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43 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I do realize that the quarterlies should include specifics, but I am hoping for some type of leak before then as the results will influence if I buy long with RCL. 

It's really though to know when to catch a falling knife.

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43 minutes ago, ALWAYS CRUZIN said:

I own a good amount of Royal and Carnival. So far I have lost over $30,000.00 I really hope it turns around. Will it stay above water till November? 

Do you get anything extra for having above the 100 shares or is that all you get regardless of how much you own?

 

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Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

It's really though to know when to catch a falling knife.

 

Story of my life. I mentioned that I prematurely closed all my shorts at $60 and now it's trading $35. Coulda, Shoulda, Woulda 😄 

 

Just glad I didn't go long at $40. This thing still has room to drop. 

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2 minutes ago, like2cruise99 said:

Do you get anything extra for having above the 100 shares or is that all you get regardless of how much you own?

 

 

That's all you get.

 

And, just a FYI, Carnival appears to have added a caveat to their stock OBC stating that you can only get the OBC if the price isn't discounted. People are reporting being turned down because their cruise price was so low. It's not RCL, but....

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2 hours ago, NightOne said:

 

 

So at what price are you a buyer?

 

You mentioned that you liquidated your short positions and might go long at <$40

 

Any reasonable threat of Chapter 11 and leaving the shareholders holding zero? (in your opinion)

 

Thoughts?

I'm waiting for $25 to buy again and hold on back to highs. Last time I sold at $50 and should have waited.

It's not just the economy... Covid numbers are way up across the country. Those of us who stayed safe and never got it are catching it now. No masks, people not getting boosted, workers with minor symptoms not testing but having it and spreading it, etc. Everyone thought it was over but it's not. Cruises will have to go back to lower passenger counts again and it's gonna kill their bottom line.

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21 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

That's all you get.

 

And, just a FYI, Carnival appears to have added a caveat to their stock OBC stating that you can only get the OBC if the price isn't discounted. People are reporting being turned down because their cruise price was so low. It's not RCL, but....

I was turned down for a HAL OBC. Of course it was a free cruise, so that's fine. I just thought it would work, since it had always worked in the past.

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13 minutes ago, fredmdcruisers said:

I'm waiting for $25 to buy again and hold on back to highs. Last time I sold at $50 and should have waited.

It's not just the economy... Covid numbers are way up across the country. Those of us who stayed safe and never got it are catching it now. No masks, people not getting boosted, workers with minor symptoms not testing but having it and spreading it, etc. Everyone thought it was over but it's not. Cruises will have to go back to lower passenger counts again and it's gonna kill their bottom line.

 

Fauci is double vaxxed and double boosted and runs around in a mask all the time ... and he now has ... wait for it ... Covid-19

 

This thing is NEVER going to be over. Covid is with us for a very long time. The good news is that it appears to be getting even more mild with every new variant/wave.

 

I still think about the question: Where would we be now if we had done absolutely nothing at the beginning of Covid and just ignored it. Would we have more or less deaths? More or less variants? Would it still be among us?

 

 

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6 minutes ago, NightOne said:

 

Fauci is double vaxxed and double boosted and runs around in a mask all the time ... and he now has ... wait for it ... Covid-19

 

This thing is NEVER going to be over. Covid is with us for a very long time. The good news is that it appears to be getting even more mild with every new variant/wave.

 

I still think about the question: Where would we be now if we had done absolutely nothing at the beginning of Covid and just ignored it. Would we have more or less deaths? More or less variants? Would it still be among us?

 

 

It's become what we have to live with, just like many other viruses.  Problem is, until the Gov tells people so, they won't believe it. 

 

We have 100 shares that we bought last year and we're just sitting on it, like our entire portfolio (other than some shifting of some money).  It will all recover at some point.  

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With stockholders equity now down to $4B (and debt up to $20B+) after losing $1B+ in each of the past two quarters RCL may soon be forced  to shore up the balance sheet by issuing a lot of new equity.  Should have done so earlier this year when stock was trading at $90, or a month ago at $60, or even a week ago at $50.  Now if forced to sell at $35 it would be extremely dilutive and painful.  Unfortunately, faced with continuing losses and an uncertain economy Liberty may have no choice other than to do whatever it takes to keep creditors at bay.  Also, wouldn't be surprised if at least one of CCL, NCLH and RCL is sold this year..   

