Will Cruising Ever Recover

[mcrcruiser]

Carnival stock has tanked below $10 per share .We all know the reasons why but is this a  sign for the future of this industry ? 

[FlaMariner]

Do your part and book a cruise!

 

We think it is the best time to cruise.

 

Savor the journey.....as HAL says.

[MISTER 67]

We are doing our part, cruising on the Equinox on Aug. 7th, our 5th cruise since last Thanksgiving, we are also booked on the Nieuw Amsterdam for Dec. 4th.

[mcrcruiser]

3 minutes ago, FlaMariner said:

Do your part and book a cruise!

 

We think it is the best time to cruise.

 

Savor the journey.....as HAL says.

Unfortunately we are 83 with medical underlying conditions .Therefore we no longer feel safe  on any cruise ship . We did our part during pre covid with taking 87 cruises   .

  For those who feel confident in their safety we hope that they enjoy all their cruises

[BermudaBound2014]

30 minutes ago, mcrcruiser said:

Unfortunately we are 83 with medical underlying conditions .Therefore we no longer feel safe  on any cruise ship . We did our part during pre covid with taking 87 cruises   .

  For those who feel confident in their safety we hope that they enjoy all their cruises

 

This is exactly why I maintain a short position.

 

IMO cruising will always be available, but it is likely going to look quite different than what we were blessed with pre-covid. Current debt loads will need to be addressed through restructuring. I no longer see a way around it.

 

According to CLIA, Millennials are driving the future of the market. 

 

https://cruising.org/-/media/clia-media/research/2022/clia-state-of-the-cruise-industry-2022_updated.ashx

 

Edited July 15, 2022 by BermudaBound2014

[Sir PMP]

If they remove all barriers and focus on small and mid size ships, there will be a future.

[MISTER 67]

1 hour ago, Sir PMP said:

If they remove all barriers and focus on small and mid size ships, there will be a future.

What barriers, not being a smartass, just curious.

Agree on small and mid-sized ships.

 

Edited July 15, 2022 by MISTER 67

[kangforpres]

Cruising like all the other travel industries will not "recover" to before pandemic performance. For one thing the Pandemic is still ongoing and expected to last another 2 years. Secondly, the industry was bloated and over-reaching for customers and was growing unsustainably.  Some lines have adjusted and will survive, some others may not.

 

Thirdly, the labor force for cruising is made up of employees from the developing world who may not want to return to that type of work. They are away from home for 10 months at a time when the world is awash in multiple crisis's.

[Sir PMP]

1 hour ago, MISTER 67 said:

What barriers, not being a smartass, just curious.

Agree on small and mid-sized ships.

 

Testing, vacs, masks etc.

[Sir PMP]

40 minutes ago, kangforpres said:

Cruising like all the other travel industries will not "recover" to before pandemic performance. For one thing the Pandemic is still ongoing and expected to last another 2 years. Secondly, the industry was bloated and over-reaching for customers and was growing unsustainably.  Some lines have adjusted and will survive, some others may not.

 

Thirdly, the labor force for cruising is made up of employees from the developing world who may not want to return to that type of work. They are away from home for 10 months at a time when the world is awash in multiple crisis's.

Another 2 years? Then the cruise industry will be gone...

[MISTER 67]

5 minutes ago, Sir PMP said:

Testing, vacs, masks etc.

Unfortunately, I think they're still going to be with us for awhile, lot of cases popping up with the new strain.

[rodndonna]

41 minutes ago, Sir PMP said:

Another 2 years? Then the cruise industry will be gone...

 

If that is the case, do you think as a result, 5 or 10 years in the future, no one would be cruising anymore? That is the only way the 'cruise industry' would be gone.  

[Mary229]

2 hours ago, rodndonna said:

 

If that is the case, do you think as a result, 5 or 10 years in the future, no one would be cruising anymore? That is the only way the 'cruise industry' would be gone.  

I think the cruise lines will go under if we are going to maintain this ridiculous zero Covid policy.  I think they are still capable of a recovery.  I don’t necessarily thing the industry model of the past 15 years of mega ships and low cost family vacations can be sustained.  

[kangforpres]

3 hours ago, Sir PMP said:

Another 2 years? Then the cruise industry will be gone...

That's the WHO's and other medical authorities estimate. But the industry is squeaking by for now. Just can't have another variant that is deadly and hospitalizes lots of people.

