P&O update and the future as seen by Paul Ludlow

[Megabear2]

Very interesting article in Travel Weekly with Paul Ludlow speaking at their Future of Travel Conference last week.   Standout points were high capacity exceeding their target and the strength of ex Southampton sailings compared to the fly cruises.

 

The ominous rumblings for future cruise prices however, aren't so good : "But we are not immune to cost pressures in our business – we will have to push ticket prices significantly up but even with that, we will do well.”

 

With the new launch only a couple of weeks away, how do you feel about ticket prices rising significantly and how do you think they will impact your decision to book?  Do you think Paul Ludlow is right to be so confident that P&O will carry on doing as well he says?  This presentation was of course made before the financial statement from the Government with all the turmoil that has followed and presumably some things like pound to dollar exchange rates may now be ringing some alarm bells.

 

https://travelweekly.co.uk/news/cruise/southampton-a-massive-advantage-for-po-cruises-amid-disruption

 

 

 

 

[wowzz]

1 minute ago, Megabear2 said:

With the new launch only a couple of weeks away, how do you feel about ticket prices rising significantly and how do you think they will impact your decision to book? 

My own view is that as P&O seem to be quite prepared to undercut their launch prices in order to stimulate sales, and that additionally their mass market demographic are going to face unbelievable mortgage cost increases,  there is no reason to book early, unless you require a specific cabin.

Everyone of us is going to face increased costs over the next twelve months - those with mortgages that are not fixed,  will be in dire straits. Disposable income will become non-existent.

So, I'm going to sit on my hands for the next six months before committing to anything. It will be a buyer's market out there. 

[Host Sharon]

I am certainly not going to pay top dollar until they resolve staffing issues and bring back pre-Covid levels of service. They will also have to have some intersting itineraries for me to book early.

[emam]

After reading the link, if you scroll down there's a couple of reports on RC and Saga.

 

I have just received and email saying they are putting our gas/electric up by £45 a month. Last increase was just short of £100 pm. I doubt many people will be rushing to book a cruise.

[zap99]

21 minutes ago, wowzz said:

My own view is that as P&O seem to be quite prepared to undercut their launch prices in order to stimulate sales, and that additionally their mass market demographic are going to face unbelievable mortgage cost increases,  there is no reason to book early, unless you require a specific cabin.

Everyone of us is going to face increased costs over the next twelve months - those with mortgages that are not fixed,  will be in dire straits. Disposable income will become non-existent.

So, I'm going to sit on my hands for the next six months before committing to anything. It will be a buyer's market out there. 

We won't be booking any cruises until well into the new year. Their price ambition is different to ours

 

[wowzz]

2 minutes ago, Host Sharon said:

They will also have to have some intersting itineraries for me to book early.

Realistically Sharon, how likely is that ? The itineraries are pretty much written in stone.

 

[Host Sharon]

Just now, wowzz said:

Realistically Sharon, how likely is that ? The itineraries are pretty much written in stone.

 

I live in hope. I would be happy if they repeated some older itineraries like an intensive Adriatic cruise.

[wowzz]

3 minutes ago, zap99 said:

We won't be booking any cruises until well into the new year. Their price ambition is different to ours

 

Totally agree. My final salary pension is limited to a maximum increase of 5% pa. My government pension may increase by 10%, but the actual cash increase is relatively small. My share portfolio is creaking after the latest government "brainwave". 

So, allocating funds to holidays of any type in 2024 seems unwise. 

But, perhaps, a £10 deposit might just tempt me,  although I imagine P&O accountants might not be happy.

[wowzz]

6 minutes ago, Host Sharon said:

I live in hope. I would be happy if they repeated some older itineraries like an intensive Adriatic cruise.

That I would like,  but only as a fly/cruise option.

[zap99]

1 minute ago, wowzz said:

Totally agree. My final salary pension is limited to a maximum increase of 5% pa. My government pension may increase by 10%, but the actual cash increase is relatively small. My share portfolio is creaking after the latest government "brainwave". 

So, allocating funds to holidays of any type in 2024 seems unwise. 

But, perhaps, a £10 deposit might just tempt me,  although I imagine P&O accountants might not be happy.

We have a 7 night Azura fly cruise in mind,  but £3,000 for a standard balcony

..no thanks

 We will see if there are any offers on Britannia next week.  If not, no rush.

 

[wowzz]

1 minute ago, zap99 said:

We have a 7 night Azura fly cruise in mind,  but £3,000 for a standard balcony

..no thanks

 We will see if there are any offers on Britannia next week.  If not, no rush.

 

Unbelievable! 

Mind you, 7 night fly/cruises are always super expensive as the flight costs are amortized over such a short period.

