Uh-oh, "First-of-its-Kind Procedure?"

[jimbo5544]

1 minute ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

 

 

Jim, the latest quarterly report was released on June 20th - Carnival Corp's fiscal years ends Nov 30th.

 

It stated:

 

"Voyage disruptions related to Carnival Vista are expected to have a financial impact of approximately $0.08 to $0.10 per share."

 

http://www.carnivalcorp.com/phoenix.zhtml?c=140690&p=irol-newsArticle&id=2401917

 

Yes, I too was surprised at the immediacy of the news inclusion.

Thanks....shocking.  

[ProgRockCruiser]

8 hours ago, BNBR said:

 

It probably has to do with Carnival repackaging the same ship design for 20 years now. It's not working.  They can't get the fares of competitors because they aren't introducing anything new. Lower fares mean on board cutbacks, more and more of them. Which means even lower fares and cutbacks. It's a downward spiral.  I wouldn't even consider Carnival stock to hold.  I haven't seen any signs of them competing long term.

 

The latest earnings report does not mention any struggles with maintaining fare structure.  If anything, it sounds like they are doing just fine:

 

"At this time, cumulative advanced bookings for the remainder of the year are slightly ahead of the prior year at prices that are in line with the prior year on a comparable basis."

Edited June 26, 2019 by ProgRockCruiser
spelling/grammar

[N7786W Flyer]

7 hours ago, riffatsea said:

Agree that this is a good time to buy if you don't have any yet!

The perks for owning stock plus the dividend makes it still an attractive buy.

The reasons for the downturn were very specific and have nothing to do with the ideas above.

 

I agree....and to quote an old saying, if you're going to buy CCL stock, you need to "strike while the iron is hot".  The stock is currently trading at it's 52 week low....and while it declined again today, as each day that goes by, the losses seem to be diminishing.  By my figures, the drops have been as follows:

 

6/20 -7.39%

6/21 -4.29%

6/24 -1.30%

6/25 -1.15%

6/26 -0.15%

 

The "ship" seems to be righting itself...at least in the short term...we'll see what happens tomorrow.

 

Garnett

 

Edited June 26, 2019 by N7786W Flyer

[riffatsea]

2 hours ago, jimbo5544 said:

Earning report for a quarter was down due to one ship that just got a problem????  Can you point me to that?

 Just to be clear I said that ONE reason given was Vista.

Another reason was the cancelling of Cuba.

There were others that you can read in the link provided above but I didn't remember them.

[BNBR]

2 hours ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

 

The latest earnings report does not mention any struggles with maintaining fare structure.  If anything, it sounds like they are doing just fine:

 

"At this time, cumulative advanced bookings for the remainder of the year are slightly ahead of the prior year at prices that are in line with the prior year on a comparable basis."

 

Please note I said "long term" in my comment. Right now Carnival is well positioned. Cruise vacation demand has skyrocketed and Carnival has a large fleet. What I have said is that I can't see Carnival continuing their current trend long term. They are clearly being out competed and I don't see any changes on the horizon (pun intended). Their latest and greatest ships are poorly received, as expected. They are repackaging the same damn thing, just squeezing a little bit more in to the same space. Bad idea.  Note Vista and Dream are virtually the same size ship.... 

 

That and cut backs that are also positioning themselves as a value line... Not on the same level as competitors. I'm just not sure how sustainable that is. The costs to operate aren't that different, you can only cut so much.

 

Without some serious innovation and a real attempt to compete, it's hard to believe Carnival will have a great long term projection. Making the theater smaller and smashing a movie theater in just doesn't cut it anymore. 

[chengkp75]

On 6/25/2019 at 9:36 PM, amyotravel said:

Yup. Worried because cruise lines (not just Carnival) have thought the repairs worked and then come to find out there are more issues. I don't like that whatever this is has not been done before. I am hopefully on this ship in less than 3 months.

It is not that repairs have not worked, or that there are "more issues".  The data available for azipod life expectancy is from a very small sample size, so it is still evolving, and periodic failures are to be expected.

On 6/25/2019 at 10:20 PM, VentureMan_2000 said:

Well, I think you all are reading a lot into "a  first-of-its-kind procedure to facilitate the repair".

 

I read it as Carnival is working with commercial shipping companies to use their facilities as needed for emergency dry-dock repairs, instead of having to wait for a cruise ship dry dock to become available, such as the Grand Bahama Shipyard.

The negotiations is the contract piece.

