How Do Cruise Lines Sail Again?

[npcl]

4 hours ago, pete_coach said:

What I showed was actual numbers to dispute your statement "Norovirus puts very few people into the hospital.  They do not tie up ventilators and advanced medical facilities for weeks at a time.  For that matter neither does the flu. ". 

Percentages in the USA are the same in Canada and many other countries. The numbers though, are significantly different.

Your claim of flu and Noro not taking up beds and facilities is wrong. That is all I am trying to convey.

Relatively speaking .08 hospital days per infected for the flu and .006 hospital days per infected Noro patient they are relatively few. with the flu even that number per infected stress our hospital system. compared wit Covid-19 at 2.8 hospitals days per infected.  That number will not stress, it will break our hospital system if this get loose.

[JeffElizabeth]

I am hopeful that both the infected rate and death rate stay low. I do want to se the results of more testing. I believe the US is better set up to handle this than Italy. 

[pete_coach]

9 hours ago, npcl said:

Relatively speaking .08 hospital days per infected for the flu and .006 hospital days per infected Noro patient they are relatively few. with the flu even that number per infected stress our hospital system. compared wit Covid-19 at 2.8 hospitals days per infected.  That number will not stress, it will break our hospital system if this get loose.

You are once again wrong. Not all infected persons need hospitalization, just like people with influenza. Hospitalization is not needed for most infected people.  In fact, most infected people are just to told to stay home.

You are good at playing with percentages but, stick to facts about what to do when you are confirmed infected

Stay home except to get medical care

• Stay home: People who are mildly ill with COVID-19 are able to recover at home. Do not leave, except to get medical care. Do not visit public areas.
• Stay in touch with your doctor. Call before you get medical care. Be sure to get care if you feel worse or you think it is an emergency.
• Avoid public transportation: Avoid using public transportation, ride-sharing, or taxi

Source:   CDC.Gov. and I worked in health care.

[NMTraveller]

Here is what it would take for me to start cruising in the near future.

 

1.  Show that they get it.  Provide dining rooms, theaters, and public places with social distancing until corona is a thing of the past.  

 

2.  Demonstrate that they have some of the cleanest ships at sea.

 

3.  Test their employees for corona so that the crew are not a source of the spread.

 

4.  The crew should not be housed in cramped quarters.  House them in cabins if need be.

 

I am in good heath,  but I do not wish to spread Corona or be quarantined for two weeks.  Cruise ships should not be a petri dish for Corona.

 

I am rebooking my May cruise for next year...

Edited March 21, 2020 by NMTraveller

[crusinbanjo]

On 3/19/2020 at 11:18 AM, HAL4NOW said:

Shareholders don't always do so well in a restructured bankruptcy. 

In any bankruptcies, shareholders are wiped out and bondholders don't always do so well.  That's my experience.

[Heartgrove]

It would also depend on the bankruptcy rules where these cruise corporations are incorporated. They have used flags of convenience to avoid paying taxes in the USA so the U. S. Government should not provide bailout money to them.

 

It will be interesting if the offer of using Carnival ships as medical facilities is taken up. Would Carnival claim that they could not reuse that ship and make the government pay for a new one? An example is MSC has offered the MSC Opera, one of their older ships in their  fleet, as a facility.

[npcl]

13 hours ago, pete_coach said:

You are once again wrong. Not all infected persons need hospitalization, just like people with influenza. Hospitalization is not needed for most infected people.  In fact, most infected people are just to told to stay home.

You are good at playing with percentages but, stick to facts about what to do when you are confirmed infected

Stay home except to get medical care

• Stay home: People who are mildly ill with COVID-19 are able to recover at home. Do not leave, except to get medical care. Do not visit public areas.
• Stay in touch with your doctor. Call before you get medical care. Be sure to get care if you feel worse or you think it is an emergency.
• Avoid public transportation: Avoid using public transportation, ride-sharing, or taxi

Source:   CDC.Gov. and I worked in health care.

Are you intentional either not reading or choosing not to follow what I am saying.

 

I never said that everyone goes into the hospital.  I stated that approximately 10% of Covid-19 cases go to the hospital.

The numbers I calculated were using that number.