[Sir PMP]

3 hours ago, rodndonna said:

 

If that is the case, do you think as a result, 5 or 10 years in the future, no one would be cruising anymore? That is the only way the 'cruise industry' would be gone.  

You may want to cruise, but the ships and crew will be gone

[sergel02]

1 minute ago, mcrcruiser said:

 

The cruise lines had committed to mega sized ships long before the pandemic . This is their problem as we speak . High debt factors & low sales just can not sustain itself 

As far as the virus goes it will never disappear just like the the flu each year .New strains constantly appear 

Wonder if lines will move back towards smaller ships in the future.

[aliaschief]

5 minutes ago, sergel02 said:

Wonder if lines will move back towards smaller ships in the future.

Probably not and that is why we have been booking and leaning toward Azamara.

[Nymich]

I can't pull the wagon without some help!

22 days in 2021

29 days in 2022 with 59 days of cruising still left this year!

We wanted to make up for being robbed of 2020 and we have........and then some!

Edited July 16, 2022 by Nymich

[S. Cobbler]

HAL is starting to look like the Oldsmobile of CCL.

 

And then maybe Princess is Pontiac.

[Wakepatrol]

When I read these boards. How can the cruise ships make any money.? There’s the camp that wants money back after final payment when the crumby undesirable cabins are sold off cheap. Then there’s the gang that wants to bring their own water soda wine. Then god forbid you miss a port, there’s the camp that wants a free cruise  in  a Neptune suite.. Almost forgot, the long line at the desk the last day of the cruise to remove the auto gratuities. How do they make any money?. 

[leerathje]

I have an 11 day Caribbean cruise booked for end of November. I live in British Columbia, Canada, and I'm concerned I'm going to have a problem getting to Fort Lauderdale, never mind cruise the Caribbean.

 

I was on a 7 day Mexico cruise in March leaving from San Diego, and travel was much easier then.

 

L.

[Florida_gal_50]

13 hours ago, mcrcruiser said:

 

The cruise lines had committed to mega sized ships long before the pandemic . This is their problem as we speak . High debt factors & low sales just can not sustain itself 

As far as the virus goes it will never disappear just like the the flu each year .New strains constantly appear 

That’s the problem?  Ever heard of economies of scale?  That’s why hal sold off the smallest ships in the fleet even though some think that these ships were so profitable.

[dockman]

Will cruising EVER recover?  

 

Ever is a long long time.  While there may well be many changes as well as restructuring all of the ships are not going to end up as scrap.

 

As hotel prices , car rentals, airfares, continue to shoot through the roof and land based trips get more and more expensive and full of the hassles of traffic, airports, restaurants, etc  cruise lines that offer more value and less hassles will always have a market potential of millions of customers.  What adjustments the cruise line execs will make remains to be seen.

 

Never say never.

[willoL]

For our family, the continuation of COVID precautions is THE ONLY REASON we are willing to sail next month. Not everyone hates these policies, though I agree 100% that pre-cruise testing, for example, should be a swab taken at the port, immediately before one boards, and it should be arranged by the cruise line itself to both standardize the testing and make it less complex for passengers.

 

Going forward, I would have no problem with cruise lines differentiating themselves by their hygiene policies. If there's a line with zero testing, you can sail with them; I'll pick a more health-conscious option if it exists, or I will revert to a different kind of vacation. I've really enjoyed the cruises I've taken, and I hope to take more, but I could live without it.

 

Realistically, there will still be a cruise industry in a decade, of some sort. What could quite realistically happen is that cruising ceases to be a cheap holiday available to the masses. The American middle class is shrinking; people earning below the median may not be able to afford cruising in the future, they way most people could not a few decades ago. Not everyone in the upper 20% is rich enough for a private yacht, so some of these people will probably keep cruising.

 

If low wage workers from poorer nations aren't willing to sail on ships where they may get ill, that will be a factor. If low unemployment continues in wealthy nations, other jobs may open up and be more attractive to the same pool of potential employees.

[Mary229]

32 minutes ago, ldtr said:

While testing and quarantine might go away as a cruise ship requirement, vaccination is probably here to stay for at least the next few years.

I agree.  Vaccinations have always been a requirement for some cruises and other societal/travel activities.  It is an easy requirement to administer and comply with.