There are no "cruise ship drydocks".  The vast majority of the time, the docks in Grand Bahamas Shipyard in Freeport are occupied by cargo vessels and not cruise ships.  I'm not even sure there is a drydock on the East coast that could handle the Vista, I'll have to check.  The problem with using a US shipyard is that the cost will be 2-3 times what any other shipyard outside the US would charge.

4 hours ago, gatour said:

 

Actually it was the second time that Royal used the procedure on the same class ship.  Allure was the first and it was successful

 

 

The thing that catches my eye is that Vista is a relatively new ship and thusly large.   All of the "large" dry docks on the East Coast are dedicated to supporting the US Navy.

 

While there are dry docks on the east coast to support the US registered commercial fleets, they are relatively small.  I am wondering if this "first of its kind procedure" would be utilizing one of the east commercial dry-docks much like what they were doing in regards to Oasis at Freeport.  I.E. lifting Vista's "butt" so they can access the azipods to replace the bearings.

 

Just speculation on my part.

I'm leaning towards them developing a cofferdam system to effect repairs.  They will build a large steel box, open on the top, that they will fill with water and sink under Vista's stern.  When positioned below an azipod, it will be raised until the top of the box contacts the hull and a rubber seal seals off the cofferdam.  They will then pump the water out of the cofferdam, and the water pressure around it will force it against the ship.  This is a little simplistic, it will likely a bit more sophisticated, but this is the general idea.  They can then cut a hole from the hull into the cofferdam, to access the azipod to make repairs.  These cofferdam repairs are common on offshore oil rigs that are too large to drydock.  It is a variant of the Grand Bahamas use of cofferdams fitted in the drydock.  It is safer than a "partial" lift with a floating drydock, but the access to the cofferdam will be more restrictive and hence more difficult to complete.

Edited June 27, 2019 by chengkp75

[riffatsea]

@BNBR

You do understand that the Carnival cruise ship line and the Carnival Corporation are 2 different entities! The Carnival line , where Vista is located, is merely one part of the larger corporation which of course is not just a "value" line! The stock report was the corporate stock and not a report just about the Carnival line within that corporation.

[LatinaInTexas]

Still got 80 days until I sail so not worried, but Im a planner so I have a backup Vegas vacation booked just in case anything comes up....

 

[gatour]

13 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

I'm leaning towards them developing a cofferdam system to effect repairs.  They will build a large steel box, open on the top, that they will fill with water and sink under Vista's stern.  When positioned below an azipod, it will be raised until the top of the box contacts the hull and a rubber seal seals off the cofferdam.  They will then pump the water out of the cofferdam, and the water pressure around it will force it against the ship.  This is a little simplistic, it will likely a bit more sophisticated, but this is the general idea.  They can then cut a hole from the hull into the cofferdam, to access the azipod to make repairs.  These cofferdam repairs are common on offshore oil rigs that are too large to drydock.  It is a variant of the Grand Bahamas use of cofferdams fitted in the drydock.  It is safer than a "partial" lift with a floating drydock, but the access to the cofferdam will be more restrictive and hence more difficult to complete.

Thanks chengkp75.  I had been mulling this over, and this morning before reading your reply, I had come up with the cofferdam solution, but I got stuck about how do they then actually fix the azipod.  Makes sense.

[jimbo5544]

15 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

It is not that repairs have not worked, or that there are "more issues".  The data available for azipod life expectancy is from a very small sample size, so it is still evolving, and periodic failures are to be expected.

There are no "cruise ship drydocks".  The vast majority of the time, the docks in Grand Bahamas Shipyard in Freeport are occupied by cargo vessels and not cruise ships.  I'm not even sure there is a drydock on the East coast that could handle the Vista, I'll have to check.  The problem with using a US shipyard is that the cost will be 2-3 times what any other shipyard outside the US would charge.

I'm leaning towards them developing a cofferdam system to effect repairs.  They will build a large steel box, open on the top, that they will fill with water and sink under Vista's stern.  When positioned below an azipod, it will be raised until the top of the box contacts the hull and a rubber seal seals off the cofferdam.  They will then pump the water out of the cofferdam, and the water pressure around it will force it against the ship.  This is a little simplistic, it will likely a bit more sophisticated, but this is the general idea.  They can then cut a hole from the hull into the cofferdam, to access the azipod to make repairs.  These cofferdam repairs are common on offshore oil rigs that are too large to drydock.  It is a variant of the Grand Bahamas use of cofferdams fitted in the drydock.  It is safer than a "partial" lift with a floating drydock, but the access to the cofferdam will be more restrictive and hence more difficult to complete.

