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heidikay
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51 minutes ago, grandgeezer said:

Another $70+ on the share price, reinstate the $3.16 dividend and you’ll be back to where it was in January 2020.

For sure dont need that much. Sold, rebought. Not down that much and my oil stocks and even boring merck etc. Near all time highs for me. My baby RIG hit a yearly high, my trader. 

 

Just happy rcl coming back. Guess it's a reason to be happy about the high cruise prices. 

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The following oddity continues, extremely high daily short volume during a period of rising PPS.  This pretty much runs against the trends in prior months of intra-day short selling during declining PPS and covering for short-term day trader profits.

 

So, do they portend that . . . . 

 

image.jpeg.5a75c874277688554c7e3d671955b9a6.jpeg

 

image.jpeg.8c30c16894a52ba845964b22ffaad164.jpeg

 

 

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  • 4 weeks later...

"

Financial Highlights & Outlook
Fourth Quarter 2022:
Load Factors were in line with guidance at 95%, with Caribbean sailings reaching 100%, and holiday sailings close to 110%.
Total revenues per passenger cruise day were up 3.5% as-reported and 4.5% in Constant Currency, compared to the fourth quarter of 2019.
Total revenues were $2.6 billion, Net Loss was $(500.2) million or $(1.96) per share, Adjusted Net Loss was $(284.9) million or $(1.12) per share, and Adjusted EBITDA was $409.3 million.
 
Full Year 2022:
Load Factors were 85% overall, full fleet back in operation since June of 2022.
Total revenues were $8.8 billion, Net Loss was $(2.2) billion or $(8.45) per share, Adjusted Net Loss was $(1.9) billion or $(7.50) per share, and Adjusted EBITDA was $711.6 million.
 
Full Year 2023 Outlook:
The company is experiencing a record-breaking WAVE season, driven by strong demand. The seven biggest booking weeks in the company's history have occurred since the last earnings call in November 2022.
2023 cumulative booked position remains well within historical ranges for all quarters and at record rates. North America based itineraries are booked in line with 2019 for the full year, and ahead for the second quarter through the fourth quarter.
Net Yields are expected to increase 2.5% to 4.5% in both as-reported and in Constant Currency versus 2019. Net Yields are expected to ramp up as load factors reach historical levels by late spring.
The company continues to successfully manage costs in a complicated environment with Net Cruise Costs (NCC), excluding Fuel, per APCD expected to increase 4.5% to 5.5% as-reported and 4.75% to 5.75% in Constant Currency compared to 2019, a three-year old benchmark, and include approximately 210 basis points from lingering transitional costs (e.g. crew movement) and additional structural costs (e.g. full-year operations of Perfect Day at CocoCay and the new Galveston terminal).
The company expects to exceed prior record Adjusted EBITDA, achieved in 2019.
The company expects Adjusted Earnings per Share in the range of $3.00 to $3.60.
 
First Quarter 2023 Outlook:
Net Yields are expected to increase 0.5% to 1.5% as-reported and 1% to 2% in Constant Currency compared to 2019, with load factors reaching 100% and total revenues per passenger cruise day up in the mid-to-high single digit range in both as-reported and Constant Currency compared to 2019.
NCC, excluding Fuel, per APCD is expected to increase approximately 8.3% as-reported and approximately 8.5% in Constant Currency, compared to 2019, including 320 basis points of lagging transitional costs, additional structural costs, and timing of expenses.
Adjusted Loss per Share is expected to be in the range of $(0.65) – $(0.85)."
 
Edited by Biker19
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Well, they can (and have) added 'every cherry they could' to the press release laden with statistical slants.  Although IMO they are 'best positioned' of the big three publicly held cruise lines, it's not a good omen that the following still is 'in there' and such are problematic.

 

1.  "As of December 31, 2022, the Group’s customer deposit balance was at a record $4.2 billion."  They have $1.935 B of cash and cash equivalents (the purport anther approximate $1 B via undrawn revolving credit facility and $700 M 'commitment' for 364-day short term loan).  But they have already spent 55% of the customer deposits on all future cruise out into 2-years worth of years.  Some might say, well they always did.  However, not with (a) this new massive level of debt (b) the astronomical costs to operate and (2) below.

 

2.  Despite almost full occupancy of 95% of capacity for the quarter ended 12/31/2022, they still LOST $500 M.  🤨  They focus on 'operating income of $15 M for the quarter, but as for all business and individuals, you have to pay the interest on your debt and related expenses (another $515 M in costs).

 

Again, IMO RCL is in the best position.  This earnings press release should be a warning to the other public cruise lines that are not remotely in the same position.

 

If the increase occupancy to 100%, with an operating net income of $15 M on $2.604 B of operating cruise revenues, a 5% increase would result in $750,000 of additional operating net income.  An increase to 110% similarly would equate to $2.2 Million of such.

