Here's a scarey headline for CCL stockholders: Carnival Stock Could Fall to $0 in a Worst Case Scenario

[nini]

5 hours ago, cr8tiv1 said:

 

How could you ever utter those evil thoughts!  Let's get rid of the sphere. class...the royal class...and bring back the Pacific Princess and Golden.  Twilight zone thinking!  Sacrilegious....

 

 

Generally, I agree with most of your posts.

Geeez! We miss the Golden!

[caribill]

12 hours ago, Roberto256 said:

 

So, my whole $800 is at risk?

 

 

 

So,  if they go bankrupt but stay in business, will the 100 shares of worthless CCL stock you own still qualify you for the Stockholders OBC benefit?

[chengkp75]

22 hours ago, ontheweb said:

But this is what can happen after you file for bankruptcy.

 

From record-setter to rubbish: World’s biggest cruise ship to be scrapped without sailing a single voyage (msn.com)

As noted on your thread about this specific article, this is highly misleading.  What is being scrapped are hull blocks for an unassembled, just started building second "Global Dream" ship.  The nearly completed ship pictured in the article is up for sale as part of the liquidation of Genting Hong Kong.

[Ombud]

5 hours ago, nini said:

Geeez! We miss the Golden!

I'm on the Golden (now Pacific Adventure) in January. It's still owned by Carnival Corporation 

[Daniel A]

11 hours ago, icat2000 said:

What with the Henny Penny posting. There is still plenty of demand for cruising post COVID-19. Lots of stocks have taken a hit. I dare not look at my super fund cause its probably lost a lot of $$$ in the past couple of months. But then I'm in it for the long term as I'm not retiring for a least 10-15 years. If I was retiring in the next 12 months I would be a little bit sad.

The Henny Penny post was meant to say calm down, it's not the end of the world, or CCL.  It was just an acorn that fell.

[ontheweb]

1 hour ago, chengkp75 said:

As noted on your thread about this specific article, this is highly misleading.  What is being scrapped are hull blocks for an unassembled, just started building second "Global Dream" ship.  The nearly completed ship pictured in the article is up for sale as part of the liquidation of Genting Hong Kong.

My apologies for posting what turned out to be a misleading article. Thankfully there are those in the know who could correct the impression it gave.

 

I do believe The Points Guy is usually more reliable than this.

[chengkp75]

1 hour ago, ontheweb said:

My apologies for posting what turned out to be a misleading article. Thankfully there are those in the know who could correct the impression it gave.

 

I do believe The Points Guy is usually more reliable than this.

No worries, I just wanted to clear that up to this group as well.

[nini]

5 hours ago, Ombud said:

I'm on the Golden (now Pacific Adventure) in January. It's still owned by Carnival Corporation 

Sweet! Enjoy

[Astro Flyer]

4 hours ago, ontheweb said:

My apologies for posting what turned out to be a misleading article. Thankfully there are those in the know who could correct the impression it gave.

 

I do believe The Points Guy is usually more reliable than this.

This article better explains the situation & about how it’s a half finished keel, fixtures & engines that are for sale from Global Dream II and Global Dream is about 80% complete…sad.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/cruise-ship-genting-global-dream-scrapped-no-buyer-mv-werften-2022-6

 

“But the ship was designed for service in Asia, and a new owner would have to spend a significant amount of money redesigning its cabin, deck, and drive concept if they wanted to deploy it elsewhere in the world, An Bord said”.

 

Edited June 20, 2022 by Astro Flyer

[JeffElizabeth]

I really was expecting the cruise industry to be back to normal by now, but with inflation,  higher energy costs, and food supply issues I can see many people taking one more year off from cruising. The dedicated cruisers will still be on board but many will choose to stay home. Bankruptcy? Usually it is better for the creditors to keep the line going if they can see a light at the end of the tunnel but an expected recession after inflation might just make Carnival decide one or two cruise lines have to go. 

[Daniel A]

Of course, this is all mere speculation.  Let's just try to keep a good thought.  😇

[karatemom2]

14 hours ago, nini said:

Geeez! We miss the Golden!

 

I still can't believe they kept the Grand over the Golden. Travesty!

[deliver42]

I don't even look at the market now. Everything is down, and I doubt very much if bankruptcy is in the cards now.

[suzyed]

4 hours ago, karatemom2 said:

 

I still can't believe they kept the Grand over the Golden. Travesty!

