RCL Stock

[grandgeezer]

2 hours ago, topnole said:

History doesn’t predict future stock performance.  Go ahead buying and selling.  Research shows buying and holding leads to better performance.  So even those who make money trading are likely doing worse than they would if they just bought and let it grow.  But they feel better thinking they are so smart to be able to beat the market.  😂😂😂

Are these the same people who said they bought at $6, way back when, and still have them even though it reached $135? Or more recently, the ones that bought at $19 and didn’t sell at $90+?
No body beats the market all the time, it’s like baseball players who only get hits three out of ten times at bat, but still makes millions of dollars.

Trading has worked really well for me, able to retire at 55, haven’t paid a penny of interest since 1984, and have more money than we’ll ever spend, even with today’s economy.

[Baron Barracuda]

3 hours ago, topnole said:

Institutionalism is a huge problem in the analyst industry (among many other rating agencies).  They mostly parrot each other and the information is always old by definition. It’s like college sports recruiting agencies.  One of the big ones rates a player 98 and a 5 star and most of the others just copy or closely copy that rating.  Meanwhile, some future NFL star goes unrated at a smaller school because half the analysts don’t do their work and just copy each other.  Sometimes a Bama spots them and makes an offer and magically they improve to a 4 star player overnight.  It’s all circular.  
 

Same thing happens in the investment community.  Don’t invest based on an analysts forecast.  You think 5% of them ever even visited one part of the business they are covering?   They mostly just take others material and tweak it slightly (just like the comedians on the ships).  
 

Do your own homework and study their financials, public disclosures, and products.  

Good analysts generate lots of revenue for their firms.  Those who do the work and add value are well compensated.  Institutional clients won't pay for research that merely parrots the street consensus so those "analysts" don't last long.   A big piece of every analysts job is to regularly visit the companies they follow to view its operations first-hand and ferret out non-public information.  Good luck trying to get an edge simply by reading 10k's and press releases.

[topnole]

1 hour ago, grandgeezer said:

Are these the same people who said they bought at $6, way back when, and still have them even though it reached $135? Or more recently, the ones that bought at $19 and didn’t sell at $90+?
No body beats the market all the time, it’s like baseball players who only get hits three out of ten times at bat, but still makes millions of dollars.

Trading has worked really well for me, able to retire at 55, haven’t paid a penny of interest since 1984, and have more money than we’ll ever spend, even with today’s economy.

Haaa. I didn’t buy Royal stock before Covid and I would only ever buy it as a pure gamble now.  Not a good investment now and wasn’t before IMO.  And investing doesn’t involve one stock. But if you use that analogy, how would Google, or msft, or apple be working for the long term investor?  And the sucker that sold when something was up 30% left a lot on the table when they split, then double, etc., etc.  
 

Sure trading can bring big gains.  But I know lots of smart people that lost their butts trying to short term trade.  I don’t know anyone who invested in the market (and left it there for decades) and lost.  No one.  
 

Sure, some people get lucky trading.  But no one honestly systematically beats the market by much in the long run.  Of course no one lives for the long run so some will win and some will lose (and sometimes big time).  I know a person who knows zero about investing and zero about one of the companies he invested in.  He made a fortune.  Doesn’t make him smart or smarter then the market.  Just lucky.  
 

I’ve also done very will investing.  None of it from short term trading.  But keep at it if it works for you.  

[At Sea At Peace]

4 hours ago, fredmdcruisers said:

Who listens to guy on cc who tries to sound knowledgeable?

 

The ultimate compliment accepted.  😉

 

The post of the historical performance of an OP referenced Wells Fargo advisor was totally fact-based.  Not trying to sound logical in presenting hard, cold facts; i.e., nothing personally imparted.  Simply raw data.

 

Like some more on such?  In 2021 the same WF team advised the 'tips' that follow.  It's raw data, so please don't infer an attempt to sound knowledgeable.  

 

https://www.yahoo.com/video/wells-fargo-predicts-over-40-014307515.html

 

 

 

[topnole]

36 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Good analysts generate lots of revenue for their firms.  Those who do the work and add value are well compensated.  Institutional clients won't pay for research that merely parrots the street consensus so those "analysts" don't last long.   A big piece of every analysts job is to regularly visit the companies they follow to view its operations first-hand and ferret out non-public information.  Good luck trying to get an edge simply by reading 10k's and press releases.