Interesting, replacing all of the bearings in both complex?   Odds of success in the time period from your point of view?

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, jimbo5544 said:

Interesting, replacing all of the bearings in both complex?   Odds of success in the time period from your point of view?

Are they having problems with both azipods?  I'm assuming this is what you are asking, is how complex to renew bearings in both pods?  For all I know, they may have a cofferdam built that goes over the azipod, but then continues back beyond the stern of the ship, and rises above the waterline. This would allow an open access down into the cofferdam via crane, and would not require access from within the ship.  I think they have scheduled 3 weeks out of service?  Depending on the transit time from homeport to shipyard and back, which decreases time in the yard, three weeks may be tight for both azipods.

[jimbo5544]

2 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Are they having problems with both azipods?  I'm assuming this is what you are asking, is how complex to renew bearings in both pods?  For all I know, they may have a cofferdam built that goes over the azipod, but then continues back beyond the stern of the ship, and rises above the waterline. This would allow an open access down into the cofferdam via crane, and would not require access from within the ship.  I think they have scheduled 3 weeks out of service?  Depending on the transit time from homeport to shipyard and back, which decreases time in the yard, three weeks may be tight for both azipods.

I am pretty sure it just the port side, but think I read they were going to do both.  The wording used in the update seems..... specific.  All that said, I am not 100% sure. Thanks

[gatour]

I did some poking around the web.

 

Carnival Vista:  Length 322 meters, Beam 31 meters

 

Here are the Eastern US ports that have dry docks that seem to be large enough to hold the Carnival Vista.  I left out Newport News as I believe it is pretty much dedicated for Navy projects

 

Sparrow Pt/Baltimore  365m by 61m

 

These next three have the same length, not sure how much fudge factor do they require to accommodate a ship.

Bayonne:  333m by 45m

Brooklyn: 333m by 46m

Philadelphia:  2 dry docks at 333m by 45m.  However they seemed geared to do new builds

 

Boston:  351m by 38.1m

 

Like I said, I came up with this by poking around the web for 15-20 minutes, so can't vouch for the veracity of the figures or the willingness/availability to repair a cruise ship.

 

[chengkp75]

2 hours ago, gatour said:

I did some poking around the web.

 

Carnival Vista:  Length 322 meters, Beam 31 meters

 

Here are the Eastern US ports that have dry docks that seem to be large enough to hold the Carnival Vista.  I left out Newport News as I believe it is pretty much dedicated for Navy projects

 

Sparrow Pt/Baltimore  365m by 61m

 

These next three have the same length, not sure how much fudge factor do they require to accommodate a ship.

Bayonne:  333m by 45m

Brooklyn: 333m by 46m

Philadelphia:  2 dry docks at 333m by 45m.  However they seemed geared to do new builds

 

Boston:  351m by 38.1m

 

Like I said, I came up with this by poking around the web for 15-20 minutes, so can't vouch for the veracity of the figures or the willingness/availability to repair a cruise ship.

 

The Beth Steel Sparrows Point yard failed decades ago, and even when an attempt was made to revitalize it, the company went bankrupt in 2003.

 

No one in their right mind would try to shove a 322 meter ship in a 333 meter dock.  That is giving you 10 meters, or 33 feet of clearance, and you need at least that much astern of the ship for crane access and places to put big, heavy things like propellers.  They may try it, but I doubt it.  That scratches the Bayonne and Brooklyn yards.

 

While the Quincy yard in Boston has the length, with 3 meters on each side of the ship, it again becomes very difficult to dock, and access alongside the ship is very limited.  Since this would be a single item drydock, without any thought of painting or stabilizer maintenance, it could happen, depends on Boston Ship Repair's schedule.  They have done cruise ships around the Norwegian Dawn size, IIRC, about 2/3 the size of Vista.  

 

The docks you mention in Philly are owned by Philly Shipyard, and while dock #1 has been used for newbuilding, dock #2 has not been pumped out in decades, and is a fairly dedicated "wet dock" these days.  You are correct that Philly Shipyard is a newbuild yard, and has no ship repair experience.

 

I would think that using a US shipyard would be the last choice, as even building a cofferdam (which could be used by not only other Carnival ships, but if Grand Bahamas owns it, it can be used by other lines for revenue) would likely be less than the 3x the price that a US yard would charge.

 

As for "willingness to repair a cruise ship", when it comes to an item like this, there isn't any difference between a fancy cruise ship and an oil tanker.  It's hard, dirty work under the ship, and the ABB tech rep will be supplying the expertise.