And meanwhile the Crown is just limping along.

[Ombud]

5 hours ago, karatemom2 said:

 

I still can't believe they kept the Grand over the Golden. Travesty!

Carnival Corporation kept the Golden and Star. Those ships still have value and relatively few problems. Wasn't listen as part of the up to 25 vessels to go

 

23 gone from fleet. More will go. I'm still in the 'dump Crown' camp

Sold (not transferred within CCL):
1. Costa Atlantica -> CSSC 
2. Costa Mediterranea -> CSSC 
3. Costa neoRomantica -> Celestyal Cruises Experience 
4. HAL Amsterdam -> Fred Olsen Bolette 
5. HAL Rotterdam -> Fred Olsen Borealis 
6. HAL Maasdam -> Seajets Aegan Myths 
7. HAL Veendam -> Seajets Aegean Majesty 
8. P&O Oceana -> Seajets Queen of the Oceans 
9. POAU Pacific Aria -> Seajets 
10. POAU Pacific Dawn -> Ocean Builders MS Satoshi, now scrapped by them
11. Sea Princess > Sanya Int Cruise Charming
12. Sun Princess > Peace Boat Pacific World
13. Pacific Princess > Azamara

14. AIDAcascara

15. AIDAvita

Scrapped: 
16 Costa Victoria 
17. Carnival Fantasy
18. Carnival Inspiration 
19. Carnival Fascination 
20. Carnival Imagination 

21. Carnival Ecstasy 1991

22 - Carnival Sensation 1993

23 - (I missed 1)

 

And Saudis want all 6 Seabourne ships. 🤞they reach deal dumping massive amounts of debt

 

Edited June 21, 2022 by Ombud

[Guest ldtr]

On 6/18/2022 at 3:33 PM, seeyouinthesun said:

*opinion*

I feel Princess should be getting more from John Padgett than what they are getting. Sacrificing quality for quantity is a questionable tactic for running a premium line. The crew are saving the company as best they can and most likely will not be thanked by management for it.

*opinion*

Princess is not a premium line, it is a mass market lines, as is HAL, Celebrity, etc a little bit above the family oriented mass market lines like Royal and Carnival, but still mass market.

 

Premium tend to be lines like Viking, Oceania, etc

[Guest ldtr]

7 hours ago, karatemom2 said:

 

I still can't believe they kept the Grand over the Golden. Travesty!

Golden had more value to P&O.  Thus the decision to keep the Grand and transfer the Golden.

[Guest ldtr]

11 hours ago, JeffElizabeth said:

I really was expecting the cruise industry to be back to normal by now, but with inflation,  higher energy costs, and food supply issues I can see many people taking one more year off from cruising. The dedicated cruisers will still be on board but many will choose to stay home. Bankruptcy? Usually it is better for the creditors to keep the line going if they can see a light at the end of the tunnel but an expected recession after inflation might just make Carnival decide one or two cruise lines have to go. 

If they were to do a BK, I would expect it to be a restructuring, similar to what the airlines have done in the past.  Wipe out the shareholders, restructure the company and give the debt holders equity in the restructured company replacing the debt. In such a case they would keep the customers whole (no loss of deposits, FCCs, etc) Basically no real immediate impact to the customers, other than rightsizing the fleet for current demand.

 

All they would need to do is to convince the bond holders that they would have a profitable company after such a restructuring.

 

Very unlikely that you would see any kind of a liquidation type BK.

 

I am not expecting one in the near future (still too many uncertainties), but would not be surprised if one happened someday.

[Guest ldtr]

On 6/19/2022 at 5:43 PM, rbtan said:

I don't think CCL will go bankrupt. Far from it. They own so many lines. I'd be more concerned about NCL than Carnival corp. or Royal Caribbean group. This is the time the lines are going to get rid of older ships. I'm not sure how long the Grand class of Princess ships will remain in the fleet. We hope the Emerald at least stays till we do our Circle the Caribbean trip early in March. I feel that Princess is going for larger ships. The Royal class will soon be dwarfed by the new 175K ton ships that will be starting next year.

I do wonder what Emerald will be doing next Spring since they are replacing it with the Regal for the TA in April and the following British Isles cruises.  Got a letter about that a week ago.  Though no changes on the Princess web site yet (letter said that the changes would be made by July 16).