 

  Let me walk through it again

 

If with the flu you have 46 million infected and you have 550,000 that get hospitalized for 7 days (the actual number if 5-6 but rounding up to 7)  in that case 550000 X 7 = 3,850,000 hospital days which if you divide that by the total number of infected, you know, the 46 million you get 3,850,000 /46000000 = .083 hospital days per infected person.  A way to measure anticipated  hospital workload based upon the size of the outbreak. 

 

With Covid-19 there are a range of estimates ranging from 10-20% of those infected require hospitalization.  Reports that have looked at full populations the one about the Diamond came up with a lower figure so I will use the 10% number, the lower end of the range.  Papers have indicated that the average length of hospital stay is abo. In which case

you have 10% of the infected population X the average length of stay 28 days and you get an average of 2.8 hospital days being consumed on average per the infected population group.  Using this ratio of 2.8 you can calculate the anticipated number of hospital days and beds that will be needed based on how large the infection gets.

 

 

1000 infected = 2800 hospital days 

10000 infected 28000 hospital days

 

The ratio for Covid-19 is 2.8 days  for the flu it is .08.

 

10,000 cases in New York and they are already running out of beds.

 

Note there is not total agreement on the average number of hospital days.  I have seen some that go as low as 14.  But most of the papers I have seen use the longer number.  10% X 14 =1.4 could be the lower boundary condition for the calculation but then again 20 percent X 2.8 could be the upper bound  20% X 28 = 5.6.  Literature seems to mostly support the 28 day figure which would match length of time before recovery numbers.

 

 

 

Edited March 22, 2020 by npcl

[npcl]

12 hours ago, crusinbanjo said:

In any bankruptcies, shareholders are wiped out and bondholders don't always do so well.  That's my experience.

However, most don't have substantially more assets, just not one easily sold, as well as having a business that is thriving in a normal situation.  In the case of the cruise lines it is a liquidity crunch in unusual circumstances.  In such situations a more normal situation would be to restructure, wipe the share holders, raise sufficient operating funds to operate the company, and either retire a major portion of the debt for the next few years, or give the debt holders an equity position.  In any case the company could not afford to impact the customers because if they wiped out deposits and FCCs on the books it would kill the recovery of the business.

[pete_coach]

10 hours ago, npcl said:

Are you intentional either not reading or choosing not to follow what I am saying.

 

I never said that everyone goes into the hospital.  I stated that approximately 10% of Covid-19 cases go to the hospital.

The numbers I calculated were using that number.

 

  Let me walk through it again

 

If with the flu you have 46 million infected and you have 550,000 that get hospitalized for 7 days (the actual number if 5-6 but rounding up to 7)  in that case 550000 X 7 = 3,850,000 hospital days which if you divide that by the total number of infected, you know, the 46 million you get 3,850,000 /46000000 = .083 hospital days per infected person.  A way to measure anticipated  hospital workload based upon the size of the outbreak. 

 

With Covid-19 there are a range of estimates ranging from 10-20% of those infected require hospitalization.  Reports that have looked at full populations the one about the Diamond came up with a lower figure so I will use the 10% number, the lower end of the range.  Papers have indicated that the average length of hospital stay is abo. In which case

you have 10% of the infected population X the average length of stay 28 days and you get an average of 2.8 hospital days being consumed on average per the infected population group.  Using this ratio of 2.8 you can calculate the anticipated number of hospital days and beds that will be needed based on how large the infection gets.

 

 

1000 infected = 2800 hospital days 

10000 infected 28000 hospital days

 

The ratio for Covid-19 is 2.8 days  for the flu it is .08.

 

10,000 cases in New York and they are already running out of beds.

 

Note there is not total agreement on the average number of hospital days.  I have seen some that go as low as 14.  But most of the papers I have seen use the longer number.  10% X 14 =1.4 could be the lower boundary condition for the calculation but then again 20 percent X 2.8 could be the upper bound  20% X 28 = 5.6.  Literature seems to mostly support the 28 day figure which would match length of time before recovery numbers.

 

 

 

You said: "Norovirus puts very few people into the hospital.  They do not tie up ventilators and advanced medical facilities for weeks at a time.  For that matter neither does the flu. 

You said: "Noro I did not include actual hosp and infect states only the impact on hospital work load  "

I said " the CDC has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, and the number of deaths may be as high as 30,000."

You play with percentages like a political candidate or statistician. Using a percentage is irrelevant if you don't know what the whole number is. Some hide behind statistics, because they do not seem as real.   I use real number for the real impact.

