Future cruises at 50% capacity thoughts?

[SouthLyonCruiser]

15 hours ago, npcl said:

The cruise lines would be willing to eat that cost on some cruises just to get ships moving again and more importantly to get people to believe that the cruise lines are operating again and make more bookings and send them more money.  That is far far more important to them than any profit/loss in the short term.

 

If they cannot convince people to keep booking they are truly dead in the water.

Great take on a tough issue. Thanks.

[ray98]

They may start that way and take the losses just to get sailings going again but it is not sustainable long term.  There is no way they can make a profit by eliminating 50% of their guests.  The only other recourse is to raise prices but that can't happen on a large scale because the entire cruise industry will be soft after this and no one is going to pay that amount of money to sail on a mainstream line.

 

Eventually society will adapt and move forward, it will be just another risk we take in life like we do everyday.  Once we reach the bottom of the curve the media will find another crisis to jump on and without 24/7 body count tickers the anxiety will fade.

[disneykins]

14 hours ago, ECCruise said:

Can't be done legally.  PVSA.

Don't know what this is but assume its some government regulation. Like the Jones Act? 100 years old, I believe. Cant the cruise lines lobby government to cut them some slack, no money involved, just help us out a little?

[ray98]

22 minutes ago, disneykins said:

Don't know what this is but assume its some government regulation. Like the Jones Act? 100 years old, I believe. Cant the cruise lines lobby government to cut them some slack, no money involved, just help us out a little?

 

I don't see the government doing anything to help the industry.  At best they have put an target on them based on half truths.

Edited May 17, 2020 by ray98

[ColeThornton]

7 minutes ago, disneykins said:

Don't know what this is but assume its some government regulation. Like the Jones Act? 100 years old, I believe. Cant the cruise lines lobby government to cut them some slack, no money involved, just help us out a little?

 

Two different things in the maritime industry.  A quick Google Search will give you lots of info on the PVSA.

[disneykins]

Just read the Wiki on PVSA and there are exceptions. Why not get an exception in these extraordinary times. Temporary until things are back to normal. Better than sitting idle and having no income. 

[tallnthensome]

39 minutes ago, disneykins said:

Just read the Wiki on PVSA and there are exceptions. Why not get an exception in these extraordinary times. Temporary until things are back to normal. Better than sitting idle and having no income. 

Yes, many hope they would get an exemption from that but like others have said, don’t expect much sympathy from our government and CDC to them right now. Sailing to their private islands and cruises to nowhere might be all they could start off with at the moment. 

[Travelling2Some]

I have been wondering if the government might grant a temporary PVSA exception in the best interests of the Alaskan economy.  Alaskans are not only being hit with the loss of the summer cruise season but with oil prices tanking too at the same time.  If ships could be allowed to sail directly from Seattle to the Alaskan ports I could see that motivating the American government.  Some Canadian posters on CC have indicated that there was already significant anti-cruise sentiment in the Canadian ports even before COVID due to the poor environmental record of the industry and that they will be very reluctant to welcome cruise ships.   

[poffles]

On 5/14/2020 at 5:57 PM, Buford T Justiice said:

 

 

I agree.  Maybe NCL can also incorporate an algorithm to take into account customers onboard spend.

 

I can guarantee they already have an algorithm for everything they have done, do now and will do in the future.  Cost analysis 101.

[AFS1970]

I suspect that most lines will cancel the bulk of the cruises outright instead of picking and choosing passengers. They will make it advantageous to take future credit over refunds and then raise the prices on the newer shorter cruises, not much, just enough that your 7 day credit will now cover a 4 day cruise. this will allow them to keep passengers and return to sailing. It also gives them your prepaid fares as an interest free loan. 

[poffles]

1 hour ago, AFS1970 said:

I suspect that most lines will cancel the bulk of the cruises outright instead of picking and choosing passengers. They will make it advantageous to take future credit over refunds and then raise the prices on the newer shorter cruises, not much, just enough that your 7 day credit will now cover a 4 day cruise. this will allow them to keep passengers and return to sailing. It also gives them your prepaid fares as an interest free loan. 

 

Cancel the bulk of what cruises ... for the next year or two????  This will be a challenge for more than the next few months. 

