Taking a cue from hotels

[marieps]

7 hours ago, ECCruise said:

Then please explain Brazil. 

Lots of sun and warmth. Not so much social distancing since Bolsinaro didn't think it was effective. Currently #2 in the world behind US. 

Were those infected indoors or out?    Many questions surround any outbreak.  

Edited May 29, 2020 by marieps

[pumpkin 11]

4 hours ago, cangelmd said:

And this is why the more I think about it, and the longer this goes, the more convinced I become that there will be no cruising without a vaccine and enough vaccine to cover most all people.

Hotels have been looking to scrap daily maid service for years and Covid is a handy excuse. The service on a cruise is part of the experience, even diluted as it has been over the last 10 years, I’m not sure how this will pan out going forward.

Its inflammatory and probably not fair to say the CDC has it in for the cruise industry and is trying to send a message, but I do think there is little incentive for CDC to prioritize cruising, or even cut the industry a break. CDC is mostly providing guidelines and suggestions, but for cruises they actually get to decide yea or nay, and I suspect that behind the scenes the reopening plans have to be either proof of vaccination by almost everyone onboard or an equivalent level of safety.

Good luck with requiring this

[ECCruise]

1 hour ago, marieps said:

Were those infected indoors or out?    Many questions surround any outbreak.  

No, it is quite clear that, as for Brazil, it was lack of social distancing, both indoors and out. . But your mention was warm weather cruises having a disinfectant because of sun and breezes.  Spent a lot of time in Brazil on cruises and on land  Brazil is sunny and hot.  But they have the world's fastest growing outbreak. 

There is no evidence of sun and heat having an effect on COVID. 

[Oville]

For those that think that warm weather kills COVID-19, take a look at this for Naples, FL. It has been very warm for many weeks before May:

 

 

Edited May 29, 2020 by Oville

[yorky]

9 hours ago, cangelmd said:

And this is why the more I think about it, and the longer this goes, the more convinced I become that there will be no cruising without a vaccine and enough vaccine to cover most all people.

Hotels have been looking to scrap daily maid service for years and Covid is a handy excuse. The service on a cruise is part of the experience, even diluted as it has been over the last 10 years, I’m not sure how this will pan out going forward.

Its inflammatory and probably not fair to say the CDC has it in for the cruise industry and is trying to send a message, but I do think there is little incentive for CDC to prioritize cruising, or even cut the industry a break. CDC is mostly providing guidelines and suggestions, but for cruises they actually get to decide yea or nay, and I suspect that behind the scenes the reopening plans have to be either proof of vaccination by almost everyone onboard or an equivalent level of safety.

I can’t see any indications that suggest cruise lines will just close down until there is a vaccine and just about everyone is inoculated, I’m not even convinced they will demand you have one to cruise any more than they will demand one to fly or stay in resorts. Could be wrong but to me they are looking to put in place procedures to limit the risk of contamination, not wait until we have a vaccine.

[Lazz]

5 hours ago, Oville said:

For those that think that warm weather kills COVID-19, take a look at this for Naples, FL. It has been very warm for many weeks before May:

 

 

When you put these charts up, you need to include the amount of testing that has been done.  The increase in positive results could be the result in an increase in testing, 

[pumpkin 11]

7 hours ago, ECCruise said:

No, it is quite clear that, as for Brazil, it was lack of social distancing, both indoors and out. . But your mention was warm weather cruises having a disinfectant because of sun and breezes.  Spent a lot of time in Brazil on cruises and on land  Brazil is sunny and hot.  But they have the world's fastest growing outbreak. 

There is no evidence of sun and heat having an effect on COVID. 

There almost zero evidence the virus is transmitted outside

[4774Papa]

18 hours ago, BigAl94 said:

Just imagine the lines for the elevators if social distancing applies! One person or a couple at a time.

Good point.  My wife and I always try to use the stairs on cruises, but we don't when we have several floors and going up.

One thing, if you avoid the elevators and take the stairs, you might burn some calories.

[4774Papa]

8 hours ago, ECCruise said:

No, it is quite clear that, as for Brazil, it was lack of social distancing, both indoors and out. . But your mention was warm weather cruises having a disinfectant because of sun and breezes.  Spent a lot of time in Brazil on cruises and on land  Brazil is sunny and hot.  But they have the world's fastest growing outbreak. 

There is no evidence of sun and heat having an effect on COVID. 

I generally agree that climate can't be relied on to defeat the virus.

However, I have read articles that heat and humidity do help kill the virus.   I would opine that lack of social distancing is huge anywhere, but I think it is healthy to get outside and enjoy the sun.   Just maintain social distancing.

[ECCruise]

Just now, 4774Papa said:

I generally agree that climate can't be relied on to defeat the virus.

However, I have read articles that heat and humidity do help kill the virus.   I would opine that lack of social distancing is huge anywhere, but I think it is healthy to get outside and enjoy the sun.   Just maintain social distancing.