As I said" the CDC has estimated (based on weekly influenza surveillance data) that at least 12,000 people have died from influenza between Oct. 1, 2019 through Feb. 1, 2020, ." and "conclude that norovirus causes on average 570–800 deaths, 56,000–71,000 hospitalizations, 400,000 ED visits, 1.7–1.9 million outpatient visits, and 19–21 million total illnesses each year in the United States""

That is why I say you are wrong. You make conjecture the CDC has real numbers.

Thank you for the discussion. 🙂

[bouhunter]

NO ONE knows what will transpire over the next few weeks or months.  The posters here debating numbers and statistics are too funny.  Take a break and watch some movies, all your over-thinking this is a complete waste of time.

[Tampa Girl]

On 3/19/2020 at 11:42 AM, swin26 said:

Hopefully after this, the cruise lines will require passports even for closed loop cruises.  Passports need to be a requirement for all cruise travel.  

 

 

What do passports have to do with this thread?

Edited March 22, 2020 by Tampa Girl
Typo.

[Tampa Girl]

On 3/21/2020 at 1:02 AM, JeffElizabeth said:

I am hopeful that both the infected rate and death rate stay low. I do want to se the results of more testing. I believe the US is better set up to handle this than Italy. 

 

From what I have read, Italy has very good medical care.  I do not know that the U.S. is better set up to handle this, at least as of now; and we certainly were not prepared for a pandemic.  As to why so many Italians have the highest death rates outside of China, someone speculated that Italian smoke more than we do.  Since the virus attacks the lungs, it would stand to reason that a smoker's lungs would be more severely impacted.  An interesting hypothesis, at least.

[npcl]

14 hours ago, bouhunter said:

NO ONE knows what will transpire over the next few weeks or months.  The posters here debating numbers and statistics are too funny.  Take a break and watch some movies, all your over-thinking this is a complete waste of time.

Funnier than that we are using the same numbers it is an an argument over semantics.

[CruiserBruce]

On 3/20/2020 at 10:02 PM, JeffElizabeth said:

I am hopeful that both the infected rate and death rate stay low. I do want to se the results of more testing. I believe the US is better set up to handle this than Italy. 

Actually Italy has more hospital beds per capita than the US. And they are slammed.

[jmkennett]

On 3/21/2020 at 5:07 AM, NMTraveller said:

Here is what it would take for me to start cruising in the near future.

 

1.  Show that they get it.  Provide dining rooms, theaters, and public places with social distancing until corona is a thing of the past.  

 

2.  Demonstrate that they have some of the cleanest ships at sea.

 

3.  Test their employees for corona so that the crew are not a source of the spread.

 

4.  The crew should not be housed in cramped quarters.  House them in cabins if need be.

 

I am in good heath,  but I do not wish to spread Corona or be quarantined for two weeks.  Cruise ships should not be a petri dish for Corona.

 

I am rebooking my May cruise for next year...

I agree.  I think capacity will be limited.  I would guess at least a 30% reduction to start, which would lead to less crew as well.  I’m betting a majority will be in and out of Florida and East Coast, sort of going back to how it was after 9/11.  

 

I can’t imagine there will be any possibility of cruises in the Med, let alone anywhere in Europe until 2021.  And that is a big maybe.  And if in 2021, probably no more than one or maybe two ships per line.  I think Europe is two years away from any recovery for cruises.  Obviously, Italy is a mess.

 

The biggest hurdle to getting back will be what happens if someone exhibits symptoms of CV while on some random sailing?  That is what has to keep cruise line execs up at night.  Does it all start over and ban ships from entering ports?  Quarantine everyone again?  Shut down society.  Government officials will be trigger happy.  That will be the hardest thing for the public to get over when making the decision to get back to cruising.  Who wants to end up quarantined or having a cruise to nowhere?

 

I don’t know the answer.  All I know, is that the economy needs this to end, sooner rather than later, and some common sense will have to prevail to get people back to work.  And that includes getting the travel industry moving again.  I work in a big resort and just watched 1000 people get furloughed.  One week, we were fine, the next, this.  Lots of decisions being made in our society, without a plan for those decisions.  

 

It pains me for all the crew on all these ships, sitting in limbo.   Cruising is my favorite way to travel and probably my favorite thing to do.  Just sucks!

