Data on outbreaks

[pbenjamin]

We are considering cancelling our trip on the Escape leaving 1/22.  As most people here know, the CDC reported 5013 new COVID-19 cases on cruise ships during the period Dec 15-29, a huge increase over the 162 cases during the previous period.  What I don't know is the breakdown by cruise line or ship of those cases.  I know about CDC's color coding but everything is yellow so that isn't much help.  I'd like to think that NCL's safety protocols, which are more stringent than some of the other lines, have caused NCL's share of the 5013 proportionately lower that some of the others.  If that were true it would be useful in determining whether or not to cancel.  Is there a breakdown of those numbers somewhere?

[bortman23]

We're sailing on the Encore on 1/23, I'd be interested in that data as well. I don't think we'll cancel unless we need/forced to. NCL does SEEM to be doing better than Carnival and Royal Caribbean though?  

[luckyinpa]

im a numbers guy so i'm curious what everyones threshold for decision making is..1 case.10..100? and rationale for each.

[davencl]

4 minutes ago, luckyinpa said:

im a numbers guy so i'm curious what everyones threshold for decision making is..1 case.10..100? and rationale for each.

I'm a numbers guy too but can't find any info on the 5013 number on CDC's website.  Yes it's reported all over as a "statement from the CDC" but nothing I can find on their website.  Would be good to know the original source of this "data".

[ChiefMateJRK]

It's a meaningless number.  If there are 2500 cases per week, and 100 cruises per week, that's "only" 25 cases per cruise.  Only 50 cruises per week?  Than 50 cases per cruise.  If the cases are all this wimpy Omicron, than 50 people out of several thousand get a sniffle, full cash refund and have to sit in a cabin and look out a window, or sit on the balcony, and watch the ocean.  What we haven't really received a definitive answer on is if they can order drinks from their "jail."

[Russiamomm]

I’d like to see the details too.  I suspect most are crew members simply for the fact that they are tested at least weekly, symptomatic or not.  I’d like to see the numbers for symptomatic positives and the severity of the symptoms.

[danny6514]

I would imagine the number to be much higher than that...my partner and I just got off the Bliss on December 26 and both tested positive two days later back at home. Cases like these likely won't be tallied by the CDC.

[TNcruising02]

6 minutes ago, danny6514 said:

I would imagine the number to be much higher than that...my partner and I just got off the Bliss on December 26 and both tested positive two days later back at home. Cases like these likely won't be tallied by the CDC.

The new variant may have a short incubation period, so if you had an airline flight home or even took a long road trip and stopped at hotels and restaurants, you could have been infected on your way home.

[danny6514]

Just now, TNcruising02 said:

The new variant may have a short incubation period, so if you had an airline flight home or even took a long road trip and stopped at hotels and restaurants, you could have been infected on your way home.

 

Our symptoms started on the last sea day, so it must have been either the cruise or one of the ports.

[TNcruising02]

Just now, danny6514 said:

 

Our symptoms started on the last sea day, so it must have been either the cruise or one of the ports.

Then you definitely were not infected on your way home.  Probably happened a few days before your symptoms started.  Since your partner had the same experience, it sounds like both of you got infected at the same time.

[GoldenGirl327]

I’m also curious about the ratio, as others have posted. 5000 tested positive but out of how many total? Data can be skewed to any way you want it to look. 5000 positive out of 6000 total cruisers is a lot. But 5000 out of 100,000 is a horse of a different color. 

[Karaboudjan]

I don't believe that data is available to the general public.  This subject has been discussed on CC since the restart and if anyone had found something I'm sure it would have been mentioned, and I'm sure the media would have latched onto it also.

 

You can come up with an estimate of the number of tests based on the number of crew, who are all getting tested at least weekly.  I don't believe that ships are testing a lot of passengers in general.

 

 

[Back to school]

1 hour ago, danny6514 said:

Our symptoms started on the last sea day, so it must have been either the cruise or one of the ports.

And back traveling flight?

[TNcruising02]

14 minutes ago, Back to school said:

And back traveling flight?

Which is actually why I wish people had to take a covid test before getting on a plane.  The airport and flying is the biggest concern I have when traveling.   Anyone can go to the airport, sit for hours and then board a plane while sick.

[Lou33]

On the Royal Caribbean board, they're talking about what may be a major outbreak on Harmony of the Seas, with hundreds of passengers and hundreds of crew.  

 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2821642-i-tested-positive/page/2/#comment-62384147

 

[TNcruising02]

57 minutes ago, Lou33 said:

On the Royal Caribbean board, they're talking about what may be a major outbreak on Harmony of the Seas, with hundreds of passengers and hundreds of crew.  

 

https://boards.cruisecritic.com/topic/2821642-i-tested-positive/page/2/#comment-62384147

 

That's not good.  I wonder how many total passengers/crew are sailing on that ship right now.  It is possible if the outbreak is high that the ship will be docked for cleaning before it can go out again.  This new variant is so contagious.  I know several people who have covid right now.  Some got it a few months ago and then the remaining family members seem to be getting it now.

January will probably be a bad covid month for the spread.  I am glad Norwegian tests everyone right before boarding.  That really should be done on every cruise ship.  It also might be a good idea for the ships to severely limit capacity for January sailings.

Edited January 2, 2022 by TNcruising02

[dobiemom]

John Heald, Carnivals Brand Ambassador posted:

So the media reported that there were  5000 cases over 2 weeks across the cruise industry. What they ummmm forgot to say was that this includes 1500 guests and that the rest were crew members. With over 90 ships operating that’s an average of 8 guests per cruise or about 0.2%. (12/31/21)

 

I found the CLIA Statement in Response to CDC Level 4 Warning Against Cruise Travel (30 December 2021)

 

What especially interested me was:

 

• The cruise industry is the only industry in the U.S. travel and tourism sector that is requiring both vaccinations and testing for crew and guests.

