RCL Stock

[firefly333]

1 hour ago, Baron Barracuda said:

To me 2q is the put up or shut up quarter.  All ships back at sea sailing full.  Need to see them in the black and solidly cash flow positive.  Prior quarters positive cash flow was all due to higher customer deposits.  That won't continue.

I'd be happy with ... ok we can turn a profit in 3 qtrs, or set a date. .. I dont even think they can show a profit yet.

[taglovestocruise]

2 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Ccl posted a loss of 41 ce tsp, 44 cents a share were projected. So earnings were a beat. CNBC was on when they reported and they thought the earnings were just good, not hit it out of the ballpark gold as the recent run up would have indicated one of them said. The higher occupancy just now starting to add to the bottom line. .. I didnt think ccl report bad, ..but 41 cents a share still a big loss.

 

I could be wrong but my 6th cents says rcl feels like its trading toppy to me. Rcl report will be interesting. 

And CCL still up 8.8% today.  I put a trailing stop loss on RCL yesterday and just now put one on CCL. All these cruise line stocks are floating on air. A pin ***** is coming.  Keep in mind that pigs get slaughtered. 

[bruzin_for_a_cruizin]

57 minutes ago, taglovestocruise said:

And CCL still up 8.8% today.  I put a trailing stop loss on RCL yesterday and just now put one on CCL. All these cruise line stocks are floating on air. A pin ***** is coming.  Keep in mind that pigs get slaughtered. 

What's your target price? I always find it curious how stock information is often conflicting. Close today was $103.13, and yet:

 

So which is it? Buy more at $103, or is the target price $94? Because those two data points don't seem to jibe...

[ink76]

My guess what fueling this run in these cruise lines stock, word out they have record bookings what the old adage buy on the rumors sell on the news might be in play here but who know?

[steveru621]

$34/share I'm wanting to sell. Gonna be a long time to make up $7,000 OBC.

[firefly333]

5 minutes ago, ink76 said:

My guess what fueling this run in these cruise lines stock, word out they have record bookings what the old adage buy on the rumors sell on the news might be in play here but who know?

Carnival just had its earnings call yesterday morning. So we just heard theirs and was good but not good enough to push higher on earnings. 

[taglovestocruise]

21 minutes ago, bruzin_for_a_cruizin said:

What's your target price? I always find it curious how stock information is often conflicting. Close today was $103.13, and yet:

 

So which is it? Buy more at $103, or is the target price $94? Because those two data points don't seem to jibe...

I have been saying for a year that it will hit 100 and I will be out, bought it at $24 in 2020. It broke a hundred yesterday and I put a $2 trailing stop on it. Thought I would be stopped out this morning but things are still positive, after hours trading it is still ticking up. Did the same today on CCL, not sure yet what to do with NCL..

[ink76]

Cruise radio reported this morning CCL has a  record 7.2 billion dollars in customer deposits now make you wonder what RCL got I am sure it a big number also?

[firefly333]

22 hours ago, firefly333 said:

I'm out at 104.20. Its flying on air not profits. Delta  said profits up so all the cruise stocks followed.

 

We will see if I'm wrong. I plan on buying back shares lower. Traders gotta trade .. it's just a day traders trade. Moving higher now  .. 

 

104.41 . . 

Struggling still. So far my trading sense still says it hit resistance and cant move higher unless another fluke like delta airlines pushed travel higher yesterday. A gift. Traded too many years not to notice how toppy it was trading. Overbought here imo.

 

Stronger than ccl though. Rcl stock the clear winner of cruise stocks. Recovered the best. 

[mattg43]

I have 50 shares held more than a year.  50 bought July 27, 2022.  Up roughly 3k on the first set, and 3.5k on the second.

 

My sell trigger finger is itchy for the first 50.

Edited June 30, 2023 by mattg43

[firefly333]

Everyone piled back in. A analyst upgraded ccl and it's a travel weekend.

 

I sure hope earnings are hotter than hot. I cant see how this is worth over $100 a share. I'm expecting a small 5% sell off of the whole market this summer. Inflation isnt tamed. Powell says over and over rates higher for longer, but the market has FOMO. 

 

Earnings will be interesting after this huge run up. 

[nelblu]

14 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Everyone piled back in. A analyst upgraded ccl and it's a travel weekend.

