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A promising vaccine on the horizon? Even Dr. Fauci is encouraged by the results so far

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https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/moderna-covid19-vaccine-first-data-show-spurs-immune-response/
 
Dr. Fauci may be very encouraged by the results, but I'm sure our gloom and doomers will throw cold water on the prospect of a successful vaccine.
I just read this morning. This is interesting. I hope this is a big one.

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"The results were published Tuesday in the New England Journal of Medicine. Moderna had previously released some results in a press release, but many experts said they were not sufficient to draw many conclusions. Even now, many are withholding judgment.

“It certainly is a good beginning,” said Betty Diamond, director at the Feinstein Institutes for Medical Research, who was not involved in the trial. “There are certainly lots of things we don’t know yet right now.”"

 

"“We don’t know how much [antibody] we need to be protected, so we can’t say” all the participants “achieved a protective level,” Kathryn Edwards, scientific director of the Vanderbilt Vaccine Research Program, said in an email to STAT. “What we can say is that they made antibody that neutralized the virus, which is good.”"

 

There's no reason not to be encouraged, it's a first step, and first steps are good. But you don't have to be a "doom and gloomer", just read the article and listen to the experts who say that this is simply a first step and a finished product is a long way off. 

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I'm cautiously optimistic on this. Sounds like they're making good progress, which is all we can reasonably expect.

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2 hours ago, sanger727 said:

There's no reason not to be encouraged, it's a first step, and first steps are good. But you don't have to be a "doom and gloomer", just read the article and listen to the experts who say that this is simply a first step and a finished product is a long way off. 

You hit the nail on the head.

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18 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

You hit the nail on the head.

Exactly - there is a valuable middle ground between the doom and gloomers and the *****-eyed optimists.  This is probably the fastest progress on apparently effective vaccine development in our lifetimes, so we have reason for hope - still long term effectiveness needs to be determined, then mass production and distribution needs to follow.  Having multiple “horses” in this race is important — I recall Sabin’s oral polio vaccine following shortly after Salks initial success.

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I've kinda already moved past the "will there be an effective vaccine" and have started focusing on this line in the article:

 

"Another is whether the antibodies will last."

 

It seems more and more that antibody levels are dropping pretty darn fast.

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2 minutes ago, neverbeenhere said:

booster shots needed?

 

See you in 22. (I hope)

That's the soonest that we're thinking to fly or cruise.

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I'm ok with getting shots every season. I get the flu shot every year, why not this.

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2 minutes ago, JAMESCC said:

I'm ok with getting shots every season. I get the flu shot every year, why not this.

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Good point.  Most viruses tend to mutate, so it is unlikely that there will be one COVID vaccine providing, with one shot,  permanent immunization. 

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29 minutes ago, navybankerteacher said:

I recall Sabin’s oral polio vaccine following shortly after Salks initial success.

I have vivid memories of the history of polio vaccines as I was one of the school children who participated in the Salk vaccine trials in 1954. Although the passage of time makes it seems as though the Sabin vaccine came into use shortly after the Salk vaccine, six years elapsed between the introduction of the Salk vaccine (1955) and the Sabin vaccine (1961).

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5 hours ago, ontheweb said:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/07/14/moderna-covid19-vaccine-first-data-show-spurs-immune-response/

 

Dr. Fauci may be very encouraged by the results, but I'm sure our gloom and doomers will throw cold water on the prospect of a successful vaccine.

Israeli scientist say they have developed a vaccine that so far has only been tested on hamsters .They plan to have it in final stages by July 27.

This appeared in the Times of Israel 18 hours ago.

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1 hour ago, njhorseman said:

Although the passage of time makes it seems as though the Sabin vaccine came into use shortly after the Salk vaccine, six years elapsed between the introduction of the Salk vaccine (1955) and the Sabin vaccine (1961).

 

Six years is only a second when looking back from a historical perspective. But it seems like an eternity when a COVID pandemic has us all in its sights.

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6 minutes ago, lenquixote66 said:

Israeli scientist say they have developed a vaccine that so far has only been tested on hamsters .They plan to have it in final stages by July 27.

This appeared in the Times of Israel 18 hours ago.

 

Yes -- they are one of many, many teams working toward this. And not as far advanced as some others.

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Just now, cruisemom42 said:

 

Yes -- they are one of many, many teams working toward this. And not as far advanced as some others.

They were among the first to try for a vaccine and initially hoped to find a cure by June .

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4 minutes ago, lenquixote66 said:

They were among the first to try for a vaccine and initially hoped to find a cure by June .

