around us.

 

I wrote a post on this topic, suggesting that on any cruise, day 6 would be the day that coughing starts to spike and be very noticeable. Then, on a seven day cruise, many people will disembark with COVID that shows up anywhere from day 6 to when you arrive back home. CC moved it from "Ask a Cruise Question" to the RCCL board. "The rain falls on the righteous and the unrighteous."  This also applies to COVID: the masked and the unmasked, the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. It doesn't seem to matter anymore!

[Chris4205]

Information in this thread has been very helpful. So sorry to everyone who has gotten sick and I hope you all feel better soon.  Was thinking of going on the Pearl on June 24th but am afraid due to what I am reading.  Tough call.

Edited May 31, 2022 by Chris4205
Wrong date

[Crazy planning mom]

8 hours ago, Markanddonna said:

I wrote a post on this topic, suggesting that on any cruise, day 6 would be the day that coughing starts to spike and be very noticeable. Then, on a seven day cruise, many people will disembark with COVID that shows up anywhere from day 6 to when you arrive back home. CC moved it from "Ask a Cruise Question" to the RCCL board. "The rain falls on the righteous and the unrighteous."  This also applies to COVID: the masked and the unmasked, the vaccinated and the unvaccinated. It doesn't seem to matter anymore!

So, if day 6 is when the coughing starts to spike, when do you think people are being infected and where?  Embarkation?  The buffet?  Have a bucket list cruise booked for later this year and I would like to at least enjoy some or all of the ports before testing positive.

[CrazyTrain2]

19 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

So, if day 6 is when the coughing starts to spike, when do you think people are being infected and where?  Embarkation?  The buffet?  Have a bucket list cruise booked for later this year and I would like to at least enjoy some or all of the ports before testing positive.

I think people are being exposed from day 1.  With 3000+ on board (passengers and crew) - false negatives, exposed but not yet showing positive on a test, interactions leading up to the ship - the ship leaves port carrying many that will be spreading virus from the crew's "Welcome Aboard".  From that point forward, everyone is essentially passing close contacts - bars, clubs, dining, limbo contests on the Lido deck, you name it.  It takes 3-6 days post exposure for symptoms to appear and even then the symptoms can easily be mistaken for something less serious while passengers continue with their onboard activities.  Of course the Cruise safe guidelines make it less desirable to self report - nobody wants to quarantine on their vacation even if it is the right thing to do.  So passengers are going to hold out rather than report on the first sniffle - human nature.

 

As far as later this year, I think this wave will be over in 5-7 weeks.  We are all going to get exposed to BA2.121 or a close subvariant over the next few months - cruising or not.  I'm sailing in late October and plan on boosting in late September.  My ideal situation is Moderna or Pfizer will have approval on the Omicron variant booster by then.  If not, then sign me up for the kissing booth at an early Octoberfest.

[meglet]

52 minutes ago, Crazy planning mom said:

So, if day 6 is when the coughing starts to spike, when do you think people are being infected and where?  Embarkation?  The buffet?  Have a bucket list cruise booked for later this year and I would like to at least enjoy some or all of the ports before testing positive.

I was on Pearl 4/15. Day 6 I started with the cough. Day after disembarkation I had deep coughing, sore throat. Long story short, any time pre Covid phenomena I went through a huge change in temp and humidity,  I'd get an upper respiratory infection being a smoker with COPD. Long story short, 6 negative Covid tests and 4 weeks later, got bronchitis from 78 and humid in Bermuda to 38 in Bar Harbor. Maybe that accounts for some of the symptoms you're seeing on the Pearl.

[Markanddonna]

18 minutes ago, CrazyTrain2 said:

I think people are being exposed from day 1.  With 3000+ on board (passengers and crew) - false negatives, exposed but not yet showing positive on a test, interactions leading up to the ship - the ship leaves port carrying many that will be spreading virus from the crew's "Welcome Aboard".  From that point forward, everyone is essentially passing close contacts - bars, clubs, dining, limbo contests on the Lido deck, you name it.  It takes 3-6 days post exposure for symptoms to appear and even then the symptoms can easily be mistaken for something less serious while passengers continue with their onboard activities.  Of course the Cruise safe guidelines make it less desirable to self report - nobody wants to quarantine on their vacation even if it is the right thing to do.  So passengers are going to hold out rather than report on the first sniffle - human nature.

 

As far as later this year, I think this wave will be over in 5-7 weeks.  We are all going to get exposed to BA2.121 or a close subvariant over the next few months - cruising or not.  I'm sailing in late October and plan on boosting in late September.  My ideal situation is Moderna or Pfizer will have approval on the Omicron variant booster by then.  If not, then sign me up for the kissing booth at an early Octoberfest.

I think you described the scenario of typical Covid exposure. Many probably got it in the bigger cities they visited for a few days precruise and on planes. Ours was NYC. I flew in the day of the cruise which I have never risked before. Didn't set foot in the city.

 

I also believe this recent spike will improve this summer. In the meantime, I would suggest cruisers stay in their travel circle, not share tables, don't get caught on a crowded dance floor, etc.

 We had a sixteen day trip and came back healthy.  We only masked up on buses, but we did avoid crowds. Also, bring your kit of medicines, just in case. 

 

[mking8288]

35 minutes ago, Markanddonna said:

I think you described the scenario of (how some possibly got) Covid exposure. (Some) probably got it in the bigger cities they visited for a few days pre-cruise and on planes. Ours was NYC ... Didn't set foot in the city.Also, bring your kit of medicines, just in case. 

 

Perhaps, that's how likely some were exposed and positivity #'s on an upward curve - the quasi-official numbers from this Memorial holiday weekend aren't in yet, masked by many self-testing at home, apparently, under the public health/CDC radars.  We surely did not catch anything in NYC, our hometown - both the PCR and Antigen Rapid test results done 2 days prior to our Bermuda cruise were negative and up until day 5 to day 6, after we arrived into the islands (the Joy skipped Norfolk, VA) - everyone in our group was fine ... (or, at least, asymptomatic for 4 out of 6 that eventually tested from negative to positive, like domino effects).  6 of us staying in 2 "suites" - all but 2 in the 2nd. suite were exposed eventually, probably from being close contacts.  

 

Well, all 4 of us recovered fine and at the end of 2 weeks of self-isolation, our Antigen Rapid tests are now all negative ...  Haha, we can bravely with boosted immunity - book a new cruise, last minute for this weekend and sail again - and get a new Bermuda TA (ignore the questions - since the test results will be negative) and complete online check-in.  Seriously, just kidding on that last sentence - point being that, there are all sorts of loopholes in the current screening process.  Going to take a brief pause, road trip to Ontario, Canada later next month - ArriveCan is much easier to deal with.