• Vaccination rates onboard a cruise ship are upwards of 95 percent—significantly higher than the overall U.S. population which is hovering at 62 percent. 

 

I plan on cruising Jan 16 unless NCL cancels the cruise. 

[Lou33]

Where we live there is a 90% vaccination rate, and people have always worn masks, but our case rates are 20 times higher than two weeks ago.   I hope that I"m wrong, but I think Omicron will be too much for the cruise industry to handle right now.  I think we will see a pause in one or two weeks.  

[Brandy14]

I wish they would start reporting on vaccinated with a booster. Everyone I know that has Covid right now has not had their booster. I, along with a couple of other friends, have had our boosters, been exposed to someone and not gotten it while those without a booster did get it. I think the booster is playing a big part but no one seems to report on it. 
For what it’s worth I’m on the Escape right now (since the 23rd) and would definitely I do it again. I feel like it’s just like anywhere else….if you take precautions it’s fine. We wear our masks and don’t cram into elevators with a lot of people and if someone is not wearing a mask we wait for the next one. We have avoided the pool though, and I know some people might not want to do that, but it was too many unmasked people too close together for us. We have a balcony so have enjoyed it instead. 

[pe4all]

We are all vaccinated and boostered.  DH started having cold symptoms 2 weeks ago, and tested positive for covid.  Very mild symptoms.  The rest of the family has since tested negative a few times.  Covid infection is hit and miss.  I know many people who had all their shots and now have omicron.  And since it is very hard to even get tested - facilities closing down to protect their staff, running out of tests- we really don't even know the true numbers.  They were worried about 5,000 cases on cruise ships in 2 weeks - we had over 85,000 positive cases in one day (12/31).  

[ElizaSTN]

1 hour ago, pe4all said:

We are all vaccinated and boostered.  DH started having cold symptoms 2 weeks ago, and tested positive for covid.  Very mild symptoms.  The rest of the family has since tested negative a few times.  Covid infection is hit and miss.  I know many people who had all their shots and now have omicron.  And since it is very hard to even get tested - facilities closing down to protect their staff, running out of tests- we really don't even know the true numbers.  They were worried about 5,000 cases on cruise ships in 2 weeks - we had over 85,000 positive cases in one day (12/31).  

And I think those numbers are barely scratching the surface.  DH and I tested positive with an at-home test yesterday.  We’re isolating of course but unless something very drastically changes, we won’t seek care.  Therefore our test isn’t counted.  So the #’s we’re seeing are low.  This thing has gone nuclear (in terms of contagion) and the only way out is through. 

[Brandy14]

2 hours ago, ontheweb said:

Not everyone who has had a booster has escaped Covid.

 

My brother in law 6 days after his booster ended up in the ICU. And another few days later needed to be intubated. Now, fortunately, he is off intubation and seems to be on his way back. The doctors have called it a miracle they usually do not see, and they credit his full vaccinations including the booster shot for his recovery. I do not know if it was omicron or delta.

Definitely wasn’t saying it’s not possible but it does help. I’m sorry that happened to your BIL and glad he’s ok but just like the original vaccines it does take time to take full effect. I would like to see the stats of fully boosted people (2 weeks after the booster is still what they think) getting Covid. 

[japit]

Heard about outbreaks on all ships.  Right now I heard 1  RC and 1 Carnival have large outbreaks.  I am wondering if the fact that they allow unvaccinated children is making matters worse

[phillygwm]

14 hours ago, danny6514 said:

I would imagine the number to be much higher than that...my partner and I just got off the Bliss on December 26 and both tested positive two days later back at home. Cases like these likely won't be tallied by the CDC.

I was on the Bliss 12/12-19.  A few people on my roll call tested positive when they returned home.  Importantly, I don't think anyone had much in terms of symptoms, they tested because they just got off a cruise ship.  Sort of like the old adage "If a tree falls in the woods...."

 

Obviously, if there's a mandatory testing/quarantine requirement, as there might be for people traveling back to other countries, that might be a reason to reconsider cruising. 

 

Personally, I probably wouldn't fly to a port today because I wouldn't want to quarantine in a strange city if I tested positive.  But if I were leaving from a drivable port, my only concern would be cruise quality: will ports be cancelled?  Shows/restaurants closed, etc.  

[billslowsky]

3 hours ago, Honolulu Blue said:

 

Thanks for sharing this.  Mr. Heald's reveal was a little more telling than it appears on the surface.  Most of you can head for the exits now, but I'll dig through the numbers:

 

• The 0.2% assumes 4000 passengers per cruise.  Mardi Gras might be running that, and the big RCCL ships might be getting there now, but the vast majority of cruise ships aren't sailing with anywhere near 4000 passengers.  I think a better estimate would be 1500 per, which makes the positive percentage of passengers about 0.5%.  That's actually not TOO terrible, but remember they're not testing all passengers routinely.
• 5000 cases - 1500 passenger cases = 3500 crew cases.  I'll be conservative and estimate 1000 crew per ship.  That means the percentage of crew that's testing positive is around 4%.  That's more worrisome than the passenger number, IMHO.
• Both those percentages are likely to move up in the next two weeks unless there's a solution that I'm struggling to find

He's not accounting for people who test positive immediately after cruising.  Not in his interest.