RCCL stock price

[BigAl94]

1 hour ago, Fly and Sail said:

Quite frankly they probably shouldn't even bother to Revolutionize a 20 year old ship such as Solstice and instead invest in another E-Class.

14 years old which is relatively modern, not even halfway through service

[rj59]

It’s not just inflation or recession, but also decrease in house/stock/bond household wealth that cause people to cut back on discretionary spending, especially retirees. Covid fears/annoyances are still active on cruises (sip-and-cover signs at bars on a 3-nt Princess cruise last week). I also think there’s an oversupply of ships, with so many in the US now due to much of Asia closed and Aus/NZ just opening, so I saw 10 or so ships in Mexico this week, when before shutdowns there were only a handful (Celebrity/RC only started here last year). Finally, price-conscious solo passengers like me have gotten used to low fares the past year, so if lines try to increase fares significantly to increase profits, I’ll cruise less, especially since full ships make the experience less pleasant, after luxurious 30/40% occupancy.

[njguy_south]

On 9/30/2022 at 10:59 AM, Arizona Wildcat said:

The fares with RCCL are held in a trust account.  Crystal did not do that as a privately held company was not required to do so.

That isn't quite true. Those who lost money were those who took future cruise credit when cruises were cancelled.  Crystal cruisers who decided to take the refund when a cruise was cancelled (as I did) received a full refund. It was explained to me by the credit card company that payments were not released to Crystal until AFTER the cruise was delivered. My two cancelled Crystal cruises were fully refunded.

[Lastdance]

One thing for sure is that it will be a bumpy course going forward, but it has been that way for quite some time.  I have 8 cruises booked, but taking two very soon, along with another forthcoming.  All my cruises are on E-class, so yes, I am one of those who likes new builds and owns the stock.  I do what I'm good at...riding things out and not reading too much into anything except  being cognizant of facts.  Opinions are all over the place and for some, the sky is always falling...life is a precious resource and my glass is half full.

[C-Dragons]

8 minutes ago, Lastdance said:

One thing for sure is that it will be a bumpy course going forward, but it has been that way for quite some time.  I have 8 cruises booked, but taking two very soon, along with another forthcoming.  All my cruises are on E-class, so yes, I am one of those who likes new builds and owns the stock.  I do what I'm good at...riding things out and not reading too much into anything except  being cognizant of facts.  Opinions are all over the place and for some, the sky is always falling...life is a precious resource and my glass is half full.

Hear, hear! 👍 😁

Edited October 1, 2022 by C-Dragons

[Fly and Sail]

1 hour ago, BigAl94 said:

14 years old which is relatively modern, not even halfway through service

 

Solstice is a wreck. Just got off it in May. YMMV

[Denny01]

3 minutes ago, Fly and Sail said:

 

Solstice is a wreck. Just got off it in May. YMMV

Solstice is in fine shape. Just got off it in July.

 

Our personal opinions and our personal biases all show up on these forums…..including discussions on finance (which I look to a professional financial manager for, not posts here), medical advice (which I look to my DR for, not posts here) and quality of dining, SRs and ships (which I may….May…look to posts here for info).

 

I look at these forums to get good advice on itineraries which I then get another professional, my TA to confirm and on tours and so on.

 

Den

Edited October 1, 2022 by Denny01

[marieps]

On 9/30/2022 at 1:16 PM, Baron Barracuda said:

 

"The cruise operator's cumulative advance bookings for the current quarter are below the historical range and at lower prices"

 

Meanwhile over at X, despite not being a gambler Blue Chip Club keeps sending me free cruise offers.  Last one was good on 70 4q '23 Caribbean sailings.  Must be lots of empty cabins.

They're really interested in empty wallets.  Yours and our fellow BCC members.  I was thrilled to get these offers having just hit Onyx, but haven't taken advantage yet.

[intr3pid]

10 hours ago, Fly and Sail said:

Quite frankly they probably shouldn't even bother to Revolutionize a 20 year old ship such as Solstice and instead invest in another E-Class.

 

A new Edge build costs upwards of $1 billion.  The 'revolutionizing' of Millennium and Summit cost $50-$80 million each.  You get a third more capacity with Edge, but that's currently going largely unused.  Apples to apples, Summit and Apex are quoting very similar fares per night for Florida sailings six months out.

