Harvey Remnants

[stobe1]

Ahhh, yes. The armchair CEOs are out in full force acting as if they know how to plan for contingencies better than a cruise line that has decades of experience dealing with situations like this.

 

It makes for a good chuckle and provides some good comic relief in a serious situation like this.

[winddawn]

This is different than any storm they have dealt with in recent years. There best bet is to cancel this weekends cruises and worry how they will get the current cruisers back. The longer they wait the harder it gets.

 

I totally agree with this. No doubt Carnival will eventually (aka after noon tomorrow) work with those trying to make their way to their cruise safely, and dealing with disembarking passengers will require a totally different effort. At this point it seems increasingly likely that those already on a ship trying to make their way back home will be delayed and can only hope their vehicle will be worth retrieving when they finally do arrive, if they drove to port. Those that flew into port will be at the mercy of airlines to reschedule them to get home which could be dependent on when airports reopen and flight schedules return to near normal operations.

 

Since this storm has taken such an unexpected approach, I think lots of last-minute decisions will happen. IMHO----there is no way I'd travel into this storm's path if I could avoid it. Carnival will eventually offer alternatives as they can work out the particulars of safely docking ships already at sea, and then move from there to resume normal operations.

 

So sorry to those whose vacations have been impacted, but of course everyone wants safety to be top priority.

 

Thoughts and prayers to everyone in this storm's path and those trying to embark on a safe vacation.

[AlanF65]

https://www.carnival.com/travel-alerts.aspx

 

 

HURRICANE HARVEY

Weather Update #2 – 08/24/17 – 2:30 PM (EST)

 

Tropical Storm Harvey has now been upgraded to a hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico and the Port of Galveston is now closed to all marine traffic. At this time, no changes have been made to any of our Galveston sailings for this weekend and our itineraries remain as scheduled.

 

We will continue to closely monitor Hurricane Harvey’s forecasted track and provide guests with an update by 12:00 PM (CDT) tomorrow

 

To stay up to date on any changes, guests are asked to sign up for text alerts by texting the codes below to CRUISE (278473).

 

Carnival Freedom 08/26/17 - CCL1

Carnival Valor 08/26/17 - CCL2

Carnival Breeze 08/27/17 - CCL3

[CoastieBMC]

That really doesn't make any sense. You're blaming the port of Galveston over operating a port near the coast?

 

 

 

Well they picked the parking locations in referring to the parking and parking only!!

 

 

Sent from my iPhone using Forums

[buggerbean]

As an FYI. RCCL is holding off till Noon Friday to make any decisions also, they have a ship due in to Galveston this weekend also. Thoughts and prayers to those in the path of this storm!

[stressedmomof3]

For those wanting updates, the local news in Houston is reporting that Galveston is expecting at least a 2'-4' storm surge with the storm expected to make landfall at 2 a.m. Saturday morning. There is a good possibility of it making landfall, heading back out and then coming in again. For those gung-ho on flying into Houston, I certainly would not go any further south than Houston until you are 100% certain the cruise is a go and I sure would not be staying on any hotel grounds in the area on the 1st floor. hth.

 

Also be prepared. Have food and snacks on you. The power goes out at hotels too.

Edited August 24, 2017 by stressedmomof3

[perditax]

I'm not even remotely a meteorologist, but I like to hang out on meteorology forums. This one caught everyone off guard.

 

I rarely take the corporate side of any given debate, but Galveston cruise lines are in a pretty bad spot.

 

Hurricane season started in June, so hopefully people bought appropriate travel insurance.

[spleenstomper]

You also don't want to be driving through Texas hill country (flash flooding) to try and get somewhere where everyone is evacuating.

[jimmieg]

Ahhh, yes. The armchair CEOs are out in full force acting as if they know how to plan for contingencies better than a cruise line that has decades of experience dealing with situations like this.

 

It makes for a good chuckle and provides some good comic relief in a serious situation like this.

I had just said this to my wife when I saw your post. Agree. Decision-making logistics for several ships of people coming/going is above our paygrade for most of us.

Turning red with a little vein popping out is a behavior I've seen in airports when a flight is delayed/cancelled. Not healthy or helpful.

 

Sent from my MHA-L29 using Forums mobile app

[spleenstomper]

I'm not even remotely a meteorologist, but I like to hang out on meteorology forums. This one caught everyone off guard.

 

I rarely take the corporate side of any given debate, but Galveston cruise lines are in a pretty bad spot.

 

Hurricane season started in June, so hopefully people bought appropriate travel insurance.

 

If Galveston gets smacked hard, It's anyone's guess how long it will be before it is operational.

[spleenstomper]

Recon is back up and 972 mb pressure not even in the center yet...

