Mandatory COVID Testing

[Ocean Boy]

39 minutes ago, jtwind said:

 

You've got and uphill battle disputing Harvard Medical School AND Johns Hopkins:  https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/testing-faq/overview

I didn't read anything there to contradict what I have said. Maybe you are focusing more on PCR testing which I agree has very little false positives. However, rapid testing at the ports has been the concern of this thread and the issue of false positives. Maybe this is where we keep differing?

 

I am in no battle with either Harvard or Johns Hopkins.... or with you for that matter.

[Ocean Boy]

12 minutes ago, jtwind said:

Here's some more info regarding the concern for showing up for a cruise, and being denied because of a false negative:

 

I think you mean because of false positives. Anyway you raise an interesting point. Most entities are advising againt retesting afer someone has bad documented Covid as they can continue to test positive long after recovery and are no longer contagious. I don't know how the cruise lines will react to someone who is recovered but still testing positive.

[Keksie]

If the cruise lines can come up with a set of protocols that satisfy the CDC and allow them to sail and they can find enough people to pay to follow those protocols I am all for it.  That may allow the cruise lines to stay afloat until the protocols are no longer needed and the rest of us can cruise again. 

[Biker19]

1 hour ago, jtwind said:

That's really not good for the cruise industry, correct?

For now, false positives are the bigger problem. One false positive shut down the entire small ship cursing industry for the season in Alaska this year.

[danv3]

9 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

I think you mean because of false positives. Anyway you raise an interesting point. Most entities are advising againt retesting afer someone has bad documented Covid as they can continue to test positive long after recovery and are no longer contagious. I don't know how the cruise lines will react to someone who is recovered but still testing positive.

 

I would have to guess that out of an abundance of caution the cruiseline will deny those people boarding.  There's too much at stake to let someone on the ship who "tests positive" even if there is reason to believe that they are recovered and won't/can't infect anyone else.  

 

Much easier to apply a black-and-white rule and err on the side of caution (especially where a big outbreak probably leads to another no-sail order and potentially bankruptcy).

[Ocean Boy]

9 minutes ago, danv3 said:

 

I would have to guess that out of an abundance of caution the cruiseline will deny those people boarding.  There's too much at stake to let someone on the ship who "tests positive" even if there is reason to believe that they are recovered and won't/can't infect anyone else.  

 

Much easier to apply a black-and-white rule and err on the side of caution (especially where a big outbreak probably leads to another no-sail order and potentially bankruptcy).

I completely agree with you.

[jtwind]

30 minutes ago, Ocean Boy said:

I think you mean because of false positives. Anyway you raise an interesting point. Most entities are advising againt retesting afer someone has bad documented Covid as they can continue to test positive long after recovery and are no longer contagious. I don't know how the cruise lines will react to someone who is recovered but still testing positive.

 

Thank you for the correction.

[jtwind]

19 minutes ago, danv3 said:

 

I would have to guess that out of an abundance of caution the cruiseline will deny those people boarding.  There's too much at stake to let someone on the ship who "tests positive" even if there is reason to believe that they are recovered and won't/can't infect anyone else.  

 

Much easier to apply a black-and-white rule and err on the side of caution (especially where a big outbreak probably leads to another no-sail order and potentially bankruptcy).

 

I also agree.  But if you test yourself a week or two before your cruise, and you come back positive, you can consider cancelling your trip earlier.  That would be especially important if the testing was to be done at the cruise terminal.

[jtwind]

25 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

For now, false positives are the bigger problem. One false positive shut down the entire small ship cursing industry for the season in Alaska this year.

 

Having a false positive shut down a cruise line doesn't make any sense.  But having a person who gets a false negative, and infects a handful of people on a ship, does.

[Biker19]

2 hours ago, jtwind said:

 

Having a false positive shut down a cruise line doesn't make any sense.  But having a person who gets a false negative, and infects a handful of people on a ship, does.

The former has happened, while we have no reports of the latter.

[ace2542]

2 hours ago, jtwind said:

 

I also agree.  But if you test yourself a week or two before your cruise, and you come back positive, you can consider cancelling your trip earlier.  That would be especially important if the testing was to be done at the cruise terminal.

If you test the cruise terminal doesn't that create a real risk that infection may spread in that period of time from arrival and test to test result and prior to boarding?. And if infection spreads from the boarding process won't that trigger an outbreak onboard?

[jtwind]

33 minutes ago, Biker19 said:

The former has happened, while we have no reports of the latter.

 

Right.  But does it make any sense to shut down a cruise for the season for a single FALSE positive?  We agree that it doesn't, right?

 

Even though the more likely scenario of a person with a false negative boarding a ship and spreading it among other folks on the ship may not have happened yet doesn't mean that it is better than a false alarm.  If it did happen, how would you know?  All cruises have been limited to 7 days, and the incubation period is pretty long.  

 

[jtwind]

25 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

If you test the cruise terminal doesn't that create a real risk that infection may spread in that period of time from arrival and test to test result and prior to boarding?. And if infection spreads from the boarding process won't that trigger an outbreak onboard?

 

There's no perfect answer.  There's no way to avoid eventually having a person with the virus boarding a ship.  IF you could do so, you wouldn't need the masks, distancing, temperature checks, and hand washing.  But they have those measures in place, and if they are carefully followed, they have a pretty good chance of avoiding a spread.

