CCL Stock Today

[elcuchio24]

Even though its pretty flat today even around some great industry news, just ike to point out to all the 'get ready for bankruptcy' people---the stock is up roughly 300% from a year ago. 300.

 

Still a good time to buy even today, if you're looking for the shares for OBC benefit. 

[TNcruising02]

The fluctuation has been good for trading too.  I agree that it's a good time to buy.

[elcuchio24]

7 minutes ago, TNcruising02 said:

The fluctuation has been good for trading too.  I agree that it's a good time to buy.

 

absolutely right on both counts 

 

[jfunk138]

Though I have quite a few shares of stock (mostly purchased at a much lower price), I don't share the same optimism at its current price.  It was trading in the low 40's in late 2019.  Since then it's been diluted TWICE.  Even if they went back to full capacity immediately, it's still only a low $30's stock.  Unlike Disney, they don't have a booming content empire to fall back on while travel is running at reduced capacity.  And let's face it, full capacity is a long way off.  Much of the crew has been sent home.  When bringing them back remember, the crew comes from countries where Covid is raging right now, so putting these people on a ship is going to be challenging.  

Assuming there's some variation of a vaccine requirement, 50% of their customer base is currently ineligible, with probably some ceiling around 30% (or more) of their previous base simply being ineligible as we approach peak "acceptance".

This is not a recipe for a return to old share price levels.

[SRQbeachgirl]

1 hour ago, elcuchio24 said:

Even though its pretty flat today even around some great industry news, just ike to point out to all the 'get ready for bankruptcy' people---the stock is up roughly 300% from a year ago. 300.

 

 

I'm feeling pretty good about getting in on the stock when it nosedived to under $9.  

[DarthGrady]

I bought in at under $9, so anything above that is good news for me. 

[bamaone]

11 minutes ago, DarthGrady said:

I bought in at under $9, so anything above that is good news for me. 

I picked up a hundred shares at $8.50. Unfortunately, I already owned a hundred at $44 so that puts my share cost at $26.25. 

[elcuchio24]

28 minutes ago, jfunk138 said:

Though I have quite a few shares of stock (mostly purchased at a much lower price), I don't share the same optimism at its current price.  It was trading in the low 40's in late 2019.  Since then it's been diluted TWICE.  Even if they went back to full capacity immediately, it's still only a low $30's stock.  Unlike Disney, they don't have a booming content empire to fall back on while travel is running at reduced capacity.  And let's face it, full capacity is a long way off.  Much of the crew has been sent home.  When bringing them back remember, the crew comes from countries where Covid is raging right now, so putting these people on a ship is going to be challenging.  

Assuming there's some variation of a vaccine requirement, 50% of their customer base is currently ineligible, with probably some ceiling around 30% (or more) of their previous base simply being ineligible as we approach peak "acceptance".

This is not a recipe for a return to old share price levels.

 

If your sale horizon is in the next 6 months you have some points. If its more than 24 months off I totally disagree. Stock will be over $50 a share by then. 

[scpirate]

2 hours ago, elcuchio24 said:

Even though its pretty flat today even around some great industry news, just ike to point out to all the 'get ready for bankruptcy' people---the stock is up roughly 300% from a year ago. 300.

 

Still a good time to buy even today, if you're looking for the shares for OBC benefit. 

Who's stock isn't up 300% from a year ago? Or anything else for that matter like lumber and ammo .you know important stuff.

[firefly333]

1 hour ago, elcuchio24 said:

 

If your sale horizon is in the next 6 months you have some points. If its more than 24 months off I totally disagree. Stock will be over $50 a share by then. 

Based on what? If 40s was old higher when ccl turned a profit AND paid a dividend. CEO says will take until 2023 to turn  around. Stock recently broke below support, but came back some to around support levels. What would make you think a much more diluted stock than it was in the 40s would go to 50?

 

If you are going to state such things, give some reasons. 

 

People are moving into oil, commodities, transports right now, safety as inflation is rearing its ugly head, 10 year hit new highs today in the past year anyway, big tech had good growth and earnings. Ccl been in a trading range lately. Good for in and out not for holding long. 50?