 

Not a disagreement of your costing thoughts but I will say for me personally, if I was left with a credit that would only cover a 4 day cruise replacement for a 7 day cost, the fare I paid them would move past a loan of my money to the point they could keep it but I can guarantee they wouldn't get any more.  When you have air travel to a cruise, a 4 day is not worth it, heck I don't even like 7 days so much anymore and opt for 10+.

Edited May 17, 2020 by poffles

[spanishguy1970]

On 5/14/2020 at 2:37 PM, tallnthensome said:

Oh, you know prices would jump. Everyone else would have to subsidize those other empty cabins and lost profit. 

I would imagine the " get yourself upgraded" banner will be put on hold for a while if that is the case.

[tallnthensome]

19 minutes ago, spanishguy1970 said:

I would imagine the " get yourself upgraded" banner will be put on hold for a while if that is the case.

True, I also read the thought being thrown around on a few news sites  is to only open balconies and up for bookings ..... This for the sake of passengers being able to get fresh air in case of quarantine and probably profits for the higher category room if they have to sail less than full at first. 

[mugtech]

5 hours ago, Travelling2Some said:

I have been wondering if the government might grant a temporary PVSA exception in the best interests of the Alaskan economy.  Alaskans are not only being hit with the loss of the summer cruise season but with oil prices tanking too at the same time.  If ships could be allowed to sail directly from Seattle to the Alaskan ports I could see that motivating the American government.  Some Canadian posters on CC have indicated that there was already significant anti-cruise sentiment in the Canadian ports even before COVID due to the poor environmental record of the industry and that they will be very reluctant to welcome cruise ships.   

It would appear that if a ship hits no foreign ports then the visas held by the crew would become a problem.  Think the current administration is going to ease restrictions on foreign workers?

[larry_s_taco]

23 hours ago, ECCruise said:

Can't be done legally.  PVSA.

Good point. Apparently technically they can do cruises to no where under PVSA, but they have to have special visas for each crew member. The visas are harder to get, and more expensive. I've seen speculation that these cruises would not be profitable  for the cruise lines since they would be responsible for paying for the visas under the PVSA.  

[npcl]

7 hours ago, tallnthensome said:

Yes, many hope they would get an exemption from that but like others have said, don’t expect much sympathy from our government and CDC to them right now. Sailing to their private islands and cruises to nowhere might be all they could start off with at the moment. 

They cannot do cruises to nowhere.  They require a different visa than normal if they are leaving out of the US because on such cruises they do not stop in any other country.  That is why the cruise lines stopped doing them when CBP changed the interpretation of the regulations.

[tallnthensome]

43 minutes ago, npcl said:

They cannot do cruises to nowhere.  They require a different visa than normal if they are leaving out of the US because on such cruises they do not stop in any other country.  That is why the cruise lines stopped doing them when CBP changed the interpretation of the regulations.

I know they can’t,  just a lot of people hoping they could if it meant cruises could happen. 

[All-ready2cruise]

1 hour ago, npcl said:

They cannot do cruises to nowhere.  They require a different visa than normal if they are leaving out of the US because on such cruises they do not stop in any other country.  That is why the cruise lines stopped doing them when CBP changed the interpretation of the regulations.

They may not be able now, however, I get the impression that some here think that exceptions could/should be made so that cruises would bypass the laws. 

 

Doubt that will happen but some can dream.  I just want things to get back to normal and people globally will stop being so adversely affected by this horrid virus.  

 

All the best to everyone and happy future cruising. 😉

Edited May 17, 2020 by All-ready2cruise

[scpirate]

On 5/14/2020 at 6:22 PM, tallnthensome said:

Probably not .... they would definitely want people on the ship buying drink packages, using specialty dining, taking ship shore excursions, gambling, shopping, etc. The last people the lines want are people that do the opposite of the above. Buy a cruise ticket and spend a total of $8.14  on board being super frugal . 

What's wrong with that? Last cruise we spent $15 on board and it was o.b.c..after you prepay everything and you are not on your first cruise what is there that I need to buy? I spent some money in the casino and I came out ahead by a few bucks.best I can do.last time I checked I didn't owe anybody anything.

[AFS1970]

5 hours ago, poffles said:

Cancel the bulk of what cruises ... for the next year or two????  This will be a challenge for more than the next few months. 

 

I meant the bulk of the already bought and paid for cruises as opposed to canceling half the bookings and sailing with the other luckier half. It would make more sense to cancel the whole cruise and let people use their credit to choose from the available 50% on the newly announced cruises.