Are vaccines the light at the end of the tunnel?

[Ken the cruiser]

Getting back on track, AstraZeneca just released an updated phase 3 trial data report correcting the earlier version released a few days ago.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/covid-vaccine-astrazeneca-issues-updated-phase-3-trial-data.html?__source=newsletter|breakingnews

[markeb]

18 minutes ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Getting back on track, AstraZeneca just released an updated phase 3 trial data report correcting the earlier version released a few days ago.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/covid-vaccine-astrazeneca-issues-updated-phase-3-trial-data.html?__source=newsletter|breakingnews

Other than it shouldn’t have happened, that’s a pretty insignificant difference. Thankfully!

[nocl]

35 minutes ago, markeb said:

Other than it shouldn’t have happened, that’s a pretty insignificant difference. Thankfully!

3% lower compared to their original number.  Now we wait and see if the FDA comes up with the same number.

[Charles4515]

5 hours ago, nocl said:

Of course the Cruise lines do not mention that the only cruises that they normally do from the US between June and September are to Alaska.  Which could not happen this year.  there are very few cruises in the Caribbean in the summer (for most lines none due to the temperature, Caribbean off season).   It is only when the ships come off the Alaska routes and the ships return from Europe in September and October that the Caribbean, Mexico and New England cruises take place.

 

The the real impact for this summer is Alaska and Europe for which the issue is not CDC (especially Europe).

There are normally cruises to Bermuda between June and September out of Boston, NY/NJ and Baltimore. 

[jagoffee]

5 hours ago, nocl said:

Hopefully so, unfortunately it seems that many people are trying to extend the pandemic as long as possible, not unlike what happened in 1918 when people got tired of the restrictions, thought the outbreak was over, only to get hit by two more waves.

I doubt that the US was administering the equivalent of 2.5 million doses of a vaccine during that time.  
 

[4774Papa]

2 hours ago, jagoffee said:

I doubt that the US was administering the equivalent of 2.5 million doses of a vaccine during that time.  
 

The excellent vaccination rate in some countries is the light at the end of the tunnel.  Still, we have a ways to go before that happens, However, with vaccinations running from 2.5 to 3 million a day, the USA will have 60% of the population vaccinated by Summer.  

 

Unfortunately, those of us that had planned trips to Europe in the Fall are likely to be disappointed due to the EU falling down on vaccinations.   Looking at going to Israel, the country with the best record on vaccinations.

[TeeRick]

13 hours ago, D C said:

I can't find any source that actually quotes whatever the CDC did say. 

Here is a source article.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/cruise-and-ferry/cdc-denies-cruise-sectors-request-to-lift-us-sailing-restrictions-by-july/2-1-986849

[TeeRick]

11 hours ago, markeb said:

Glenmorangie La Quinta Rosa 14. No popcorn yet tonight...

Mark- Keep in mind that March 27th is officially International Whiskey Day.  I plan to celebrate with selections of the appropriate beverage.  OK now back to vaccines and cruising...

[D C]

2 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Here is a source article.

https://www.tradewindsnews.com/cruise-and-ferry/cdc-denies-cruise-sectors-request-to-lift-us-sailing-restrictions-by-july/2-1-986849

Thanks Rick.

 

 

If this is all the CDC said, it reinforces my opinion of their incompetence, particularly when it comes to being an agency for which public communication is as essential as any other work that they might be doing behind closed doors, in labs, or wherever.

"Returning to passenger cruising is a phased approach to mitigate the risk of spreading Covid-19. Details for the next phase of the CSO are currently under interagency review,"

[D C]

4 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

Mark- Keep in mind that March 27th is officially International Whiskey Day.  I plan to celebrate with selections of the appropriate beverage.  OK now back to vaccines and cruising...

 

So domestic whisky is right out?

[TeeRick]

10 hours ago, Ken the cruiser said:

Getting back on track, AstraZeneca just released an updated phase 3 trial data report correcting the earlier version released a few days ago.