 

(Category 3 around midnight? Maybe)

[spleenstomper]

Where are the ships currently that are supposed to come in this weekend? Has anyone checked ship tracker?

[Bruner1]

When Hurricane Ike hit Galveston in 2008 the cruise ships that were out diverted to NOLA. I don't know what Carnival and Royal Caribbean will do in this case, but it does show that they are watching conditions when Carnival has issued a notice on the port of Galveston's page for cruisers leaving this weekend to text them in order to receive updates via text.

 

"Carnival Cruise Line:

No changes to scheduled itineraries

Guests scheduled to depart on cruises from Galveston this weekend are asked to sign up for text alerts by texting the codes below to CRUISE (278473).

Carnival Freedom 08/26/17 - CCL1

Carnival Valor 08/26/17 - CCL2

Carnival Breeze 08/27/17 - CCL3"

[Thorncroft]

That really doesn't make any sense. You're blaming the port of Galveston over operating a port near the coast?

 

I think they're blaming the port for the parking situation, but most of the parking is private lots, no? How did they deal with all of the flooded vehicles after Ike? I think that was the one that wiped out Galveston last time, wasn't it?

[DebJ14]

I'm shocked that Carnival provided that. I tried to pull similar information. I simply asked about protocol and how their thinking works.

 

Oh - PLEASE STOP WITH THE JIM CANTORE is there. He is an over-rated personality who did great work early in his career but is all about being part of the news. He's been up in my neck of the woods for big 'blizzards' and similar events that didn't happen. He's a chaser. I wouldn't use that as a predictor for anything.

 

 

Jim Cantore was telling everyone this morning that the storm was going in further south. The next hurricane update moved the Hurricane Warning up to Sargent, TX, which is North, not South. You will get better information from the local TV stations, especially KHOU.com

 

The Tropical Storm warning for the Houston/Galveston area has been extended until Tuesday morning, so I don't see them reopening the port anytime soon.

 

Some school districts in the Houston/Galveston area have already cancelled school for both Friday and Monday. I think they remember what happened in 2004 during Tropical Storm Frances when they did not cancel school. The kids got to school, flooding became widespread and then they announced an early dismissal. Loads of kids were stranded at their schools overnight because all the surrounding streets were flooded.

 

If you knew how much our roads flood in the Houston area with normal storms you wouldn't even think of driving on our freeways with Epic rainfall totals expected. People drowned in their vehicles during Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 and the projected rainfall totals for Harvey exceed what we had during Allison.

 

Those of us who were in Texas for Ike remember that people on the Bolivar Peninsula went to bed thinking they would be just fine. Ike wobbled and they took a direct hit during the night. They were searching for bodies for a long time afterward. Our area had no power for 12 days.

 

With Rita we were told to evacuate because Houston would take a direct hit. We went to Dallas. There was hardly a raindrop in Houston. The storm hit the Beaumont/Port Arthur area instead. Over 100 people died in the evacuation.

 

I know exactly how you are feeling with cruises coming up this weekend. We were scheduled to sail on the Conquest when we evacuated for Rita. Carnival called us and asked if we could make the cruise. We told them we were stuck in Dallas. They enforced a return by zip code to stagger the traffic so that people would not die on the return. We did try to leave our son's home on Saturday so we could make the cruise, but there were roadblocks set up to check your zipcode. We evacuated on a Wednesday and were not allowed to return until the following Tuesday. Carnival gave us a full refund.

[winddawn]

Jim Cantore was telling everyone this morning that the storm was going in further south. The next hurricane update moved the Hurricane Warning up to Sargent, TX, which is North, not South. You will get better information from the local TV stations, especially KHOU.com

 

The Tropical Storm warning for the Houston/Galveston area has been extended until Tuesday morning, so I don't see them reopening the port anytime soon.

 

Some school districts in the Houston/Galveston area have already cancelled school for both Friday and Monday. I think they remember what happened in 2004 during Tropical Storm Frances when they did not cancel school. The kids got to school, flooding became widespread and then they announced an early dismissal. Loads of kids were stranded at their schools overnight because all the surrounding streets were flooded.

 

If you knew how much our roads flood in the Houston area with normal storms you wouldn't even think of driving on our freeways with Epic rainfall totals expected. People drowned in their vehicles during Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 and the projected rainfall totals for Harvey exceed what we had during Allison.

 

Those of us who were in Texas for Ike remember that people on the Bolivar Peninsula went to bed thinking they would be just fine. Ike wobbled and they took a direct hit during the night. They were searching for bodies for a long time afterward. Our area had no power for 12 days.

 

With Rita we were told to evacuate because Houston would take a direct hit. We went to Dallas. There was hardly a raindrop in Houston. The storm hit the Beaumont/Port Arthur area instead. Over 100 people died in the evacuation.