Edited June 28, 2019 by chengkp75

[pcvtmom]

Chengkp75, as always, your expertise and informative answers are appreciated!

[gatour]

20 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

The Beth Steel Sparrows Point yard failed decades ago, and even when an attempt was made to revitalize it, the company went bankrupt in 2003.

 

No one in their right mind would try to shove a 322 meter ship in a 333 meter dock.  That is giving you 10 meters, or 33 feet of clearance, and you need at least that much astern of the ship for crane access and places to put big, heavy things like propellers.  They may try it, but I doubt it.  That scratches the Bayonne and Brooklyn yards.

 

While the Quincy yard in Boston has the length, with 3 meters on each side of the ship, it again becomes very difficult to dock, and access alongside the ship is very limited.  Since this would be a single item drydock, without any thought of painting or stabilizer maintenance, it could happen, depends on Boston Ship Repair's schedule.  They have done cruise ships around the Norwegian Dawn size, IIRC, about 2/3 the size of Vista.  

 

The docks you mention in Philly are owned by Philly Shipyard, and while dock #1 has been used for newbuilding, dock #2 has not been pumped out in decades, and is a fairly dedicated "wet dock" these days.  You are correct that Philly Shipyard is a newbuild yard, and has no ship repair experience.

 

I would think that using a US shipyard would be the last choice, as even building a cofferdam (which could be used by not only other Carnival ships, but if Grand Bahamas owns it, it can be used by other lines for revenue) would likely be less than the 3x the price that a US yard would charge.

 

As for "willingness to repair a cruise ship", when it comes to an item like this, there isn't any difference between a fancy cruise ship and an oil tanker.  It's hard, dirty work under the ship, and the ABB tech rep will be supplying the expertise.

I thought there would be length/width issues even if a ship could technically fit in a particular drydock.  Was hoping you would confirm or deny my thoughts, which you did

 

Definitely understand about the price being a major factor.  You have stated this in the past, and knowing how cruise lines operate in regards to expenses, I had no reason in the past and not now.

 

In retrospect, I should have left out the "willingness" paragraph.  You have pointed out in the past the tech rep would be on sight providing their expertise, and as you said there is no inherent difference between a cruise ship and a cargo ship.  They are just different in the cargo they carry.  Human vs goods/supplies, etc.

 

I went through this exercise, because it seems like every time a ship needs to an emergency drydock, some one suggests they use a US drydock.  You have to speak up and tell them that they are not as many around that can handle ships the size of modern cruise ships  as you might think.  Just wanted to put up some more facts.  However as you said cost is the ultimate deciding factor.

 

As I said before, again thanks for supplying your expertise to this board.

[chengkp75]

We engineers, who don't spend as much time shmoozing with the passengers as the deck officers, refer to cruise ships as "cargo ships with extraordinarily large waste treatment plants, and where the cargo can talk back to you".

 

Cruise lines will only use US yards when absolutely necessary, like on the West Coast, where there are only two yards in the US, and one in Canada (virtually the same from a cost standpoint).

[ProgRockCruiser]

Well, the method of repairs for Vista has now been annouced.  From John Heald's FB page (I will hunt down the press release shortly):

 

MIAMI (July 2, 2019) – Carnival Cruise Line announced today that Netherlands-based Boskalis, a worldwide leader in marine solutions, will deploy a transport vessel as a first of its kind “floating dry dock” facility to complete the repairs to Carnival Vista’s two azipods, the ship’s main propulsion system. The procedure will entail loading the ship onto a semi-submersible heavy transport vessel, Boka Vanguard, and then docking the vessel at the Grand Bahama shipyard for the repair work. 
A video animation detailing the “floating dry dock” process can be viewed here www.vimeo.com/boskalis/vista.
“This groundbreaking procedure made possible by Boskalis is a revolutionary way to ensure Carnival Vista’s repairs are completed in a safe, timely and efficient manner, so the ship can resume her popular seven-day schedule from Galveston later this month,” said Lars Ljoen, executive vice president of marine operations for Carnival Cruise Line. 
Boka Vanguard is expected to arrive in Bahamian waters on Friday, July 5 to prepare for Carnival Vista’s arrival on July 12. The loading, transport and repairs are expected to take approximately two weeks, allowing Carnival Vista to return to Galveston in time for her July 27 voyage and continue with year-round seven-day Caribbean itineraries.