 

I sure hope earnings are hotter than hot. I cant see how this is worth over $100 a share. I'm expecting a small 5% sell off of the whole market this summer. Inflation isnt tamed. Powell says over and over rates higher for longer, but the market has FOMO. 

 

Earnings will be interesting after this huge run up. 

Carnival was upgraded today and RCL is up $2.26 as of now.

[bruzin_for_a_cruizin]

38 minutes ago, mattg43 said:

I have 50 shares held more than a year.  50 bought July 27, 2022.  Up roughly 3k on the first set, and 3.5k on the second.

 

My sell trigger finger is itchy for the first 50.

You do know that the shareholder OBC bonus needs 100 shares, yes? 

Holding 50 shares won't get you anything. Either hold the whole tranche and collect the OBC, or sell the lot!

[mattg43]

25 minutes ago, bruzin_for_a_cruizin said:

You do know that the shareholder OBC bonus needs 100 shares, yes? 

Holding 50 shares won't get you anything. Either hold the whole tranche and collect the OBC, or sell the lot!

 

Yes I do.  I have 2 cruises booked currently.  One for Oct 23, one for Oct 24.  Oct23 OBC has been applied and spent.  I can use my last statement to request the credit for the Oct 24 cruise.

 

Holding the 50 shares 4 more weeks will save me from paying the higher tax rate.  At which time I'll make a decision on them.

[Baron Barracuda]

3 hours ago, firefly333 said:

Everyone piled back in. A analyst upgraded ccl and it's a travel weekend.

 

I sure hope earnings are hotter than hot. I cant see how this is worth over $100 a share. I'm expecting a small 5% sell off of the whole market this summer. Inflation isnt tamed. Powell says over and over rates higher for longer, but the market has FOMO. 

 

Earnings will be interesting after this huge run up. 

2q  ends today so trading all week has been impacted by window dressing.  Every fund wants to show they hold the big winners for the quarter.  

 

Cruise lines love to brag about record bookings many of which are booked with $25 deposits and later cancelled.  With all the new builds added recently it would be shocking if reservations weren't increasing.  ICON alone will add 5600 births (and $2B in additional debt).

[firefly333]

6 minutes ago, Baron Barracuda said:

2q  ends today so trading all week has been impacted by window dressing.  Every fund wants to show they hold the big winners for the quarter.  

 

Cruise lines love to brag about record bookings many of which are booked with $25 deposits and later cancelled.  With all the new builds added recently it would be shocking if reservations weren't increasing.  ICON alone will add 5600 births (and $2B in additional debt).

I'm a stock trader mostly. When I sold, it went up over 105 that push but not since. Weaker in spite of 2 pushes not related to rcl, delta and then ccl news. Today Lower high than what I sold into. All the signs its played out when even with a catalyst its failing to go higher. Traders trimmed tech positions. 

 

Next week will be interesting agree with you.  

[bruzin_for_a_cruizin]

Not much going on this week, with the Independence Day holiday. Still above $100 and seemingly holding there. It'd be nice to see another run up to $120 or so, but I think this may be where we sit for a while.

I spent about an hour reading the first couple dozen pages of this post, which started back at the end of February, 2020. It was interesting to see how the virus picked up steam and drove the stock wayyyy down! There were a few here who warned it could/might/will get ugly, and they proved to be correct!

[grandgeezer]

On 6/28/2023 at 10:25 AM, cruiseguy1016 said:

I bought 264 (I don't remember why I chose that number) shares when it was around $22/share. I've sold off enough to cover my initial investment and now I'm playing with "House Money". I just applied for the OBC for a cruise booked for next year. The OBC posted in 5 days.

264 shares? I started buying stocks in 1988 and you could only buy/sell in multiples of 100s. Anything different than that was called “odd lot” and there had to be a seller that had, in your case, 64 shares to sell. There was a premium for this and from what I read, it could take quite a while. Maybe things have changed. If so, I wouldn’t want to be the one who put 100 shares for sale and they only took 64 to sell to you.

[firefly333]

2 hours ago, bruzin_for_a_cruizin said:

Not much going on this week, with the Independence Day holiday. Still above $100 and seemingly holding there. It'd be nice to see another run up to $120 or so, but I think this may be where we sit for a while.