 

I know exactly how you are feeling with cruises coming up this weekend. We were scheduled to sail on the Conquest when we evacuated for Rita. Carnival called us and asked if we could make the cruise. We told them we were stuck in Dallas. They enforced a return by zip code to stagger the traffic so that people would not die on the return. We did try to leave our son's home on Saturday so we could make the cruise, but there were roadblocks set up to check your zipcode. We evacuated on a Wednesday and were not allowed to return until the following Tuesday. Carnival gave us a full refund.

 

Thanks for sharing your very personal experience in the area under similar tropical weather situations. Hopefully others will heed accordingly and try to keep their families safe. Best wishes to you and your family.

[perditax]

Updated NHC track:

 

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/212153.shtml?cone#contents

[lhsail]

Jim Cantore was telling everyone this morning that the storm was going in further south. The next hurricane update moved the Hurricane Warning up to Sargent, TX, which is North, not South. You will get better information from the local TV stations, especially KHOU.com

 

The Tropical Storm warning for the Houston/Galveston area has been extended until Tuesday morning, so I don't see them reopening the port anytime soon.

 

Some school districts in the Houston/Galveston area have already cancelled school for both Friday and Monday. I think they remember what happened in 2004 during Tropical Storm Frances when they did not cancel school. The kids got to school, flooding became widespread and then they announced an early dismissal. Loads of kids were stranded at their schools overnight because all the surrounding streets were flooded.

 

If you knew how much our roads flood in the Houston area with normal storms you wouldn't even think of driving on our freeways with Epic rainfall totals expected. People drowned in their vehicles during Tropical Storm Allison in 2001 and the projected rainfall totals for Harvey exceed what we had during Allison.

 

Those of us who were in Texas for Ike remember that people on the Bolivar Peninsula went to bed thinking they would be just fine. Ike wobbled and they took a direct hit during the night. They were searching for bodies for a long time afterward. Our area had no power for 12 days.

 

With Rita we were told to evacuate because Houston would take a direct hit. We went to Dallas. There was hardly a raindrop in Houston. The storm hit the Beaumont/Port Arthur area instead. Over 100 people died in the evacuation.

 

I know exactly how you are feeling with cruises coming up this weekend. We were scheduled to sail on the Conquest when we evacuated for Rita. Carnival called us and asked if we could make the cruise. We told them we were stuck in Dallas. They enforced a return by zip code to stagger the traffic so that people would not die on the return. We did try to leave our son's home on Saturday so we could make the cruise, but there were roadblocks set up to check your zipcode. We evacuated on a Wednesday and were not allowed to return until the following Tuesday. Carnival gave us a full refund.

 

Thank you for your very realistic post. We just moved to the Hill County about 4 years ago and have seen, fortunately not personally, devastating flooding from weather events not nearly as severe as this is predicted to be. If you haven't experienced it, I'm not sure you can have an appreciation for it. It's not just about the eye of the storm blowing in.

 

I've also experienced the extreme disappointment of a long anticipated cruise cancelled by a hurricane. It's tough to look at your packed suitcases and know you're not going. But, it's not worth putting yourself at risk. And, as has been commented by others, the Houston area and even up to San Antonio and Austin will most likely have residual effects.

[LouisianaCruiser4200]

Where are the ships currently that are supposed to come in this weekend? Has anyone checked ship tracker?

Carnival Valor - left Progreso today headed for Galveston

Carnival Freedom - left Cozumel today headed for Galveston

Carnival Breeze - departed Belize, headed for Cozumel.

Liberty of the Seas - departed Costa Maya, headed for Cozumel

[OCruisers]

The Tropical Storm warning for the Houston/Galveston area has been extended until Tuesday morning, so I don't see them reopening the port anytime soon.

 

Agree. At this point getting into and out of this area is very "IFFY".

[dreadpirate3]

Originally posted by DebJ14 The Tropical Storm warning for the Houston/Galveston area has been extended until Tuesday morning, so I don't see them reopening the port anytime soon.

Agree. At this point getting into and out of this area is very "IFFY".

 

I have been following this thread with interest as someone who lives in an area that is prone to hurricanes.

 

Please do not put yourself and your family in harms way by driving toward this storm.

[Thorncroft]

I have been following this thread with interest as someone who lives in an area that is prone to hurricanes.

 

Please do not put yourself and your family in harms way by driving toward this storm.

 

There will be die hard cruisers, wading through evacuation traffic, headed to the port. They will not be denied, under any circumstances. LOL

[Bruner1]

I think they're blaming the port for the parking situation, but most of the parking is private lots, no? How did they deal with all of the flooded vehicles after Ike? I think that was the one that wiped out Galveston last time, wasn't it?