Totally agree 

[cangelmd]

5 hours ago, yorky said:

I can’t see any indications that suggest cruise lines will just close down until there is a vaccine and just about everyone is inoculated, I’m not even convinced they will demand you have one to cruise any more than they will demand one to fly or stay in resorts. Could be wrong but to me they are looking to put in place procedures to limit the risk of contamination, not wait until we have a vaccine.

Agreed, but I'm beginning to think the CDC isn't going to let them. I think it will be subtle and not clearly stated, but the CDC will either drag their feet about approving a plan, or send it back to them for tweaking over and over OR will throw in so many caveats and requirements that it will not make financial sense for them to sail or will not be an experience that they can sell successfully. It could be as simple as the CDC doesn't have the time and manpower to deal with a whiny industry that doesn't even pay US taxes.

I truly, truly hope I'm wrong, and obviously this scenario does not apply to ships leaving from foreign ports.

I don't think there is much sympathy on Capitol Hill or in the CDC for cruising - not sure about the administration, but having 2 of the 3 against you doesn't help. Also think of how it would play out in the media, they have already crucified the cruise lines (with some justification, they aren't entirely blameless victims), if cruising begins without every t crossed and i dotted, it will be all over the press.

I guess I'm coming around to the idea that if I was CEO of a cruiseline and I had any hope of making the finances work, that I would hunker down, hope to the Lord that the rosier predictions of widespread vaccines by next summer pan out and plan for that...

[FlorenceItaly]

5 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

I guess I'm coming around to the idea that if I was CEO of a cruiseline and I had any hope of making the finances work, that I would hunker down, hope to the Lord that the rosier predictions of widespread vaccines by next summer pan out and plan for that...

I am not sure they can afford to hunker down for a long length of time.

[C-Dragons]

3 minutes ago, cangelmd said:

Agreed, but I'm beginning to think the CDC isn't going to let them. I think it will be subtle and not clearly stated, but the CDC will either drag their feet about approving a plan, or send it back to them for tweaking over and over OR will throw in so many caveats and requirements that it will not make financial sense for them to sail or will not be an experience that they can sell successfully. It could be as simple as the CDC doesn't have the time and manpower to deal with a whiny industry that doesn't even pay US taxes.

I truly, truly hope I'm wrong, and obviously this scenario does not apply to ships leaving from foreign ports.

That “whiny” industry contributes millions in revenue to ports all around the US. Many states need that revenue.

[phabric]

I was at a Best Western hotel in Feb, if you did not want Housekeeping, you got 500 points per day.

[cangelmd]

8 hours ago, Oville said:

For those that think that warm weather kills COVID-19, take a look at this for Naples, FL. It has been very warm for many weeks before May:

 

 

 

Heat seems to kill the virus (I'm not sure about humidity, I've heard that, but haven't seen it from a "professional" source, but it doesn't seem to prevent the spread. Because of the profound effect of the lockdown (yay us) and the general lack of testing in the US, we don't really know if heat slows the spread. When you talk about heat in this context you are actually talking about being outside, which involves UV that definitely kills virus (my work scrubs get an hour or two of hanging out on a clothesline in the back yard for this reason) and some social distancing and better ventilation as well as temperature.

Likely, just like flu (I hate to say that because it always gets shot down) and other respiratory viruses, summer and the human behaviors that accompany summer SHOULD slow the spread somewhat, but that effect may be lost in the huge change that the lockdown made. Also, don't forget that we think there is little to no natural immunity which should make transmission easier than other respiratory viruses, all other things being equal. Lastly, when you read those graphs (and our county looks just like that, little bit different scale), remember that we are testing more and more, so all the cumulative case graphs look like that. :).

Edited May 29, 2020 by cangelmd

[cangelmd]

4 minutes ago, C-Dragons said:

That “whiny” industry contributes millions in revenue to ports all around the US. Many states need that revenue.

Yes, true, and I'm sure that CLIA is hammering that point home - at least I hope they are! I live in a town with a cruise ship, yes it is small small potatoes compared even to Galveston, but we are on the hook for a couple of million in mortgage payments on the terminal while Carnival isn't cruising.

 

My adjective is the one that I think is being used internally both at the CDC and in Congress.

Based on what we are seeing coming out of the CDC, they are working very very hard, and I think that cruising is just quite low on the priority list.

[C-Dragons]

10 hours ago, ECCruise said:

No, it is quite clear that, as for Brazil, it was lack of social distancing, both indoors and out. . But your mention was warm weather cruises having a disinfectant because of sun and breezes.  Spent a lot of time in Brazil on cruises and on land  Brazil is sunny and hot.  But they have the world's fastest growing outbreak. 

There is no evidence of sun and heat having an effect on COVID. 

Actually there is evidence. In fact the Ford motor company that makes Police vehicles is adding technology to their current vehicles that will raise the internal temperature to 133 degrees for 15 minutes in order to disinfect and kill the virus. No more sanitizing with chemicals.

Doctors have publicly stated that research has shown that sunlight will also kill the virus in a couple of minutes on hard surfaces.

