At what point is the ship too empty and the cruise is cancelled?

[jonthomas]

Im sure no one knows the answer to that. But there may be opinions.

 

We are 24 days out, sailing on Jan 2. If you decided to cancel, would you do it, 14 days out, 7 or 24 hours?

 

Again all opinions are welcome.

[Jim Avery]

That is a good question.  Lois & I have discussed the same.  I have heard of one Viking sailing with 230 or so and there is no way to make a profit for sure but some cash flow is better than none.  The logistics of supply on cruise ships was insanely complicated in the best of times.  How do you make sure you have the food necessary but not so much there is massive waste for just one example.  At some point the cruise lines with the least restrictive policies will start pulling ahead.

[KBs mum]

Possibly more about keeping trading in some format and keeping the lights on. 

If they don't sail at all possible passengers will look elsewhere and may not return, you lose the core of good crew that will train others. 

 

In the UK the businesses that were open as much as and as soon as legally possible around the lock downs picked up lots of trade from those that didn't. Where I work we traded at a loss during the lock down, but we were ready to go immediately restrictions eased, and went on to a record year. A lot of the new customers we got from less prepared competitors stayed with us. 

 

 

[FlyerTalker]

Never.  At least in my 20+ years of cruise experience and even longer dealing with travel.

 

It's the same as people saying that airline flights get cancelled for the sole reason that there aren't enough people onboard.  That fails to recognize that the aircraft, and crew, need to be at the next destination - in order to be able to then serve THAT flight, plus the continued rotation of aircraft and crew.  Schedule interruption is never good - there are too many interconnected pieces to the operational puzzle.

 

Add in that the fixed costs of the ship would continue, even if it didn't have guests aboard.  Crew gets paid.  Fuel still needs to be burned, or docking fees need to be paid.  Plus, look at the cost in terms of goodwill.

 

I can attest that Viking has sailed with around a hundred guests aboard.   Recently flew on an AA A321 with 187 seats and about 40 people onboard.  They didn't make money on that flight, but the aircraft needed to be at the destination.  So the flight operated as normal.

 

And FWIW, I remember flying on a flight years ago where there were 11 people on an aircraft seating over 200.  Flight went as scheduled.   And a flight on a 727 with 4 people onboard.  Never got to have a solo experience.

 

 

[trtog7]

31 minutes ago, Jim Avery said:

That is a good question.  Lois & I have discussed the same.  I have heard of one Viking sailing with 230 or so and there is no way to make a profit for sure but some cash flow is better than none.  The logistics of supply on cruise ships was insanely complicated in the best of times.  How do you make sure you have the food necessary but not so much there is massive waste for just one example.  At some point the cruise lines with the least restrictive policies will start pulling ahead.

Disagree about "least restrictive policies". Would not cruise on ship that was not fully vaccinated.

[amyr]

25 minutes ago, FlyerTalker said:

Never.  At least in my 20+ years of cruise experience and even longer dealing with travel.

 

It's the same as people saying that airline flights get cancelled for the sole reason that there aren't enough people onboard.  That fails to recognize that the aircraft, and crew, need to be at the next destination - in order to be able to then serve THAT flight, plus the continued rotation of aircraft and crew.  Schedule interruption is never good - there are too many interconnected pieces to the operational puzzle.

 

 

 

 

As someone who had a 25 year airline career, I can attest to this.  In addition to what's mentioned above, there are other factors including US Mail contracts and cargo involved.  

 

In 25 years I never had a flight cancel for lack of passengers, and I flew around in a lot of late night empty-ish airplanes.  We once flew from a hub to Orange County with four passengers and brought back two, and one of those was a nonrev.  It was the same airplane, pilots, and flight attendants doing the turn-around, and even we were scratching our heads as to why.  It seemed like it would have been much cheaper to put the four passengers on the Ontario flight two gates down and arrange a limo for them back to Santa Ana, but we were happy to do as we were told and enjoy the easy day.  We put everybody in first class and gave them a good ride.  🙃

 

I think ships are the same way.  If it's on the schedule, it's going to sail regardless.  Might as well take your 200 passengers out, otherwise the ship would just be puttering around offshore empty waiting for the next week, and I can't imagine that is any good either?  

Edited December 10, 2021 by amyr

[Jim Avery]

Didn't mean no vax.  We are vaxxed and my entire lifetime I have had to get one vax or another for travel  to various places.  I refer to the spitting in tubes, "social" distancing (an oxymoron??) and the useless, endless masking.  I want to see faces, expressions, etc.  Some ships are already sailing this way.  No Viking until they drop the excess..

[bottomfeeder]

28 minutes ago, Jim Avery said:

Didn't mean no vax.  We are vaxxed and my entire lifetime I have had to get one vax or another for travel  to various places.  I refer to the spitting in tubes, "social" distancing (an oxymoron??) and the useless, endless masking.  I want to see faces, expressions, etc.  Some ships are already sailing this way.  No Viking until they drop the excess..