 

I don't think Harvey will compare to Ike, at least I hope not. Galveston took a direct hit from Ike and I'm pretty sure that all cars parked in the port parking lots were totaled. That is probably why they are making provisions now for people to cancel their parking reservations and also for those who are already on ships to have family members move their vehicles.

[Pellaz]

Here's the latest storm discussion from NHC. I love reading these, because they let you see exactly what the forecasters are thinking and why, and how tricky these things can be.

 

 

Hurricane Harvey Discussion Number 18

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017

400 PM CDT Thu Aug 24 2017

 

Since the issuance of the special advisory at 1800 UTC, data from a

dropsonde released by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicated

that Harvey's central pressure has dropped to 976 mb. However, the

plane has not measured winds stronger than what was observed by the

previous Air Force flight (although the NOAA P3 is flying a

research mission at a nonstandard level). For now, the initial

intensity will remain 75 kt pending data from another Air Force

flight this evening.

 

Harvey's initial motion estimate is 330/9 kt. A strengthening

mid-level high over the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to push

Harvey northwestward by tonight, and a northwest or north-northwest

motion should continue up until landfall. However, a stronger

mid-level high centered over the western United States is forecast

to cause Harvey to slow down considerably and stall near or just

inland of the Texas coast by days 3 and 4. After that time, the

track models have trended toward showing Harvey moving slowly

eastward by day 5, but it's too early to know if the center will

remain over land or re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico.

The track guidance is very tightly clustered for the first 36-48

hours, which covers the period of landfall, but then there is much

greater spread in the models after 48 hours when Harvey is forecast

to slow down. Such guidance is usually an indication that the

cyclone will move very little, which is reflected in the official

forecast.

 

Harvey remains in an environment for further strengthening.

Vertical shear is low, and the hurricane will be moving over a warm

eddy of relatively higher oceanic heat content within the next

12-24 hours. As a result, the NHC intensity forecast calls for

additional intensification at least for the next 24 hours, with

Harvey expected to attain major hurricane strength on Friday.

There may be some fluctuations in intensity up until landfall due to

the possibility of an eyewall replacement or cooling of the shallow

shelf waters of Texas, but regardless Harvey is forecast to reach

the coast as a major hurricane. The intensity forecast after 48

hours is tricky because it all depends on how far inland Harvey

moves into Texas. If it stays stalls closer to the coast, as recent

model trends have suggested, then the cyclone may be able to

maintain a higher intensity with a greater proportion of its

circulation remaining over water. For that reason, the updated NHC

intensity forecast keeps Harvey as a tropical storm on days 3

through 5, but there is greater-than-normal uncertainty in this

part of the forecast.

 

It is critical that users not focus on the exact forecast track

of Harvey, since cycle-to-cycle adjustment are likely. All

locations within the hurricane and storm surge warning areas should

be preparing for the possibility of major hurricane-force winds and

life-threatening storm surge.

 

Key Messages:

 

1. Harvey is expected to be a major hurricane at landfall, bringing

life-threatening storm surge, rainfall, and wind hazards to portions

of the Texas coast. Preparations to protect life and property should

be completed by tonight, as tropical-storm-force winds will first

arrive in the hurricane and storm surge warning areas on Friday.

 

2. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for much of the Texas coast.

Life-threatening storm surge flooding could reach heights of 6 to 12

feet above ground level at the coast between the north entrance of

the Padre Island National Seashore and Sargent. For a depiction of

areas at risk, see the Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic at

hurricanes.gov.

 

3. Devastating and life-threatening flooding is expected across the

middle and upper Texas coast from heavy rainfall of 15 to 25 inches,

with isolated amounts as high as 35 inches, from Friday through next

Wednesday. Please refer to products from your local National Weather

Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more

information on the flooding hazard.

 

4. The Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map is available on the NHC

website. This product depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario -

the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being

exceeded at each individual location. This map best represents

the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and

warning areas.

 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

 

INIT 24/2100Z 24.7N 93.9W 75 KT 85 MPH

12H 25/0600Z 25.5N 94.8W 95 KT 110 MPH

24H 25/1800Z 26.7N 96.0W 110 KT 125 MPH

36H 26/0600Z 27.8N 96.7W 105 KT 120 MPH

48H 26/1800Z 28.5N 97.1W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND

72H 27/1800Z 28.7N 97.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND

96H 28/1800Z 28.5N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND

120H 29/1800Z 29.0N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

 

[spleenstomper]

Levi's latest video on tropical tidbits (thursday evening)

 

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/blog/2017/08/25/thursday-evening-harvey-continuing-to-strengthen-devastating-flooding-and-winds-expected-in-texas-beginning-friday-night/