Analyst: No Cruises Until At Least 2nd Quarter 2021

[chipmaster]

19 minutes ago, Eli_6 said:

The FDA Commissioner is on FOX now discussing the vaccine and the safety/efficacy.

 

FOX had the headline below him that a vaccine may be ready by fall but neither the FDA Commissioner not the doctor discussing the AZ vaccine actually said that.  I recorded it but when I listened back, all you can hear are my kids and my parrot screaming in the background.

 

I found this quote enlightening " “Seeing these responses means that people should be optimistic that this vaccine will be useful,”     A response doesn't mean immunity, doesn't mean won't get sick.  I am almost certain everyone that got exposed to COVID-SARs-2 shows a response, and some still die.    

 

The large next stage trial is to expose a huge swath representing a wide range of people and prove that once given the vaccine, then exposed to the virus don't die at statistically significant levels to prove the efficacy.

 

We already know large swaths of the population got it, many are asymptomatic and transmit the virus, that estimate varies but I've read it could easily be 10x or more over the current active.   This makes testing efficacy far harder as you actually don't know in the control population when exposed how many already develop response naturally against those that fall ill and die.      Thus we need to get very very much more  wide spread testing to understand that base before we even begin to understand the true efficacy compared to do nothing.       Developing response is meaningless, you need to prove that the population that takes the vaccines measurable has lower serious illness, hospitalization, and death.    Likely only a few countries that have contact tracing, control of virus and huge testing database will know 😉

[Eli_6]

Here is a link to the Oxford study published today:

 

https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620316044.pdf

 

I am also attaching it in pdf form.  

published results of oxford study.pdf

[Eli_6]

8 minutes ago, chipmaster said:

 

I found this quote enlightening " “Seeing these responses means that people should be optimistic that this vaccine will be useful,”     A response doesn't mean immunity, doesn't mean won't get sick.  I am almost certain everyone that got exposed to COVID-SARs-2 shows a response, and some still die.    

 

The large next stage trial is to expose a huge swath representing a wide range of people and prove that once given the vaccine, then exposed to the virus don't die at statistically significant levels to prove the efficacy.

 

We already know large swaths of the population got it, many are asymptomatic and transmit the virus, that estimate varies but I've read it could easily be 10x or more over the current active.   This makes testing efficacy far harder as you actually don't know in the control population when exposed how many already develop response naturally against those that fall ill and die.      Thus we need to get very very much more  wide spread testing to understand that base before we even begin to understand the true efficacy compared to do nothing.       Developing response is meaningless, you need to prove that the population that takes the vaccines measurable has lower serious illness, hospitalization, and death.    Likely only a few countries that have contact tracing, control of virus and huge testing database will know 😉

The results of the Oxford study are NOT meaningless.  People much smarter than either of us would not be investing the sort of money they are investing in continuing that vaccine study (and premanufacturing tens of millions of vacciens) if the results of that study were meaningless. If you are referring to the video from Fox...that was just 30 seconds of a longer interview. I have 7 more and the length of time it took me to upload that tells me it isn't worth continuing to upload the rest when I can just post the original article and anyone interested in the results can go directly to the source.  Another study out of China came out as well and I will also post that one next.  

 

While completely preventing people from getting sick is ideal, a vaccine may still be worthwhile if it lessens symptoms and severity of the virus. The FDA looks at BOTH when assessing efficacy and whether to grant approval. If a vaccine (or any other treatment) is shown to significantly reduce the severity of Covid-19, that will no doubt change the landscape for cruising.   

 

[chipmaster]

1 minute ago, Eli_6 said:

The results of the Oxford study are NOT meaningless.  People much smarter than either of us would not be investing the sort of money they are investing in continuing that vaccine study (and premanufacturing tens of millions of vacciens) if the results of that study were meaningless. If you are referring to the video from Fox...that was just 30 seconds of a longer interview. I have 7 more and the length of time it took me to upload that tells me it isn't worth continuing to upload the rest when I can just post the original article and anyone interested in the results can go directly to the source.  Another study out of China came out as well and I will also post that one next.  