 

So, do we wonder why the 'cost cutting' comments of cruisers are so common?

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On 1/13/2023 at 2:13 AM, volk904 said:

I purchased 200 shares when it was at $33 mid summer. Wish I had purchased more.   

You did better than us.  We're grateful for all we got at $40....glad we didn't listen to the 'gloom-and-doom'.  Probably sell it this week, as the short-term objective was exceeded.  The OBC is no longer applied when upgrading a comped cruise (understand why, but sure enjoyed the perk when it was in play), so no reason for us to be shareholders any longer.

Edited by bucfan2
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Yes, operating at 95% capacity yet only achieving $15MM in operating earnings also caught my eye  (note they did reserve $130MM in q4 for Helms-Burton).   Record bookings not a surprise given increased  capacity from all the new ships they've been adding.  Also note the three new ships being added in '23 will increase debt $3.6B.  Additional new builds  scheduled for delivery '24 - '26 will increase debt even more.  During 2022 total debt increased from $19B to $21B while stockholders equity shrank from $5.1B to $2.9B.  At some point creditors will clamor for an equity raise.

 

Stock opened up $7 pulling CCL and NCLH higher as well.  Slipped during conference call, now only up $2

Edited by Baron Barracuda
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I am a shareholder and have a lot of faith in Royal Caribbean.  But I am concerned that that at 95% capacity, they still lost money.

 

My question:  Do they every break out the financials between Royal Caribbean and Celebrity?  I am under the impression that Celebrity is not doing as well as Royal Caribbean.  It seems like they they have more unsold cabins and they need to roll out bigger discounts.

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I'm not an educated investor or a serious one, you guys can talk circles around me and I'd only get dizzy.  However, I have a few dollars in Rustbucket Cruise Lines even though I won't cruise them.  My wife keeps up with their fares and says that they have really been increasing at an alarming rate.  So, even though I won't cruise on Rustbucket, I invite everyone to do so.  SHOW ME THE MONEY!

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7 hours ago, bucfan2 said:

You did better than us.  We're grateful for all we got at $40....glad we didn't listen to the 'gloom-and-doom'.  Probably sell it this week, as the short-term objective was exceeded.  The OBC is no longer applied when upgrading a comped cruise (understand why, but sure enjoyed the perk when it was in play), so no reason for us to be shareholders any longer.

Bought 200 at $21.  In a few months, I will have made more in OBC then the stock cost me.

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14 hours ago, marvelous35 said:

I am a shareholder and have a lot of faith in Royal Caribbean.  But I am concerned that that at 95% capacity, they still lost money.

 

My question:  Do they every break out the financials between Royal Caribbean and Celebrity?  I am under the impression that Celebrity is not doing as well as Royal Caribbean.  It seems like they they have more unsold cabins and they need to roll out bigger discounts.

Doeas this mean that 95% of the cabins are full?

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6 minutes ago, Bromma16872 said:

Doeas this mean that 95% of the cabins are full?

Not necessarily. The percentage has to do with the number of people aboard. For example, two cabins with double occupancy would be quivalent to one cabin with quadruple occupancy and an empty cabin as far as percentage is concerned. 

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2 minutes ago, Bromma16872 said:

Doeas this mean that 95% of the cabins are full?

No.

 

Capacity is measured at double occupancy.  2 guests in every cabin on board the ship regardless of how many can sleep in it.  They could have a lot of cabins sold where there are 4 in a room so then there would be a lot of empty double occupancy cabins.

 

For example Oasis is 5606 passengers at double occupancy on 2803 rooms with a maximum capacity of 6699 passengers.

 

95% would be she sailed with 5326 passengers out of a total capacity if completely full of 6699

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15 hours ago, marvelous35 said:

Do they every break out the financials between Royal Caribbean and Celebrity?

Not in their SEC filings and have not found them separate anywhere else either. The financials are for the entire RCG, which includes Silverseas and RCG stake in other lines like Tui.

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16 hours ago, marvelous35 said:

I am under the impression that Celebrity is not doing as well as Royal Caribbean.  It seems like they they have more unsold cabins and they need to roll out bigger discounts.

I agree with you 100%.  We were on the Summit in December and we sailed at 40%.

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10 hours ago, fredmdcruisers said:

My stock OBC never was responded to for 3 weeks on the Explorer. Maybe I didn't send it on time for week one but I would have thought weeks 2 and 3 would have been awarded.

Go to Customer Service and ask them to check.  It happened to me once and they contacted Miami and I got my OBC.

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From an SEC filing yesterday:

"On February 13, 2023, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd. (the “Company”) completed its previously announced private offering of $700.0 million aggregate principal amount of 7.250% Senior Notes due 2030 (the “Notes”). The Company received net proceeds from the offering of approximately $691.0 million (after deducting fees, commissions and expenses), which it intends to use to repay principal payments on debt maturing in 2023 and/or 2024."

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