[zap99]

1 minute ago, wowzz said:

Unbelievable! 

Mind you, 7 night fly/cruises are always super expensive as the flight costs are amortized over such a short period.

They are all pricing quite high at the moment. We have a week in majorca and a week in North Devon booked for next year, so we will wait it out.

[wowzz]

8 minutes ago, zap99 said:

We have a week in majorca and a week in North Devon booked for next year, so we will wait it out.

We've just returned from a week in Ilfracombe.  Lovely weather,  lovely views, and a great apartment,  but at £900 for a week, it wasn't cheap.

Off to Lanza in November where our villa with a private pool will cost £200 a week less ! 

I think all holiday companies, those renting out accommodation etc will face a tough few years. Those in the UK will have benefited from the staycation boom, but the opportunity to charge sky high prices is now over.

[Megabear2]

45 minutes ago, wowzz said:

Unbelievable! 

Mind you, 7 night fly/cruises are always super expensive as the flight costs are amortized over such a short period.

Paul Ludlow stated that fly cruises have been their weak spot. This certainly seems true if you  look at the leftover 2022 and early 2023 cruises.  Mind you lots of the offers now have no flights included so presumably that is the bugbear.  Will be interesting to see whether any of those Azura prices drop or whether they go the OBC route to try to shift them.

 

Incidentally as I asked the question, no I'm not booking anything else in fact I recently cancelled an October cruise as since June I've hardly been at home with trips in and out of Italy and am tired of travelling at present.

 

We have Christmas this year on Britannia locked in with everything including excursions and WiFi paid for but the basic cost plus the "treat" of PE seats has set us back £8,200 which is really quite ludicrous.  We have a deposit on Arvia for Christmas 2023 and a land based 10 days in Kefalonia in July next year and the cost of these two is approaching £11,000 so if circumstances continue to worsen the Arvia cruise may bite the dust to become a last minute saver.

[Harry Peterson]

I'm afraid I've never been impressed with Ludlow in his present capacity, but that's a personal view.  You can expect upbeat, but the Carnival share price movements are a better reflection of reality.

 

His comments are pre-'budget' of course, and now largely overtaken by events. Those events, the  overnight comments from the IMF, the impact on the Pound, and the rising interest rates make his viewpoint somewhat irrelevant now. That's certainly not his fault - nobody could have expected what happened last Friday - but I suspect a large chunk of the discretionary spending that goes on cruising has been blown right out of the water.  Health issues are also re-emerging, and that's also going to impact.

[Funboy]

1 hour ago, Harry Peterson said:

I'm afraid I've never been impressed with Ludlow in his present capacity, but that's a personal view.  You can expect upbeat, but the Carnival share price movements are a better reflection of reality.

 

His comments are pre-'budget' of course, and now largely overtaken by events. Those events, the  overnight comments from the IMF, the impact on the Pound, and the rising interest rates make his viewpoint somewhat irrelevant now. That's certainly not his fault - nobody could have expected what happened last Friday - but I suspect a large chunk of the discretionary spending that goes on cruising has been blown right out of the water.  Health issues are also re-emerging, and that's also going to impact.

The health issues and the cavalier attitude from P& O towards them will have a massive impact as we are experiencing them first hand. I am afraid that this, coupled with the new prices means no more cruises for the foreseeable future…..and certainly no more with Ludlow’s mob!

[MX-Drew]

As has been pointed out, his comments were made before last weeks bombshell so I wonder what he thinks now.

As for us, we were already moving away from P&O with their dreadful attitude to customers and the (very) low level of service on board compared to other cruise lines including other Carnival cruise lines.

The final nail in the coffin for us is the now very repetitive itineraries, surely they can find somewhere a bit different to sail even if it was only the smaller ships. 

[davecttr]

IIRC Carnival purchased P&O to get Princess and may have been treating P&O as a cash cow ever since. The dollar income from P&O cruisers who pay in pounds has been decreasing for years as the value of the pound falls. Carnival accountants don't like this. So do they increase fares or reduce expenditure. They reduce expenditure, made easier by the 'musn't complain' attitude of the british. Will we get evening turndown back? Was on a Marella cruise this month, full turndown service with chocolate on pillow. Another thing, why close your revenue earning venues, cut the MDR instead

[Harry Peterson]

36 minutes ago, davecttr said:

IIRC Carnival purchased P&O to get Princess and may have been treating P&O as a cash cow ever since. The dollar income from P&O cruisers who pay in pounds has been decreasing for years as the value of the pound falls. Carnival accountants don't like this. So do they increase fares or reduce expenditure. They reduce expenditure, made easier by the 'musn't complain' attitude of the british. Will we get evening turndown back? Was on a Marella cruise this month, full turndown service with chocolate on pillow. Another thing, why close your revenue earning venues, cut the MDR instead

I’d never thought about our ‘mustn’t complain’ reputation, as against Americans, but you have a point there.
 

