Convince me.

[ORV]

1 minute ago, RJB said:

A test is just that.  We know who is sick and can very well count those people.  Can't very well hide them in the closet, can we?   Have a very good idea of the numbers.  

Are you kidding me? Ever hear of asymptomatic carriers? 

[Paulchili]

1 hour ago, ORV said:

Are you kidding me? Ever hear of asymptomatic carriers? 

In addition to those I have read a large number of people that had symptoms and went to the ER but did not fulfill all the requirements for testing (international travel, contact with known cases, etc, etc) and thus were refused testing. Most of them went home and eventually recovered but undoubtedly were positive. Only those that got worse and had to be admitted were tested. Also there was a large number of cases with symptoms that thought they just had a flu and got over it - they were not tested or counted either.

It is a FACT that less than 1% - yes, you read it correctly - less than 1% of the population of US have been tested.

Edited April 13, 2020 by Paulchili

[Paulchili]

1 hour ago, jonthomas said:

Yeah hard to let this go. 

 

You guys were supposed to convince me to cancel my new years cruise on the Riviera for Dec/Jan for 2020.

Well the price of it has come down, instead of cancelling I now have a new invoice for it. What a fool am I?

Time will tell whether you are a fool or a genius. Then again, you could be an "idiot savant" 😀 

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/idiot savant

Edited April 13, 2020 by Paulchili

[robbie21]

2 hours ago, TrulyBlonde said:

I found this graph today which really puts it into perspective based on population of countries. April 11, 2020

 

 

This chart is not correct.  Don't know the source but US death rate per million population is roughly 65 per million not 275 as shown on the chart.  Also, first US death was Feb 28 making 41 days since the first death.  Don't think the other numbers are correct either. google it yourself.

[ORV]

4 minutes ago, robbie21 said:

 

This chart is not correct.  Don't know the source but US death rate per million population is roughly 65 per million not 275 as shown on the chart.  Also, first US death was Feb 28 making 41 days since the first death.  Don't think the other numbers are correct either. google it yourself.

I think you're looking at the Belgium line. 

[robbie21]

check this source for accurate data https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus#covid-19-deaths-by-country

Its a bit complicated but accurate.

 

The source of the erroneous graph is some Scandinavian financial advisory company ???

[1985rz1]

19 minutes ago, robbie21 said:

 

This chart is not correct.  Don't know the source but US death rate per million population is roughly 65 per million not 275 as shown on the chart.  Also, first US death was Feb 28 making 41 days since the first death.  Don't think the other numbers are correct either. google it yourself.

The bottom curve (blue) is for the US, with the 65 per million.  The curve with 275 per million is for Belgium (black).  The colors look similar, so it's easy to confuse.

[robbie21]

Just now, 1985rz1 said:

The bottom curve (blue) is for the US, with the 65 per million.  The curve with 275 per million is for Belgium (black).  The colors look similar, so it's easy to confuse.

My bad.  That's exactly what I did and it is confusing.Usually (often) the chart legend is shown in the same order as the data lines so I assumed the top (black) line was for the USA.   I knew what I was interpreting from the chart (erroneously) was wrong hence the indignant correction.  My apologies to Truelyblond.

 

The data source I linked is really good if you are interested.

[TrulyBlonde]

2 hours ago, robbie21 said:

My bad.  That's exactly what I did and it is confusing.Usually (often) the chart legend is shown in the same order as the data lines so I assumed the top (black) line was for the USA.   I knew what I was interpreting from the chart (erroneously) was wrong hence the indignant correction.  My apologies to Truelyblond.

 

The data source I linked is really good if you are interested.

thank you for the apology. 

[clo]

2 hours ago, robbie21 said:

That's exactly what I did and it is confusing.Usually (often) the chart legend is shown in the same order as the data lines so I assumed the top (black) line was for the USA.I 

I couldn't figure it out...but I have old eyes.

[RetiredLifer]

I have found the following link to be very accurate:

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

 

It contains the same information (and more) that the The Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) at John Hopkins University site has but I find it easier to read.

[ano]

On 4/10/2020 at 8:49 AM, Paulchili said:

I would. If ships are cruising by then you could easily re-book this or another Carib cruise without any problem.

I doubt very much people will be rushing to cruise anytime really soon.

Get your cash back now before they'll offer FCC only.

 

 

+1

[Redtravel]

On 4/10/2020 at 1:07 PM, Flatbush Flyer said:

FWIW, I'm on the side of "carry on" with the original plan. We have a 30 day Athens to Dubai cruise coming up in November that we fully intend to take unless it is cancelled by Oceania (in which case, we will receive, at least,  a 100% refund (as expected by the Oceania T&Cs and due to the US FMC financial reserve requirements imposed on cruise lines operating in the U.S.). Of course, we also plan to use two recently provided  time-limited Future Cruise Credits (associated with recent modified/cancelled Asia region cruises) to pay the bulk of our final payment, which is due in June. So, the risk is somewhat manageable in a worst case scenario (and, in all honesty, is a major reason why we'll take that risk).

 

Further, I believe that, if any NCLH line survives, it will be Oceania due to its manageable size, established passenger base and the relatively excellent management of what has always been FDR's "baby."

 

Also affecting our consideration is our recent experience on Nautica during February where, as we crossed the Indian Ocean with unending reminders about personal hygiene and the exceptional shipboard sanitation, we actually felt far safer than we did transiting four airports on the way home.

 

And then there's a reality check:

 

 While preserving human life is clearly more important than financial well-being, the two are inexorably connected for all the obvious reasons.