 

Moreover, every new Edge build also adds 1500 new cabins to an already over-supplied market.

 

As a shareholder, I want them to pause any new builds and re-focus on the refurbishments. 

[D C]

1 hour ago, intr3pid said:

 

A new Edge build costs upwards of $1 billion.  The 'revolutionizing' of Millennium and Summit cost $50-$80 million each.  You get a third more capacity with Edge, but that's currently going largely unused.  Apples to apples, Summit and Apex are quoting very similar fares per night for Florida sailings six months out.

 

Moreover, every new Edge build also adds 1500 new cabins to an already over-supplied market.

 

As a shareholder, I want them to pause any new builds and re-focus on the refurbishments. 

Well said. More capacity on expensive, controversial ships is not where they should be heading right now. 

 

Edge class ships really have nothing new compared to the others in the fleet.  Different decor, yes. New, no. 

[Ommadawn]

On 9/30/2022 at 1:56 PM, D C said:

Makes the RoI on a stock ownership OBC pretty nice.  $100 OBC for ~$700 invested

 

How many shares of stock do you need to take advantage of the On-Board Credit?

[canderson]

1 hour ago, Ommadawn said:

 

How many shares of stock do you need to take advantage of the On-Board Credit?

100

 

[DirtyDawg]

13 hours ago, intr3pid said:

 

A new Edge build costs upwards of $1 billion.  The 'revolutionizing' of Millennium and Summit cost $50-$80 million each.  You get a third more capacity with Edge, but that's currently going largely unused.  Apples to apples, Summit and Apex are quoting very similar fares per night for Florida sailings six months out.

 

Moreover, every new Edge build also adds 1500 new cabins to an already over-supplied market.

 

As a shareholder, I want them to pause any new builds and re-focus on the refurbishments. 

If you feel strongly enough you can put together a shareholder proposal to do exactly this to be voted on by your fellow shareholders at the next annual meeting. 

[Kilroyshere]

On 10/1/2022 at 12:17 AM, cruiseerf said:

I am waiting to see who MSC buys?  They are Cash Rich....privately owned and the Shipping side of MSC prints their own $$$.  They are the 2nd largest ocean shipping company in the world with 700 ships!   Besides growing their own cruise footprint dramatically over the last few years,  why not pick up one of the established cruislines cheap and give them the toehold in the Caribbean they are gaming for?  I am sure they must  be looking at this.   Time shall tell.  

 

Buy on rumors, sell on news.

 

The 3 major cruise line conglomerates (CCL, RCL, NCLH) now have all their ships back in service.

 

Carnival reported its 2Q earnings. The market didn't like the numbers. Traders missed that aside from rising costs (inflation and fuel) and a loss that was expected, CCL largely delivered good news.

 

• CCL revenue increased by nearly 80% in 3Q of 2022 compared to 2Q 2022, reflecting improvement.
• Onboard and other revenue for 3Q of 2022 increased significantly compared to a strong 2019.

• Total customer deposits were $4.8 billion as of August 31, 2022, approaching the $4.9 billion as of August 31, 2019, which was a record third quarter.

• CCL sold $1.15 billion in new stock during the quarter. The company has over $7.4 billion in liquidity.

 

I'd not sell short any of the 3 major cruise lines.

 

Assuming there's no virus resurgence variant that closes down travel and, inflation slows that have hammered everyone's fuel prices, food, fertilizer, transportation, etc, this downturn is a major share buying opportunity as well as M&A cash rich equity firms looking to snap up Crown Jewel Cruise Line assets on sale and cheap IMO!

 

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by Kilroyshere
spelling

[canderson]

37 minutes ago, Kilroyshere said:

I'd not sell short any of the 3 major cruise lines.

Me, either, but it'd also be really hard, for me at least, to come up with good expiration dates for RCCL calls, and premiums are crazy.  Have no sense of the potential momentum at the moment, just the direction.