You've been quite vocal about your opinion on this, and I'm sure there are a good number of others who share that opinion.  The question the cruise lines have to wrestle with in this environment of clashing opinions on these sorts of questions is whether there are more people in their target market who refuse to cruise with these restrictions or more people who will not cruise without these restrictions?

 

And I don't know the answer to that.  It's a quandary for the marketing folks to figure out, I guess (and of course, whatever medical/scientific experts Viking consults with.)  But whatever they do they'll have some significant segment of their pre-Covid market disagreeing with the policy they implement.

 

For what it's worth, I'm on the side of the more Covid mitigation measures, the better.  Just in case someone from Viking is monitoring this forum and keeping score!  🙂

[jonthomas]

Thank you for all your thoughts on this.

[deec]

Jim,

We could see crew smiles even under the masks!!!  I liked the restrictions and wish Viking would not have self serve buffets...but I think that in the best of times!!!  I am unhappy when things close for NORO virus too!

[Heidi13]

5 hours ago, jonthomas said:

Im sure no one knows the answer to that. But there may be opinions.

 

We are 24 days out, sailing on Jan 2. If you decided to cancel, would you do it, 14 days out, 7 or 24 hours?

 

Again all opinions are welcome.

 

In over 40 years at sea working on cruise ships and Ro/Pax, I have never seen a sailing cancelled due to low pax count. I have sailed late at night with no pax. As per other responses, I have to return the ship to home port.

 

As a pax, I have sailed on a Viking ship with only 8 pax.

 

When sailings are cancelled, the ship's operations, maintenance and amortisation costs continue. In hot layup, they still require 80 to 100 crew just to keep the ship safe & operational. To disembark hotel crew also costs money, as Viking must pay for repatriation flights. When crew are laid-off, they tend to find other employment, so when business resumes the cruise line would have extensive recruitment and training costs.

 

Even if a ship has no pax, it must pay for docking fees and the myriad of additional fees charged to shipowners when navigating a coastline or docking.

 

Therefore, financially and schedule wise, it is better to maintain normal operations than cancel a specific cruise. 

 

 

[Peregrina651]

3 hours ago, bottomfeeder said:

For what it's worth, I'm on the side of the more Covid mitigation measures, the better.  Just in case someone from Viking is monitoring this forum and keeping score!  🙂

 

Ditto. The more masking, distancing and testing, the happier I am.

 

However, I am not convinced anymore that a "bubble" is as effective as it was originally thought to be. If masking and distancing while on the bus is not enforced (and some guides are reluctant if not completely negligent in that regard), then I'd rather wander around town on my own. At least then I'm not confined on a bus with no control over who I am with and how they are not complying.

 

 

[KBs mum]

The bubbles are partially to allow pax to enter countries without quarantine in hotels. Eg Italy, where if arriving from certain countries there is/was a 5 day quarantine, as part of a bubble this was waived. 

Admittedly Viking stuck to this longer than other lines, but it means they can use 'in transit' exemptions. 

All the covid testing covers the various PCR prior to arrival requirements that most of the countries visited have, and means they can stop an outbreak before it gets going. They can also report no communicable diseases to the port or other relevant. authorities and back it up with proof. 

 

I don't mind masks, no problem after the hazardous materials gear I had to wear for work in the past. Social distancing just means staying a couple of paces away from people, the amount of space on the Viking ships it's rare to be closer than that ordinarily

 

 

Edited December 10, 2021 by KBs mum

[Twitchly]

1 hour ago, Peregrina651 said:

 

Ditto. The more masking, distancing and testing, the happier I am.

 

However, I am not convinced anymore that a "bubble" is as effective as it was originally thought to be. If masking and distancing while on the bus is not enforced (and some guides are reluctant if not completely negligent in that regard), then I'd rather wander around town on my own. At least then I'm not confined on a bus with no control over who I am with and how they are not complying.

 

 

The “bubble” is the biggest deterrent for us. Though that’s usually up to the country, not Viking. I personally think the other measures Viking is using — the daily testing, masking, etc. — are overkill, and I’d be happy to see them reduced. But I realize many choose Viking because the measures make them feel safe. 

We booked next month’s cruise 9 months ago, assuming the world would be in a different place by 2022. Whoops. I hope we get to go, in spite of the various restrictions. But I don’t think we’ll book any more cruises for a while.

[LindaS272]

1 hour ago, Twitchly said:

The “bubble” is the biggest deterrent for us. Though that’s usually up to the country, not Viking. I personally think the other measures Viking is using — the daily testing, masking, etc. — are overkill, and I’d be happy to see them reduced. But I realize many choose Viking because the measures make them feel safe. 

We booked next month’s cruise 9 months ago, assuming the world would be in a different place by 2022. Whoops. I hope we get to go, in spite of the various restrictions. But I don’t think we’ll book any more cruises for a while.