[pete_coach]

16 hours ago, Tampa Girl said:

 

From what I have read, Italy has very good medical care.  I do not know that the U.S. is better set up to handle this, at least as of now; and we certainly were not prepared for a pandemic.  As to why so many Italians have the highest death rates outside of China, someone speculated that Italian smoke more than we do.  Since the virus attacks the lungs, it would stand to reason that a smoker's lungs would be more severely impacted.  An interesting hypothesis, at least.

I used to do business in Italy, in the northern part, Milan and up. I feel the reason for the high incidents is the lifestyle in Italy. People live very close together in rather small apartments,. They go out every day to shop for necessities, the butcher, the bakery,the cheese shop the wine store etc because they have little storage and small fridges in their homes. Also, they are very social. they are out almost every evening congregating in the local piazza to socialize. They have their morning shots of espresso crowded into tiny cafes. They get together nightly in trattorias to socialize, drink wine etc. That an dyes, so many Italians still smoke, especially the older generation.

Only my opinion and nothing to substantiate it but, having spent more than a decade going there regularly, that is my observation.

[thyme2go]

Agree with the observation above............

As far as cruise lines,  I believe this will not be the only bio threat we face going forward.   Covid-19 and Ebola both jumped to humans after being in their mammals for who knows how long.  With that in mind I would feel reassured if the cruise lines refit/rebuild their ventilation systems during the downtime.   Make every cabin a safe zone with HEPA filtration for all air exchanged---heating and cooling.  Make sure all mold and other contaminates have been removed (HVAC) and are part of routine cleaning as in rooms.  And while they're at it, they may as well deep clean all rooms between occupants....rather than a few hours turn around (which is profit driven, not passenger driven).........have 24 hours to do a thorough job.    Flame on........................... : /   

Edited March 23, 2020 by thyme2go
wording

[AncientWanderer]

1 hour ago, thyme2go said:

Agree with the observation above............

As far as cruise lines,  I believe this will not be the only bio threat we face going forward.   Covid-19 and Ebola both jumped to humans after being in their mammals for who knows how long.  With that in mind I would feel reassured if the cruise lines refit/rebuild their ventilation systems during the downtime.   Make every cabin a safe zone with HEPA filtration for all air exchanged---heating and cooling.  Make sure all mold and other contaminates have been removed (HVAC) and are part of routine cleaning as in rooms.  And while they're at it, they may as well deep clean all rooms between occupants....rather than a few hours turn around (which is profit driven, not passenger driven).........have 24 hours to do a thorough job.    Flame on........................... : /   

 

Very valid points.  I have been concerned over the past few years about how quickly the staterooms are turned.  While it is nice to have one's cabin available upon boarding, there just cannot be time in between for a deep clean. 

I personally think we will see a lot of changes to cruise routine -- like returning to the old standards of spacing between dining tables, things like that.  Customers will just insist on some things like that.

[Petronillus]

On 3/21/2020 at 9:06 AM, Heartgrove said:

It would also depend on the bankruptcy rules where these cruise corporations are incorporated. They have used flags of convenience to avoid paying taxes in the USA so the U. S. Government should not provide bailout money to them.

 

It's seems plain that we're seeing the end of an era, and that may be all to the good. But I've just read a piece in The Verge that makes a strong case against offering a U.S. bailout of the cruise industry. See https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/23/21187076/cruise-line-industry-bailout-trump-coronavirus-us-companies-tax.

It makes me wonder if we are witnessing the equivalent of the Hindenberg disaster. Dirigibles were an elegant form of transoceanic transportation. But the industry died along with the Hindenberg -- even though safer alternatives to hydrogen gas were quickly discovered.

[Wehwalt]

10 hours ago, Petronillus said:

 

It's seems plain that we're seeing the end of an era, and that may be all to the good. But I've just read a piece in The Verge that makes a strong case against offering a U.S. bailout of the cruise industry. See https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/23/21187076/cruise-line-industry-bailout-trump-coronavirus-us-companies-tax.

It makes me wonder if we are witnessing the equivalent of the Hindenberg disaster. Dirigibles were an elegant form of transoceanic transportation. But the industry died along with the Hindenberg -- even though safer alternatives to hydrogen gas were quickly discovered.