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2 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

What are your thoughts?

 

I know less than nothing about stocks and am only interested personally.

 

I read all the most recent 10-Qs a few weeks ago and felt like the strength was NCLH, RCL, and then CCL. If my memory serves me I believe all 3 said they could operate for the next 12 months with what they have now. Clearly they will all be looking to restructure debt in the future which is going to be a problem unless the economy turns around. 14B NCLH, 23B RCL, and 36B CCL of debt is a LOT of debt with rising interest rates and rising COGS.

 

I'm not trying to play the market. I am looking for long term investments. I don't see cruising ending anytime soon so I have confidence that they will survive long term.

 

I'm just trying to make sure I don't pull the trigger and start out 20-30% in the hole. If RCL gets in the 20s I am buying no matter what. I just don't want to pull the trigger in the 30s and see it head down to the 20s right away.

 

 

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10 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

  Also, wouldn't be surprised if at least one of CCL, NCLH and RCL is sold this year..   

 

Me either. I think it would be NCLH.

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12 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

With stockholders equity now down to $4B (and debt up to $20B+) after losing $1B+ in each of the past two quarters RCL may soon be forced  to shore up the balance sheet by issuing a lot of new equity.  Should have done so earlier this year when stock was trading at $90, or a month ago at $60, or even a week ago at $50.  Now if forced to sell at $35 it would be extremely dilutive and painful.  Unfortunately, faced with continuing losses and an uncertain economy Liberty may have no choice other than to do whatever it takes to keep creditors at bay.  Also, wouldn't be surprised if at least one of CCL, NCLH and RCL is sold this year..   

 

Great post by the way.

 

CCL is considered the weakest of these 3. I wonder if merging 2 cruise lines makes sense.

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I should also add that when I see CEOs leaving (regardless of what they say) it usually means something bad is coming.

 

Richard Fain was around  33 years at RCL and is leaving

 

Arnold Donald was around for 9 years at CCL and is leaving

 

Frank Del Rio has been at the helm 7 years and appears to be going strong but if I see a change there I would also be very concerned.

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2 minutes ago, exm said:

 

CCL is considered the weakest of these 3. I wonder if merging 2 cruise lines makes sense.

 

Being the biggest might not be the best thing in these circumstances

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13 minutes ago, exm said:

 

Great post by the way.

 

CCL is considered the weakest of these 3. I wonder if merging 2 cruise lines makes sense.

 

Interestingly, MSC has no debt and is the strongest player financially with lots of aspiration. While MSC cruises is losing tons of cash, MSC Shipping (the largest shipping container company in the world) is cash flush and momma and daddy are bailing out their baby.

 

I believe NCLH is the weakest of the three. If only by size. It is very small comparatively and prime for a takeover. See above (obviously pure speculation on my part).

 

I foresee CCL just piecing themselves out. First they sell Seabourn. Next Costa? Or maybe HAL? How about Princess? Or P&O?? All could be parted out if there were buyers. The Saudi Sovereignty already has a financial interest in CCL. 

 

Regarding leadership: NCL's Del Rio isn't going anywhere. Remember, he already lead Renaissance cruises thru bankruptcy. During Covid he DOUBLED HIS PAY, even though shareholders voted against it. 

 

"In a year in which Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings Ltd. lost $4 billion and employee salaries were cut by 20% as the cruise operator struggled to deal COVID-19-related shutdowns, Chief Executive Frank Del Rio’s total pay more than doubled to over $36 million" https://www.marketwatch.com/story/norwegian-cruise-ceos-total-pay-more-than-doubles-to-over-36-million-during-year-of-covid-11617816363

 

 

I'm not sure if I've said this in this forum, but I have used the three bear analogy.

CCL is too big

NCLH is too small

RCL maybe just right.