I have no trouble with masking and social distancing, if enforced. But I question the daily testing on ships with all vaxxed pax and crew, and some of us even with boosters or 3rd shots. The masking and distancing are enough.

[Jim Avery]

10 minutes ago, LindaS272 said:

I have no trouble with masking and social distancing, if enforced. But I question the daily testing on ships with all vaxxed pax and crew, and some of us even with boosters or 3rd shots. The masking and distancing are enough.

I am still waiting for someone to explain to me how masks help when you wear them from the entrance to the restaurant all the way to a table, then spend the next two hours eating and drinking unmasked.  Sorry, I am just a simple person but that really seems silly.

[zalusky]

39 minutes ago, Jim Avery said:

I am still waiting for someone to explain to me how masks help when you wear them from the entrance to the restaurant all the way to a table, then spend the next two hours eating and drinking unmasked.  Sorry, I am just a simple person but that really seems silly.

Well the original assumption is that you stay in your socially distance bubble st the table.  However that assumes they took out tables to maintain the 6 foot distance.   That of course is baloney in a lot of places like our local Hockey arena wheee you can eat at your seat next to an unmasked person.

[FlyerTalker]

47 minutes ago, Jim Avery said:

I am still waiting for someone to explain to me how masks help when you wear them from the entrance to the restaurant all the way to a table, then spend the next two hours eating and drinking unmasked.  Sorry, I am just a simple person but that really seems silly.

 

It helps the same way that taking away your water bottle at the TSA checkpoint makes your flight safer.

 

Oh, and don't forget taking off your shoes as well.  That's another big help.

[Jim Avery]

Just now, FlyerTalker said:

 

It helps the same way that taking away your water bottle at the TSA checkpoint makes your flight safer.

 

Oh, and don't forget taking off your shoes as well.  That's another big help.

Now that explains it.  TSA always makes me feel safer.....

[LindaS272]

3 hours ago, Jim Avery said:

I am still waiting for someone to explain to me how masks help when you wear them from the entrance to the restaurant all the way to a table, then spend the next two hours eating and drinking unmasked.  Sorry, I am just a simple person but that really seems silly.

I did say masking and social distancing—if enforced.

[FlyerTalker]

1 hour ago, LindaS272 said:

I did say masking and social distancing—if enforced.

 

And Jim's scenario of walking masked, then sitting unmasked, is exactly how it is enforced.

 

 

[BigBee51]

I thank dog every time I take a flight that TSA still lets passengers keep their underwear on (recall the infamous 'underwear bomber' some years ago)

[Jim Avery]

I guess the world has not gone TOTALLY crazy.........Yet......

[LindaS272]

10 hours ago, FlyerTalker said:

 

And Jim's scenario of walking masked, then sitting unmasked, is exactly how it is enforced.

 

 

But social distancing is critical.

[IWantToLiveOverTheSea]

On 12/10/2021 at 12:07 PM, bottomfeeder said:

You've been quite vocal about your opinion on this, and I'm sure there are a good number of others who share that opinion.  The question the cruise lines have to wrestle with in this environment of clashing opinions on these sorts of questions is whether there are more people in their target market who refuse to cruise with these restrictions or more people who will not cruise without these restrictions?

 

And I don't know the answer to that.  It's a quandary for the marketing folks to figure out, I guess (and of course, whatever medical/scientific experts Viking consults with.)  But whatever they do they'll have some significant segment of their pre-Covid market disagreeing with the policy they implement.

 

For what it's worth, I'm on the side of the more Covid mitigation measures, the better.  Just in case someone from Viking is monitoring this forum and keeping score!  🙂

Some people complain about too many restrictions on Viking, particularly with daily testing.  However, what I think some people fail to think about is what happens if you're on a cruise overseas and are not tested throughout the whole cruise.  Then, assuming you're an American, you have to be tested to get on a flight back to the U.S. (not sure about rules in other countries).  By then, for those ships with no testing during the cruise, it's going to be likely that at least more than just a few people will test positive and have to go into quarantine in a foreign country.  And that is something that many people fear.  With Omicron, I don't think very many ships are going to have NO passengers testing positive after a cruise. Even the transatlantic Queen Mary or whatever ship it is that just came into NYC after mostly or perhaps all sea days had a few positives to deal with.  And the ships that left from Florida ports and are cruising in the Caribbean are having a rougher time than most cruise lines.  And Royal Caribbean has put some bookings on hold for a while.

 

So I have NO problem with Viking's protocols.  I haven't been monitoring all cruise lines and itineraries.  But it certainly seems like Viking is faring much better than most lines, so I applaud them.  In the grand scheme of things, wearing a mask and providing a daily saliva sample is a small price to pay to be able to cruise safely right now, and to not worry if I'm going to be stuck inside a hotel overseas for up to 2 weeks or more.