A Crystal Ball Question!!!

[cbfb]

We are interested in a Fall 2025 cruise in Europe. First time doing one in Europe. Since it’s more than 1 1/2 years away a lot can happen. 

Here is the dilemma. The price is good, IMO, $5300 for Aqua Class w/o perks.  The problem is the NRD is $900. We are cruising in May so if I wait and book it on the ship my understanding is the deposit would be $100 pp and a $150 OBC. So should I wait and hope the price doesn’t go up or book it now and chance losing the deposit? 

[Ex-Airbalancer]

17 minutes ago, cbfb said:

We are interested in a Fall 2025 cruise in Europe. First time doing one in Europe. Since it’s more than 1 1/2 years away a lot can happen. 

Here is the dilemma. The price is good, IMO, $5300 for Aqua Class w/o perks.  The problem is the NRD is $900. We are cruising in May so if I wait and book it on the ship my understanding is the deposit would be $100 pp and a $150 OBC. So should I wait and hope the price doesn’t go up or book it now and chance losing the deposit? 

Wait , There could be a Memorial Day sale when you cruise in May 

are you sure about the $150 OBC ? 

[cbfb]

2 minutes ago, Ex-Airbalancer said:

Wait , There could be a Memorial Day sale when you cruise in May 

are you sure about the $150 OBC ? 

That’s what I was thinking too. And I’m ok with losing $200 if we cancel but not $900. No, I’m not 100% sure of the OBC amount. I do know that you get “up to” $500. Last information I could find had $150. 

[prmssk]

I track all my cruises and very few of them go down.  I'm usually watch the price steadily increase.  And often the holiday sales are just playing with the numbers to convince people there is some great sale when in reality there isn't.  So I wouldn't count on a Memorial Day Sale saving you money.

 

All that said, you do have to make your own call about the risk of a higher NRD and your chances of needing to cancel.

[cbfb]

30 minutes ago, prmssk said:

I track all my cruises and very few of them go down.  I'm usually watch the price steadily increase.  And often the holiday sales are just playing with the numbers to convince people there is some great sale when in reality there isn't.  So I wouldn't count on a Memorial Day Sale saving you money.

 

All that said, you do have to make your own call about the risk of a higher NRD and your chances of needing to cancel.

Thank you for your response. I agree, prices rarely go down. Definitely part of my dilemma! Hoping it just stays steady!!!! 

[jelayne]

2 hours ago, Ex-Airbalancer said:

Wait , There could be a Memorial Day sale when you cruise in May 

are you sure about the $150 OBC ? 

The OBC for a 6-9 night cruise in a veranda, concierge or Aqua was $150.   

[Pinboy]

You are thinking about a cruise 1.5 years from now.

My suggestion:

What’s the rush? 
Wait until you are on your May cruise and purchase a “ Future Cruise Credit “ ( $200 —6 months to book a future cruise or you can get your money back—receive additional OBC ( amount depending on cabin accommodation and length of cruise— $100 deposit per person).

Based on our experience, it worked very well.

Another suggestion:

If you book with Celebrity, you have 90 days to transfer the reservation ( in its entirety) to Big Box Travel and receive about 8% back on a Gift Card after your cruise.

Been there, done that many times— never a problem.

 

 

 

 

[mahdnc]

3 hours ago, cbfb said:

We are interested in a Fall 2025 cruise in Europe. First time doing one in Europe. Since it’s more than 1 1/2 years away a lot can happen. 

Here is the dilemma. The price is good, IMO, $5300 for Aqua Class w/o perks.  The problem is the NRD is $900. We are cruising in May so if I wait and book it on the ship my understanding is the deposit would be $100 pp and a $150 OBC. So should I wait and hope the price doesn’t go up or book it now and chance losing the deposit? 

 

If I were given those two choices, I would pull the trigger now and lock in the good price.  Booking 1.5 years in advance is not a big deal for me.  It is not uncommon for me to book 2 years in advance.

[cbfb]

18 minutes ago, mahdnc said:

 

If I were given those two choices, I would pull the trigger now and lock in the good price.  Booking 1.5 years in advance is not a big deal for me.  It is not uncommon for me to book 2 years in advance.