 

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2020/05/27/ford-heated-sanitization-software-police-vehicles-coronavirus.html

[ECCruise]

1 hour ago, C-Dragons said:

Actually there is evidence. In fact the Ford motor company that makes Police vehicles is adding technology to their current vehicles that will raise the internal temperature to 133 degrees for 15 minutes in order to disinfect and kill the virus. No more sanitizing with chemicals.

Doctors have publicly stated that research has shown that sunlight will also kill the virus in a couple of minutes on hard surfaces.

 

https://media.ford.com/content/fordmedia/fna/us/en/news/2020/05/27/ford-heated-sanitization-software-police-vehicles-coronavirus.html

Interesting. Could be a big help.

But I am talking outside, not in a controlled enclosed environment under strict conditions.  And I still say that ignoring social distancing  in 90 degree heat (as opposed to 133 degrees) and thinking they will be safer, will have a detrimental effect on viral spread.  Which is exactly what I see in hundreds of places that have opened up in the last few weeks.  And precisely what I think will happen when cruises start sailing again.

[Fouremco]

3 minutes ago, ECCruise said:

Interesting. Could be a big help.

But I am talking outside, not in a controlled enclosed environment under strict conditions.  And I still say that ignoring social distancing  in 90 degree heat (as opposed to 133 degrees) and thinking they will be safer, will have a detrimental effect on viral spread.  Which is exactly what I see in hundreds of places that have opened up in the last few weeks.  And precisely what I think will happen when cruises start sailing again.

I agree. Part of the confusion, I think, may stem from the lack of detail provided in some of the posts here. For example, what intensity and wavelength of the UV light was used in the mentioned experiments, and did this accurately mimic natural sunlight conditions in summer? Of the solar UV energy that reaches earth, 95 percent is UVA and 5 percent is UVB. No measurable UVC from solar radiation reaches the Earth's surface, because ozone, molecular oxygen and water vapor in the upper atmosphere completely absorb the shortest UV wavelengths. But it is UVC that is typically used for sterilizing, begging the question of whether natural solar light (UVA and UVB) was used in the experiments or artificially produced UVC.

[ECCruise]

4 hours ago, Lazz said:

When you put these charts up, you need to include the amount of testing that has been done.  The increase in positive results could be the result in an increase in testing, 

I agree.

A much better (in a manner of speaking, unfortunately) metric is hospitalizations. In a number of areas of the country, including right here in NC these are taking an unhealthy jump in the last week/10 days.  Whether this is a reflection of relaxed directives or people just being stupid will likely be determined later.

[marieps]

13 hours ago, ECCruise said:

There is no evidence of sun and heat having an effect on COVID. 

Apparently you haven't read this from the Washington Post, as written April 24.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/04/23/lab-study-coronavirus-summer-weather/

[Fouremco]

4 minutes ago, marieps said:

Apparently you haven't read this from the Washington Post, as written April 24.

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/04/23/lab-study-coronavirus-summer-weather/

Perhaps you missed the headline.

 

Results are preliminary, with many uncertainties remaining

 

Wasn't this the same briefing where ingesting Clorox and introducing UV inside the body were touted as possible remedies?

[marieps]

21 minutes ago, Fouremco said:

Perhaps you missed the headline.

 

Results are preliminary, with many uncertainties remaining

 

Wasn't this the same briefing where ingesting Clorox and introducing UV inside the body were touted as possible remedies?

The point is the other poster said there was no evidence.  There is evidence.  There is also a difference between evidence and proof.  Evidence must be tested and retested.  That's kinda the point.  

[Fouremco]

3 minutes ago, marieps said:

The point is the other poster said there was no evidence.  There is evidence.  There is also a difference between evidence and proof.  Evidence must be tested and retested.  That's kinda the point.  

ev.i.dence

noun

the available body of facts or information indicating whether a belief or proposition is true or valid.

 

There remain insufficient facts or information to support your contention that " Sun and a breeze are great disinfectants". 

[ECCruise]

18 minutes ago, marieps said:

The point is the other poster said there was no evidence.  There is evidence.  There is also a difference between evidence and proof.  Evidence must be tested and retested.  That's kinda the point.  

I would agree with the comparison between evidence and proof.  Maybe I should have said "proof."  Because there are lots of examples of "evidence" including UFOs,  Sasquatch.  Others.  But no proof.

But my earliest reaction was that people seem to be believing that heat and humidity is some magic potion.  If it was, what I originally said was "what about Brazil?"  Sunny.   Hot.  Humid.  Horrible COVID-19 infections raging.  Also Singapore with same weather conditions that had a large spike after seeming was under control.

I think that there are people are so desperate to go on a cruise that they will grasp at anything to assuage their cruising desire.  Whether it is sun disinfectant or "CDC said surfaces are not a source of transmission."

(They didn't).

I'm willing to get a better line on all information before I get crammed into a cruise ship.  Just more to life than cruising.

Edited May 29, 2020 by ECCruise