I spent about an hour reading the first couple dozen pages of this post, which started back at the end of February, 2020. It was interesting to see how the virus picked up steam and drove the stock wayyyy down! There were a few here who warned it could/might/will get ugly, and they proved to be correct!

My post where I called a sell a few days ago turned out so far to be the high, just over 105. Since my sell call lower highs. 

 

On the other hand ccl that sold off worse imo it's been going higher ever since since rcl stalled out. Rcl right now coukdnt go higher so will pull back until its strong enough but not now I agree with you. 

 

Used to be able to lay charts on top of each other. Rcl is a failed rally imo, more apt to sell off than go higher. Compare to ccl higher each day, though I think it will run into resistance at $20. I am betting I can buy lower. You hope it will hold. Who knows, I'm reading the charts.

 

Both of these are 5 day charts .. notice ccl is still chugging higher, rcl lower each day, which is a bad trend line. We can look back in 5 days and see which or if rcl held or went higher or sold off. 

 

[CTCruiser76]

Sold 25 shares today as well. 

[firefly333]

If I'd been extra smart I would have sold short. Not just sold my few shares. No way this stock was worth over $100 a share. Earnings will have to be blow out. 

 

I do think rcl is pushing the pricing button harder and harder. So earnings will be good but not good enough for the $100 valuation.

 

I hardly think to sell short even when it's obvious a stock is about to sell off.

[livingonthebeach]

Not saying this will continue but shares of Royal Caribbean have outperformed the industry in the past three months. There is solid pent-up demand. RCL expects adjusted EPS to be $4.40-$4.80, up from the prior stated $3-$3.60. Earnings estimates for 2023 have moved north in the past 30 days, in line with analysts’ optimism regarding the stock’s growth potential.

Over the past four weeks, shares have rallied 20.31%, and there have been 7 higher earnings estimate revisions in the past two months for fiscal 2023.

I will continue to be bullish on this stock and will hang on to my shares even if there is a slight dip. It's worth it if only for the OBC. JMTCW

[ink76]

12 minutes ago, livingonthebeach said:

Not saying this will continue but shares of Royal Caribbean have outperformed the industry in the past three months. There is solid pent-up demand. RCL expects adjusted EPS to be $4.40-$4.80, up from the prior stated $3-$3.60. Earnings estimates for 2023 have moved north in the past 30 days, in line with analysts’ optimism regarding the stock’s growth potential.

Over the past four weeks, shares have rallied 20.31%, and there have been 7 higher earnings estimate revisions in the past two months for fiscal 2023.

I will continue to be bullish on this stock and will hang on to my shares even if there is a slight dip. It's worth it if only for the OBC. JMTCW

The trend on RCL is up up if anybody that has cruise in the last 45 days can see that, don't watch the day to day moved on this stock stand back look at it. Earning come out later this month they should be good watch to see if insider are buyer that would be a good sign also.

[livingonthebeach]

32 minutes ago, ink76 said:

The trend on RCL is up up if anybody that has cruise in the last 45 days can see that, don't watch the day to day moved on this stock stand back look at it. Earning come out later this month they should be good watch to see if insider are buyer that would be a good sign also.

 

Agreed. The stock was trading at around $120 before Covid -- there's no reason why it can't go to that level or higher even with the debt repayments. People are willing to pay the higher prices to get back to cruising and that is helping the stock price. Travel stocks in general have gone up considerably in the past few months. 

[topnole]

1 hour ago, livingonthebeach said:

 

Agreed. The stock was trading at around $120 before Covid -- there's no reason why it can't go to that level or higher even with the debt repayments. People are willing to pay the higher prices to get back to cruising and that is helping the stock price. Travel stocks in general have gone up considerably in the past few months. 

There are many reasons it might not go higher.  The debt being a big one, but clearly many macro and company specific variables impact how the market prices a stock.  But if/when the economy slows and we go into the next recession, these high cruise prices will be minimized and their margins could tank (they can’t exactly lower their debt costs in an inflationary period as interest rates are going up). Then watch what happens to the stock price.  
 

Of course it could go higher too off and on. But the fundamentals don’t look great to me and ultimately the fundamentals will dictate the long run stock price.  I could easily see Royal trading at half its current value in the somewhat near term.  

Edited July 6, 2023 by topnole