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/24/covid-vaccine-astrazeneca-issues-updated-phase-3-trial-data.html?__source=newsletter|breakingnews

This shows that the Effectiveness of the AZ/Oxford vaccine (just as we are seeing in the UK) is the same as the other vaccines in the key metrics of hospitalizations and deaths.  A difference of a few % in the clinical trial efficacy in what they reported and now this slight revision in reality makes no difference in the Effectiveness of this vaccine.  But the public relations and the confidence of the public is affected.  A blunder but with very little reason for it to have happened.  The FDA Advisory Committee and the FDA will be the final say on an EUA so why would AZ release early results and then need to revise?  This one will be studied in MBA programs in business schools for years!

[TeeRick]

5 minutes ago, D C said:

Thanks Rick.

 

 

If this is all the CDC said, it reinforces my opinion of their incompetence, particularly when it comes to being an agency for which public communication is as essential as any other work that they might be doing behind closed doors, in labs, or wherever.

"Returning to passenger cruising is a phased approach to mitigate the risk of spreading Covid-19. Details for the next phase of the CSO are currently under interagency review,"

As your highlighted quote reveals, the CSO situation is currently under review internally and with other agencies (probably at least HHS).  They all have a new director and staff.  And a new White House to deal with too.  So saying -for now- that Nov 1 is still the date is the safe thing to do.  It might get revised to an earlier date.  The CDC cannot afford to be out of step and make decisions that would further erode public confidence.  I am just providing some insight.  I very much think that they need to be communicating more right now to us about cruising and travel.  We are all anxious since vaccines are rapidly changing the picture in the US and UK.

[TeeRick]

12 minutes ago, D C said:

 

So domestic whisky is right out?

Well there is World Whisky Day (in May) and National Bourbon Day (in June) coming up too.

[D C]

12 hours ago, Charles4515 said:

 

They are not incompetent you just don't agree with them. 

Expanding on my response above, their role as a public agency requires them to take a visible and timely role in communications.  Throughout the past year, they have been 2 steps behind in their recommendations.  They have continually flip-flopped on everything from masks, to who should be tested and when, how the virus spreads, etc...   Their most recent guidance that vaccinated people can socialize was Captain Obvious fodder and even that was a day late and a dollar short.   

 

When it comes to the few areas where they have direct control they've fallen short as well.  Masks required on commercial vessels in US waters.  Should that not be updated for vaccinated crew?  Should that not have considerations for the number of people on a vessel and whether or not the people are inside or on deck?   Half a dozen people wearing masks on a sightseeing pontoon boat makes the CDC rules look a bit misguided.  

 

Maybe I simply hold them to a higher standard than others do. 

Edited March 25, 2021 by D C

[TeeRick]

I know this is a vaccine thread but we cannot lose sight of the good work going on with antiviral drugs too.  If we had a SARS-CoV-2 specific oral antiviral drug in addition to effective vaccines, our cruising problems would be solved.  Antiviral drugs would contribute to the vaccine light at the end of the tunnel.  I will highlight one here that just entered the clinic.  It is a viral protease inhibitor.  This class of drug has been effective with other tough viruses like HIV-1 and HepC.   

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/23/covid-pfizer-begins-early-stage-clinical-trial-testing-oral-antiviral-drug.html

Edited March 25, 2021 by TeeRick

[D C]

8 minutes ago, TeeRick said:

I know this is a vaccine thread but we cannot lose sight of the good work going on with antiviral drugs too.  If we had a SARS-CoV-2 specific oral antiviral drug in addition to effective vaccines, our cruising problems would be solved.  Antiviral drugs would contribute to the vaccine light at the end of the tunnel.  I will highlight one here that just entered the clinic.  It is a viral protease inhibitor.  This class of drug has been effective with other tough viruses like HIV-1 and HepC.   