 

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/RCL/options/

 

Edited October 2, 2022 by canderson

[Kilroyshere]

12 minutes ago, canderson said:

Me, either, but it'd also be really hard, for me at least, to come up with good expiration dates for RCCL calls, and premiums are crazy.  Have no sense of the potential momentum at the moment, just the direction.

 

https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NYSE/RCL/options/

 

 

CCL, RCL and NCLH viability is completely removed from buying/selling options on these equities.

 

I believe the 3 major cruise lines will weather this storm and prosper. CCL diluted their stock and has a large cash war chest.

 

Nobody can predict ship fuel costs with Russia/Putin, the midterm outcome, macro and unpredictable Black Swan events all pushing fuel prices up and down.

 

Inflation is going to remain...just too many dollars being put into the system with the current Fiscal and Monetary policies in place.

 

Food costs are up and going to stay up or rise further as fuel is such a large component of producing and shipping it.

 

Labor costs are up and that's sticky inflation that's difficult to reduce.

 

The public is hungry for vacations and normalcy. Cruising is one area that will have increased demand if the virus variants don't keep coming with restrictions and more fears. That's a factor nobody can predict. 

 

Long term, I'm a Buy on cruise lines.

 

Near term speculating on options, there are far better equities opportunities IMO ripe for sharp moves.

[NMTraveller]

4 hours ago, Kilroyshere said:

 

 

Carnival reported its 2Q earnings. The market didn't like the numbers. Traders missed that aside from rising costs (inflation and fuel) and a loss that was expected, CCL largely delivered good news.

 

• CCL revenue increased by nearly 80% in 3Q of 2022 compared to 2Q 2022, reflecting improvement.
• Onboard and other revenue for 3Q of 2022 increased significantly compared to a strong 2019.

• Total customer deposits were $4.8 billion as of August 31, 2022, approaching the $4.9 billion as of August 31, 2019, which was a record third quarter.

• CCL sold $1.15 billion in new stock during the quarter. The company has over $7.4 billion in liquidity.

 

 

 

Carnival has a lot of debt and it takes a lot of money to service their debt.  That is the problem with CCL.  It will take them quite a bit longer to get out from under their debt.  Who wants to wait?

[SusieAV8R]

22 hours ago, D C said:

Well said. More capacity on expensive, controversial ships is not where they should be heading right now. 

 

Edge class ships really have nothing new compared to the others in the fleet.  Different decor, yes. New, no. 

As a shareholder, I totally agree with your well thought out posting!!

[D C]

10 hours ago, Kilroyshere said:

 

Buy on rumors, sell on news.

 

The 3 major cruise line conglomerates (CCL, RCL, NCLH) now have all their ships back in service.

 

Carnival reported its 2Q earnings. The market didn't like the numbers. Traders missed that aside from rising costs (inflation and fuel) and a loss that was expected, CCL largely delivered good news.

 

• CCL revenue increased by nearly 80% in 3Q of 2022 compared to 2Q 2022, reflecting improvement.
• Onboard and other revenue for 3Q of 2022 increased significantly compared to a strong 2019.

• Total customer deposits were $4.8 billion as of August 31, 2022, approaching the $4.9 billion as of August 31, 2019, which was a record third quarter.

• CCL sold $1.15 billion in new stock during the quarter. The company has over $7.4 billion in liquidity.

 

I'd not sell short any of the 3 major cruise lines.

 

Assuming there's no virus resurgence variant that closes down travel and, inflation slows that have hammered everyone's fuel prices, food, fertilizer, transportation, etc, this downturn is a major share buying opportunity as well as M&A cash rich equity firms looking to snap up Crown Jewel Cruise Line assets on sale and cheap IMO!

 

 

It was always entertaining working for a large company when quarterly earnings would come out. 

 

 

 

Some headlines would be positive, others would be doom and gloom.   Stock tanks on improved earnings.  There really is no rhyme or reason. 

[grandgeezer]

47 minutes ago, D C said:

It was always entertaining working for a large company when quarterly earnings would come out. 

 

 

 

Some headlines would be positive, others would be doom and gloom.   Stock tanks on improved earnings.  There really is no rhyme or reason. 

Stocks tank on improved earnings when they match, or beat the estimates of the experts.