 

Link to video, which is very cool!:

 

 

EDIT: here is the press release link:

 

https://carnival-news.com/2019/07/02/carnival-vistas-propulsion-system-to-be-repaired-using-first-of-its-kind-floating-dry-dock/

 

Edited July 2, 2019 by ProgRockCruiser

[Lee Cruiser]

22 minutes ago, ProgRockCruiser said:

Well, the method of repairs for Vista has now been annouced.  From John Heald's FB page (I will hunt down the press release shortly):

 

MIAMI (July 2, 2019) – Carnival Cruise Line announced today that Netherlands-based Boskalis, a worldwide leader in marine solutions, will deploy a transport vessel as a first of its kind “floating dry dock” facility to complete the repairs to Carnival Vista’s two azipods, the ship’s main propulsion system. The procedure will entail loading the ship onto a semi-submersible heavy transport vessel, Boka Vanguard, and then docking the vessel at the Grand Bahama shipyard for the repair work. 
A video animation detailing the “floating dry dock” process can be viewed here www.vimeo.com/boskalis/vista.
“This groundbreaking procedure made possible by Boskalis is a revolutionary way to ensure Carnival Vista’s repairs are completed in a safe, timely and efficient manner, so the ship can resume her popular seven-day schedule from Galveston later this month,” said Lars Ljoen, executive vice president of marine operations for Carnival Cruise Line. 
Boka Vanguard is expected to arrive in Bahamian waters on Friday, July 5 to prepare for Carnival Vista’s arrival on July 12. The loading, transport and repairs are expected to take approximately two weeks, allowing Carnival Vista to return to Galveston in time for her July 27 voyage and continue with year-round seven-day Caribbean itineraries.

 

Link to video, which is very cool!:

 

 

EDIT: here is the press release link:

 

https://carnival-news.com/2019/07/02/carnival-vistas-propulsion-system-to-be-repaired-using-first-of-its-kind-floating-dry-dock/

 

I watched that this morning.  Very interesting.  Hopefully it all goes well and cruises will go on as planned.

[chengkp75]

Okay, another method I hadn't thought of.  This ship used to be the Dockwise Vanguard, and was proposed to transport the Costa Concordia from Giglio island to the breaker's yard, but they decided on a different method.  Vista will fit between the wing walls of Boka Vanguard, and she has the ability to lift the weight of Vista, but she will still hang over, most likely the bow, so that there is a working platform under the azipods.  Should be interesting to see them maneuver this into Grand Bahamas.

[Micahs Grandad]

Very interesting thread. Guess not much of a warranty comes with new vessel.

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, Micah's Grandad said:

Very interesting thread. Guess not much of a warranty comes with new vessel.

Shipyard and manufacturer's warranties are generally one year, so Vista is well outside that.  As for the azipods, RCI has found that on the larger pods, like Oasis, that the 2.5 year window is about the time to change bearings, before they start to develop problems (that's why Oasis was in Grand Bahamas when the dock collapsed), I guess Carnival either didn't get the word, or decided to push the envelope.

[Micahs Grandad]

2 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Shipyard and manufacturer's warranties are generally one year, so Vista is well outside that.  As for the azipods, RCI has found that on the larger pods, like Oasis, that the 2.5 year window is about the time to change bearings, before they start to develop problems (that's why Oasis was in Grand Bahamas when the dock collapsed), I guess Carnival either didn't get the word, or decided to push the envelope.

I find it hard to believe the cruise lines do not share info on maintenance issues. Pushing the envelope sounds more likely and guess that will cost them quite a bit.

[jimbo5544]

4 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Okay, another method I hadn't thought of.  This ship used to be the Dockwise Vanguard, and was proposed to transport the Costa Concordia from Giglio island to the breaker's yard, but they decided on a different method.  Vista will fit between the wing walls of Boka Vanguard, and she has the ability to lift the weight of Vista, but she will still hang over, most likely the bow, so that there is a working platform under the azipods.  Should be interesting to see them maneuver this into Grand Bahamas.

Saw it earlier today, very interesting.....sure hope it works...

[jimbo5544]

4 hours ago, chengkp75 said:

Shipyard and manufacturer's warranties are generally one year, so Vista is well outside that.  As for the azipods, RCI has found that on the larger pods, like Oasis, that the 2.5 year window is about the time to change bearings, before they start to develop problems (that's why Oasis was in Grand Bahamas when the dock collapsed), I guess Carnival either didn't get the word, or decided to push the envelope.

Are the pods on Oasis the same size as Vista or larger?  I assume by your comment that the maintenance time factor varies with size of the Azipod