I read it. It is from a rather political perspective, and a rather superficial treatment. Indeed, I think it could be summed up as "Trump likes it so we don't." I'll take opinions from a website not featuring the likely Pulitzer-winner "I wanna dance with somebody (on Instagram)".

[cbr663]

21 hours ago, thyme2go said:

.. With that in mind I would feel reassured if the cruise lines refit/rebuild their ventilation systems during the downtime.   Make every cabin a safe zone with HEPA filtration for all air exchanged---heating and cooling.  Make sure all mold and other contaminates have been removed (HVAC) and are part of routine cleaning as in rooms.  And while they're at it, they may as well deep clean all rooms between occupants....rather than a few hours turn around (which is profit driven, not passenger driven).........have 24 hours to do a thorough job.    Flame on........................... : /   

 

HEPA filtration would not enable a cabin to be a safe zone.  While HEPA filters do remove a lot of particles, they do not remove 100%.  HEPA filters should be used in combination with other tools to significantly reduce risk, but as it stands right now, cannot totally eliminate it.

 

Cruise lines will tell you that they currently conduct all required cleaning and maintenance of HVAC systems and that all rooms are clean.  IMO, this isn't an issue of cleanliness, as we have all seen cruise ships constantly being cleaned.  The droplets from a person sneezing will still spread in a clean and disinfected environment.

[cbr663]

14 hours ago, Petronillus said:

 

It's seems plain that we're seeing the end of an era, and that may be all to the good. But I've just read a piece in The Verge that makes a strong case against offering a U.S. bailout of the cruise industry. See https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/23/21187076/cruise-line-industry-bailout-trump-coronavirus-us-companies-tax.

It makes me wonder if we are witnessing the equivalent of the Hindenberg disaster. Dirigibles were an elegant form of transoceanic transportation. But the industry died along with the Hindenberg -- even though safer alternatives to hydrogen gas were quickly discovered.

 

The CBC has an article on the Zaandam (https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cruise-ship-holland-america-covid-19-canadians-1.55066740) and I noticed today that it has stopped allowing people to provide comments on the article.  Unfortunately, you now only have my word on this - the people commenting had very harsh words for these passengers and there was very little support for the Canadian gov't to do anything to help them.  It was quite surprising to me.

 

I realize that this is just a snapshot in time of a particular incident.  It does have me questioning though how the tax payers on the whole feel about bailing out this industry in its current state.

[daisy-mae]

3 minutes ago, cbr663 said:

 

Unfortunately, you now only have my word on this - the people commenting had very harsh words for these passengers and there was very little support for the Canadian gov't to do anything to help them.  It was quite surprising to me.

 

I realize that this is just a snapshot in time of a particular incident.  It does have me questioning though how the tax payers on the whole feel about bailing out this industry in its current state.

 

If you read the comments on any article related to stranded travelers - and not only cruise ship passengers - you will note a very discernible sanctimonious tone by those whose "superior" intellect caused them to remain at home. It seems to be human nature to find fault.

[chisoxfan]

On 3/23/2020 at 5:25 PM, Petronillus said:

 

It's seems plain that we're seeing the end of an era, and that may be all to the good. But I've just read a piece in The Verge that makes a strong case against offering a U.S. bailout of the cruise industry. See https://www.theverge.com/2020/3/23/21187076/cruise-line-industry-bailout-trump-coronavirus-us-companies-tax.

It makes me wonder if we are witnessing the equivalent of the Hindenberg disaster. Dirigibles were an elegant form of transoceanic transportation. But the industry died along with the Hindenberg -- even though safer alternatives to hydrogen gas were quickly discovered.

Here is another article discussing the merits of a cruise bailout - maybe less 'biased' but still makes similar points.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/irenelevine/2020/03/24/why-cruise-lines-should-be-at-the-end-of-the-bailout-line/#6c0713ad1f65

 I am philosophically opposed to all bailouts and think these latest proposals (fiscal and monetary) cannot end well for the dollar and our country.

Without getting off topic more, I do think cruising has seen some serious PR damage with the CV (particularly among those who have never cruised). Considering the huge/ increasing passenger capacity being undertaken and relatively longer lead times in the cruise planning cycle , this could signal some depressed times for years. 

 

[Petronillus]

3 hours ago, chisoxfan said:

 I am philosophically opposed to all bailouts and think these latest proposals (fiscal and monetary) cannot end well for the dollar and our country.

 

Amen! From your lips to God's ear!