I’ve never been able to understand quite how P&O manage to get away with their dismissive attitude to people paying them so much hard earned cash, but that’s probably it, linked with the age profile. It’s a Ryanair approach, but these aren’t exactly Ryanair fares!  The people on the ships themselves, largely from overseas, are great, but the mentality in their HQ is appalling, and that has to come from the top.

 

It shouldn’t be necessary to resort to court action to get P&O to meet their legal responsibilities, and the fact that it frequently is speaks volumes about the corporate mentality. This isn’t in itself Ludlow’s fault - it goes back several years - but it is his responsibility now.

[picsa]

From that article - 

 

"He said the summer season exceeded expectations, with ships being 85% full, when they had anticipated a rate of about 75%"

 

Perhaps the massive discounting that took place during the summer had some impact...

 

I was on one of the school holiday time cruises this summer that P&O were operating out of Malta, and where P&O were offering a week's fly cruise for £499 including the flights.

 

Almost everyone I spoke to on board had never been on a cruise before and every single one of them had only booked because of the bargain basement pricing.

 

And again, every single one of those people was very impressed by the whole cruise experience, but have no doubt, increase the prices and those customers won't be back.

[Son of Anarchy]

In recent years we've set ourselves a budget of £100 pppn  for the right cruise.  Got one or two potential intineries in mind for the next tranche of cruises.  If what we want is available we will be probably go for it but up to a similar budget, which may still be achievable based on previous prices.  But these are usually once a year itineries.  Not that interested in run of the mill stuff unless on a good deal, which I doubt will available in October/November.

[yorkshirephil]

I think any cruise line will struggle to increase prices over the next couple of years, initial prices may go up but I can't see them being maintained. It is certainly going to be difficult for mortgage payers but for the likes of us things are looking good with the rise in interest rates. We were going to have another self catering holiday in Feb but saw a 3 week cruise to Canaries and Cape Verde with Ambassador for just over £50 a night which is considerably cheaper than an apartment. As they say one door closes and another one opens, mind you that's why my Granddad was not a very good cabinet maker.

[bobstheboy]

As many of you rightly say, money is going to be tight and there will be good last minute bargains.

 

Have an Arvia cruise booked for Sep 23 within my budget with £800 OBC. Will not be booking any more early.

[bee-ess]

2 hours ago, davecttr said:

IIRC Carnival purchased P&O to get Princess and may have been treating P&O as a cash cow ever since. The dollar income from P&O cruisers who pay in pounds has been decreasing for years as the value of the pound falls. Carnival accountants don't like this. So do they increase fares or reduce expenditure. They reduce expenditure, made easier by the 'musn't complain' attitude of the british. Will we get evening turndown back? Was on a Marella cruise this month, full turndown service with chocolate on pillow. Another thing, why close your revenue earning venues, cut the MDR instead

I agree, we have just returned from Britannia, our first cruise since Feb 2020 and we were a bit underwhelmed with it. Quite a change to when we last cruised, it seems that the choice has disappeared, right from the lack of choice in the buffet to lack of entertainment in the bars.

Early evening the only entertainment was in the atrium for about. 30 mins and that was cancelled with no explanation on at least 2 evenings, Other things we would have liked that have gone include evening turndown service, loyalty party, syndicate quiz and the daytime entertainment on sea days was lacking.

I would say that the price we paid was overpriced for the product we received, cannot see how they can charge more without improving the product.

 

Also not happy with P&O attitude to covid now, I would like to see testing re-introduced to embark the ship for all our safety. Also there is no longer any FCC compensation if you are isolated which puts you at the mercy of your travel insurance. Judging by the amount of room service trays  outside of cabins I think there were quite a few cases of covid on our cruise and also masks were reintroduced for the last few days, so covid is not under control. which is a big worry.

 

So we are not going to be signing up to P&O on open this time as we are not keen to pay more for a lesser product.

 

 

[Bill Y]

2 hours ago, Son of Anarchy said:

In recent years we've set ourselves a budget of £100 pppn  for the right cruise.  Got one or two potential intineries in mind for the next tranche of cruises.  If what we want is available we will be probably go for it but up to a similar budget, which may still be achievable based on previous prices.  But these are usually once a year itineries.  Not that interested in run of the mill stuff unless on a good deal, which I doubt will available in October/November.

Unfortunately these more interesting itineraries that are normally offered on smaller ships tend to hold their prices. The bargain basement fares are normally on the repetitive itineraries that are churned out at an industrial rate, pile them high sell them cheap comes to mind.