[IntrepidFromDC]

Prior to covid I had 400sh I bought at avg. $38.  March and April 2000, then again in the summer, I bought additional 1,400sh at avg. $11 (many @ $8.50, $9, $12, $14).  Recently I sold 500 just over $30, the main reason being the debt - as someone said earlier I don't see CCL going above $35 at least until debt is refinanced (what was the bond offering... 12%???)... plus the dilution of the stock...  Right now I'm a buyer under $25, seller over $30.

[asalligo]

I cannot predict what makes Carnival Stock rise and fall anymore. Certainly not news that indicates we might have a path to reopening. Last month Carnival stock shot up four dollars in a day supposedly over vaccine news and a desire of the public to get back to cruising and today with an actual path to being back on the water, nothing but drop.   

[IntrepidFromDC]

2 hours ago, elcuchio24 said:

 

If your sale horizon is in the next 6 months you have some points. If its more than 24 months off I totally disagree. Stock will be over $50 a share by then. 

I see three main headwinds and one tailwind regarding CCL returning to $50 a share.  The headwinds are formidable and likely to take more than 24 months to pass: 1) reinstatement of dividends at a rate sufficient to re-attract dividend investors (can't do that until demonstration of balance sheet improvement), 2) Maturity/refinance of hefty bonds (I think it was 12% coupon from memory, and they don't mature in 24 months), and 3) Major dilution in EPS due to shares outstanding going from 684,000 in February 2020 to a whopping 1,095,000 in February 2021 (so assuming the one tailwind - future earnings - returns to pre-covid levels in a few quarters, that same revenue and earnings equates to a much lower EPS, which will lead fundamental investors to shy away because the P/E will be lower due to the denominator being much higher).  Long, long road to $50.

Edited April 29, 2021 by IntrepidFromDC

[elcuchio24]

19 minutes ago, firefly333 said:

Based on what? If 40s was old higher when ccl turned a profit AND paid a dividend. CEO says will take until 2023 to turn  around. Stock recently broke below support, but came back some to around support levels. What would make you think a much more diluted stock than it was in the 40s would go to 50?

 

If you are going to state such things, give some reasons. 

 

People are moving into oil, commodities, transports right now, safety as inflation is rearing its ugly head, 10 year hit new highs today in the past year anyway, big tech had good growth and earnings. Ccl been in a trading range lately. Good for in and out not for holding long. 50?

 

forget about the future--see original post. 300% return in the past 12 months. 300. Please, double check my math. 

 

I gave reason to buy at 9 and many folks, including yourself, had similar arguments. 

 

[sfaaa]

Fortune always favors the bold. Plus shareholder OBC is a welcome bonus.

[elcuchio24]

4 minutes ago, IntrepidFromDC said:

I see three main headwinds and one tailwind regarding CCL returning to $50 a share.  The headwinds are formidable and likely to take more than 24 months to pass: 1) reinstatement of dividends at a rate sufficient to re-attract dividend investors (can't do that until demonstration of balance sheet improvement), 2) Maturity/refinance of hefty bonds (I think it was 12% coupon from memory, and they don't mature in 24 months), and 3) Major dilution in EPS due to shares outstanding going from 684,000 in February 2020 to a whopping 1,095,000 in February 2021 (so assuming the one headwind - future earnings - returns to pre-covid levels in a few quarters, that same revenue and earnings equates to a much lower EPS, which will lead fundamental investors to shy away because the P/E will be lower due to the denominator being much higher).  Long, long road to $50.

 

you are living in a logical, but outdated investment world. There has been more new money pressed into the market in the past 5 months than the past 12 YEARS. Check out that stat. The traditional P/E is no longer one you can compare to, nor is EPS. The people pressing money in right now dont even know what dilution is. Is that good? probably not. But, who cares, use it to profit. 

 

There will be sizable pops on reopen and again on earnings. I'm sitting on a 'boatload' of cruise stock and not intentions to even consider selling for likely another year unless things pivot significantly. 