 

While completely preventing people from getting sick is ideal, a vaccine may still be worthwhile if it lessens symptoms and severity of the virus. The FDA looks at BOTH when assessing effiicacy and whether to grant approval. If a vaccine (or any other treatment) is shown to significantly reduce the severity of Covid-19, that will no doubt change the landscape for cruising.   

 

 

There is NO statistical evidence yet just optimism

 

There is currently NO evidence it keeps people from getting sick, lessen symptoms, etc.  The fact they are generating antibodies suggest we should proceed, is it going to be the silver bullet, TBD.

 

Don't confuse spending money with high confidence investment.   

[GA Dave]

Here is more good news.  I have been on Tricor for over (20) years.

 

Tricor Makes Covid No Worse Than A Common Cold

[Eli_6]

Different study on different Covid-19 vaccine (out of China) also published in The Lancet today:

 

https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620316056.pdf

 

Here is a comment on the two studies which were just published today:

https://marlin-prod.literatumonline.com/pb-assets/Lancet/pdfs/S0140673620316111.pdf

 

The comment does a good job of putting the research in perspective both in terms of it being promising, but emphasizing further testing is needed:

 

"These trial reports are hugely anticipated. The results of both studies augur well for phase 3 trials, where the vaccines must be tested on much larger populations of participants to assess their efficacy and safety. Overall, the results of both trials are broadly similar and promising, notwithstanding differences in the vector, in the geographical locations of the populations studied, and the neutralisation assays used...These COVID-19 vaccine trials are small so inferential caution is warranted, but the explorations are laudable...The safety signals from these two important trials are reassuring."

 

There are many trials that do well in phase 2 and fail in phase 3. I am not denying that or trying to give false hope.  But what one has to remember is that these two vaccines are not the only vaccines in active development. There are nearly 200 others. Source: Lurie N, Sharfstein JM, Goodman JL. The development of COVID-19 vaccines. JAMA 2020; published online July 6. https://doi.org.10.1001/jama.2020.12461.

[Eli_6]

3 minutes ago, GA Dave said:

Here is more good news.  I have been on Tricor for over (20) years.

 

Tricor Makes Covid No Worse Than A Common Cold

I hope that turns out to be true not only for what it means for cruising and lessening the seriousness of the virus, but also because I am pretty sure I own stock in AbbVie, LOL.  

[Joe817]

8 minutes ago, GA Dave said:

Here is more good news.  I have been on Tricor for over (20) years.

 

Tricor Makes Covid No Worse Than A Common Cold

Well this came out of left field(for me.)  Very interesting. Thanks for posting Dave! 

[ProgRockCruiser]

20 hours ago, Diggerof4 said:

I was just recently tested. Not because of symptoms, due to I had to have emergency surgery.  I looked at my labs the hospital performed and they called they called the test SARS Coronavirus 2, PCR Rapid.  Just thought I would throw that out there. 

Yes, the Coronavirus that is responsible for the illness known as "COVID-19" is a "Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome" virus.  To quote Wikipedia, for example:

 

"Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2)."

 

Also:

 

"SARS-CoV-2 is closely related to the original SARS-CoV."

 

So the research put into the original SARS has probably helped a lot in this new situation.

 

EDIT: for utility:

 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coronavirus_disease_2019

Edited July 20, 2020 by ProgRockCruiser

[Cafedumonde]

No thanks on any vaccine for an illness with such a low mortality rate.  I will take my chances with my immune system.  I also seriously doubt any vaccine they come up with will be more effective than the flu vaccine which is only 40-60% effective.  Studies also show that the flu vaccine actually makes you more likely to get respiratory infections.  Who knows what the long term effects of this rushed vaccine will be.

[Moviela]

If the vaccine is an injectable, they better get working on the glass vials. 

 

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-schott-exclusive/exclusive-bottlenecks-glass-vial-makers-prepare-for-covid-19-vaccine-idUSKBN23J0SN 

[PhillyFan33579]

3 hours ago, Cafedumonde said:

No thanks on any vaccine for an illness with such a low mortality rate.  I will take my chances with my immune system.  I also seriously doubt any vaccine they come up with will be more effective than the flu vaccine which is only 40-60% effective.  Studies also show that the flu vaccine actually makes you more likely to get respiratory infections.  Who knows what the long term effects of this rushed vaccine will be.