[Stockjock]

On 9/30/2022 at 9:17 PM, cruiseerf said:

I am waiting to see who MSC buys?  They are Cash Rich....privately owned and the Shipping side of MSC prints their own $$$.  They are the 2nd largest ocean shipping company in the world with 700 ships!   Besides growing their own cruise footprint dramatically over the last few years,  why not pick up one of the established cruislines cheap and give them the toehold in the Caribbean they are gaming for?  I am sure they must  be looking at this.   Time shall tell.  

Just got off of an MSC 10-night sailing out of Copenhagen.   I could be wrong, but I seriously doubt that MSC has interest in any of the other cruise lines.

First off, they're not selling.

But more importantly, MSC has a formula that is working.  They're building a ton of new ships that are very stylish and relatively eco-friendly.  Their cruise business is insulated by their successful shipping business, although high fuel prices and inflation do impact both sides of their shipping business.  But I'd be shocked if MSC has interest in anything except (maybe) an ultra-premium cruise line, although they are giving that segment a go with Explora.

Since I work for one of the big Wall Street firms, I can't comment on the stock issues other than to say that investors should never have more money in any one company than they can afford to lose.  Pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered.

[Kilroyshere]

On 9/30/2022 at 10:09 AM, weregoingcruising said:

Will a recession cause cruise fares to come down or cause cruise lines to file  bankrupcy?

The Big 3 cruise lines (CCL, RCCL & NCLH) are not Crystals.

 

That's an interesting question.

 

These are publicly traded companies. Their share value involves risk, doing deep due diligence, reading between the lines of public statements, having lotsa gray hair (experience) and elements of luck.

 

I’m a contrarian. I see great value buying a winter coat in the summer that’s deeply discounted, cheap and on sale when nobody wants em.

 

The future and viability of the cruise lines is the discussion here.

 

More Covid variants, macro world events, rising crude prices, politics, Black Swan and natural disasters, inflation, monetary/fiscal policy, regulations…all are unpredictable wild cards which could further impact the cruise industry to both up and downside.

 

Back to present day; The Big 3 Cruise Lines are Super Heavy Weights in the leisure industry worldwide. They've deep pockets, access to massive capital and, private equity firms are on the sidelines licking their chops to get pieces of the Cruising Crown Jewels on the cheap if that becomes an option as it has in the past with smaller operators.  

 

All 3 cruise companies have built/bought brands that target comparable and parallel segments of each other’s cruise markets from Super Premium e.g.; Seabourn (CCL), Regent (NCLH) & Silversea (RCCL), to the most Budget minded cruisers.

 

All have customer loyalty which these Cruise Critic Boards exemplify.

 

I don’t believe a financial discussion of the Big 3 viability involves talk about this newer ship v. older, nor a new special feature on this ship v. that older ship…that’s a Coke v. Pepsi discussion IMO.

 

I think the Big 3 survive with customer service, pricing, features, quality all changing due to Covid and now inflation...and not for the better IMO from this cruiser's point of view. Cruising as we knew it pre-Covid will not be back.

 

All just my opinion here and worth every cent ya paid for it.

 

 

[Denny01]

Wow, great advice: Sell!!!; Hold!; Buy More!. That is all great advice, and all based on ‘expert’ advice from posters I assume since they are giving others financial advice have in-depth knowledge of the Travel Business and Cruise Lines in particular. 

 

But I do wonder….just a bit after reading such posts such as “Edge class ships really have nothing new compared to the others in the fleet.  Different decor, yes. New, no.”…yeah right. I do wonder if those with that very strange view actually have cruised on E-Class. Have cruised 3 times on Edge and Apex and I’ll be very clear….it is Very Different well beyond decor than M- and S-Class ships.  Yeah all 3 have a pointy end and a blunt end and they float in the water, and……well I guess thats about it on commonality. 

 

I have stock in RCL, and CCL, not as a business decision, but for OBC. No matter how the stock goes, It would have to completely tank to make up for the OBC’s. I just got $250 for the upcoming cruise and $100 each for the following 4 upcoming. I was surprised I got documentation on the other 4 since they are many months ahead, and 2 are ~18mo ahead. 