 

 

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imo all three cruise lines could be attractive targets for private equity or a sovereign wealth fund.  The underlying cruise business remains sound and once (hopefully) covid recedes they can go back to minting money like it was 2019.  The problem is their balance sheets are in tatters requiring a sizeable chunk of cash flow to be dedicated to debt service.  A patient buyer could wait a couple of quarters while operating losses chip away at capital and drive their debt to below par.  They could then scoop up the debt cheap and dictate terms to stockholders.
 

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I hope that all three survive.  That said, I could see Carnival especially selling off divisions to make that happen.  Would RCL be able to make anything meaningful from the sale of Celebrity?

 

Also, would another line or carrier have any interest in acquiring some or all of these assets? Private equity would need to cut cut cut to make these things profitable.  And their structures are logistically a headache.  Perhaps a Saudi sovereign wealth fund, maybe a pension group.  

 

Virgin seems to me like the one most likely not to make it through this… I recognize it isn’t the same thing, but it is still worth stating.

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8 hours ago, NightOne said:

I should also add that when I see CEOs leaving (regardless of what they say) it usually means something bad is coming.

 

Richard Fain was around  33 years at RCL and is leaving

 

Arnold Donald was around for 9 years at CCL and is leaving

 

Frank Del Rio has been at the helm 7 years and appears to be going strong but if I see a change there I would also be very concerned.

 

On the other hand, I'll take their word for it.  Fain has been working for awhile, if he doesn't retire now, when can he?

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16 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

I am hoping for some type of leak before then as the results will influence if I buy long with RCL. 

It won't help much, but here what the prices were for the other Crystal ships:

 

The two Crystal Cruises cruise ships that remained after the sale of Crystal Endeavour to Silverseas, Crystal Symphony and Crystal Serenity, have been sold to unknown buyers. Both ships sold well above estimate. 

 

Considering their age, the ships did exceedingly well in the auction. With 103 Million paid for Crystal Serenity, and 25 Million for Crystal Symphony, it is more than likely both vessels will be sailing with guests again soon. 

 

Two famous cruise ships that had been under arrest for over four months have been sold off to an undisclosed buyer. The 2003-built Crystal Serenity, valued at 37.5 Million USD, sold for nearly triple that amount at 103 Million USD.

Crystal Symphony, built in 1996, also sold above the estimated 20 Million USD, instead selling for 25 Million USD. 

 

Considering the age of the vessels, the prices paid are well above analyst expectations. However, both ships have been in immaculate condition throughout their time with Crystal Cruises and have long been a favorite for Crystal’s guests.

 

The buyer of both vessels is undisclosed, with only two shell companies listed as buyers, CSE Ltd. standing for Crystal Serenity and CDE Ltd. for Crystal Symphony.

Richard Horton, who represented the Crystal Serenity and Crystal Symphony’s secured financier, confirmed the news to The Tribune:

 

“For the Serenity, the total amount paid for the vessel was $103m. The buyer was a company called CDE Ltd. For the Symphony, the amount agreed was $25m for the vessel, and the purchaser’s name was CSY Ltd.”

 

The Tribune further speculates that the buyer would be a London, UK-based entity. However, those rumors have not been confirmed. Earlier this year, the most prominent candidate to purchase both ships was Manfredi Lefebvre d’Ovidio, the former owner of Silverseas. 

 

Since the sale was made known, both the 51,044 gross ton Crystal Symphony and the 68,870 gross ton Crystal Serenity have taken to sea for the first time since February. Both are sailing close to the Bahamas in what is likely a test sailing for the new owners.

 

Although selling the ocean-going vessels that belonged to Crystal Cruises is a step in the right direction, the further process of selling all of the cruise line’s assets could take months, with sorting out who gets paid any financial compensation a process that could take months or even years. 

 

As Cruise Hive reported, Crystal Endeavor has already been sold, with Royal Caribbean Group cruise line Silverseas being the likely buyer, although neither Royal Caribbean nor Silverseas has confirmed the purchase.