Same for us. We book well in advance but I think this is the first $900 deposit I’ve put down. Although from what I’ve read I can transfer that to another booking less $200. Thank you for your thoughts. 

[PTC DAWG]

3 minutes ago, cbfb said:

Same for us. We book well in advance but I think this is the first $900 deposit I’ve put down. Although from what I’ve read I can transfer that to another booking less $200. Thank you for your thoughts. 

I am pretty sure that is correct..the Wife and I did just that last year when things went south in the Eastern Med..

Edited February 6 by PTC DAWG

[Jim_Iain]

I would go ahead and book if you reasonably feel that you will be taking the cruise (over 50/50).   If the price drops before final payment you can call in or call your agent and have them apply the price reduction (no charge).

 

The cost of $200 to change the booking to a different is fare less expensive than paying the non-refundable fare.    If the risk is high I would consider booking using a refundable fare and then cancel and rebook using the non-refundable fare closer to final payment date  ( but you risk the price going up).  

[cbfb]

7 minutes ago, Jim_Iain said:

I would go ahead and book if you reasonably feel that you will be taking the cruise (over 50/50).   If the price drops before final payment you can call in or call your agent and have them apply the price reduction (no charge).

 

The cost of $200 to change the booking to a different is fare less expensive than paying the non-refundable fare.    If the risk is high I would consider booking using a refundable fare and then cancel and rebook using the non-refundable fare closer to final payment date  ( but you risk the price going up).  

Thank you! I am going to try to make a decision this week!!! 

[Lastdance]

Also, you may want to have insurance to cover whatever you decide to put down, thus having a pre-existing waiver too.  Book it right after your downpayment, or at least within your allotted days.  Check your credit cards for possible insurance coverage too.  No need to cover the entire cruise at all.  If you wait until you board to book, you might decide that $200 is not a huge amount to lose.  Just look at the big picture and evaluate the facts.  Europe is wonderful with lots of educational ports, beauty, culture, history and...enjoy!

[realnice46]

I would book now with the refundable deposit, if price goes down when you are on your May cruise you could always cancel and rebook on the cruise.

[paulh84]

2 hours ago, Pinboy said:

Wait until you are on your May cruise and purchase a “ Future Cruise Credit “ ( $200 —6 months to book a future cruise or you can get your money back—receive additional OBC ( amount

 

The deposit on the Book Later certificate is now nonrefundable if you let it expire. 

 

Find a travel agency with a group rate and you don't have to pay the premium for the refundable deposit. 

[cbfb]

26 minutes ago, paulh84 said:

 

The deposit on the Book Later certificate is now nonrefundable if you let it expire. 

 

Find a travel agency with a group rate and you don't have to pay the premium for the refundable deposit. 

Good to know!! Thank you! 

[Tyler414]

3 hours ago, realnice46 said:

I would book now with the refundable deposit, if price goes down when you are on your May cruise you could always cancel and rebook on the cruise.

The "refundable" usually adds hundreds if not over $1000 to make it refundable, but not always.  I would only book refundable if it was about $200 more.  Why pay $1000 more for a cruise to potentially get your $900 deposit back?   I don't see the logic unless you are more than likely to cancel, if that's the case why even book it?

[JaneStarr]

4 hours ago, paulh84 said:

 

The deposit on the Book Later certificate is now nonrefundable if you let it expire. 

 

{{{{{Snip}}}

It seems that this could’ve changed back to fully refundable very very recently. The flyer attached to my Eclipse March 2, 2024 cruise documents shows it as refundable.

”If I do not pick a ship and sailing date within 1 year of booking, my deposit will be refunded.”

 

Please see attached.

Of course it’s always possible that Celebrity messed up and attached an incorrect Book Now/Book Later flyer to my eDocs. I just noticed that the copyright date at the bottom of the very fine print shows 2020. Ugh.
Jane

Edited February 6 by JaneStarr
Typo

[81Zoomie]

10 hours ago, cbfb said:

We are interested in a Fall 2025 cruise in Europe. First time doing one in Europe. Since it’s more than 1 1/2 years away a lot can happen. 