[Ocean Boy]

21 minutes ago, jtwind said:

  All cruises have been limited to 7 days, and the incubation period is pretty long.  

 

Anywhere from 2-14 days.

[molly361]

The only place that I have found around where I live that will guarantee results in 20 minutes and will test you without symptoms want $179 pp to do so.  Most places say 3 -5 days and like has been said before that is risky to me if needed within 5 days.

[ace2542]

2 hours ago, jtwind said:

 

There's no perfect answer.  There's no way to avoid eventually having a person with the virus boarding a ship.  IF you could do so, you wouldn't need the masks, distancing, temperature checks, and hand washing.  But they have those measures in place, and if they are carefully followed, they have a pretty good chance of avoiding a spread.

vaccination is the only way and will be the only way. Everyone will be required to show proof vaccine somehow this whole covid health passport thing which will log this info will be quite well used I think. No vaccine on the health passport no board end of story. No refunds either if a vaccine is available.

Edited October 11, 2020 by ace2542

[not-enough-cruising]

14 minutes ago, ace2542 said:

vaccination is the only way and will be the only way. Everyone will be required to show proof vaccine somehow this whole covid health passport thing which will log this info will be quite well used I think. No vaccine on the health passport no board end of story. No refunds either if a vaccine is available.

NEVER happen. We can’t consistently make any vaccine legally mandatory in this country, and you think you will be able to make this one mandatory AND a requirement to travel?? Nope 

[ace2542]

41 minutes ago, not-enough-cruising said:

NEVER happen. We can’t consistently make any vaccine legally mandatory in this country, and you think you will be able to make this one mandatory AND a requirement to travel?? Nope 

Mandatory of course not but as requirement for travel? Yes possibly. Are the cruise lines not within  their rights to determine their boarding protocols and write the need  for vaccination into the terms and conditions of the holiday?  Or are you saying that people could take the cruise lines to court if they tried it?

 

And besides I am sure few countries will make vaccine needed for entry and refuse entry or even criminally charge people who attempt to enter without vaccine.

Edited October 11, 2020 by ace2542

[time4u2go]

1 hour ago, not-enough-cruising said:

NEVER happen. We can’t consistently make any vaccine legally mandatory in this country, and you think you will be able to make this one mandatory AND a requirement to travel?? Nope 

It wouldn't be a law.  It would be a requirement imposed by the cruise line.  They do have existing health-related requirements.

Edited October 11, 2020 by time4u2go

[Dennis#1]

12 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

It wouldn't be a law.  It would be a requirement imposed by the cruise line.  They do have existing health-related requirements.

Agree.  Everyone will have a choice to cruise or not to cruise.  Cruise lines could make this a mandatory requirement if you want to cruise.

[not-enough-cruising]

50 minutes ago, time4u2go said:

It wouldn't be a law.  It would be a requirement imposed by the cruise line.  They do have existing health-related requirements.

Guess I got pulled off sides by the “health passport” term; made me think of a legal precedent. My bad 

[D C]

4 hours ago, ace2542 said:

Mandatory of course not but as requirement for travel? Yes possibly. Are the cruise lines not within  their rights to determine their boarding protocols and write the need  for vaccination into the terms and conditions of the holiday?  Or are you saying that people could take the cruise lines to court if they tried it?

 

And besides I am sure few countries will make vaccine needed for entry and refuse entry or even criminally charge people who attempt to enter without vaccine.

And then what?

Vaccines aren't 100% effective.  Even with 100% of the people on a ship having been vaccinated, there is still a real possibility of a passenger being infected.  

[Domino D]

3 minutes ago, D C said:

And then what?

Vaccines aren't 100% effective.  Even with 100% of the people on a ship having been vaccinated, there is still a real possibility of a passenger being infected.  

Yes, most vaccines are not a 100% effective.  They are not worried about "a passenger" getting it, they are worried about a large outbreak.  If one person on a ship came down with Covid and only one other person get infected from them, we would be cruising right now.  That is why noro never shut down the industry.  What the CDC is worried about is hundreds or thousands of people becoming ill (some not knowing they are) and then taking it back to their communities where thousands more get infected.  The vaccine dose not have to eradicate the virus, it just has to limit the number of infected.  

[Ourusualbeach]

8 minutes ago, D C said:

And then what?

Vaccines aren't 100% effective.  Even with 100% of the people on a ship having been vaccinated, there is still a real possibility of a passenger being infected.  

Correct, vaccines are not 100% effective however of those that still do contract the disease they usually suffer much milder symptoms.  Will a vaccine be the ending of Covid..no but it will reduce the number of infected people and fatalities to a number that is probably in line or less than the death rates for the flu and allow society to continue on with life fee of the current restrictions.

Edited October 12, 2020 by Ourusualbeach

[D C]

9 hours ago, Domino D said:

Yes, most vaccines are not a 100% effective.  They are not worried about "a passenger" getting it, they are worried about a large outbreak.  If one person on a ship came down with Covid and only one other person get infected from them, we would be cruising right now.  That is why noro never shut down the industry.  What the CDC is worried about is hundreds or thousands of people becoming ill (some not knowing they are) and then taking it back to their communities where thousands more get infected.  The vaccine dose not have to eradicate the virus, it just has to limit the number of infected.  

 

Right now, the CDC is acting as if one lone case on a ship is sufficient to shut down an industry. 

 

Florida is currently reporting 3000-4000 new cases per day. Any likely on board outbreak would be little more than noise in those figures.