 

This leaves the company’s river cruise ships that were operating in Europe. These are still for sale, with heavy interest from several parties. The most valuable assets, such as marketing databases from Crystal Cruises, were not covered in the sale of the ships and will likely attract a lot of attention when they are finally sold.

 

Two Former Crystal Cruises Ships Have Been Sold (cruisehive.com)

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@Biker19 Thanks. I saw this. Thought it interesting that there were shell companies who purchased. I looked into both briefly yesterday. A scaffolding co and a tech company. I also thought the price discrepancy huge between the two. The Crystal Endeavor was the highest valued ship of the three so it will be interesting if RCL paid more or less than the Serenity sale. 

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I don't care if any or all three of the majors go belly up or survive. I am only a customer, not an investor in these companies. If they go belly up someone will buy up the assets on the cheap and cruising will go on. It will likely be different, but cruising will go on. Now, I have owned RCL stock in the past, in 2020, but as a speculation not as an investment. Like going to the casino but without the fun. At the current price and all the 'sky is falling' commentary out there my spec senses are starting to tingle again for RCL. Not quite at the March 2020 level yet but this might be getting interesting. We'll see.

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Well, the CEO's have exhausted the "future bookings are back to normal or better" mantra (now indications are that discounting will be predominant to get passengers into next year) as well as this summer season looking great (also discounted late is reported).  Heavy late discounting is taking place to add passengers to ships, FCC's are being used up, so late bookings will eat into the free cash flow line-of-credit from customer deposits.

 

Really through no fault of their own, cruise lines have just been hit with one rogue wave after another, too long now to list, and restored capacities and new ships ahead, the supply (and cost) simply exceeds the demand (and willing to pay price).  Pricing now is updated for the ridiculous increase in airfare and, in some cases, port area hotels trying to make back losses in a narrower time period.

 

The ships, especially the newer ones, will still sail, it just doesn't appear under the current public ownership structure for the big 3.  It is not reasonable to expect a vulture buyer or group to pay anything at all to shareholders and further likely to ask the debt holders for either huge interest rate and payment rescheduling concessions or significantly reduced negotiated payoffs.

 

MSC is not buying any of these lines and has their own ship development plans as well as vertical expansion plans for shipping. 

 

They are however, flush with cash and capital, expanding on a SPREE ~

 

their control of ports, buying Bollore Groups African ports for container terminals (47 African countries, 16 container terminals) for $6.4B and planning to buy, in a cash deal, Global Ports Holding, the worlds largest cruise port operator (26 ports, 14 countries) and 5,400 port calls in the Mediterranean, Europe, Caribbean and Asia. 

 

~ their control of transportation, they also acquired the Torrejon railway and terminal in Spain for its Medway transportation hub from Spain to the Iberian peninsula and

 

~ more shipping strength, the Brazilian shipping freight transportation company (2/3rds) Log-In Logistica.

 

~ as a hedge to shipping backlog, they joined Lufthansa in making a joint bid for Italian ITA Airways for its cargo and passenger capabilities.

 

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14 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

imo all three cruise lines could be attractive targets for private equity or a sovereign wealth fund.  The underlying cruise business remains sound and once (hopefully) covid recedes they can go back to minting money like it was 2019.  The problem is their balance sheets are in tatters requiring a sizeable chunk of cash flow to be dedicated to debt service.  A patient buyer could wait a couple of quarters while operating losses chip away at capital and drive their debt to below par.  They could then scoop up the debt cheap and dictate terms to stockholders.
 

When did these companies ever mint money?   Am I missing some history here?  

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18 hours ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

Thank you. I do realize that the quarterlies should include specifics, but I am hoping for some type of leak before then as the results will influence if I buy long with RCL. 

And that is why you probably won’t have that inside information.  I’m sure those in the know are not wishing to do jail tIme for leaking inside info.  

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6 minutes ago, topnole said:

And that is why you probably won’t have that inside information.  I’m sure those in the know are not wishing to do jail tIme for leaking inside info.  

 

It's not that dramatic. Lots of purchase/sale information is disclosed before the quarterlies. I wouldn't be surprised if more details of this emerge.

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