Here is the dilemma. The price is good, IMO, $5300 for Aqua Class w/o perks.  The problem is the NRD is $900. We are cruising in May so if I wait and book it on the ship my understanding is the deposit would be $100 pp and a $150 OBC. So should I wait and hope the price doesn’t go up or book it now and chance losing the deposit? 

How many days is your cruise, which ship, and where in Europe?  “Good” price depends on a lot of variables.  You may find that some TA’s include all the perks for less than Celebrity’s sail only rate.  That was our experience for Sep 2024.

Edited February 6 by 81Zoomie

[RealDeal]

19 minutes ago, 81Zoomie said:

How many days is your cruise, which ship, and where in Europe?  “Good” price depends on a lot of variables.  You may find that some TA’s include all the perks for less than Celebrity’s sail only rate.  That was our experience for Sep 2024.

Also, FYI, many TAs have not only better group/contracted rates but also offer refundable deposits...of course plus extra OBC. Check w/some reputable TAs. Also, I'm finding lately that a lot of TAs are saying the booking onboard benefit isn't combinable with their discounted rate. I guess you just have to determine what makes most sense.  

[Jim_Iain]

4 hours ago, paulh84 said:

 

The deposit on the Book Later certificate is now nonrefundable if you let it expire. 

 

Could you provide the source of your statement.  

I purchased 2 on Edge in December and the booking form clearly states where one signs -

*   To be eligible for the Onboad promotion of up to $500 OBC, I have 6 months to pick a ship and sailing date.

 

*   After 6 months I will no longer be able to take advantage of the onboard offer

 

*   If I don not pick a ship and sailing date within 6 months of booking , my deposit will be refunded.

 

[Jim_Iain]

3 minutes ago, RealDeal said:

Also, FYI, many TAs have not only better group/contracted rates but also offer refundable deposits...of course plus extra OBC. Check w/some reputable TAs. Also, I'm finding lately that a lot of TAs are saying the booking onboard benefit isn't combinable with their discounted rate. I guess you just have to determine what makes most sense.  

 

Almost always I book aboard and then transfer to my agent and receive aprox. 9% additional OBC.   Of course I am not expecting my agent to combine with a  group sailing.   

 

Just curious if you find Group Rates lower than 9% -  When I first started sailing the group rates I received were in the 5% range.   I really haven't looked in years.

[DaKahuna]

5 minutes ago, Jim_Iain said:

Just curious if you find Group Rates lower than 9% -  When I first started sailing the group rates I received were in the 5% range.   I really haven't looked in years.

 

@RealDeal  I am also interested in this answer.  My experiences mirrors Jim's. 

 

[mahdnc]

13 minutes ago, Jim_Iain said:

Could you provide the source of your statement.  

I purchased 2 on Edge in December and the booking form clearly states where one signs -

*   To be eligible for the Onboad promotion of up to $500 OBC, I have 6 months to pick a ship and sailing date.

 

*   After 6 months I will no longer be able to take advantage of the onboard offer

 

*   If I don not pick a ship and sailing date within 6 months of booking , my deposit will be refunded.

 

 

The current Book Later form that is on file in Celebrity's trade website is here.

 

Deposit for Book Later has to be Non Refundable.

After 6 months, you lose the booking onboard offer.

After 12 months, you lose your deposit.

 

The T&Cs change occurred in mid-Jan.

 

Edited February 6 by mahdnc

[RealDeal]

1 minute ago, DaKahuna said:

 

@RealDeal  I am also interested in this answer.  My experiences mirrors Jim's. 

 

Let me see if I can find some data. I can tell you this...for my bookings in 2025 & 2026, I did NOT go with my usual "very large" agency b/c they had NO group/contracted rates. So, yes I could've used my booking onboard & gotten that OBC and their 10% or whatever OBC, but it didn't come close to the benefit I reaped by booking with another agency that offered a much lower fare and SOME (not very high) OBC. I look at NET. I will try to offer up some hard numbers...