 

That said, I expect that "back to work" allowances (world-wide) for all sorts of industries will soften by Autumn of this year - despite the challenges that will be presented to Social Distancing which, until there's a Covid-19 vaccine, is the best preventative measure (along with exceptional hygiene).

 

With the understanding that I am a generally a non-politically influenced person, I cannot dismiss the economic concerns that come with "lock-downs." Let's face it, there will need to be a better balance of health & welfare in Health & Welfare if Americans are to regain control of our lives..

Why would Oceania survive over other cruise lines?  They don’t have anything more than other lines. I can see NCL keeping the big ships that make them more money. While not as expensive as a Oceania or Regent, the economy of scale makes more sense on the big ships. 

[KS&JW]

1 hour ago, Redtravel said:

Why would Oceania survive over other cruise lines?  They don’t have anything more than other lines. I can see NCL keeping the big ships that make them more money. While not as expensive as a Oceania or Regent, the economy of scale makes more sense on the big ships. 

 

I can easily see a scenario where countries don't want big ships docking and limit the size of ships.  I can also see where they don't want ANY ships, for logical or non-logical reasons,  and limit tourists to those that fly in for the near future.  

[pinotlover]

Domestic travel isn’t an overwhelming issue. I could easily see Oceania being forced by the airlines of going “ cruise only”, 90 days prior to cruise on international cruises.

 

Once things get back up, those group/ bulk discounted air rates will become gold. People waiting until the last moment, for the lowest price, may face an airline squeeze.

Edited April 19, 2020 by pinotlover

[Redtravel]

Trying to guess what will happen to cruising?  Big ships, small ships, etc.  not speculating. Just hope that businesses survive.  There are bound to be casualties, both human and economic. Sadly, many people will not travel like they did before the pandemic. Some may not travel anywhere. For now we are at home for the duration. Looks like it will be quite some time before the stay at home order and curfews are lifted.  

[Flatbush Flyer]

3 hours ago, Redtravel said:

Why would Oceania survive over other cruise lines?  They don’t have anything more than other lines. I can see NCL keeping the big ships that make them more money. While not as expensive as a Oceania or Regent, the economy of scale makes more sense on the big ships. 

Sorry but, if you can't fill a 4,000 passenger ship consistently (particularly on their often 5-10 day cruises), you can throw "economy of scale" out the window.

 

It will be far easier for ANY premium/luxury line to fill their smaller ships (e.g., Oceania's Rs at <700 passengers and Os at <1200 passengers) than for a mass market line to fill its multi-thousand passsenger ships. Remember too that many of these lines have very loyal (and financially secure) followers who favor their long itinerary cruises (e.g., 3-4+ weeks). 

 

Likewise, it is probable that many folks who choose discount lines because that's what they can afford may also find themselves even more financially challenged due to Covid-19 job losses. 

 

Ergo, in this probable "new normal," supply/demand will easily outweigh "economy of scale" as a determinant of future viability. 

 

 

[pinotlover]

Flatbush;

 

Many believe the elderly will be the last to return to the market place. One economist writer said “ outside of the care industry, those companies concentrated with retired clientele will be the last to recover, if they recover, from the pandemic “. 
 

Oceania can’t wait 12-15 months for reluctant seniors to return to cruising.

[Flatbush Flyer]

7 minutes ago, pinotlover said:

Flatbush;

 

Many believe the elderly will be the last to return to the market place. One economist writer said “ outside of the care industry, those companies concentrated with retired clientele will be the last to recover, if they recover, from the pandemic “. 
 

Oceania can’t wait 12-15 months for reluctant seniors to return to cruising.

Though I shudder to think of myself as "elderly," I'm in that group who always smiles when they (re)hear the story of "the old bull and the young bull."

Sad that we will miss our ATW segments next month, we are hoping for enough good Covid-19 news that we'll be able to do our 30 day Athens-Dubai cruise this November. 

Today, my leanings are to keep the cruise booked and leave our UA tix intact. Final pay is due in June. So, we'll make the pros/cons list then. One of our 25% FCCs (from the modified Nautica cruise this past February) has a 12/31/20 sailing deadline. And we've got another 25% one with a later deadline in 2021 (or 22?). I'll probably apply both to the November cruise to keep our final payment low (expecting I'll get the FCCs and cash back if O cancels.

So, the big question will be: If O goes in November, will we? Today, I say yes. But, it's not June yet.

FWIW, I'm betting there's a lot of similar feelings among O's geezer regulars.

[pinotlover]

We have a November, Istanbul to Dubai cruise booked that we are waiting until the last minute to decide.

[drkitkat123]

I can 100% guarantee you there will be no non-essential overseas travel this year from any country

[Paulchili]

2 hours ago, drkitkat123 said:

I can 100% guarantee you there will be no non-essential overseas travel this year from any country

Strong words. What are you willing to put up to back up you guarantee? 😀

[clo]

6 hours ago, KS&JW said:

limit tourists to those that fly in for the near future.  

Or drive or take the train or whatever.

[clo]

1 hour ago, Paulchili said:

Strong words. What are you willing to put up to back up you guarantee? 😀

I wouldn't be surprised if that turns out to be true but I would also like to know the basis for that.

[Flatbush Flyer]

1 hour ago, Paulchili said:

Strong words. What are you willing to put up to back up you guarantee? 😀

Spoiler alert for our bet proposer: there are ten intercontinental flights leaving from SFO tomorrow.