And how many of these well paid analysts predicted the recent huge declines before they happened (not in general but with with actionable price targets).  How about in 2006/7?  How about in 2000/1? Few if any.  Their analysis is almost always a day late and a dollar short.  Sure, these folks make good money.  So do some weathermen/women.  Doesn’t mean they aren’t wrong all the time.  
 

As I said in my prior posts, you get an edge by understanding the products and business  (ie understand their strategy, business models, and external environment).  It isn’t that hard though to pick top companies in attractive industries and buy and hold.  
 

Trading is just gambling.  Sure you can win.  But you will win if you invest in the market long run.  Prove me wrong please?   I don’t think you will find any legitimate research that shows otherwise.  

[BermudaBound2014]

I haven't seen anyone giving or taking advice here. Just general discussion. It's unfortunate that the stocks are currently so news worthy. It was much more fun when we all just sat back and watched our shares grow.

 

As far as wells fargo goes, in this case they are 100% correct, but likely late to the table. I started shorting this time last year and it's been very lucrative. How much longer shorting will be the correct play is the million dollar question.

 

 

[JCDCA]

On 6/18/2022 at 7:07 PM, Big_G said:

 

I don't share stock advice.

Haha ok.  That speaks volumes.  

[Big_G]

36 minutes ago, JCDCA said:

Haha ok.  That speaks volumes.  

 

[mpk]

16 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said:

There clearly isn't a standard for who to trust as investment advisors.  If you look at some of the names in the articles that are referenced in such posts, go back and look at the track record since the pandemic, you get a more informed basis for assessing whether you would follow such guidance "with your own money."  Note, a lot of these 'experts' are not using their own money, it's all OPM, and most have moved to a % of assets / investments under management and not % performance.  🧐

 

I agree.  Wall Street Journal used to compare monkeys throwing darts with a rotating panel of three experts.  The monkeys consistently outdid the "experts."  The paper discountinued the series, presumably because the results were always the same.

 

There are no experts on the market.

[topnole]

8 hours ago, mpk said:

 

I agree.  Wall Street Journal used to compare monkeys throwing darts with a rotating panel of three experts.  The monkeys consistently outdid the "experts."  The paper discountinued the series, presumably because the results were always the same.

 

There are no experts on the market.

I remember this well.  WSJ was required reading in all of my finance classes as an undergraduate student.  That series was

gold for those teaching portfolio theory classes.  

[Biker19]

Royal Caribbean Group hired News Corp. veteran Dana Ritzcovan in the newly created role of EVP and chief people and outreach officer.

 

She'll oversee human resources; environmental, social and corporate governance; and corporate affairs, reporting directly to CEO Jason Liberty.

 

Consolidates reporting structure

Amy Alexy, SVP and chief HR officer; Silvia Garrigo, SVP and chief ESG officer; and Donna Hrinak, SVP corporate affairs; will all report to Ritzcovan, who starts July 5.

 

This continues Liberty's efforts to streamline and consolidate the reporting structure at Royal Caribbean Group. His predecessor, Richard Fain, had a considerable number of direct reports. 

 

Dana Ritzcovan's background

For the past four years, Ritzcovan served as chief HR officer and EVP at Rupert Murdoch's News Corp., responsible for HR, ESG strategy and communications for its business units including Dow Jones and brands like The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s and MarketWatch; New York Post, The Sun, Realtor.com, Harper Collins Publishers and others.

 

Previously Ritzcovan was group managing director, head of HR for both Global Wealth Management and for the Americas region at UBS. Prior to that, she was chief operating officer for the strategy, digital and client segmentation division of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management. Earlier senior and executive-level HR roles were at other financial services companies, including Navigators Group and Credit Suisse Asset Management Americas.

 

Tracy Quan and Richard Gibbs exit

In unrelated changes, two public relations/communications executives left.

They are Royal Caribbean veteran Tracy Quan, associate VP global public relations who most recently focused on destination communications/stakeholder engagement, and Richard Gibbs, senior external affairs manager, destination development for the past 2.5 years.

 

Royal Caribbean Group taps EVP/chief people and outreach officer (seatrade-cruise.com)

[grandgeezer]

RCL stock closed at $83.78 the end of the first quarter, March 31, 2022. The end of the second quarter is Thursday, June 30, 2022, that will tell you what the financial experts think how the cruise lines are progressing towards returning to the new normal.