 

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/23/covid-pfizer-begins-early-stage-clinical-trial-testing-oral-antiviral-drug.html

I read an article recently about another anti-viral treatment that looked promising.  In Israel maybe?

 

The concept of early non-hospital treatment is great, but... will people in the anti-vaccine group willingly take a 'rushed' anti-viral?  

[TeeRick]

I found this also very interesting and perhaps highly relevant to cruising?  A simple armband test (3-5 min results) that can determine Covid both symptomatic AND asymptomatic infections with very high accuracy.   It just got an EUA approved from the FDA.  I have no idea the cost and availability but if they were practical for ships this would be a great step forward.

 

https://www.medscape.com/viewarticle/947894?src=wnl_edit_tpal&uac=370300SV&impID=3267113&faf=1

[TeeRick]

12 minutes ago, D C said:

I read an article recently about another anti-viral treatment that looked promising.  In Israel maybe?

 

The concept of early non-hospital treatment is great, but... will people in the anti-vaccine group willingly take a 'rushed' anti-viral?  

There are a number of COVID antiviral drugs in development and some are oral too.  The early work was on existing antivirals that were not SARS specific or oral ( like Remdesivir).  But the real win would be a specific oral antiviral drug against this virus. 

 

Who cares about what anti-vaxxers or anti-Med (?) people think?  Drugs for unmet medical need or orphan drugs have been accelerated by the FDA for many years and many diseases.  So not an unusual situation at all.

Edited March 25, 2021 by TeeRick

[mimbecky]

3 hours ago, 4774Papa said:

Looking at going to Israel, the country with the best record on vaccinations.

Just received an email from Celebrity that they are sailing Israel/Greece this summer!

[nocl]

7 hours ago, jagoffee said:

I doubt that the US was administering the equivalent of 2.5 million doses of a vaccine during that time.  
 

No, but it does show that things can go south if a call to the end of an epidemic occurs too soon.  As well as when epidemic fatigue sets in and people drop protective measures too soon.

Edited March 25, 2021 by nocl

[nocl]

2 hours ago, TeeRick said:

This shows that the Effectiveness of the AZ/Oxford vaccine (just as we are seeing in the UK) is the same as the other vaccines in the key metrics of hospitalizations and deaths.  A difference of a few % in the clinical trial efficacy in what they reported and now this slight revision in reality makes no difference in the Effectiveness of this vaccine.  But the public relations and the confidence of the public is affected.  A blunder but with very little reason for it to have happened.  The FDA Advisory Committee and the FDA will be the final say on an EUA so why would AZ release early results and then need to revise?  This one will be studied in MBA programs in business schools for years!

You might expect a small biotech, that has never taken a product to market before to mess up like this once, but not a company the size of AZ.  Especially since it is not the only mistake they have made.

 

The reason why I have commented about their first data used in Europe was a meta-analysis of different protocols and why the FDA frowns upon them is because they are subject to manipulation (cherry picking) of data depending upon how they are constructed.  Not saying that they did, only that it is a weakness of meta-analysis.

[nocl]

1 hour ago, mimbecky said:

Just received an email from Celebrity that they are sailing Israel/Greece this summer!

So Israel has changed the requirement for only vaccinated Israeli residents on board.

When does that requirement go away and it opens up for non-residents?

[nocl]

I was hoping that the vaccines might have a positive impact on the long haulers.  Unfortunately while it does seem to help some it is only a minority with one study reporting helping in about 35% of cases of long haulers, the rest report either no change or worsening of symptoms.

[K.T.B.]

I got my first dose of Pfizer today!  About 90 minutes ago actually.  I'm halfway ready to cruise!

[mimbecky]

On 3/24/2021 at 6:09 AM, TeeRick said:

May or later: California, Nebraska, Kansas, Hawaii, New Hampshire, Delaware

Good news: California just announced opening to over 50 on April 1st and to everyone over 16 on April 16th

Bad news: there are no basically appointments to be had of late.

Hope this means they think we are going to start getting a lot more soon!!