I couldn’t agree with you more. There are a lot of posts on this site and in this thread that are overly optimistic when it comes to a vaccine for this virus. While I am not a doctor or scientist, I work in the medical field and know it is a HUGE step from positive test results to an approved effective vaccine.
 

Even if a vaccine for this virus is approved, it won’t eradicate this virus and it won’t mean people will no longer get COVID-19, which you touched on with your comment about the effectiveness of the flu vaccine.  And most importantly related to CC, an approved vaccine is not going to be the silver bullet that allows cruising to resume. 

[cruiser man 60]

Well as already posted previously, cruising in Europe is starting next week from Germany with AIDA & TUI , albeit cruises with no port stops but including 7 days cruise through Norwegian fjords. Also Costa & MSC hope to restart limited cruising in August from Italy.

[ramja96]

On 7/17/2020 at 2:46 PM, Lee Cruiser said:

not sure if I want to be on one of the first cruises back.

 

 

I would think that's the cleanest that cruise ship will ever be.

[ProgRockCruiser]

20 minutes ago, ramja96 said:

 

I would think that's the cleanest that cruise ship will ever be.

I suspect the poster's concern is not about ship cleanliness but rather fellow-cruiser's contagion.  Ship can be as clean as a anything, but if a fellow cruiser with COVID-19 (or other disease) coughs in my personal space, I'm at risk.

[PhillyFan33579]

2 hours ago, cruiser man 60 said:

Well as already posted previously, cruising in Europe is starting next week from Germany with AIDA & TUI , albeit cruises with no port stops but including 7 days cruise through Norwegian fjords. Also Costa & MSC hope to restart limited cruising in August from Italy.

Good point. I need to do a better job of emphasizing my points related to cruising are for US ports. I have no desire to get on a plane any time soon so the only cruises I will go on, hopefully sooner but most likely later, are from ports in the US and more specifically from ports in Florida. 

[Joe817]

37 minutes ago, PhillyFan33579 said:

Good point. I need to do a better job of emphasizing my points related to cruising are for US ports. I have no desire to get on a plane any time soon so the only cruises I will go on, hopefully sooner but most likely later, are from ports in the US and more specifically from ports in Florida. 

I share your feelings PhillyFan. And my natural emphasis is from Galveston Port sailings. 

[ramja96]

On 7/21/2020 at 10:49 AM, ProgRockCruiser said:

I suspect the poster's concern is not about ship cleanliness but rather fellow-cruiser's contagion.  Ship can be as clean as a anything, but if a fellow cruiser with COVID-19 (or other disease) coughs in my personal space, I'm at risk.

 

Good point - and well taken - that's why we'll be wearing masks whenever appropriate and possible on our next sailing.

[EscapeFromConnecticut]

On 7/21/2020 at 10:49 AM, ProgRockCruiser said:

I suspect the poster's concern is not about ship cleanliness but rather fellow-cruiser's contagion.  Ship can be as clean as a anything, but if a fellow cruiser with COVID-19 (or other disease) coughs in my personal space, I'm at risk.

Yes, the airborne transmission of COVID-19 is the huge factor here (and that applies to bars, hotels, clubs, sports stadiums to one degree or another) ... yet many people continue thinking in term of noro prevention. If only it were as simple as Purell stations & Lysol. 

[Purvis1231]

I doubt there will be any US cruises this year. I hope a vaccine does prove effect but from what I see on social media many people will refuse to take it. As for transmission of the virus all the evidence I read still indicates the mode of transmission is person to person. There have been no proven cases of people getting through air conditioners from the neighbors in a hotel or cruise ship for that matter. (although I am a bit concerned about this.) There also have been no proven cases of people getting it from doorknobs, handrails, or any surface transmission.  So I wonder if all the emphasis of hyper cleaning is really just a feel good measure? Maybe we should have hydrogen peroxide mouth rinsing stations everywhere. 

 

Edited July 27, 2020 by Purvis1231
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