[At Sea At Peace]

3 hours ago, grandgeezer said:

RCL stock closed at $83.78 the end of the first quarter, March 31, 2022. The end of the second quarter is Thursday, June 30, 2022, that will tell you what the financial experts think how the cruise lines are progressing towards returning to the new normal.

 

IMO, we are past the point of looking at equity (i.e., stock PPS) as the indicator of what financial experts think.  Taking a look at the debt since 12/31/2021 to today 6/22/2022 there is a stunning reduction in bond prices from face (inversely an increase in the yield over stated rates).

 

Here is one of RCL's bonds as an example of the above.

 

Again, looking to the debt, which is the first in line at the creditors table, speaks volumes in the confidence level in RCL (IMO the best financially prepared of the big 3).

 

 

[grandgeezer]

11 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

IMO, we are past the point of looking at equity (i.e., stock PPS) as the indicator of what financial experts think.  Taking a look at the debt since 12/31/2021 to today 6/22/2022 there is a stunning reduction in bond prices from face (inversely an increase in the yield over stated rates).

 

Here is one of RCL's bonds as an example of the above.

 

Again, looking to the debt, which is the first in line at the creditors table, speaks volumes in the confidence level in RCL (IMO the best financially prepared of the big 3).

 

 

Being best prepared of the big three is no guarantee of future success. Time will tell.

[At Sea At Peace]

20 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Being best prepared of the big three is no guarantee of future success. Time will tell.

 

That's probably why I indicated that "IMO the best financially prepared of the big 3" and did not proffer such as a guarantee of future success.  😉

 

Also, such presentation was focused on the debt value (price) declines in 5 1/2 months, indicative of significantly increase risk assessment (of the financial experts in the OP in response quote) and supposition that such on debt is likely a better indicator than a focus on equity.  Of further note, the MKT CAP of the big three (i.e., equity valuation) is but a fragment of both their historical amounts and in relation to their current debt load (i.e., following debt is heavily weighted).  🤨

 

 

[Morecruisesplz]

14 minutes ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

That's probably why I indicated that "IMO the best financially prepared of the big 3" and did not proffer such as a guarantee of future success.  😉

 

Also, such presentation was focused on the debt value (price) declines in 5 1/2 months, indicative of significantly increase risk assessment (of the financial experts in the OP in response quote) and supposition that such on debt is likely a better indicator than a focus on equity.  Of further note, the MKT CAP of the big three (i.e., equity valuation) is but a fragment of both their historical amounts and in relation to their current debt load (i.e., following debt is heavily weighted).  🤨

 

 

So I shouldn't buy at $25 and sell at $55? (Not an expert of any sort; just a cruiser.)

[volk904]

Back in 2020 I kicked myself for not buying 100 shares RCCL stock at $35. With back in the same range I bought 100 shares today. I think it will go up pretty quick and if I can get the cabin credits on cruises that is a bonus.   Royal is running with pretty full cruises this summer and should start showing some quarterly profits.   

Edited June 23, 2022 by volk904

[Big_G]

37 minutes ago, volk904 said:

Back in 2020 I kicked myself for not buying 100 shares RCCL stock at $35. With back in the same range I bought 100 shares today. I think it will go up pretty quick and if I can get the cabin credits on cruises that is a bonus.   Royal is running with pretty full cruises this summer and should start showing some quarterly profits.   

 

Don't feel bad. In 2009 I had just opened my stock account. We had been sailing Royal for over 10 years and watched the stock drop from mid $30's to mid $5's. As it rose to mid $7's I suggested to my wife we buy it. We had hit Diamond and the share holder discount wasn't combinable with the balcony discount so she said no. As the good dutiful husband I did not but I also remind her every time she's skeptical about a stock purchase. It's like having a trump card. 😆

[grandgeezer]

2 hours ago, volk904 said:

Back in 2020 I kicked myself for not buying 100 shares RCCL stock at $35. With back in the same range I bought 100 shares today. I think it will go up pretty quick and if I can get the cabin credits on cruises that is a bonus.   Royal is running with pretty full cruises this summer and should start showing some quarterly profits.   

Take a look at the current economy, inflation, gas prices, supply chain issues, etc. Cruising is considered discretionary spending which is money spent on nonessential items. When things get tight these items are the first things to go. 