[elcuchio24]

4 minutes ago, sfaaa said:

Fortune always favors the bold. Plus shareholder OBC is a welcome bonus.

 

'live in fear or profiteer' is a catchphrase myself and my investment partner coined about this time last year....:-)

[IntrepidFromDC]

1 minute ago, elcuchio24 said:

There will be sizable pops on reopen and again on earnings. I'm sitting on a 'boatload' of cruise stock and not intentions to even consider selling for likely another year unless things pivot significantly. 

Based on your logic, wouldn't you have expected a "pop" today based on the awesome return-to-sailing news?  What happened instead?  Why?  Eventually, everything reverts to fundamentals.  Eventually, most traders get frustrated enough to become investors.  For some it comes too late.

[IntrepidFromDC]

2 hours ago, SRQbeachgirl said:

 

I'm feeling pretty good about getting in on the stock when it nosedived to under $9.  

Aren't we all!  And also feeling good by not selling around $20.

[bitemyfly]

Me I’m buying doge at the next dip.. ccl , I will wait on ..

[elcuchio24]

4 minutes ago, IntrepidFromDC said:

Based on your logic, wouldn't you have expected a "pop" today based on the awesome return-to-sailing news?  What happened instead?  Why?  Eventually, everything reverts to fundamentals.  Eventually, most traders get frustrated enough to become investors.  For some it comes too late.

 

i certainly agree, and there was much money to be had in the past year of volatility. I think fundamentals, at least for the next year, dont have the juice they once did.

 

I find it VERY difficult to believe that a company with a $27 stock price (today) when it hasnt sailed for over a year will be WORTH LESS a year from now as they sail and book profit. Thats not a position I'm changing unless something extreme occurs. 

[bamaone]

1 minute ago, bitemyfly said:

Me I’m buying doge at the next dip.. ccl , I will wait on ..

I went with real long shots

23 mil Safemoon

1.7 bil  moonshot. 
(no that’s not dollars)

It’s like owning lottery tickets but more fun.

[IntrepidFromDC]

4 minutes ago, bamaone said:

I went with real long shots

23 mil Safemoon

1.7 bil  moonshot. 
(no that’s not dollars)

It’s like owning lottery tickets but more fun.

Hello, cruisecritic police, I'd like to report a threadjacking!  😁

[TNcruising02]

I bought Carnival last year at $27 and my intention was just to buy 100 shares for the OBC.  But man, I realized flipping was a great opportunity and caught the trading bug.  Even if you don't think the stock will be at $50 a couple of years from now, the fluctuation makes it profitable for trading. I also bought when it was a little over $8 and as high as $30 and still managed to make a nice profit flipping it for the past year.  If I had just stuck with my original 100 shares, I would have missed out on all of the fun.  This was the only good side to the pandemic, trading the travel stocks.

[firefly333]

26 minutes ago, elcuchio24 said:

 

forget about the future--see original post. 300% return in the past 12 months. 300. Please, double check my math. 

 

I gave reason to buy at 9 and many folks, including yourself, had similar arguments. 

 

I didnt buy at 9 but bought. How do you know when I bought ..though I went on record in dec that I sold all but 100 shares. Dont put words in my mouth if you cant back them up. 

 

You bought ccl and I bought ccl and oils. Sold ccl, kept the oils because they will turn around first and still pay dividends. Each to his own. 

 

As far as the headwinds to 50 posted above...someone says maybe in 12 months add back the dividend when the ceo says will take 2023 to turn around. They wouldnt add back a dividend to a company losing money. 

 

Lots made money at the bottom of the market, throw a dart gun. Going forward is the question. Tbh bought a ton of ccl, sold and bought a florida oceanfront condo so the money is spent. Would I buy now is the question. Possibly i warned at the bottom idk, i was in big and said so. Catching a falling knife is always tricky to time the bottom. 

 

The path is a lot clearer today. Ccl will be paying out those 600 obc into 2023 and giving away profits is what I dont like now. I suspect that's why ccl ceo says will take into 2023 to turn around.