 

No matter what some say, think or guess at, the ships appear, again Appear, to be filling up and filling quickly. Many of the Retreats are not available for cruises over a year from now, and standard SRs are doing just fine. That’s is based on a very limited look at SR availablily of the 5 Celebrity cruises I have booked. And I would Not base any financial decisions on any of what I posted…..I have No Idea, and I would not base Any Financial decision on Any of the posts here…..even ones I think made some sense. 

 

And yes, before anyone who posted their ‘opinion’ come back and insists they just posted what They would do and it isnt advice for others, that’s not how it is coming across. 

 

Den 

Edited October 4, 2022 by Denny01

[Kilroyshere]

On 10/2/2022 at 10:50 AM, canderson said:

...it'd also be really hard, for me at least, to come up with good expiration dates for RCCL calls, and premiums are crazy.  Have no sense of the potential momentum at the moment, just the direction.

 

 

 

BUMP

 

This thread was posted September 30, 2022.

 

Looking back on that thread discussion which invoked the Big 3 stock prices, had one invested (speculated) on the Big 3 Cruise line stocks since, you outperformed the S&P500 by over 400% (RCCL), as low as outperforming the S&P500 by approximately 150% (NCLH) and CCL outperformed the S&P500 by approximately 300%.

 

Closing Stock prices on 9/30/22:

RCL - $37.90

NCLH - $13.86

CCL - $7.03

S&P500: - 3,585

 

Closing Stock prices on Friday 12/2/22:

RCL - $60.51

NCLH - $16.54

CCL - $10.00

S&P500: - 3,585

 

61 Day Returns:

RCL - + 59.66%

NCLH - + 19.34%

CCL - +42.25%

S&P500: - +13.56%

 

I'm not in the Securities biz. I'm not giving advice. And my opinion posted back then that the Big 3 looked like winter coat bargains in the summer was pure luck I'm sure.

 

Now that winter is here, that nice coat must feel mighty fine...

[DirtyDawg]

On 10/3/2022 at 9:20 AM, Kilroyshere said:

The Big 3 cruise lines (CCL, RCCL & NCLH) are not Crystals.

 

That's an interesting question.

 

These are publicly traded companies. Their share value involves risk, doing deep due diligence, reading between the lines of public statements, having lotsa gray hair (experience) and elements of luck.

 

 

 

I’m a contrarian. I see great value buying a winter coat in the summer that’s deeply discounted, cheap and on sale when nobody wants em.

 

 

 

The future and viability of the cruise lines is the discussion here.

 

 

 

More Covid variants, macro world events, rising crude prices, politics, Black Swan and natural disasters, inflation, monetary/fiscal policy, regulations…all are unpredictable wild cards which could further impact the cruise industry to both up and downside.

 

 

 

Back to present day; The Big 3 Cruise Lines are Super Heavy Weights in the leisure industry worldwide. They've deep pockets, access to massive capital and, private equity firms are on the sidelines licking their chops to get pieces of the Cruising Crown Jewels on the cheap if that becomes an option as it has in the past with smaller operators.  

 

 

 

All 3 cruise companies have built/bought brands that target comparable and parallel segments of each other’s cruise markets from Super Premium e.g.; Seabourn (CCL), Regent (NCLH) & Silversea (RCCL), to the most Budget minded cruisers.

 

 

 

All have customer loyalty which these Cruise Critic Boards exemplify.

 

I don’t believe a financial discussion of the Big 3 viability involves talk about this newer ship v. older, nor a new special feature on this ship v. that older ship…that’s a Coke v. Pepsi discussion IMO.

 

I think the Big 3 survive with customer service, pricing, features, quality all changing due to Covid and now inflation...and not for the better IMO from this cruiser's point of view. Cruising as we knew it pre-Covid will not be back.

 

All just my opinion here and worth every cent ya paid for it.

 

 

 

 

I am also a contrarian and a value investor who was in the industry for over 30 years.  I agree, buy that winter coat in the summer that’s deeply discounted, cheap and on sale when nobody wants em.

 

But , and it's a big BUT, check closely for any moth holes deep inside or that winter coat might turn out to be only a decent fall coat. And the deep freeze of the winter is not here yet! 🥶

 

Edited December 3, 2022 by DirtyDawg