Also, it’s been common knowledge, for quite awhile that ships are filling up fairly fast now, yet the current stock price is down almost 55% ytd, and almost $100 below it’s all time high. 

[The Scurvy Pirate]

11 hours ago, Big_G said:

As the good dutiful husband I did not but I also remind her every time she's skeptical about a stock purchase. It's like having a trump card. 😆

In reverse where my wife told me to buy Google early on and I didn't.  She plays that card all the time....

[Baron Barracuda]

Keep an eye on CCL tomorrow.  Earnings release pre-market followed by analyst call at 10am (live-stream available on their web site).  What they have to say about bookings, pricing, staffing, etc will impact other cruise stocks.  One difference is CCL historically has not hedged their fuel needs while RCL typically hedges 50% of current year and 25% of following year.  

[At Sea At Peace]

On 6/22/2022 at 6:24 PM, fredmdcruisers said:

So I shouldn't buy at $25 and sell at $55? (Not an expert of any sort; just a cruiser.)

 

Well, since both are hypotheticals steeped in confirmation bias, i.e., an imaginary scenario, then sure.  I don't know how you can actually predict that you can buy RCL at $25 or equally that RCL will actually rise to $55.  But hey, the experts can't either.

 

The core of the post (not substantively debated or discussed in the one liners) was that looking at the "debt-side" price and yield changes in just the past 6 months and the relative size of "debt to equity" (either stockholder's equity or MKT CAP), and that change since pre-pandemic, highlights that "debt" is massively more weighted than equity (a big change from pre-pandemic) and information about the changes in the values (sales, trades data) give more appropriate reference to analysis of the financial investors in the market.

 

The "debt market" has totally upended the "equity market" in valuation (see BELOW).

 

 

Again, the point was that the debt market has been very, very negative in the past six months (citing one as an example).

 

 

 

 

 

[Morecruisesplz]

4 hours ago, At Sea At Peace said:

 

Well, since both are hypotheticals steeped in confirmation bias, i.e., an imaginary scenario, then sure.  I don't know how you can actually predict that you can buy RCL at $25 or equally that RCL will actually rise to $55.  But hey, the experts can't either.

 

The core of the post (not substantively debated or discussed in the one liners) was that looking at the "debt-side" price and yield changes in just the past 6 months and the relative size of "debt to equity" (either stockholder's equity or MKT CAP), and that change since pre-pandemic, highlights that "debt" is massively more weighted than equity (a big change from pre-pandemic) and information about the changes in the values (sales, trades data) give more appropriate reference to analysis of the financial investors in the market.

 

The "debt market" has totally upended the "equity market" in valuation (see BELOW).

 

 

Again, the point was that the debt market has been very, very negative in the past six months (citing one as an example).

 

 

 

 

 

Lost me... but I think you said not as good a value as pre-pandemic.

[BermudaBound2014]

23 hours ago, Baron Barracuda said:

Keep an eye on CCL tomorrow.  Earnings release pre-market followed by analyst call at 10am (live-stream available on their web site).  What they have to say about bookings, pricing, staffing, etc will impact other cruise stocks.  One difference is CCL historically has not hedged their fuel needs while RCL typically hedges 50% of current year and 25% of following year.  

 

CCL released with the opening bell (which was a bit odd).

 

Financials worse than anticipated. They lost another 1.9 Billion dollars last quarter. Occupancy rates were only 69%. Debt is now 35Billion and climbing. With all that said, customer deposits were up, and I suspect that is the reason the market has reacted positively today for all 3 majors.

 

 

[Baron Barracuda]

37 minutes ago, BermudaBound2014 said:

 

CCL released with the opening bell (which was a bit odd).

 

Financials worse than anticipated. They lost another 1.9 Billion dollars last quarter. Occupancy rates were only 69%. Debt is now 35Billion and climbing. With all that said, customer deposits were up, and I suspect that is the reason the market has reacted positively today for all 3 majors.

 

 

Believe the positive stock reaction (aside from the overall market being up big) is aside from a miss on earnings there were no negative surprises.  During the quarter hey turned cash flow positive and their liquidity position appears stable.  Most of fleet is back in service and will soon be operating with yields above 100%.  Bookings solid and making progress on staffing issue.  Expect to be slightly in the black next quarter on an EBITDA basis.