 

Are we talking about the same vaccine candidate? The one being developed by the Israel Institute for Biological Research, which is run by the Defense Ministry, based on the VSV virus?  If so, the article I read said that "The institute is a long way off from producing a tested and approved human vaccine."

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15 minutes ago, cruisemom42 said:

 

Are we talking about the same vaccine candidate? The one being developed by the Israel Institute for Biological Research, which is run by the Defense Ministry, based on the VSV virus?  If so, the article I read said that "The institute is a long way off from producing a tested and approved human vaccine."

Apparently,The PM ordered them to find a vaccine on Feb.1.

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2 hours ago, njhorseman said:

I have vivid memories of the history of polio vaccines as I was one of the school children who participated in the Salk vaccine trials in 1954. Although the passage of time makes it seems as though the Sabin vaccine came into use shortly after the Salk vaccine, six years elapsed between the introduction of the Salk vaccine (1955) and the Sabin vaccine (1961).

I thought there was a gap between the two, but was not sure how long it was. Thank you for the information.

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1 hour ago, lenquixote66 said:

Israeli scientist say they have developed a vaccine that so far has only been tested on hamsters .They plan to have it in final stages by July 27.

This appeared in the Times of Israel 18 hours ago.

Having tested on hamsters is well behind the study I posted that was done on HUMANS.

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Throw enough money, effort, modern science and brain power at a problem and chances are someone will come up with a workable solution. I am encouraged by this latest development.

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11 minutes ago, sfaaa said:

Throw enough money, effort, modern science and brain power at a problem and chances are someone will come up with a workable solution. I am encouraged by this latest development.

That didn't work when attempting to develop vaccines for AIDS and SARS....although a lot more money is being spent for this effort.

The point is that vaccine development is extraordinarily difficult, so much so that about 90% of vaccines that make it to the human testing phases never make it to market...and no vaccine has made it to market in under four years, with a more typical development time frame of 10 years.

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33 minutes ago, njhorseman said:

That didn't work when attempting to develop vaccines for AIDS and SARS....although a lot more money is being spent for this effort.

The point is that vaccine development is extraordinarily difficult, so much so that about 90% of vaccines that make it to the human testing phases never make it to market...and no vaccine has made it to market in under four years, with a more typical development time frame of 10 years.

But has any vaccine had this much resources thrown at finding a cure? And has science not progressed from then?

 

As for SARS, didn't it peter out by itself before the possible vaccines could be tested?

 

And as for AIDS, were as many resources committed to finding a vaccine. Dying from Covid 19 has no negative stigma. Those with AIDS  were seen as outcasts, intravenous drug users or those practicing "deviant" sexual practices. And yes, I know there were other causes like a bad blood transfusion, but I am talking about the general perception and what that led to in committing resources especially from the government.

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6 hours ago, clo said:

I've kinda already moved past the "will there be an effective vaccine" and have started focusing on this line in the article:

 

"Another is whether the antibodies will last."

 

It seems more and more that antibody levels are dropping pretty darn fast.

 

 

Booster shots.

 

I suspect the early vaccines will require multi shots to get immunity and then boosters to keep immunity.

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1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

But has any vaccine had this much resources thrown at finding a cure? And has science not progressed from then?

 

As for SARS, didn't it peter out by itself before the possible vaccines could be tested?

 

And as for AIDS, were as many resources committed to finding a vaccine. Dying from Covid 19 has no negative stigma. Those with AIDS  were seen as outcasts, intravenous drug users or those practicing "deviant" sexual practices. And yes, I know there were other causes like a bad blood transfusion, but I am talking about the general perception and what that led to in committing resources especially from the government.

I covered the money issue up front. Please reread my first sentence, which ends "although a lot more money is being spent for this effort".

 

Research for a SARS vaccine went on for years after SARS died out. It wasn't until 2016, more than a decade after SARS disappeared, that research efforts were halted: https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-care/scientists-were-close-coronavirus-vaccine-years-ago-then-money-dried-n1150091 .

 

If what you're suggesting about AIDS were true, why was there also a big investment in the development of treatment medications...an investment that has produced some treatments that have real value. https://aidsinfo.nih.gov/understanding-hiv-aids/fact-sheets/21/51/hiv-treatment--the-basics#:~:text=The treatment for HIV is,medicines as soon as possible

 

 By the way HIV vaccine research hasn't ended either: https://www.hiv.gov/hiv-basics/hiv-prevention/potential-future-options/hiv-vaccines .

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