[rbtan]

17 hours ago, ldtr said:

If they were to do a BK, I would expect it to be a restructuring, similar to what the airlines have done in the past.  Wipe out the shareholders, restructure the company and give the debt holders equity in the restructured company replacing the debt. In such a case they would keep the customers whole (no loss of deposits, FCCs, etc) Basically no real immediate impact to the customers, other than rightsizing the fleet for current demand.

 

All they would need to do is to convince the bond holders that they would have a profitable company after such a restructuring.

 

Very unlikely that you would see any kind of a liquidation type BK.

 

I am not expecting one in the near future (still too many uncertainties), but would not be surprised if one happened someday.

Considering the Arinson(spelling?)family controls most of the CCL stock, I doubt they'll go under.

[Esprit]

4 minutes ago, rbtan said:

Considering the Arinson(spelling?)family controls most of the CCL stock, I doubt they'll go under.

Having met Mickey Arison at an AGM in 2009 I agree that CCL is unlikely to go under whilst he’s a major shareholder.

[Guest ldtr]

Just now, rbtan said:

Considering the Arinson(spelling?)family controls most of the CCL stock, I doubt they'll go under.

Last time I looked He  owned about 20% in various accounts.

 

Some of the Directors and Senior Management have been making some interesting insider trades over the last few months.

 

Keep in mind that during a restructuring there are ways for major shareholders to negotiate an advantaged position in the new company.  The structure of a company post BK is largely a matter of negotiation between the company and the debt holders.  if it comes down to a matter of the company not making enough to pay off its debts or to restructure, I am pretty sure that someone owning 20% of the voting shares could negotiate a favorable position in order to get their support for the deal.

 

I have seen BK's where senior management actually received larger stakes in the company post BK then they had in the company pre-BK as a result of deals to keep key members of the company and management  in place for a period of time during the process.

[rbtan]

17 hours ago, ldtr said:

Princess is not a premium line, it is a mass market lines, as is HAL, Celebrity, etc a little bit above the family oriented mass market lines like Royal and Carnival, but still mass market.

 

Premium tend to be lines like Viking, Oceania, etc

We love Oceania, but their prices at times are very similar to Princess. A CC minisuite on Princess is very similar in price to a standard balcony on Oceania. Size wise, a standard cabin on Oceania(Riviera & Marina) is pretty close to the same size. Food & quality of service on Oceania is leaps over what Princess offers. In their specialty rest. the beef is "Prime" grade, not  "Select" or lower in the Princess specialty rest. Only at the Chef's table or the Ultimate Balcony dinner do you see similar quality to Oceania. On Oceania outside of "Privee & Le Reserve" ALL specialty rest. are included in the fare. The entertainment on Princess is better overall, as Oceania's budget for food is the highest in the cruise industry.

[rbtan]

2 minutes ago, ldtr said:

Last time I looked He  owned about 20% in various accounts.

 

Some of the Directors and Senior Management have been making some interesting insider trades over the last few months.

 

Keep in mind that during a restructuring there are ways for major shareholders to negotiate an advantaged position in the new company.  The structure of a company post BK is largely a matter of negotiation between the company and the debt holders.  if it comes down to a matter of the company not making enough to pay off its debts or to restructure, I am pretty sure that someone owning 20% of the voting shares could negotiate a favorable position in order to get their support for the deal.

 

I have seen BK's where senior management actually received larger stakes in the company post BK then they had in the company pre-BK as a result of deals to keep key members of the company and management  in place for a period of time during the process.

It maybe 20% or so, but most of the "voting" power is with that family.

[Guest ldtr]

27 minutes ago, rbtan said:

It maybe 20% or so, but most of the "voting" power is with that family.

And exactly what is the mechanism that gives the family most of the voting power?

 

CCL only seems to have one class of stock (unlike companies like Meta that issued two classes to be voting power in the the founders hands).  The only real complexity is the linking of shares between the Carnival Corp and Carnival PLC (formerly known as P&O Princess PLC) which does not have an impact upon voting power.

 

The top 10 holders of stock (holding about 42%) as of the most recent filings are

Arison   12.28%

Vanguard 9.13%

Public Investment Fund  5.15%

Blackrock   5.14%

BB&T    3.72%

State Street   3.15%

Geode Capital  1.56%

Prime Cap  1.46%

Northern Trust  1.32%

Nuveen .97%

 

 

According to the last voting proxy AM has 10.7% of combined voting shares, so not anywhere close to a majority.

 

Edited June 21, 2022 by ldtr